Most of the polling released over the final two weeks of the election shows Gianforte with small leads over Democrat Mike Cooney, the lieutenant governor. But those polls also show Gianforte has the highest negative ratings of any state politician, numbers that are giving Democrats hope of a win next week.

“Make no mistake. Greg Gianforte is not beloved by the Montana Republican Party, and that gives Cooney a real opportunity in this race. I can’t remember a less likeable politician in this state, or frankly any state I’ve worked in,” said Matt McKenna, a longtime Democratic strategist and adviser to Gov. Steve Bullock, who’s currently in a tight race to unseat GOP Sen. Steve Daines.

A Gianforte victory could mark a state-level Republican gain in a year when the GOP is struggling to retain control of the White House, the Senate and a number of state legislative chambers across the country.

Publicly, Republicans in the state say they’re confident Gianforte will win given the political polarization up and down the ballot this year. But some privately acknowledge that Gianforte is an unpopular candidate, even if his massive spending can help make up for that in the race.

Gianforte has donated thousands of dollars to Republican candidates across the state and used more than $7.5 million of his own money in his campaign to date, according to state campaign finance reports.

Meanwhile, his campaign is expected to shell out more than $6 million on advertising by Election Day, outspending Cooney’s campaign by a 3-to-1 margin, according to data from Advertising Analytics. Gianforte’s campaign has been putting money into ads since late January — he faced a competitive primary — while Cooney didn’t start spending until May.

The ad wars will ultimately add up to millions of dollars as Democratic and Republican outside groups have pumped millions of dollars into one of the only competitive governor’s races on the map this year.

Good Jobs Montana, a PAC tied to the Democratic Governors Association, has spent more than $10 million to boost Cooney, and Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction PAC has spent just under $9 million, according to Advertising Analytics.

“This is about name ID. Gianforte benefits from the fact voters know his name since he’s been on the ballot now in 2016, 2017 and 2018. It’s allowed him to build a brand over that period of time and remind folks he’s a Montana success story,” said Brock Lowrance, a GOP operative who has worked on Gianforte’s campaigns.

Some of the state’s traditional Republicans have been reluctant to embrace Gianforte publicly. His primary opponent, Secretary of State Tim Fox, has never endorsed him, previously arguing in the primary that Gianforte has used his money to “buy his way into office.”

But other Republicans argue Gianforte's business profile could be an asset after 16 consecutive years of Democratic governors. Prior to his political career, the GOP congressman and his wife founded Bozeman-based software firm, RightNow Technologies, which was later bought for more than $1.5 billion by software giant Oracle.

“Montana voters seem pretty hungry to have a different kind of leadership set. The outsider is a lot more appealing in this environment than someone who’s been in politics since Jimmy Carter was in office,” said Republican pollster Erik Iverson.

Since Gianforte lost to Bullock in 2016, he's won two statewide elections: a House special election in 2017 and the race for a full term in 2018. But both times he’s struggled to get 50 percent of the vote, winning with the lowest percentage of the vote of any successful Montana congressional candidate in more than 25 years.

Outside of his business career, Gianforte has made headlines for helping fund the creationist Dinosaur and Fossil Museum in Glendive, Mont., which presents humans and dinosaurs roaming the planet at the same time, contrary to all historical and scientific evidence. He’s also long had a negative relationship with the media after "bodyslamming" a reporter on the eve of his first election to Congress.

“There are people that aren’t happy with him, and they’re not sure what they’re going to do — even if they plan to vote for the president” or Daines, said Eric Raile, one of the political scientists at Montana State University that conducts the Treasure State Poll.

Raile said the governor’s race will ultimately come down to independent voters and turnout among younger Montanans. Montana has long been touted as reliably Republican, but the state has an independent streak. Republican presidential candidates usually win big, while down-ballot races are more competitive. Trump won by 20 points in 2016, but Gianforte still lost to Bullock by 4 points.

This year, Trump’s support in the state has eroded, though he is still the heavy favorite to win its three electoral votes. Three polls in late October, from Montana State University-Billings, New York Times/Siena College and Montana State University-Bozeman have either showed the race tied or given Gianforte a small lead, even with Trump ahead in all three surveys. The polls also show Bullock and Daines locked in a tight race for Senate, and another close contest to replace Gianforte in the House.

“There’s a visible switch against Trump and valid concern that it has downballot implications. You see it in Republicans nationally distancing themselves from Trump, but that hasn’t been evident in [Gianforte’s] campaign,” Raile said.

Cooney and state Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump’s decreased popularity in the state and the large number of independent voters in the state to come back and win.

In an interview, Cooney said he’s optimistic his pitch as a lifelong Montanan who will protect public lands and best handle the state’s public health response to coronavirus will help him win over independents. Montana has seen a surge in coronavirus cases in recent months. Gianforte, for his part, has been a proponent of relying on personal responsibility to limit the spread of Covid-19.

“There’s no question that my opponent is a uniquely disliked politician in Montana,” said Cooney. “And there’s a large group in the middle of independents — that’s where we have to win this thing.”