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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

WILL TRUMP STAND BY THE GOP? — RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL predicted on CNN’s “State of the Union” this morning that all Republicans will be required to sign a pledge to support whoever wins the party nomination in order to be allowed on the debate stage later this year.

“I suspect a pledge will be part of it,” McDaniel told Dana Bash, noting that it was part of the RNC’s 2016 requirement as well. “I think it's a no-brainer. If you’re going to be on the Republican National Committee debate stage, asking supporters to support you, you should say, ‘I will support the voters and who they choose as the nominee.’”

She added: “As RNC chair, if I said I wouldn’t support the Republican nominee, I would be removed from office.” More from Kelly Garrity

BUT BUT BUT … In recent days, DONALD TRUMP indicated that he wouldn’t necessarily do that, leaving open the possibility that he could be barred from the debates entirely. “It would depend,” he told conservative radio host HUGH HEWITT about signing such a document. “I would give you the same answer I gave in 2016, during the debate: It would have to depend on who the nominee was.”

On the other end of the spectrum, former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON recently said Trump’s actions on Jan. 6 “disqualified” him from being president again. That means vowing to back a would-be Trump candidate would put him — as well as other Trump critics — in a position of having to choose party over country.

Asked about both of these comments, McDaniel predicted “they're all going to sign it” — including Trump, who, she pointed out, did end up making such a promise in 2016.

“I think the voters are very intent on winning. And they do not want to see a debate stage of people saying, ‘I’m not going to support this guy,’” she said. “What they need to say is, ‘I’m going to do everything I can to defeat Joe Biden.’ And that means supporting the nominee of the Republican Party.”

A SENATE VET’S WARNING TO REPUBLICANS — Ahead of the anticipated debt-ceiling standoff looming later this year, former Senate Banking Committee Chair PHIL GRAMM is giving a familiar warning to Hill Republicans — one that dealmakers often issue on Capitol Hill: Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

In a WSJ op-ed last week, the Texas Republican recounted how during the Reagan years, the free-trade champion had to swallow a sugar subsidy program favored by an influential Democrat in order to help pass GOP spending and tax cuts. When RONALD REAGAN asked Gramm if Congress could clear the bill without the program, Gramm said he cried before advising the president to take the deal, he writes: “Reagan sighed and said, ‘I guess this is what they call kissing the pig.’”

His step back: “It was worth it …The test of any legislation is whether the country is better off with the change than it would have been without it. If Republicans apply that simple test, we can use the debt ceiling to begin to rein in the post-pandemic spending surge now and use the appropriations process to reduce spending even more later.”

The big question, of course, is whether today’s House GOP — packed full of fiery conservative ideological purists — will take such advice. Gramm’s warning comes as lawmakers return to Washington this week, with Republicans struggling to unite around a debt ceiling plan that could strengthen Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s hand in negotiations with President JOE BIDEN. We’re already hearing plenty of skepticism from senior Republicans about whether they can pull this off, with the conference divided between vulnerable centrists in Biden districts and fiscal hard-liners, many of whom have never voted to increase the debt ceiling.

And all of this is happening before negotiations begin with Democrats — talks that will no doubt result in an even more watered-down agreement. Even if McCarthy wins some concessions — which remains a big if since the White House still contends that it wants a “clean” debt ceiling increase — can he convince most of his members to back it?

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Biden on China’s proposed peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, in a recorded segment on ABC’s “This Week”: “I’ve seen nothing in the plan that would indicate that there is something that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia if the Chinese plan were followed. … Putin is applauding it, so how could it be any good? I’m not being facetious. … The idea that China is going to be negotiating the outcome of a war that’s a totally unjust war for Ukraine is just not rational.” More from David Cohen

On the state of the economy: “I don’t blame people for being down, you know. … Inflation is still higher than it should be, and, you know, everything from gasoline prices to a war going on in Ukraine. I mean, so I can’t think of a time when there’s been greater uncertainty.”

On TV news coverage: “Everything is in the negative. We’re also finding out now that one of the outlets has decided that they would put things on that they know to be false in order to increase their ratings.”

— National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on China’s proposed peace plan for the war in Ukraine, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “China put forward this plan without having had a single conversation since the war began between President XI [JINPING] and President [VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY … it’s very difficult to advance any kind of peace initiative when there’s that kind of one-sided diplomacy going on.”

On why the U.S. isn’t providing F-16s to Ukraine, on “State of the Union”: “The real reason … is that we are taking a very hard look at what it is that Ukraine needs for the immediate phase of the war that we’re in. And this phase of the war requires tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, artillery, tactical air defense systems, so that Ukrainian fighters can retake territory that Russia currently occupies. F-16s are a question for a later time.” More from Kelly Garrity

On whether the U.S. would support Ukraine taking Crimea with military force, on “State of the Union”: “I can't give you a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to a hypothetical question.”

— Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) on how the Biden administration “slow-rolled” military support for Ukraine, on “Meet the Press”: “That is a real blunder. We need to get them what they need now and listen to the Ukrainians, not … the policymakers. They’ve proven their ability to fight bravely, and I think we need to do a much better job.”

— Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) on the U.S. interest in the war, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Our national security is on the front line in Ukraine today. It's in the United States interest to make sure that Ukraine wins this war. So our investments here are to help us defend our own country.”

— Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) on a potential 2024 presidential run, on “Fox News Sunday”: “My focus is still on the mission of making sure that every single American believes that the American dream is achievable for them.”

— Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) on “This Week,” regarding whether he still thinks panel member MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE has “matured” in light of her recent cheerleading of secession: “No, I don’t speak for her. … I will say, a divisive rhetoric I think polarizes this nation and I think it hurts this nation. I think what we need today is a voice that can unify the nation.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

• John Podhoretz for Commentary: “The Republican Temptation”
• Michelle Goldberg for NYT: “Don’t Let Politics Cloud Your View of What’s Going On With Teens and Depression”
• Jennifer Senior for The Atlantic: “The Puzzling Gap Between How Old You Are And How Old You Think You Are”
• Katherine Miller for NYT: “Joe Biden’s Greatest Strength Is Also His Greatest Vulnerability”
• Henry Olsen for WaPo: “The Supreme Court might not want to upend the internet. But Big Tech should.”
• The WaPo Editorial Board: “The IRS should not be running on 60-year-old technology”
• A. Lee Fritschler for the Tampa Bay Times: “Florida conservatives abandon their small-government roots”
• David Deptula and Evelyn Farkas for WSJ: “Why Ukraine Needs F-16s”
• George Will for WaPo: “Glenn Youngkin is no surly GOP brawler. Many might welcome that.”
• Trey Yingst for USA Today: “‘Hell on earth’: I reported from the war in Ukraine. What I witnessed still haunts me.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. ORIGIN STORY: “Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Agency Now Says,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Warren Strobel: “The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress. The shift by the Energy Department, which previously was undecided on how the virus emerged, is noted in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office. The new report highlights how different parts of the intelligence community have arrived at disparate judgments about the pandemic’s origin.”

2. SHOCKING STORY: “Migrant boat breaks apart off Italy; dozens dead, 80 survive,” by AP’s Frances D’Emilio: “At least 45 migrants died when their wooden boat smashed into rocky reefs and broke apart off southern Italy before dawn Sunday, the Italian coast guard and U.N. agencies said. Survivors indicated that dozens more could be missing from the boat that had set out from Turkey.”

3. THE SKIPPING SENATORS: “With Trump running, nearly all Republican senators say no to a presidential bid,” by NBC’s Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong: “[T]he Senate is packed with hyper-ambitious and self-confident politicians, many with national followings and barely concealed presidential aspirations. Yet nearly all of them are taking a pass at a White House bid next year after former President Donald Trump launched his attempted comeback campaign in November.

“‘This cycle is shaping up to be very different from every cycle since 2000, where it seemed half the Senate was campaigning for president,’ said Alex Conant, who worked for Sen. MARCO RUBIO of Florida in his Senate office and then his 2016 presidential campaign. That year, the GOP field was so crowded with senators — Rubio, TED CRUZ of Texas, RAND PAUL of Kentucky and LINDSEY GRAHAM of South Carolina — that Conant recalled a candidate forum in New Hampshire where a crop of candidates took part from a Capitol Hill studio. None of them have expressed interest in running this cycle.”

4. THE LIMITS OF REACHING ACROSS THE AISLE: “Bipartisan Plans to Move Aggressively on China Face Political Hurdles in Congress,” by NYT’s Karoun Demirjian: “For now, only a few, mostly narrow ventures have drawn enough bipartisan interest to have a chance at advancing amid the political tide. … Such initiatives are limited in scope, predominantly defensive and relatively cheap — which lawmakers say are important factors in getting legislation over the hurdles posed by this split Congress. And, experts point out, none are issues that would be felt keenly by voters, or translate particularly well into political pitches on the 2024 campaign trail.”

5. THE LATEST IN EAST PALESTINE: “How a small-town train derailment erupted into a culture battle,” by WaPo’s Toluse Olorunnipa, Justine McDaniel and Ian Duncan: “By the time the president arrived in Kyiv on Feb. 20, the accident in East Palestine had surprised the White House — and many others — by erupting into the country’s latest cultural firefight over identity, polarization and the role of government. And by the time Biden returned to Washington, his aides were battling accusations that he had forsaken a small, predominantly White town as it struggled with the aftermath of an environmental catastrophe caused by a multibillion-dollar company.”

6. INSIDE STORY: “A new bipartisan push for paid family leave,” by CNN’s Dana Bash and Abbie Sharpe: “‘We live in the greatest nation in the world, and we do so many things well, but when you’re talking about families, this is one area that we have struggled,’ Republican Rep. STEPHANIE BICE of Oklahoma told CNN during an interview in her Capitol Hill office last month. Sitting beside her, nodding, was Democratic Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania.

“‘It’s frankly an embarrassment that we are one of the seven nations or so that doesn’t have this kind of focus on the family,’ Houlahan said. ‘It’s really, really important that we lead by our example.’ At the end of January, determined to find a solution to the lack of universal paid family and medical leave in America, the congresswomen officially launched their House Bipartisan Paid Family Leave Working Group.”

7. FED UP: “How the Fed Opened Pandora’s Box,” by NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Its actions could set a precedent for the next economic crisis, one in which Fed officials — insulated from voters by design — are left making sweeping decisions that shape which businesses, governments and economic sectors thrive and which ones struggle. Central bankers tried to avoid picking winners and losers in 2020, at times resisting partisan pressure to do so, but that often owed to the personalities in charge rather than to strict legal limitations.”

8. WHAT’S UP IN THE WINDY CITY: “The 9-person stage drama in Chicago that won’t end on Election Day,” by Shia Kapos in Chicago: “Mayor LORI LIGHTFOOT, a Democrat, faces eight challengers in Tuesday’s contest and neither money, advertising nor polling are clear indicators of the outcome in a race almost entirely about crime. The only thing that seems certain among political insiders, alderpeople, members of the congressional delegation, pollsters and the mayor herself, is that Lightfoot won’t crack the 50 percent needed to avoid a two-person runoff on April 4.”

9. CASH CLICKER: “How To Print Money,” by NYT’s Alan Rappeport, Adam Perez, Megan Lovallo, Marisa Schwartz Taylor and Rebecca Lieberman: “In December, [Treasury Secretary JANET] YELLEN made history during a trip to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Fort Worth, Texas, where she signed commemorative notes at the unveiling of a new batch of dollar bills. It was the first time that U.S. bank notes, which have been signed by 29 prior Treasury secretaries, featured the signature of a woman. It also marked one of the rare occasions when the nation’s currency has been remade. Here’s an in-depth look at how it’s done.”

Donald Trump’s visit to East Palestine, Ohio, got the SNL treatment.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — After Boeing's Ziad Ojakli stepped down as chair of the National Zoo, the zoo named a baby cheetah after him to honor his “leadership and commitment” to the zoo and surprised him with the news on Friday at the opening of the new bird sanctuary at the zoo. His name means “abundance, growth, generous, greater” in Arabic. Pic of the cheetah and its paw prints from its birth certificate

TRANSITIONS — Harry Fones is now comms director for Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.). He most recently was comms director for the House Select Committee on Economic Disparity and Fairness in Growth, and is a Trump DHS alum. … Garrison Douglas is now press secretary for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. He most recently was Georgia press secretary for the RNC. … Peter Warren is now senior adviser for the House Oversight Committee. He most recently was director of research at the Empire Center for Public Policy, and is a Trump OMB alum. …

… Laura Dove is joining the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School as senior director of administration. She previously was Senate Republican secretary. … Matt Kellogg is now principal at Rich Feuer Anderson. He most recently was VP of government affairs and comms at MoneyLion and is a Trump Treasury and Kevin McCarthy alum.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Samantha Leahy, an SVP at Forbes Tate, and Sean McLean, who owns Origin Advocacy, got married Friday at Cathedral of St. Matthew the Apostle, with a reception at Perry Belmont House. The couple met working for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who attended.Pic … SPOTTED: Victoria and George Coates, Dougie and James Christoferson, Alexa Henning, Megan Packer, Martha and Andrew Miller, Caitlin and Steve Groves, Merav Ceren and Omri Ceren.

— Cameron Kilberg, head of legal and government affairs at home amenity rental company Swimply, on Feb. 18 married Russ Juncker, a physical education teacher and head lacrosse coach at Herndon (Va.) High School. The couple met on Hinge in April of 2021 though they had both grown up in McLean and knew a lot of the same people but had never met. “We got married at my parents' house in McLean (Bobbie and Bill Kilberg) with the VA AG performing the service for us,” Cameron tells us. “It was a small family ceremony. We will be having a more formal wedding in July at Dragsholm Slot, a castle 45 minutes outside of Copenhagen. Our good friend Jay Nelson will perform the non-legal ceremony in Denmark.” Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) … Corry Bliss … U.N. World Food Programme’s David Beasley (66) … Arden Farhi ... POLITICO’s Katie Ellsworth and Annabel Smith … Carrie Meadows ... Amanda Alpert Loveday ... A’shanti Gholar ... Ashli Scott Palmer ... Li Zhou ... Courtney Paul ... Alan Rosenblatt … Bassima Alghussein … Ronald Lauder … Reuters’ Nicholas Brown ... Maia Estes … Rokk Solutions’ John Brandt and Brigitta Gegenheimer … Zara Haq ... Clay Doherty ... Fae Jencks … Kathy Park … George Agurkis … Mike McKenna (6-0)

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Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the venue where Emma-Jo Morris' birthday party was celebrated. It was at Beach Cafe.