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Kristi Noem (R) defeated Billie Sutton (D) and Kurt Evans (L) in the 2018 general election for governor of South Dakota.
Incumbent Dennis Daugaard (R) was prevented from running for election to a third term in 2018 due to term limits, leaving the seat open. He was last elected in 2014 by a margin of 45 percentage points. The Republican candidate had won each of the ten preceding gubernatorial elections. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 30 percentage points. Election forecasters predicted a close race; as of November 2018, two ratings agencies rated the race a toss-up and a third rated it Leans Republican.
Noem's victory preserved the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the election, South Dakota had been a Republican trifecta since Republicans gained a majority in the state senate in 1995. The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under state law, the governor may veto state legislative district maps proposed by the state legislature.
South Dakota was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Governor of South Dakota, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Kristi Noem (R) | Billie Sutton (D) | Kurt Evans (L) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy (October 29-31, 2018) | The Argus Leader KELO TV | 47% | 44% | 1% | 8% | +/-4.5 | 500 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy (October 18-22, 2018) | The Argus Leader KELO TV | 45% | 45% | 1% | 9% | +/-4.5 | 500 |
| Anzalone Lizst Grove Research (September 20-24, 2018) | The Sutton campaign | 42% | 45% | 3% | 10% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Anzalone Lizst Grove Research (July 19-25, 2018) | The Sutton campaign | 46% | 42% | 0% | 13% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
Race ratings: South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean Republican | Lean Republican |
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of South Dakota, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Dennis Daugaard/Matthew Michels Incumbent |
70.5% | 195,477 | |
| Democratic | Susan Wismer/Susan Blake | 25.4% | 70,549 | |
| Indpendent | Mike Myers/Lora Hubbel | 4.1% | 11,377 | |
| Total Votes | 277,403 | |||
| Election results via South Dakota Secretary of State | ||||
On November 2, 2010, Dennis Daugaard/Matt Michels won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of South Dakota. They defeated Scott Heidepriem/Ben Arndt in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Governor of South Dakota, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dennis Daugaard/Matt Michels |
61.5% | 195,046 | |
| Democratic | Scott Heidepriem/Ben Arndt | 38.5% | 122,037 | |
| Total Votes | 317,083 | |||
| Election results via South Dakota Secretary of State. | ||||
On November 7, 2006, Mike Rounds/Dennis Daugaard won re-election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of South Dakota. They defeated Jack Billion/Eric Abrahamson, Steven J. Willis/Larry Johnsen and Tom Gerber/Bette Rose Ryan in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Governor of South Dakota, 2006
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Rounds/Dennis Daugaard Incumbent |
61.7% | 206,990 | |
| Democratic | Jack Billion/Eric Abrahamson | 36.1% | 121,226 | |
| Constitution | Steven J. Willis/Larry Johnsen | 1.2% | 4,010 | |
| Libertarian | Tom Gerber/Bette Rose Ryan | 1% | 3,282 | |
| Total Votes | 335,508 | |||
| Election results via South Dakota Secretary of State. | ||||
On November 5, 2002, Mike Rounds/Dennis Daugaard won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of South Dakota. They defeated Jim Abbott/Mike Wilson, James P. Carlson/Ron Bosch and Nathan A. Barton/Eric Risty in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Governor of South Dakota, 2002
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Rounds/Dennis Daugaard |
56.8% | 189,920 | |
| Democratic | Jim Abbott/Mike Wilson | 41.9% | 140,263 | |
| Independent | James P. Carlson/Ron Bosch | 0.7% | 2,393 | |
| Libertarian | Nathan A. Barton/Eric Risty | 0.6% | 1,983 | |
| Total Votes | 334,559 | |||
| Election results via South Dakota Secretary of State. | ||||
Demographic data for South Dakota
| South Dakota | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 857,919 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 75,811 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 49.8% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 85% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 1.6% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 8.6% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.6% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 3.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 90.9% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $50,957 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15.3% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in South Dakota. | ||
As of July 2016, South Dakota's three largest cities were Sioux Falls (pop. est. 177,000), Rapid City (pop. est. 74,000), and Aberdeen (pop. est. 28,000).
