New Hampshire power brokers paralyzed by size of Democratic field
September 4, 2019MANCHESTER, N.H. — If the Democratic race has narrowed to three top candidates and everyone else, elected officials here haven’t gotten the message: Some 95 percent of them, from members of the statehouse down to town party chiefs, have yet to pick a horse.
Democratic presidential hopefuls are waging a fierce behind-the-scenes battle to get them off the sidelines — amid a prevailing sense that the first-in-the-nation primary is up for grabs. The jockeying is set to rev into overdrive Thursday through this weekend, when the entire Democratic field will descend on Manchester for the state party’s annual convention.
By this point in 2016, the state’s senior senator and governor were taking part in massive rallies for Hillary Clinton, and most of the state’s superdelegates were enthusiastically on board. Yes, this is a much different race. But the level of ambivalence — or insistence on seeing more from the field — is striking. And it speaks to the sentiment among political insiders that New Hampshire can’t afford to get it wrong this time.
“I have to forget about personal friendships,” said Bill Shaheen, a superdelegate who is married to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who is up for reelection next year. “I have to think who has the moxie to take on Trump.”
On a recent day in downtown Concord, the coffee shop across the street from the statehouse was teeming with Democratic campaign operatives meeting with potential endorsers. As that courtship drags out, campaigns have been forced to use young staffers to kick off traditional retail-politics events, instead of well-known headliners who can draw big crowds.
Joe Biden is the front-runner in New Hampshire, but polling of the state has been scant, and his lead is narrower than it is nationally. An early August survey by the Boston Globe and Suffolk University had him at 21 percent, Bernie Sanders at 17, Elizabeth Warren at 14 and Kamala Harris at 8.
Warren appears to lead the pack with 50 staffers in New Hampshire; Biden and Sanders have 45 each. Among lower-tier candidates, Cory Booker has hired 30 people, Beto O’Rourke 25 and Kamala Harris 20.
An unscientific survey of nearly two dozen New Hampshire Democratic insiders confirmed they’re overwhelmingly undecided in the primary. Only 2 of the 14 Democratic state senators and about 15 of 233 Democratic state representatives have backed a candidate among the 20 running.
“Four years ago, we were laughing at the Republicans” over the size of the GOP field, said Raymond Buckley, chairman of the state Democratic Party.
At a recent dinner party at the home of Rep. Annie Kuster, eight friends sat around a table to talk about the primary. The guests broke down the pros and cons of their favorite candidates but realized there was a stalemate, with each liking a different candidate.
Democratic campaigns are expected to spend a record-breaking amount of money on the state race: as much as $150 million, according to an estimate by the state party, based on the cost of previous primaries.
The battle for endorsements is already getting personal.
After Concord Mayor Jim Bouley endorsed Booker, for instance, at least one campaign reached out to national media outlets to point out he lobbies for 3M, a company involved in several lawsuits for allegedly tainting groundwater in the state. Bouley did not return a call for comment.
Former Gov. John Lynch, an early Biden supporter who left office in 2013 after four terms with a 70 percent approval rating, downplayed the importance of endorsements this cycle, predicting not even his will sway many voters.
“It's all about retail politics,” Lynch said. “People want to look them in the eye and ask them questions.”
Anecdotally, some New Hampshire pols have said candidates have showered less attention on them and the state than they’re accustomed to. Meeting the donor and polling qualifications for Democratic debates has forced candidates to spend more time on a national strategy, they said.
“By this point last cycle, I had had lunch or dinner with Gov. [Martin] O’Malley four times,” said Jay Surdukowski, an activist who made the maximum-allowed contribution to O’Rourke the day he announced his bid and skipped work to see him speak in Texas. “Beto knows who I am, but it’s not like he’s calling saying, ‘Hey how’s it going? What’s happening in New Hampshire today?’ He seems to really be doing a national thing now.”
Surdukowski said he’s been surprised to see people in their early 20s — instead of major political players — headlining candidate events like picnics and backyard rallies.
“I know the Beto folks are religiously meeting with people very quietly,” he said. “They’re also keeping channels open to people who have already endorsed other candidates. Who knows? Biden may stumble.”
The state’s nine superdelegates are staying out of the primary so far, too.
Sen. Shaheen has said she will remain neutral; her husband said he needs more time. Sen. Maggie Hassan, who as governor endorsed Hillary Clinton five months before the primary, said she may pick a candidate at some point, but not yet. The same is true for Kuster and Rep. Chris Pappas.
Former state party Chairwoman Kathy Sullivan is the only superdelegate not to be asked for an endorsement.
“No one has asked me to endorse, though there may be a good reason,” she said, pointing to some of her previous picks, such as Bruce Babbitt and Bob Kerrey.
Some candidates are getting creative with their courtship. At another dinner at the Kuster home, Booker heard one of the congresswoman’s sons was studying to get into law school.
“Cory said, ‘Let me do a video for him,’” Kuster said. “He grabs my phone and does this very funny and very genuine video about how hard exams are, but this will be worth it in the long run.”
Every presidential candidate is expected to attend the party’s convention. Campaigns hope being able to see all the candidates in one place will help make up minds. They want to sign up a trove of volunteers who can get to work evangelizing now that summer is over and more voters are starting to pay attention.
Tickets are still available to Saturday’s event, though the party declined to say how many have been sold. They have a high bar to meet: President Donald Trump set a record for attendance three weeks ago at the same arena, besting Elton John and WWE events with more than 11,500 people.
Source: https://www.politico.com/