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Arizona, U.S. Senate


U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Arizona on November 6, 2018. Sinema's victory was the closest U.S. Senate election in the state since former Sen. Barry Goldwater (R) won re-election to his third and final term by fewer than 10,000 votes over Democrat Bill Schulz in 1980.

Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R), who was first elected in 2012, did not seek re-election.

Angela Green (G) appeared on the ballot, but she withdrew from the race and endorsed Sinema on November 1, 2018.

A Democratic victory in this race was considered critical to the party potentially taking control of the chamber. "The Democratic path to a majority in the Senate is narrow and fraught, and if it exists at all, it runs through Arizona, a conservative state that last sent a Democrat to the upper chamber 30 years ago," The Hill reported.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

The race was rated a toss-up by three outlets. The open seat, the state's growing Latino population, and President Donald Trump's (R) four-point margin of victory in the 2016 presidential election made this a competitive election.

Polls

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Sinema Republican Party McSallyOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
November 2-3, 2018
N/A 48%49%3%+/-3.9631
Trafalgar Group
October 30-November 1, 2018
N/A 50%47%3%+/-2.12,166
Vox Populi Polling
October 27-30, 2018
N/A 52%48%0%+/-3.7677
Fox News
October 27-29, 2018
N/A 46%46%8%+/-3.5643
CNN/SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
N/A 51%47%2%+/-4.4702
HighGround Public Affairs
October 26-28, 2018
N/A 45%47%9%+/-4.9400
NBC News/Marist
October 23-27, 2018
N/A 50%44%6%+/-5.4506
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 17-26, 2018
N/A 46%48%6%+/-4.0799
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
October 22-23, 2018
N/A 45%52%3%+/-4.0600
AVERAGES 48.11% 47.56% 4.44% +/-3.99 791.56

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, September 10-October 26, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Sinema Republican Party McSallyOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
CBS News/YouGov
October 23-26, 2018
N/A 47%44%9%+/-4.1972
The New York Times/Siena College
October 15-19, 2018
N/A 46%48%6%+/-4.2606
Data Orbital
October 16-17, 2018
N/A 47%41%12%+/-4.0600
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
N/A 47%44%9%+/-3.6898
OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 Arizona
October 1-2, 2018
N/A 41%47%12%+/-4.0600
Fox News Poll
September 27-October 2, 2018
N/A 47%45%8%+/-3.5716
Suffolk University
September 27-30, 2018
N/A 45%42%13%+/-4.4500
Latino Decisions
September 10-25, 2018
Arizona State University 47%41%11%+/-3.5775
AVERAGES 45.88% 44% 10% +/-3.91 708.38

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, March 15-September 21, 2018

Poll Kyrsten Sinema (D) Martha McSally (R)Other/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Emerson
September 19-21, 2018
45%39%17%+/-4.4650
NBC News
September 16-20, 2018
48%45%7%+/-4.7564
CNN/SSRS
September 11-15, 2018
50%43%7%+/-4.3761
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 5-14, 2018
47%44%9%+/-3.51,016
Fox News
September 8-11, 2018
47%44%8%+/-3.5710
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
September 5-6, 2018
46%49%5%+/-4.0597
Gravis Marketing
September 5-7, 2018
48%49%3%+/-3.3882
Data Orbital
September 4-6, 2018
44%40%16%+/-4.2550
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
July 23-25, 2018
48%44%8%+/-4.0600
Gravis Marketing
June 27-July 2, 2018
43%39%18%+/-3.2925
Emerson
June 21-22, 2018
40%32%28%+/-4.0650
NBC News/Marist College
June 17-21, 2018
49%38%13%+/-4.5839
Axios/SurveyMonkey
April 2-23, 2018
51%42%7%+/-4.01,667
Public Policy Polling
March 15-16, 2018
46%41%13%+/-4.2547

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party $22,643,275 $24,735,383 $171,527 As of December 31, 2018
Martha McSally Republican Party $21,876,370 $20,952,576 $923,794 As of December 31, 2018
Angela Green Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Election history

2016

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 53.7% 1,359,267
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 1,031,245
Green Gary Swing 5.5% 138,634
N/A Write-in 0.1% 1,584
Total Votes 2,530,730
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Flake 49.2% 1,104,457
Democratic Richard Carmona 46.2% 1,036,542
Libertarian Marc Victor 4.6% 102,109
Independent Steven Watts (Write-in) 0% 290
Independent Don Manspeaker (Write-in) 0% 24
Total Votes 2,243,422
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona

ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Gender
Female:50.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).