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Wisconsin, Governor

Tony Evers (D) defeated incumbent Scott Walker (R) and four other candidates in the 2018 general election for governor of Wisconsin.

Heading into the 2018 race, Walker had last been elected in 2014, winning a second term by a margin of 6 percentage points. Since the introduction of four-year terms for governors of Wisconsin in a 1967 constitutional amendment, the only governor to win election to more than two consecutive terms was Tommy Thompson (R), who was elected in 1986 and was re-elected in 1990, 1994, and 1998. The last election in which an elected governor seeking re-election was defeated was in 1986, when Thompson unseated Tony Earl (D). Of the state's past 10 gubernatorial elections, five resulted in partisan control of the seat flipping.

Evers' victory broke the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the election, Wisconsin had been a Republican trifecta since Walker took office and Republicans gained majorities in both chambers of the state legislature in 2011. The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Wisconsin state law, the governor may veto congressional and state legislative district lines proposed by the state legislature. Evers' victory marks the fifth time in state history that a Democratic governor will preside over redistricting.

Third party and independent candidates included Phillip Anderson (L), Arnie Enz (The Wisconsin Party), Maggie Turnbull (I), and Michael White (G).

Wisconsin was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.


Polls

Wisconsin governor, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Tony Evers (D) Scott Walker (R)Phillip Anderson (L)Michael White (G)Maggie Turnbull (I)Arnie Enz (I)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Emerson College
(October 29-31, 2018)
N/A 51%46%0%0%0%0%1%+/-4.1604
Marquette University Law School
(October 24-28, 2018)
N/A 47%47%3%0%0%0%1%+/-3.21,154
Ipsos
(October 12-18, 2018)
Thomson Reuters/University of Virginia 48%45%0%0%0%0%7%+/-3.01,193
Marquette University Law School
(October 3-7, 2018)
N/A 46%47%5%0%0%0%1%+/-3.9799
Marist College
(September 30 - October 3, 2018)
NBC News 52%43%0%0%0%0%4%+/-4.1781
AVERAGES 48.8% 45.6% 1.6% 0% 0% 0% 2.8% +/-3.66 906.2

Wisconsin governor, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Tony Evers (D) Scott Walker (R)Phillip Anderson (L)Michael White (G)Maggie Turnbull (I)Arnie Enz (I)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Ipsos
(September 14-21, 2018)
Thomson Reuters/University of Virginia 50%43%0%0%0%0%7%+/-3.41,109
Marquette Law School
(September 12-16, 2018)
N/A 49%44%6%0%0%0%2%+/-4.4614
Public Policy Polling
(September 4-5, 2018)
High Ground Action Fund 49%45%2%0%0%0%6%+/-4.0726
Suffolk University
(August 18-24, 2018)
N/A 46%44%2%0%0%1%7%+/-4.4500
Marquette University Law School
(August 15-19, 2018)
N/A 46%46%5%0%0%0%3%+/-4.5601
Public Policy Polling
(August 15-16, 2018)
The Evers campaign 49%44%0%0%0%0%7%+/-4.0600
AVERAGES 48.17% 44.33% 2.5% 0% 0% 0.17% 5.33% +/-4.12 691.67

Wisconsin governor 2018, hypothetical general election matchup

Poll Tony Evers (D) Scott Walker (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Emerson College
(July 26-28)
48%41%7%+/-4.2632
NBC News/Marist Poll
(July 15-19)
54%41%5%+/-3.8906
Marquette University
(June 13-17)
44%48%8%+/-4.0800
AVERAGES 48.67% 43.33% 6.67% +/-4 779.33

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up

Election history

2014

Republican incumbent Scott Walker won re-election on November 4, 2014.

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch Incumbent 52.3% 1,259,706
Democrat Mary Burke/John Lehman 46.6% 1,122,913
Libertarian Robert Burke/Joseph Brost 0.8% 18,720
Independent Dennis Fehr 0.3% 7,530
Nonpartisan Scattering 0.1% 1,248
Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0% 200
Total Votes 2,410,317
Election results via Wisconsin Government Accountability Board

2012

Scott Walker defeated Tom Barrett (D) and Hariprasad "Hari" Trivedi (I) in a recall election on June 5, 2012. A primary took place on May 8. While governors and lieutenant governors normally run on a joint ticket in Wisconsin, there is a separate set of rules for a recall. Each official must be recalled separately and face a separate recall election.

Recall of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Walker Incumbent 53.1% 1,335,585
Democratic Tom Barrett 46.3% 1,164,480
Independent Hari Trivedi 0.6% 14,463
Scattering - 0.1% 1,537
Total Votes 2,516,065
Election results via Wisconsin Government Accountability Board

2010

On November 2, 2010, Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch won election to the office of Wisconsin Governor/Lt. Governor. They defeated Tom Barrett/Tom Nelson (D) and six third-party candidates in the general election.

Wisconsin Governor/Lt. Governor, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch 52.2% 1,128,941
Democratic Tom Barrett/Tom Nelson 46.5% 1,004,303
Independent Jim Langer/No candidate 0.5% 10,608
Libertarian No candidate/Terry Virgil 0.3% 6,790
Common Sense James James/No candidate 0.4% 8,273
Independent Leslie Ervin Smetak/David Myron Smetak 0% 19
Independent Patricia Messici/No candidate 0% 22
Independent Hari Trivedi/No candidate 0% 18
Scattering Various 0.1% 1,858
Total Votes 2,160,832
Election results via Wisconsin Government Accountability Board.

2006

On November 7, 2006, Jim Doyle/Barbara C. Lawton won re-election to the office of Wisconsin Governor/Lt. Governor. They defeated Mark Green/Jean Hundertmark (R) and Nelson Eisman/Leon Todd (G) in the general election.

Wisconsin Governor/Lt. Governor, 2006

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJim Doyle/Barbara C. Lawton Incumbent 52.7% 1,139,115
Republican Mark Green/Jean Hundertmark 45.3% 979,427
Green Nelson Eisman/Leon Todd 1.9% 40,709
Scattering Various 0.1% 2,449
Total Votes 2,161,700
Election results via Wisconsin State Elections Board.

2002

On November 5, 2002, Jim Doyle/Barbara C. Lawton won election to the office of Wisconsin Governor/Lt. Governor. They defeated Scott McCallum/M.A. Farrow (D) and six third-party challengers in the general election.

Wisconsin Governor/Lt. Governor, 2002

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJim Doyle/Barbara C. Lawton 46.1% 800,515
Republican Scott McCallum/M.A. Farrow Incumbent 42.3% 734,779
Green Jim Young/Jeff Peterson 0.3% 4,411
Libertarian Ed Thompson/M. Reynolds 10.7% 185,455
Independent Alan D. Eisenberg 0.2% 2,847
Independent Ty A. Bollerud 0.2% 2,637
Independent Mike Mangan 0.1% 1,710
Independent Aneb Jah Rasta 0.1% 929
Scattering Various 0.1% 2,366
Total Votes 1,735,649
Election results via Wisconsin State Election Board.

Demographics

Demographic data for Wisconsin

WisconsinU.S.
Total population:5,767,891316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):54,1583,531,905
Gender
Female:50.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:86.5%73.6%
Black/African American:6.3%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:0.9%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,357$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin.

As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).