Presented by

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

GAZA LATEST — “Thousands break into aid warehouses in Gaza as deaths top 8,000 and Israel widens ground offensive,” by AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Samy Magdy

THE GOP FIELD STARTS CONSOLIDATING — In an alternate political reality with a different Republican Party, MIKE PENCE would have been a formidable presidential candidate. A former VP, governor and congressman from a Midwestern state; a man with a genial demeanor, a steadfastly conservative Christian worldview and a voting record to match. In that alternate reality, he likely would’ve made it at least through Iowa.

But in the real world, Pence’s campaign lasted less than six months.

Yesterday, speaking in Las Vegas at the annual Republican Jewish Coalition gathering, Pence endorsed Israel’s military moves in Gaza, then switched to “a personal note.”

“Traveling across the country the past six months … it’s become clear to me: This is not my time,” Pence told the crowd to audible gasps. “So after much prayer and deliberation. I have decided to suspend my campaign for president effective today.” More on his speech from Alex Isenstadt and Myah Ward

Pence didn’t endorse any of the remaining candidates, but instead implored his party to “give our country a Republican standard-bearer that will, as LINCOLN said, ‘appeal to the better angels of our nature,’ and not only lead us to victory, but lead our nation with civility back to the time-honored principles that have always made America strong and prosperous and free.”

It was a not-so-subtle nod to the main reason Pence never had much of a chance in this primary: DONALD TRUMP. Pence was running as an old-school Reagan Republican, a happy warrior and true believer who would bring the party back to a time of fiscal and social conservatism.

But the Republican Party has changed — perhaps to a degree Pence didn’t fully appreciate — and his refusal to help Trump overturn the 2020 election results made him among the most loathed figures on the MAGA right.

Where in 2016, Trump picked Pence as his running mate largely to reassure the evangelical wing of the GOP, in the 2024 cycle, there’s really only one litmus test for Republican voters: Are you sufficiently pro-Trump, or not?

By that measure, Pence fell short.

Since officially launching his campaign in June, Pence failed to capture any traction in polls or in fundraising. Now, he is the first high-profile 2024 candidate to end his presidential campaign. And his exit from the field is approximately the 50,000th piece of evidence that the Republican Party now belongs to Trump and Trumpism.

THE QUESTION NOW: Who benefits from Pence’s withdrawal?

Last Sunday, we wrote about the “case for consolidation” of the GOP field: that having a number of non-Trump candidates this late in the race makes it impossible for the non-Trump vote to coalesce around a single strong opponent to the former president.

But what if the winnowing field simply reinforces Trump’s sense of inevitability?

Witness Montana Sen. STEVE DAINES, the chair of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. Pence’s decision was “the right move,” Daines said. “Because it’s clear President Trump is going to be the nominee for Republicans for president, and the sooner we coalesce around him the better it’s going to be.” More from Alex Isenstadt

Of course, that’s not a view shared by any of the non-Trump 2024 candidates. In her RJC speech, NIKKI HALEY applauded Pence as a “good man of faith” who is owed “a debt of gratitude.” Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS made no mention of Pence during his speech, notes WaPo’s Maeve Reston, but later tweeted his appreciation. Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) called Pence “a prayer partner, a friend, and a man of integrity and deep conviction.” CHRIS CHRISTIE went a step further than the others, thanking Pence for “putting his oath of office and the Constitution of the United States before personal and political pressure.”

Then there was Trump himself.

“Because I had a great, successful presidency and he was the vice president, he should endorse me,” the former president said at a Vegas rally. “I chose him, made him vice president. But people in politics can be very disloyal.”

The first campaign obits:

— POLITICO’s Adam Wren: “At times, Pence seemed to be running more for his place in the history books than the Iowa caucuses, defending his resistance to Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election and criticizing Trump and other GOP candidates polling above him on everything from their positions on Social Security reform to the war in Ukraine. The Wi-Fi passcode at his June 7 launch event in Ankeny, Iowa, earlier this year was: ‘KeptHisOath!’

“Pence framed the GOP primary as a battle between populism and conservatism, frequently decrying what he called ‘the siren song’ of the former. He did manage to shape the debate in limited ways, pressing candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to embrace a 15-week ban on abortion and assailing biotech entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY over his lack of experience.”

ICYMI, Adam’s pre-mortem of Pence’s campaign: “He Was Once a Favorite of the Right. Now, Mike Pence Can’t Get a Crowd of 15 to a Pizza Ranch.”

— NYT: “Pence Bows Out of 2024 Presidential Race That Trump Is Dominating”

— WaPo: “Mike Pence suspends his struggling 2024 campaign”

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Speaker MIKE JOHNSON on unlinking the Biden administration’s requests for Ukraine aid and Israel aid, on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”: “We are going to move a stand-alone Israel funding bill this week in the House. I know our Republican colleagues in the Senate have a similar measure. We believe that that is a pressing and urgent need. There are lots of things going around the world that we have to address, and we will. But right now, what’s happening in Israel takes the immediate attention, and I think we’ve got to separate that and get it through. I believe there’ll be bipartisan support for that, and I’m going to push very hard for it.”

— Christie on Trump’s support for decoupling Ukraine aid and Israel aid, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “This is Donald Trump’s bad worldview. Look, he wants to do it and separate them because he wants to continue to coddle [VLADIMIR] PUTIN.”

— National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on Israeli offensives and Palestinian deaths, on “State of the Union”: “We do believe that thousands of Palestinian civilians have been killed in this bombardment. And every single one of those deaths is a tragedy. Every human life is sacred … We have had conversations privately — as well as our public pronouncements — private conversations with Israel about the need to protect innocent civilians and to be targeted in their military operations … The president will speak again with the prime minister in a few hours’ time today, and he will continue to reiterate the United States’ position on this issue. It is clear, it is straightforward, and we believe that it is rooted in the fundamental laws of war.”

— DeSantis on Ramaswamy’s criticism of his call to ban pro-Palestinian groups from Florida universities, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “This is not cancel culture. This group, they themselves said, in the aftermath of the Hamas attack, that they don’t just stand in solidarity — that they are part of this Hamas movement. And so, yeah, you have a right to go out and demonstrate, but you can’t provide material support to terrorism. They’ve linked themselves to Hamas. And so we absolutely decertified them. They should not get one red cent of taxpayer dollars. And we also have strong laws in Florida against fundraising for groups like Hamas, and we are enforcing those vigorously. It’s not a First Amendment issue. That’s a material support to terrorism issue.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

• “The Bipartisan Urge To Control Online Speech,” by Jacob Sullum for Reason

• “Republicans Don’t Really Want to Be in Charge,” by Rich Lowry for POLITICO Mag

• “The Reactionary Futurism of Marc Andreessen,” by Ezra Klein for NYT

• “My Old Friend Is Ripping Down Posters of Kidnapped Children,” by Candace Mittel Kahn for The Free Press

• “I Fought for the I.D.F. in Gaza. It Made Me Fight for Peace,” by Benzion Sanders for NYT

• “The Far Left Is Clueless to the Damage Its Pro-Hamas Messaging Is Doing to the Progressive Movement,” by Charlotte Clymer for The Daily Beast

• “I Might Have Once Favored a Cease-Fire With Hamas, but Not Now,” by Dennis Ross for NYT

At the White House

President JOE BIDEN has nothing on his public schedule.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ interview with CBS’ Bill Whitaker on “60 Minutes” will air tonight.

On the trail

Trump is returning to Iowa for the eighth time in barely a month, delivering a speech in Sioux City, the AP previews.

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. STRIKE TWO: The United Auto Workers have struck a tentative deal with Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, Jeep and others, marking the second such agreement with one of the Big Three automakers in a few days, Bloomberg’s Gabrielle Coppola, David Welch, and Josh Eidelson report. It’s modeled on the earlier Ford deal, including a 25% pay raise over four years.

But UAW is upping the pressure on General Motors, the last holdout, with a surprise expansion of its strike to a Tennessee factory, WSJ’s Nora Eckert, Ryan Felton and Mike Colias scooped.

Politically, the looming end of the strikes is a significant relief for Biden, who can start to worry less about potential economic ramifications, Nick Niedzwiadek, Holly Otterbein and Olivia Olander report. It would also give him a boost in his image-making as a pro-union president, while easing tensions between the labor and environmental pieces of his coalition.

2. A NEW SILVER MEDALIST?: “‘The rise is real’: Haley’s breakout is jolting 2024’s undercard race,” by Natalie Allison in Cedar Rapids, Iowa: “Haley, to be sure, isn’t filling stadiums. Campaigning recently in Iowa, her events look much like they did throughout the spring and summer … But there are signs on the trail that Haley is now a critical factor in the race, evident not only in the supporters who show up for her, but in the opponents who once ignored her.”

3. MORE FROM THE RJC: Haley lobbed some direct criticisms at Trump at the Vegas confab yesterday, swiping at him for his chaos, controversial comments about the Middle East and ability to win the general election. “We all know what Trump did in the past,” she said, per Myah Ward. “The question is, what will he do in the future?” Ramaswamy, on the flip side, got a mixed response for his defense of his more isolationist views, which he argued were not anti-Israel — but rather more focused on building a strong America, Myah reports.

But in the end, of course, it was all about Trump. The former president could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and call Hezbollah “very smart” and still get massive applause from a room of Jewish Republicans, it turns out: Though the event “had all the ingredients for a Donald Trump pile-on … it turned into a demonstration of the former president’s dominance in the race — and how swiftly his perceived missteps can be forgotten,” Alex Isenstadt reports. Trump suggested that he might have been able to get Iran to join the Abraham Accords had he been reelected. He also promised again to reinstate his travel ban on mostly Muslim countries on Day One of a new term.

4. FOLLOWING THE MONEY: “DeSantis allies earn big paychecks on the front lines of his culture fights,” by CNN’s Steve Contorno: “Many of the governor’s top lieutenants in charge of executing his hard-charging agenda — which doubles as a platform for his presidential campaign — earn six-figure incomes. In some cases, their pay far outpaces the salaries for their jobs under past Florida governors.”

5. NINE DAYS OUT: Vulnerable Ohio Democrats are putting all their chips on next week’s referendum to protect abortion rights in the state, hoping that it could be their ticket to victory in an increasingly red state, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Madison Fernandez report from Columbus. Republicans are working hard to fight it too, but right now pro-abortion-rights forces seem to have the momentum. “The results of the Nov. 7 referendum and the margin of victory will shape strategy and messaging next year in Ohio, in several other battleground states likely to put abortion on their ballots and in Democratic campaigns to hold the White House and win control of Congress.”

6. KIM’S INCONVENIENCE: “Andy Kim vs. The (Jersey) Machine,” by Brakkton Booker: Rep. ANDY KIM’s Senate campaign “seems to be working. … But he’s about to meet the buzzsaw of the New Jersey political machine. Already, the state party establishment, which was miffed by his swift move to get in the race ahead of the November legislative elections, seems to be entertaining getting behind TAMMY MURPHY, the wife of Gov. PHIL MURPHY. … The coming months could provide a classic sort of political showdown, featuring an upstart trying to harness outsider excitement in a state known for insider dealmaking.”

7. MIDDLE EAST ESCALATION: As the Biden administration increasingly worries about the Israeli-Palestinian war spiraling into a broader regional conflict, Saudi Defense Minister KHALID BIN SALMAN is coming to D.C. tomorrow for talks, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. The visit has been on the books for a while, but it comes amid U.S. planning for the “alarming prospect of regional escalation,” per Axios’ Hans Nichols and Ravid. “Administration officials believe that the key to preventing the conflict from escalating is to send clear messages to Iran and Hezbollah to stay out of it.”

Related read: “U.S. Should Press Israel to Implement Measures to Save ‘Tens of Thousands of Lives’ in Gaza: Internal Cable,” by Vice’s Hind Hassan and Lama Al Arian

8. STICKING TO THEIR GUNS: “A mass shooting changed a congressman’s mind on assault weapons. Will it change his state?” by the Boston Globe’s Jess Bidgood in Lewiston, Maine: Rep. JARED GOLDEN’s (D-Maine) announcement “was a stunning about-face that shocked Mainers on both sides of the gun debate, one that could make it more difficult than ever for the 41-year-old Democrat to hold a Congressional district that has twice backed former president Donald Trump. It also raises the question of whether the carnage here can shift the politics of one of the nation’s most gun-friendly states. For Golden, who wrote his remarks in the 30 minutes between Portland and Lewiston, it was a personal, quickly-made decision.”

9. IMMIGRATION FILES: The surge of illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border includes record numbers of Indians, WSJ’s Tarini Parti reports — 42,000 in the last fiscal year, plus another 1,600 through the northern border. Some are driven by political/religious fears under PM NARENDRA MODI’s increasingly Hindu nationalist government, seeking asylum. Others are motivated by economic factors or because legal pathways for immigration have gotten so over-taxed.

Tim Scott claimed that he’s crossed the donor threshold for the next debate.

Joe Biden’s Delaware residence saw fighter jets intercept a civilian aircraft nearby.

Barack Obama’s presidential center is coming together after eight years.

J.B. Pritzker took Halloween seriously.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge … Kate Bedingfield … White House’s Seth Schuster … Jim Messina … NBC’s Laura Jarrett and David Corvo … MSNBC’s David Seigel … WaPo’s Dave Clarke … POLITICO’s Steve Heuser and Karima Punches … Robert George … Washington Examiner’s Jamie McIntyre … Geoff Turley … Isabelle James … Mike Saccone … Kat Timpf … Bob Stevenson … Natalie Jones Hallahan of the Meridian International Center … WSJ’s Kate Bachelder Odell … Bill Jaffee of Locust Street Group … Daisy Gordon … Justin McCartney of Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s (D-Va.) office … DOD’s Laura Kupe … CBS’ Avery Miller … former Sen. Connie Mack III (R-Fla.) ... Peter Albrecht … Aaron Jacobs … Ryan Quinn … Anthony Pardal of the American Bankers Association … Dimitri Simes … former acting AG Matt Whitaker … Mimi Montgomery … former Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne … Amalia Corby of the American Society for Microbiology … Frank Carone … Nelson Cunningham

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine and Andrew Howard.