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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Over the last 24 hours, the dynamics that will define the 2024 Republican primary have begun to come into clear view, as told in three must-read stories:

1. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS “has indicated privately that he intends to run for president,” WaPo’s Hannah Knowles and Isaac Stanley-Becker report from Davenport, Iowa.

2. Former President DONALD TRUMP appears likely to face criminal charges in Manhattan stemming from his alleged payment of hush money to porn star STORMY DANIELS, NYT’s William Rashbaum, Ben Protess and Jonah Bromwich scooped last night.

3. Other leading Republicans are taking aim at both Trump and DeSantis, our own Jonathan Martin reports in a piece that just published.

Let’s take those one at a time:

DeSANTIS PREPARES TO HIT THE GROUND RUNNING — In the clearest statement of his plans to date, the Florida governor has reportedly told confidants he intends to run for president. Though a draft-DeSantis super PAC that launched yesterday “is likely to serve as an approved outside spending vehicle for his campaign,” Knowles and Stanley-Becker report that the governor’s allies “do not expect him to announce a run until after the Florida state legislative session ends in May. But in recent conversations, DeSantis has described his presidential plans without any caveats that would suggest he’s still deciding, according to the two people familiar with his comments.”

DeSantis is hitting Iowa today and Nevada tomorrow. And his team is figuring out how to earmark the $70 million left over from his gubernatorial reelect for the presidential bid instead.

In Iowa, he’ll almost cross paths with Trump. On Monday, the former president will make his first trip to the state since announcing his own 2024 bid, NBC’s Jonathan Allen and Allan Smith write.

That sets up this weekend as a kickoff of sorts for the high-stakes caucuses — as well as the first time that DeSantis will be able to really test his message in an early state.

Trump still “looms large over the early stage of the campaign,” CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports from Urbandale, where he finds plenty of Republican voters still feeling loyal to the former president. But his appeal as a candidate could dim a bit in light of the legal woes that appear to lurk just over the horizon.

WILL CRIMINAL CHARGES TRIP UP TRUMP? — In what would be a historic and unprecedented move, prosecutors from the Manhattan district attorney’s office invited Trump to testify before a grand jury in the investigation of hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign to adult film star Daniels.

“Such offers almost always indicate an indictment is close; it would be unusual for the district attorney, ALVIN L. BRAGG, to notify a potential defendant without ultimately seeking charges against him,” write NYT’s Rashbaum, Protess and Bromwich.

Trump, in a long, rambling statement on Truth Social, denied having an affair with Daniels, insulted her appearance and likened the investigation to the Russia and Ukraine inquiries that dominated his presidency.

While any indictment of Trump could flip 2024 on its head, “even if Mr. Trump is indicted, convicting him or sending him to prison will be challenging,” the trio write. “The case against the former president hinges on an untested and therefore risky legal theory involving a complex interplay of laws, all amounting to a low-level felony.”

Don’t expect Trump to cooperate: A Trump spokesperson blasted the reported “threat” as “simply insane” in a statement last night. “President Trump was the victim of extortion then, just as he is now. It’s an embarrassment to the Democrat prosecutors, and it’s an embarrassment to New York City.”

In another indication of Trump’s mindset, he told reporters separately that RICHARD NIXON’s greatest Watergate regret “was that he didn’t fight, he should have fought,” per the Washington Examiner.

And it remains unclear whether an indictment would actually hurt Trump in a primary. After years of sowing doubt and disinformation about any institution that investigated or stood against him, it is possible that any charges could have something of a “rally around the flag” effect with his core supporters.

TWO FLORIDA MEN VS. EVERYBODY — JMart has the readout from a recent hush-hush Republican donor conference in Austin. The topline takeaway: Among Republicans who dislike Trump, “a sense of mission creep is already setting in on the anti-Trump plotting,” Martin writes.

“As DeSantis heads to Iowa Friday for what’s effectively the start of his presidential bid, his initial strength with Republican contributors and voters alike is prompting the other would-be candidates to divide or at least pair their attacks. With Trump appearing to have an unshakable core of support, and the nature of the primary shaping up to be who can emerge as the strongest alternative to him, the rest of the potential field plainly feels pressure to dislodge DeSantis from his early perch as that candidate.” Read on for quotes galore from former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE, former VP MIKE PENCE and New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU

Also worth reading: In a new national survey of Republican county chairs for POLITICO Magazine, Seth Masket finds that DeSantis has nudged ahead. In this “invisible primary” of party leaders, 19% are backing the Florida governor, compared to 17% for Trump. But it’s still wide open: Half say they’re uncommitted. More stunning: When asked which candidates they’re open to considering, 73% list DeSantis — but just 43% say Trump.

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Who’s winning your invisible primary? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: JAY OBERNOLTE — With the rise of artificial intelligence, members of Congress suddenly find themselves looking for answers about the coming disruption. One challenge: Many of them are basically computer illiterate. So when they needed an expert, the guy they turned to was Jay Obernolte, a video game developer from Southern California who also happens to be a Republican congressman.

Obernolte is not your average member of the House. While his future peers in Washington were joining the College Republicans, he was at CalTech writing code for his side hustle. When they got law degrees or internships on Capitol Hill, he earned a masters in artificial intelligence. Obernolte is, according to fellow members, the guy you need to know on this issue. Which is why we sought him out to talk about how to approach the regulation of AI and what we should really be worried about when it comes to its disruptive capabilities. (Spoiler alert: It’s jobs — not some rogue chatbot with dreams of becoming a T-1000 from “Terminator 2.”)

Listen to the full interview on Playbook Deep Dive … Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

WHY WALL STREET WANTS WEAK JOBS NUMBERS — At 8:30 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February jobs report, giving us a look at the state of the economy — and a preview of just how severe the Fed’s interest rate hike will be when its leaders meet later this month.

What economists expect: a net gain of around 225,000 jobs in February, or roughly half as many jobs as January’s gangbusters number (517,000).

That sort of cool-down might actually be good news — at least as far as Fed Chair JEROME POWELL is concerned. “In the upside-down world of high inflation, slower growth is considered a good thing,” POLITICO economics reporter Victoria Guida reminds Playbook.

The context: This week, Powell testified before Congress and signaled his willingness to raise rates faster and to hold them there for longer, if that’s what it takes to bring inflation down to the central bank’s goal of 2%.

“If job growth comes in below expectations, it could bolster the argument that the central bank is closer to being done with its rate hike campaign and raise the odds that the country could see lower inflation while avoiding recession,” Victoria says.

Related reads: “U.S. Jobless Claims Jump but Remain Historically Low,” WSJ … “Inflation Is Stickier Than Previously Thought, NY Fed Study Shows,” Bloomberg … “With Wall St. Jumpy Again, the Jobs Report Could Offer Some Clarity,” NYT

PHOTO OF THE DAY

2024 WATCH

HALEY GOES THERE ON ENTITLEMENTS — “Nikki Haley calls for changing retirement age for Americans who are now in their 20s,” by CNN’s Kate Sullivan and Jeff Zeleny in Council Bluffs, Iowa: “‘What you would do is, for those in their 20s coming into the system, we would change the retirement age so that it matches life expectancy,’ [NIKKI] HALEY said Thursday on Fox News.”

RETIREMENT WATCH — “From afar, after all, it would appear that [independent Vermont Sen. BERNIE] SANDERS is ‘all systems go’ for another round in the Senate,” N.Y. Mag’s Gabe Debenedetti writes this morning. But, but, but: “The truth is that Sanders has yet to convey anything solid to even his inner circle, a group of aides and allies who don’t doubt his commitment to doing the job, his pride at having reached this level of political influence, or his likely unwillingness to let it go voluntarily — but who are equally aware of his age.”

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — “Senate GOP close to landing top recruit in Montana,” by Axios’ Josh Kraushaar: “Senate Republicans are close to recruiting TIM SHEEHY, a decorated military veteran and successful businessman with the resources to self-finance a campaign, to run against Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) in 2024. … Sheehy, whom Republicans view as straight out of central casting, is being encouraged to run by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) … If Sheehy runs, he would face the likelihood of a competitive primary against Rep. MATT ROSENDALE.”

CONGRESS

McCONNELL HEALTH UPDATE — It turns out that Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL suffered a concussion in his fall Wednesday night, his office said yesterday. Senate colleagues said they were told McConnell would likely remain hospitalized for several more days. Though McConnell had to stay awake a long time, per concussion protocols, senators said he was reportedly in good spirits and expected to recover. Biden said he’d spoken with the GOP leader’s family. More from WaPo

MANCHIN IN THE MIDDLE — “Manchin keeps ’em guessing, from Senate Dems to the House GOP,” by Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris: “[H]e’ll keep exerting his political leverage, at least until he runs and Republicans start to limit his opportunities or a retirement announcement saps his Senate sway. And the West Virginian is well aware of that limited window to maximize his current role as the GOP’s best bipartisan dealmaking partner and the Senate Energy Committee chair.”

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — A deported Brazilian who was convicted of credit card/ATM fraud in 2017 said this week that Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) masterminded the operation, Jacqueline Sweet scooped from NYC.

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — House Republicans aren’t stopping at the rollback of D.C.’s local criminal code changes: More than a dozen co-sponsors signed onto a new bill introduced yesterday that would unwind the city’s recent police reforms, Axios’ Cuneyt Dil reports, which were “meant to boost transparency and weaken the police union’s hand in disciplinary disputes.” But Reps. ANDREW CLYDE (R-Ga.) and ANDREW GARBARINO (R-N.Y.) say their resolution is necessary to shore up the city’s police.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Today, Reps. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) and SUMMER LEE (D-Pa.) will get a briefing from senior officials at the Department of Justice on the DOJ’s “enforcement authority over policing practices.” The briefing comes following the police killing of TYRE NICHOLS in January in Memphis, as well as the Wednesday release of a DOJ report finding a pattern of unlawful and discriminatory conduct by the Louisville Metro Police Department, a person familiar with the briefing said.

JUST POSTED — “Republicans Open Inquiry Into Treatment of Jan. 6 Defendants at D.C. Jail,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater: “On Thursday, [Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.)] wrote to the D.C. mayor, MURIEL BOWSER, demanding answers to questions, a tour of the correctional facility in southeastern Washington, and access to staff and inmates to conduct interviews by March 23.”

THE TAXMAN COMETH — “U.S. Senate confirms Biden’s pick to lead Internal Revenue Service,” Reuters: “Five Republicans crossed party lines to support [DANNY] WERFEL in the 54-42 vote.”

GARCETTI INCHES CLOSER — “Senate tees up vote on Eric Garcetti’s nomination to be ambassador to India,” by the L.A. Times’ Jennifer Haberkorn

WHAT McCARTHY IS PUSHING — “House GOP votes to overturn Biden rule on water protections,” by AP’s Matthew Daly and Michael Phillis … “House Republicans advance energy package HR 1 to counter Biden agenda,” by the Washington Examiner’s Breanne Deppisch

STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOLUTION — “McCarthy slams Biden’s budget, but does not give timeline for GOP plan,” by Spectrum News’ Cassie Semyon, David Mendez, Justin Tasolides and Maureen McManus … “House GOP hates Biden’s budget — but is still hunting for its own formula,” by Sarah Ferris and Nancy Vu

THE WHITE HOUSE

BUDGET DAY — “Biden sticks it to Republicans with his budget proposal,” by Caitlin Emma and Adam Cancryn

DEFICIT REALITY CHECK — “Biden Budget Puts Spotlight on Deficit Crunch Facing Washington,” by Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove: “His record so far is partially a mirage rather than a signal of a strong balance sheet: the $1.7 trillion reduction in the annual deficit under Biden is relative to extraordinary one-time costs of the pandemic, and many of his legislative accomplishments have expanded the shortfall. … And the president’s own budget projections would see the deficit increasing next year, from $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion. The gross federal debt would swell from $33 trillion this year to $51 trillion after a decade.”

Related read: “Missing From Biden’s Budget: His Plan for Social Security,” by NYT’s Jim Tankersley

TRUMP CARDS

BOOK CLUB — “New Trump book features letters from foreign leaders, celebs,” by AP’s Jill Colvin: “Trump will release a new book next month that features letters from celebrities and politicians written to him through the years. ‘Letters to Trump’ includes private correspondence with former presidents including BARACK OBAMA, GEORGE W. BUSH and Richard Nixon, along with celebrities like OPRAH WINFREY and MICHAEL JACKSON. There are letters from the late PRINCESS DIANA, as well as foreign leaders, including former Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO and North Korea’s KIM JONG UN.”

In a book-related conference call with reporters, Trump discussed Kim: “I talked to him a lot. I got to know him very well. He was very smart. Very cunning, very streetwise.” More from Meridith McGraw

POLICY CORNER

LIKE THE START OF A SCI-FI MOVIE — “The Pentagon is funding experiments on animals to recreate ‘Havana Syndrome,’” by Lara Seligman

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BIG DECISION — “U.S. Grants Smotrich Diplomatic Visa Despite His Calls for Israel to Destroy Palestinian Village,” by Haaretz’s Ben Samuels: “State Department officials had been internally debating whether to deny [far-right Israeli Finance Minister BEZALEL] SMOTRICH a visa … No U.S. officials will meet with Smotrich during his trip, to that end.”

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — “Mexican president to U.S.: Fentanyl is your problem,” by AP’s Mark Stevenson in Mexico City: “Mexico’s president said Thursday that his country does not produce or consume fentanyl, despite enormous evidence to the contrary. President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR appeared to depict the synthetic opioid epidemic largely as a U.S. problem, and said the United States should use family values to fight drug addiction. … He went on to recite a list of reasons why Americans might be turning to fentanyl, including single-parent families, parents who kick grown children out of their houses and people who put elderly relatives in old-age homes ‘and visit them once a year.’”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week,” with guest moderator Amna Nawaz: Peter Baker, Laura Barrón-López and Leigh Ann Caldwell.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) … Finnish President Sauli Niinistö … Benjamin Hall. Panel: Marie Harf, Jeff Mason, Kevin Roberts and Michele Tafoya.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy … David Folkenflik … Sarah Ellison.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennifer Homendy. Panel: Rick Klein, Laura Barrón-López, Charles Lane and Molly Ball.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.). Panel: Brendan Buck, Maria Teresa Kumar, Jonathan Martin and Marianna Sotomayor.

Glenn Youngkin and Wes Moore want to settle the FBI headquarters dispute on the basketball court.

James Comey is trying out a new look.

Rush Limbaugh’s house in Palm Beach sold for $155 million.

IN MEMORIAM — Jeff Mascott, chair, CEO and founder of Adfero, died at 48 of pancreatic cancer on Feb. 28. A Frank Wolf, J.C. Watts and Fireside alum, Mascott was also a father, marathon runner, soccer player and art lover. A public memorial service will take place this afternoon. Full obituary

OUT AND ABOUT — A “Thank you, Madam Speaker!” event last night at the St. Regis featured an introduction from second gentleman Doug Emhoff for Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, remarks from Sophia Bush and a performance by the Resistance Revival Chorus. SPOTTED: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), Julia Brownley (D-Calif.), Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.), Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Fatima Goss Graves, Shaunna Thomas, Mary Kay Henry, Jocelyn Frye, Alexis McGill Johnson, Dawn Huckelbridge, Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner, Jenn Stowe, Raul Alvillar and Karen Finney.

— SPOTTED at Suspicious Package’s 15-year anniversary party and performance at Madam’s Organ last night, with band members Tim Burger, Bryan Greene, Josh Meyer, Christina Sevilla and Tom Toles: George Conway, Matt Kaminski, Glenn Simpson, Jeff Dufour, Steve Rochlin, Raquel Krähenbühl, Rodell and Sheena Mollineau, Molly Ball and David Kihara, Michael DiRienzo, Doug Heye, Indira Lakshmanan, Nihal Krishan, Marc Raimondi, Mark Paustenbach, Peter Cherukuri, Neil Grace, Cale Brown and Ali Dukakis.

TRANSITIONS — Chris Hayden is joining the Treasury Department as a senior spokesperson focusing on domestic finance, including crypto and debt limit issues. He most recently was comms director at the DCCC. … Nate Hochman is joining the Republican Party of Florida, per NYT’s Jonathan Swan. He previously has been a staff writer at National Review. … Jen Daskal will be principal deputy legal adviser, associate counsel to the president and special assistant to the president at the NSC. She most recently was deputy/acting general counsel at DHS. …

… Scott Levy is now senior oversight counsel for the Senate HELP Committee. He previously was senior health counsel for Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). … Julius Court is now COO of Conservation International. He previously was deputy high commissioner and development director to Kenya for the U.K.

WEDDINGS — Maria Martirosyan, senior legislative assistant for Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), and Tadeh Issakhanian, a climate and transportation leader at Deloitte and a Jim Costa alum, got married March 3 at the Grand Venue in LA. They met on Capitol Hill when they were both unpaid interns, she for Ami Bera and he for Costa. Pics … SPOTTED: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and Mary Hodge, Bertha Guerrero, Samuel Negatu, Lawrence Manzi, and Andrew Underwood and Rachel Van Horn.

— Zachary Bookman, co-founder and CEO of OpenGov, and Julia Hunter, a registered nurse, got married Saturday at the Promise for Justice Initiative’s Industrial Garden in New Orleans. Then the Knockaz brass band led a Second Line parade to the reception at Hotel Peter & Paul. The couple met on Hinge. Pic by Michaella Jelin

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Hannah Hankins, comms director for former President Barack Obama and an Obama White House alum, and Bartlett Jackson, senior manager of public affairs at Sunrun and an Obama WH alum, recently welcomed Evelyn Auban Hankins Jackson. Pic … Another pic

— Cooper Ehrendreich, a policy associate at Husch Blackwell Strategies, and Nada Schnall, an administrative specialist with Montgomery County Recreation, welcomed Zayn Ehrendreich on Wednesday.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: CNN’s Jim Sciutto and Mike Callahan … Randy White … Jon Haber of Cascade Strategy … Bill Nichols … POLITICO’s Brad Dayspring, Arek Sarkissian, Nicole Adams, Chithra Subramanian, Kathryn Johnson and Dylon Jones … Carrie Filipetti … States Newsroom’s Jane Norman … Jean Cornell … NPR’s Ron Elving … Vernon Loeb of Inside Climate News … Kevin McKeon … Alyse Nelson of Vital Voices Global Partnership … NYT’s Danny Hakim … Matt Morrison of Working America … Christie Roberts … Chris Corcoran … Matt Jessee of Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner … Alex Treadway ... Cary Hatch … Urban Institute’s Olivia Dunn … CNBC’s David Faber … Twitter’s Biz Stone … John Murray of Monument Advocacy … Bill Van Saun of the Senate Veterans Affairs Dems … BCW’s Talia La Schiazza

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