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WILD BEAR — The eyes of the world are fixed this morning on Russia, where a long-running feud between military leaders in President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s government and YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, has transformed into the country’s most dramatic domestic upheaval in 30 years.

The situation is fast moving, and like anything in Russia, full of unreliable narrators. But here’s what we know:

• Prigozhin has threatened to lead a “march of justice” after accusing the Russian military of targeting Wagner troops in missile strikes. His troops have reportedly taken control of a key regional military center in Rostov-on-Don, a city near the Ukrainian front.
• Wagner forces appear to be on the move north toward Moscow, with fighting reported in Voronezh, a regional capital about 320 miles south. Prigozhin claims 25,000 troops under his control, and he is calling on Russian army forces to join him.
• In a televised address this morning, Putin called Prigozhin a traitor and threatened “inevitable punishment,” comparing the uprising to the 1917 revolution. Prigozhin responded with defiance on his Telegram channel, claiming broad public support.
• A civil crackdown appears to be underway, with Putin issuing martial-law orders and Russian officials warning citizens not to share information not approved by state organs. Some public venues in Moscow have been locked down, according to local reports.
• Western officials are watching carefully but not saying much. The British Defense Ministry said the unrest “represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.” Follow the POLITICO Europe live blog

The stakes … “The insurrection dramatically escalates the stakes in Moscow’s 16-month-old war on Ukraine, and creates a significant headache for Putin, just as Ukrainian forces are looking for opportunities to push through Russian defensive lines in a long-awaited counteroffensive,” our colleagues, Douglas Busvine, Gabriel Gavin and Zoya Sheftalovich in Europe write.

The homefront … President JOE BIDEN has been briefed, and NSC Spokesman ADAM HODGE told Playbook in a statement, “We are monitoring the situation and are consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN participated in a virtual meeting of G-7 foreign ministers, saying afterward the U.S. “will stay in close coordination with allies and partners as the situation continues to develop.”

Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee said they “are closely monitoring what appears to be a significant internal conflict among Russian forces” and “are in touch with the Intelligence Community and Administration as this situation unfolds.” (via CNN’s Zachary Cohen)

Related reads: POLITICO: “Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?” … NYT: “Putin Vows ‘Decisive Actions’ as Wagner Chief Claims Part of Key Military Complex” … WaPo: “Wagner mercenary boss faces arrest over ‘incitement to armed rebellion’” … The Atlantic: “Russia Slides Into Civil War”

ONE YEAR LATER — Today is the first anniversary of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned a national right to abortion and threw the political world into upheaval.

The milestone will be marked through a split screen: The political right has struggled to unite around next steps after winning the five-decade fight to reverse Roe v. Wade, which is playing out this weekend at the Faith and Freedom Coalition evangelical conference in Washington (more on that in a moment).

Democrats, meanwhile, are as galvanized as ever, holding events and speeches through the week to mark the anniversary and highlight the impacts of the decision — culminating in the reelection endorsement yesterday of Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS by three top abortion rights groups.

Harris is traveling today to North Carolina, where she will continue her role as point woman on abortion rights in a speech, we’re told, that will contain themes we’ve seen and heard from her over the last year: calling out “extremists” and pushing on Congress to pass a bill codifying Roe’s protections.

Some excerpts from her prepared remarks:

• On the GOP: “Extremist Republicans in Congress have proposed to ban abortion nationwide. Nationwide. But I have news for them: We’re not having that. Americans believe in freedom. And we will not allow you to destroy our most basic rights and principles.”
• On state abortion crackdowns: “[O]ver the past 365 days, the women of our nation have suffered under the consequences of these laws. In addition to the taking of rights, these laws have created chaos, confusion, and fear. There are women in our country who have been denied care when their lives and health are at risk.”

As for Republicans, the reaction to Dobbs continues to be all over the map. Our colleagues Sally Goldenberg, Adam Wren and Natalie Allison take a swing this morning at how abortion is playing out in the 2024 presidential primary, concluding that Republican candidates have calculated that the best way to talk about the issue is to “dodge the specifics.”

The various approaches range from MIKE PENCE’s embrace of a national abortion ban to CHRIS CHRISTIE’s leave-it-to-the states approach, with plenty of wavering and waffling and equivocating in between.

And then there’s frontrunner DONALD TRUMP, who “despite heavy lobbying from anti-abortion rights activists for a 15-week ban, has kept his answers vague,” the trio reports.

That might change tonight, when Trump headlines the closing gala dinner for the Faith and Freedom Coalition conference. We messaged a Trump aide this morning to see what he was planning, and we’re told the former president will not only tout his “accomplishments on protecting life in his first term in office” but offer “specific plans to continue protecting life in his second term in office.”

— Other Trump speech previews: “Saving childhood education in America and keeping men out of women’s sports” … “a Day One Executive Order ending Automatic Citizenship for the children of illegal aliens” … threatening China with “tariffs unlike anything they’ve ever seen” unless they abandon plans for an outpost in Cuba … “Highlighting Biden corruption”

Still, there’s not much evidence Trump is under pressure to toughen his anti-abortion rhetoric. Natalie and Meridith McGraw reported yesterday from the conference that “Trump remains … the main draw at evangelical conferences like these,” noting that he is not only getting the confab’s prime speaking slot but that one of Friday’s biggest applause lines came “when North Carolina Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON endorsed Trump from the stage.”

More Dobbs anniversary reads:

• “The Supreme Court dramatically changed public opinion on abortion,” by Steven Shepard
• “Florida provided far more abortions than California and New York post-Dobbs. Here’s why,” by Rachel Bluth, Maya Kaufman and Sejal Govindarao
• “What a Year in Post-Roe America Reveals About Abortion,” by WSJ’s Laura Kusisto
• “Biden Warns That Republicans Are Not Finished on Abortion,” by NYT’s Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs
• “‘The Impossible Became Possible’: The Women Celebrating a Year Without Roe,” by NYT’s Ruth Graham

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. LEAK-PROOF: U.S. intel agencies noticed yesterday that there is “no evidence a Chinese laboratory at the center of the debate over Covid-19’s origins conducted genetic engineering on viruses related to the one that caused the pandemic, or held such viruses in its stockpiles before the 2019 outbreak,” WSJ’s Warren Strobel and Michael Gordon write. However, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence “remains unable to pinpoint the pandemic’s origins, with spy agencies divided on whether the virus passed to humans via an infected animal or a laboratory accident.” Read the report

2. CONGRESSIONAL CONUNDRUM: The Senate likes to bill itself as the “world’s greatest deliberative body,” and while that may have been true at one point, the members aren’t acting like it these days, WaPo’s Paul Kane writes in a sharp analysis. The chamber is “voting less often and taking longer to hold those roll calls, while debating the issues far less often,” PK writes. “The topic of drawn-out votes often generates a shoulder shrug from leadership, as if it’s both a longtime tradition that just can’t be fixed and, besides, it’s really a petty concern. But the protracted pace is an entirely new phenomenon and, as every first-year senator learns, time is senators’ single biggest commodity.”

By the numbers: “This year, senators have engaged in less than 60 hours of debate during the 118th Congress — less than 14 percent of their time on the floor. Conversely, the time it takes to hold votes has soared in recent years, from just 85 hours as of late June 2017 to 148 hours through the middle of this week, according to Browning.”

3. PALMETTO PRIMARY: As Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) and NIKKI HALEY carve out their lanes in the 2024 GOP presidential field, a “sharp exchange” between two of the nonwhite candidates among the crowd “captures how diverging perceptions about racial inequity have emerged as a central fault line between the Republican and Democratic coalitions,” The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein writes. “One of the core beliefs that binds the modern GOP coalition is rejection of the idea that minorities and women face structural bias in American society.”

4. COMING UP ROSENDALE: Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) is planning to launch a bid to unseat Montana Democratic Sen. JON TESTER, Ally Mutnick and Burgess Everett report — a jolt in a key race that’s bound to revive the GOP’s long-running battle over electability. While Rosendale’s timeline is unclear, a run would set him against Senate GOP leaders who are working to recruit a fresh face for the contest, presaging a brutal primary that could bruise the party’s chances of taking down one of their top targets in Tester.

5. YES BACKSIES: House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY told reporters yesterday that he supports a conservative effort to expunge the impeachments of former President DONALD TRUMP, CBS’ Scott MacFarlane and Ellis Kim write. The push, led by Reps. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) is through a largely ceremonial declaration in the House that would amount to nothing more than a messaging tool. McCarthy said the resolutions “would be referred to House committees and did not give an estimated timetable for their consideration.”

6. PUTTING A LABEL ON IT: As Democrats continue to wring their collective hands over a potential “unity” ticket run backed by No Labels, Mother Jones’ David Corn and Russ Choma got their hands on a list of donors that have recently backed the political organization, finding that the names fall along both sides of the aisle. “Generally, these No Labels supporters, who mostly made contributions of $5,600 to its 2024 project, appear to favor conservative candidates, though many have played both sides of the aisle, financing Republican and Democratic politicians.”

7. TRIAL BALLOON: Federal prosecutors are proposing a December trial start for Trump on the federal indictment charging him with illegally retaining national security secrets and obstruction of justice, Josh Gerstein writes. “In a court filing Friday night, prosecutors said the involvement of classified information in the case makes an earlier start for the trial unrealistic and they recommended beginning jury selection on December 11.” Read the filing

8. CROOKED POLITICS: Thanks to Trump’s cascade of legal woes and the HUNTER BIDEN saga, the 2024 campaign is on pace to become an exercise in alarmist politics as “each party accuses the other of criminality, with the cumulative effect being the steady erosion of public trust in the U.S. political system,” WSJ’s Annie Linskey and Simon Levien write. “[P]erhaps never has the U.S. electorate been so primed to believe the worst about those it puts in office.”

9. SCOTUS WATCH: “How the Supreme Court paved the way for the nation’s first religious charter school,” by USA Today’s John Fritze

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “After Roe v. Wade fell, this father-daughter duo left Texas to go on providing abortions,” by Reuters’ Gabriella Borter

— “An Aggressive Supreme Court Reshapes the U.S. as Its Standing Erodes,” by Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr, Zoe Tillman, Jennifer A Dlouhy and Jordan Fabian: “A conservative supermajority is remaking US laws on the environment, health and firearms, even as public confidence declines and ethical questions grow.”

— “The Unrelenting Optimism of Jamie Raskin,” by Andrea Stanley for Men’s Health: “He’s a dad who lost a son. A man who battled cancer (twice). A politician who lived through January 6. And yet somehow he’s still smiling (and occasionally crying, too).”

— “Suddenly, It Looks Like We’re in a Golden Age for Medicine,” by David Wallace-Wells for NYT Magazine: “We may be on the cusp of an era of astonishing innovation — the limits of which aren’t even clear yet.”

— “Can America’s Students Recover What They Lost During the Pandemic?” by ProPublica’s Alec MacGillis: “Disastrous test scores increasingly show how steep a toll the COVID-19 era exacted on students, particularly minorities. Schools are grappling with how to catch up, and the experience of one city shows how intractable the obstacles are.”

— “The Woman Who Bought a Mountain For God,” by The Atlantic’s Stephanie McCrummen: “The country’s fastest-growing Christian movement helped fuel Trump’s rise—and is gearing up for spiritual battle.”

— “Doing the Work,” by Ian Buruma in Harper’s Magazine: “The Protestant ethic and the spirit of wokeness.”

— “The professor is canceled. Now what?” by WaPo’s Jack Stripling: “An ‘intolerant’ professor is higher ed’s toughest subject.”

— “AI Is a Lot of Work,” by The Verge’s Josh Dzieza: “As the technology becomes ubiquitous, a vast tasker underclass is emerging — and not going anywhere.”

— “Jack Hanna’s long goodbye: How Alzheimer’s is stripping away the man the world once knew,” by The Columbus Dispatch’s Mike Wagner: “The Jack that remains now only remembers his wife Suzi, his dog Brassy and, at times, his oldest daughter Kathaleen when she travels nearly 5,000 miles from England to care for her dad.”

— “Everyone in Stephenville Thought They Knew Who Killed Susan Woods,” by Texas Monthly’s Bryan Burrough: “That left the real culprit free to prey on others, including one victim who was ignored for two decades.”

From the archives: “Inside the stunning growth of Russia’s Wagner Group,” by Erin Banco, Sarah Anne Aarup and Anastasiia Carrier on Feb. 18

SPOTTED: Mark Ein having lunch Thursday at the Royal with Seth Hurwitz, the owner of the 930 Club, the Anthem and the Atlantis.

WEDDING — Sarah Kendrick, senior adviser for digital for VP Kamala Harris, and Danny Carlson, chief of staff at the Department of Education’s Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, got married on June 17 at the Van Dusen Mansion in Minneapolis, with the wedding officiated by Edward Mills, brother-in-law to the groom and minister at the Universal Life Church of Modesto, Calif. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and John Bessler, Jenn Ridder and James Owens, Allyson Marcus and Dan Weaver, Tess Whittlesey and Justin Oswald, Nicole Russo and Matt Forbes, Roya Motazedi and Kevin Barker, Jamie Manning and Matt Manning, Jason Lamote, Kate Lowe, Josh Evenson, Jonathan Becker, Barbara Kendrick and Brian Kendrick, Jean Carlson and Bruce Carlson.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) (4-0) … Ralph Reed … U.S. Chamber’s Suzanne Clark … Omnika Thompson … Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Jeff Prescott … Matt Continetti … Robert Reich … Ben Tomchik … Anna Massoglia … POLITICO’s Megan Messerly, Nana Yeboah, Nirmal Mulaikal and Ping Sun … Jonathan Yuan of Rational 360 … Roger Fisk of New Day Strategy … USTR’s Heather Hurlburt … Alejandra Soto … Jennifer Millerwise Dyck … Amelia Makin ... Gretchen Reiter … Edelman’s Kevin Goldman … Locust Street Group’s Quincy Foster … Jason Johnson of Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s (D-Ariz.) office … NYT’s Adrienne Hurst … former New York Gov. George Pataki … Zach Seward

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

ABC “This Week”: Secretary of State Antony Blinken … Will Hurd … North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Marianna Sotomayor and Asma Khalid.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) … Cindy McCain.

CNN “State of the Union”: Secretary of State Antony Blinken … Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum … David Petraeus. Panel: Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Alyssa Farah Griffin, Jamal Simmons and David Urban.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Mike Pence … Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). Panel: Karl Rove, Juan Williams, Jeff Mason and Morgan Ortagus. Panel: Jonathan Turley, Tom Dupree and Elizabeth Wydra.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Secretary of State Antony Blinken … Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.). Panel: Cornell Belcher, Danielle Pletka, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Amy Walter.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) … Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). Panel: Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Miranda Devine and Peter Schweizer.

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