Hi, China Watchers! Please join me in welcoming your guest host for this week, Melissa Chan, a correspondent formerly based in China and now in Germany, from where she reports on transnational issues, often involving China’s influence beyond its borders — from Berlin to Quito to the Amazon jungle. Over to you, Melissa. – Ben Pauker, world and national security editor.

We start with “genocide.” That’s what the Trump administration and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have labeled the mass detention and forced sterilization of Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in China’s far western region of Xinjiang. It’s a politically loaded, legally complex and narrative-shaping word — and at the U.N. Human Rights Council earlier this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hit back, stating “there has never been so-called genocide.” While some of the drama was reduced because diplomats video-conferenced in, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab demanded the body be given access to investigate reports of human rights abuses.

The U.N. council's meeting took place on Monday, the same day — as Wang must certainly have known when he spoke — that Canada’s legislature planned to vote on a non-binding motion confirming genocide in Xinjiang. The fact Prime Minister Justin Trudeau abstained from the vote, which passed 266-0, underscores how politically difficult it can be to label a top trading partner with such a crime. In Trudeau’s case, he has the additional dilemma of needing to free Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, who have essentially been held hostage by China the last two years.

“Human beings are not bartering chips,” Biden said, following this week's bilateral meeting with Trudeau. “We’re going to work together until we get their safe return.”

The same political challenge faces the EU, which has not and likely will not make a collective decision on the genocide charge.

On Wednesday, it was Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s turn to speak at the U.N. council, where he signaled the U.S.’s return to the body. While not addressing China or genocide directly, Blinken asserted that “those with the worst human rights records should not be members of this council.”

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

Here’s the tricky thing. In the U.S., State Department lawyers have determined the evidence points to crimes against humanity, falling short of genocide.

The Economist has also argued against the assignation of genocide. That’s led to push back — including from legal scholar Donald Clarke in a cogent rebuttal, and Elizabeth M. Lynch of China Law and Policy, who accuses the magazine of misogyny and ignoring “clear legal doctrine,” adding that “the systematic rape of women has repeatedly been found to constitute the physical element of genocide.” The legal debate is far from settled, however, meaning the genocide label will remain a controversial issue.

On Twitter, CNN’s Jake Tapper pulled no punches in linking to CNN’s report on gang rapes inside Xinjiang detention camps, saying that “the Chinese government is committing genocide against the Uighurs. Right now. We know where.” And Fareed Zakaria interviewed The Economist’s editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes on his program, where she appeared to back down — or at least reframe — the provocative piece, explaining that the magazine’s intent was to examine “whether it was helpful for the United States to declare it a genocide.”

China Watcher reached out to the hawkish Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), former co-chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. His spokeswoman responded, saying, “Senator Rubio strongly believes that for justice and accountability, we have to call atrocities by their proper names.” Arguing in favor of calling the situation genocide, she added that “there’s bipartisan consensus in Congress and now is the time for concrete action to end these horrific abuses.”

Sheena Greitens, associate professor at the University of Texas, Austin, was quick to point out that even a crimes against humanity designation puts China in the company of North Korea, and that “no one should read this as any kind of exoneration.”

Whether China's systematic repression of the Uighurs is deemed a "genocide" determines policy. It also puts social pressure on corporations — making it that much harder for them to do business with China when they have to engage with that label. Beijing might push back at the U.N., but if more governments decide it is carrying out genocide, it will be an indelible stain on China’s historical record. The question now is how much traction there’ll be in the coming months for other countries to place that label on China’s actions in Xinjiang.

CHANGING WITH THE TIMES: When your host first started reporting from Beijing in 2006, China watching was still the purview of a predominantly white group of experts. But that was starting to change, and among trailblazing reporters, there were Melinda Liu, Newsweek’s bureau chief, who was already on her second stint in China having served as the publication’s country correspondent in the 1980s, and veteran China hand Jaime FlorCruz, CNN’s bureau chief, who was previously with TIME. They were part of the firmament — and I felt part of another, exciting new wave of China explorers that included more ethnic Asians whose diverse family histories and experiences would contribute to deeper reporting and understanding of the country.

Things look even better today, and China watching is stronger for it. But challenges persist, as Joanna Chiu currently with The Toronto Star and China correspondent from 2014 to 2018, recalls: “I worked almost every evening and each weekend to claw my way up the ladder of respectability in the China experts' world.” Yet “time and again, I showed up to interesting events and seminars to see that every speaker on stage was a man.” Her experiences led her to co-found NüVoices, which among others things, provides a directory of more than 600 female China watchers. Reach out and discover new experts. Chiu, by the way, has a book out soon, China Unbound: A New World Disorder.

The formation of the Black China Caucus last year serves as a reminder, however, that the China watching community is far from true inclusion and that it needs to move beyond a paradigm that assumes successful representation after the inclusion of those of Chinese descent.

“Discourse on China,” BCC declares on its website, “has historically excluded and continues to exclude the voices of Black China professionals.” The organization offers its own directory of experts. “There IS diversity among China watchers,” BCC co-founder Keisha A. Brown, an assistant professor at Tennessee State University, tells China Watcher. But “the issue is that that diversity is not reflected in terms of coverage…. You have the same pool of people that get pulled over and over.”

BCC member Bryce C. Barros, analyst at the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund, who was mentioned in last week’s China Watcher for his piece advocating for a Black American ambassador to China, says diversity “can be someone like me who is Cape Verdean Black and Ashkenazi Jewish.”

Barros’s background includes spending time with the Taiwanese military, and in Beijing at Minzu University, which was established to educate minorities. I asked Barros whether his understanding of institutional racism as a Black American informs his views of the Chinese Communist Party's institutional racism. Barros agrees he might be more sensitive to “the systemic oppression of locking out non-Hans and women from key positions within the PRC and CCP leadership structures.” At Minzu University, he notes, “the university’s leadership is still overwhelmingly Han,” and that “having a system of schools similar to American HBCUs [historically black colleges and universities] … could not happen in China without strong oversight from the Party.”

These conversations reminded your host of Howard French’s evergreen essay in The Guardian published four years ago (but one that merits rereading every year). A former New York Times correspondent in China, Japan and West Africa, and current professor at Columbia’s journalism school, French writes about the “persistent problem of typecasting,” and how “the overwhelming whiteness of the media strongly but silently conditions how Americans understand their own country and the rest of the world.”

With his cross-continental experience, French wrote his groundbreaking book, China’s Second Continent: How a Million Migrants Are Building a New Empire in Africa. This rising China-Africa engagement he documents also means a new group of China scholars. Worth checking out include Daouda Cissé, an expert on China’s political economy and Bob Wekesa in South Africa who examines China-Africa relations. Both did their graduate studies in China. Alaba Ogunsanwo has also looked at decades of Nigeria-China relations.

Hopefully, this helps us all reflect not just on the value of pursuing diversity for diversity’s sake, but to see the genuine benefits when more voices contribute to our understanding of China. With that said, here are a few more China watchers from diverse backgrounds:

Barbados-based Rasheed J. Griffith produces the “China in the Caribbean” podcast. Natalia Cote Muñoz, who has just joined the State Department’s Office of Policy Planning, examines China-Latin America relations. Spanish journalist and investigator Juan Pablo Cardenal, who spent a decade in China and Asia, recently published this report from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation taking a closer look at the Chinese Communist Party’s outreach to political parties in Latin America. Check out investigative reporter and former legislator Martha Roldós in Ecuador: she’s not a Sinologist, but has done deep dives into China’s activities in her country. In Brazil, Oliver Stuenkel from the Getulio Vargas Foundation frequently writes about the country’s engagement with China. And correspondent Ananth Krishnan of The Hindu and author of India's China Challenge provides valuable perspective from the subcontinent (he also writes a newsletter).

A tech update from Protocol | China. Protocol | China, backed by Robert Allbritton, publisher of Protocol and POLITICO, tracks the intersection of technology and policy in the world's largest country. Sign up for the newsletter and learn more about Protocol’s research here. This week’s coverage includes a blockbuster first-person account from a tech worker who helped build ByteDance’s vast censorship apparatus and a look at why a major tech CEO is still obsessed with an obscure social media platform he built a generation ago. Plus, everything you need to know about the upcoming $40 billion IPO of Jingdong Logistics, which aims to be China’s Amazon.

Can you feel that schadenfreude from thousands of miles away? As Texas powered down following massive snowstorms and Americans burned furniture to stay warm, the Global Times, state media’s nationalist outlet, smugly suggested that “China's energy system would be able to cope with a similar situation and the world should reflect on such an incident.” At the regular Foreign Ministry briefing, spokeswoman Hua Chunying was equally self-congratulatory, saying the snowstorms “made us believe more strongly that China is on the right path. We are fully confident about our future.”

On Chinese social media, a professor at Peking University posted a video clip entitled, “Is this the US in decline?” — which included a mention of Colorado City, Texas, Mayor Tim Boyd’s “quit crying and looking for a handout” Facebook post. Boyd later resigned.

HONG KONG DEATH WATCH: Not a week goes by without the government chipping away at the territory’s open society. That seems to be their strategy now: Death by a thousand papercuts, none too splashy to make too many international headlines, but collectively transforming the city. Public broadcaster RTHK’s head has stepped down, and authorities have suggested more government supervision coming soon. Media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who stands accused of violating the new national security law, was once again refused bail. A top Beijing official hinted at impending electoral reforms that would ensure “patriots ruling Hong Kong.” And there were more arrests.

Legal scholar Alvin Cheung tells China Watcher, “The rapid recolonization of Hong Kong is the entirely predictable result of decades' worth of impunity for previous incursions into Hong Kong’s autonomy. The lesson of Hong Kong — one that certain analysts and policymakers seem reluctant to learn — is that the PRC cannot be trusted to abide by its international commitments."

TAIWAN WATCH

DEAL OR NO DEAL: When confirmation hearings are held today for Katherine Tai, President Joe Biden’s nominee for U.S. trade representative, her words will be listened to carefully 7.800 miles away — in Taiwan. Taipei has been pushing for a free-trade deal with the U.S. for years, going so far as easing restrictions on American pork and beef imports.

Despite meeting U.S. benchmarks, Taiwan was not rewarded with a deal because the U.S. did not want to antagonize Beijing, said Elizabeth Freund Larus, professor and department chair at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia.

Taiwan will be watching the hearing for any signals whether a trade deal might happen soon. Biden has indicated that his immediate priority is domestic at least during his first 100 days but Larus tells China Watcher contributor Shirley Martey Hargis that a trade deal is “definitely a possibility. It might be possible under Katherine Tai.”

Taiwan did get some good news in earlier confirmation hearings. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed support for Taipei, adding that the U.S. commitment to providing arms sales to Taiwan “will absolutely endure in a Biden administration.” He indicated that he would even “like to see Taiwan playing a greater role around the world … and the commitment to Taiwan is something that we hold to very strongly.”

Larus said she doesn't expect a lot of substantial movement in U.S.-Taiwan policy in a Biden administration. “If we look at U.S.-Taiwan policy over the decades, it has been remarkably consistent. I don’t think it’s going to change much because of the balance of military power and diplomatic and economic power have all shifted from Taiwan to mainland China,” she said.

— But Taiwan welcomes you! The Prague-based European Values Center for Security Policy is the latest organization to announce opening an office in Taipei, says its director, Jakub Janda. “We believe that European democracies can learn a lot from the experience of Taiwan defending itself from Chinese pressure.” This follows Germany’s Friedrich Naumann Foundation, which recently decamped from Hong Kong to Taipei, along with reporters of The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post who were ejected by Beijing in 2020. They join German state broadcaster Deutsche Welle (full disclosure, your host sometimes anchors there), which has had its East Asia operations in Taipei for a number of years — an oddity at the time, but increasingly a new norm.

China’s loss is Taiwan’s gain, and there are noticeably more datelines, stories and buzz out of Taiwan in the past year than at any time in recent memory.

Thanks to: Editor John Yearwood, Ben Pauker, Nadège Rolland, Deborah Brautigam, Hillel Neuer, Shirley Martey Hargis, Blake Hounshell, Luiza Ch. Savage and Matt Kaminski.

Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher? Email us at chinawatcher at politico dot com.