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Georgia, Governor

Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) defeated former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Ted Metz (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Georgia's governorship.

Heading into the election, Georgia had been a Republican trifecta since 2004 when Republicans won control of the Georgia House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the governorship and the Georgia State Senate in 2002. Prior to 2002, Democrats had won every Georgia gubernatorial race since the Reconstruction era following the Civil War. Georgia maintained its Republican trifecta status in 2018.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Georgia state law, the Georgia General Assembly is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.

Kemp replaced term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R), who defeated former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) in 2010 by 10 percentage points and defeated state Sen. Jason Carter (D) in 2014 by 7.9 percentage points. Heading into the election, forecasters said the race was a toss-up or slightly favored Republicans. Abrams was the first black woman to secure a major party gubernatorial nomination in U.S. history and the first woman of any race to do so in Georgia history.

With three candidates on the ballot, it was possible that no candidate would receive more than 50 percent of the vote on November 6. The top-two finishers would have competed in a runoff election on December 4, 2018. The last general election runoff for a major statewide Georgia race was the 2008 Senate election where U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) defeated challenger Jim Martin (D) 58 percent to 42 percent in the runoff. As of 2018, there had never been a runoff election for Georgia governor. As of 2018, Georgia and Louisiana were the only states to hold general election runoffs.

Georgia was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.

Polls

Georgia Governor election, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Brian Kemp (R) Stacey Abrams (D)Ted Metz (L)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
20-20 Insights
(October 31-November 2, 2018)
Southern Majority 46%50%1%3%+/-4.0614
The Trafalgar Group
(October 30-November 3, 2018)
N/A 50%36%2%12%+/-2.12,171
Cygnal
(October 28-30, 2018)
N/A 49%47%4%0%+/-4.36504
University of Georgia
(October 28-30, 2018)
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News 47%47%2%5%+/-3.01,091
Opinion Savvy
(October 28-30, 2018)
Fox 5 Atlanta 47%48%2%3%+/-3.9623
Opinion Savvy
(October 21-22, 2018)
N/A 48%48%1%3%+/-3.4824
Marist University
(October 14-18, 2018)
NBC News 46%45%4%5%+/-4.8554
Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics
(October 4-11, 2018)
N/A 47%46%2%5%+/-3.41,088
University of Georgia
(September 30-October 9, 2018)
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News 48%46%2%4%+/-2.81,232
Public Policy Polling
(October 5-6, 2018)
Georgia Engaged 46%46%0%7%+/-4.0729
SurveyUSA
(October 3-8, 2018)
11 Alive News 47%45%2%6%+/-4.0655
Landmark Communications
September 2018
Landmark Communications 48%46%2%3%+/-3.2964
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
(September 17-20, 2018)
Stacey Abrams for Governor 42%48%3%7%+/-4.1603
University of Georgia
(August 26 - September 4, 2018)
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News 45%45%2%8%+/-3.11,020
AVERAGES 46.86% 45.93% 2.07% 5.07% +/-3.58 905.14

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up

State election history

2014

Governor of Georgia, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngNathan Deal Incumbent 52.7% 1,345,237
Democratic Jason Carter 44.9% 1,144,794
Libertarian Andrew Hunt 2.4% 60,185
Total Votes 2,550,216
Election results via Georgia Secretary of State

2010

Governor of Georgia, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Roy E. Barnes 43% 1,107,011
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngNathan Deal 53% 1,365,832
Libertarian John H. Monds 4% 103,194
NA Write-in 0% 124
Total Votes 2,576,161

Demographics

Demographic data for Georgia

GeorgiaU.S.
Total population:10,199,398316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):57,5133,531,905
Gender
Female:51.2%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:60.2%73.6%
Black/African American:30.9%12.6%
Asian:3.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:9.1%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:28.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,620$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.1%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Georgia.

As of July 2017, Georgia's three largest cities were Atlanta (pop. est. 470,000), Columbus (pop. est. 200,000), and Augusta (pop. est. 200,000).