With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

JUST POSTED — “The Dangerous Journey of John Eastman,” by Garrett Epps in The Washington Monthly: “How a mild-mannered law professor became the architect of a scheme to overturn a presidential election.”

WAITING FOR ALVIN (AND FANI AND JACK) — The Republican presidential primary is shaping up to be a case of déjà vu.

In 2015 into 2016, DONALD TRUMP gained an early lead and never looked back. The hype about a well-funded, twice-elected Florida governor proved to be illusory. Most of Trump’s opponents waited around for someone else to take him down until it was too late. CHRIS CHRISTIE, one of the few Trump opponents who had sharp words for Trump, was too moderate for Republicans. Trump dominated the only thing that seemed to matter: the media’s attention. Most of the GOP’s elite donors, opinion pages, and elected leaders rallied in opposition to Trump (often privately) and prayed that some meteor-like event would destroy his candidacy.

So far in 2023: (1) RON DeSANTIS may be reprising the role of JEB BUSH; (2) NIKKI HALEY and MIKE PENCE (so far) are reprising the role of Trump’s milquetoast challengers, who occasionally swat at him but rarely damage him; (3) Chris Christie is reprising the role of … Chris Christie; (4) Trump is once again flooding social media, email inboxes and cable news with his own content; and (5) many Republicans are once again looking to the sky for meteors, this time in the form of criminal indictments.

A lot has been said recently about 1 and 2. Let’s dig into a few developments regarding 3, 4, and 5.

— The former New Jersey governor attracted a Trump-skeptical audience at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire yesterday and he went after Trump with by far the most aggressive stump speech of any candidate or potential candidate.

• POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky … “Christie challenged Republicans to find someone who can do to Trump ‘what I did to MARCO’ RUBIO — a callback to his 2016 debate-stage evisceration of the Republican senator from Florida — ‘because that’s the only thing that’s going to defeat’ Trump. ‘You have to be fearless, because he will come back — and right at you,’ Christie said. ‘And that means you need to think about who’s got the skill to do that, and who’s got the guts to do that, because it’s not going to end nicely.’”

• AP’s Holly Ramer … “Trump will never step aside quietly, said Christie, who is mulling another run himself. … ‘Donald Trump said a couple of weeks ago, “I am your retribution.” Guess what everybody? No thanks. No dice,’ Christie said Monday. ‘He doesn’t want to be my retribution. That’s baloney. The only person he cares about is him.’”

• NYT’s Trip Gabriel … “Yet for all that Mr. Christie sounded ready to enter the fray, there are unanswered questions. Unlike some other potential candidates, he has no campaign team in waiting. He has spoken to heavyweight donors at Republican retreats in Texas and Georgia, but he is not raising money because there is no campaign to give to. Most crucial is the question of whether there is a lane in the Republican primary contest for such an outspoken critic of Mr. Trump — who has the avid support of about one in three primary voters.”

— Down in Mar-a-Lago, SEAN HANNITY visited Trump and devoted the entire hour of his show last night to a Trump interview, ending the soft ban on Trump at Fox News. Trump had a lot to say.

• On STORMY DANIELS … “I never had a relationship with her. I never had an affair with her. It’s all made up.”

• On the now-deleted Truth Social post showing him with a baseball bat next to the Manhattan DA … “I put up a story. We didn’t see pictures. We put up a story that was very exculpatory, very good story from the standpoint of what we’re talking about. And they put up a picture of me [with a baseball bat from a White House event]. Then they put next to that picture a picture of ALVIN BRAGG. I didn’t do it. They did it.”

• On his infamous Truth Social post about “potential death & destruction” … “I didn’t say do something bad. I say I am afraid that people will do something because people are very angry about it.”

• On the politics of the FBI raid … “I think the raid on Mar-a-Lago did backfire badly on them. I had some people that weren’t my supporters that are now supporters because of the raid.”

• On his views on mail-in voting … “I never changed anything. What I did is say mail-in ballots are automatically corrupt. If you have mail-in ballots you’re gonna have very dishonest elections.”
  
• On DeSantis … “I think people do care about loyalty. When you help somebody, really help them, I mean, get him in, and then he announces that essentially he’s going to run against you. … But he’s getting crushed now in the polls, because he did a little thing like voting against Social Security, voting against Medicare. His numbers aren’t very good on COVID.”

• On the war in Ukraine … “I will have it solved in 24 hours with [VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY and with [VLADIMIR] PUTIN, and there’s a very easy negotiation to take place, but I don’t want to tell you what it is because then I can’t use that negotiation. It’ll never work. But it’s a very easy negotiation to take place. I will have it solved within one day, a peace between them.”

— Meanwhile, in Manhattan, the meteor watch continues.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite bits from Christie in New Hampshire and Trump on “Hannity”: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

POLITICO NEWS — A hearty congratulations to our colleagues Josh Gerstein, Alex Ward, Peter Canellos, Hailey Fuchs, Heidi Przybyla, Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein, who were honored with the Toner Prize for Excellence in National Political Reporting by Syracuse University’s Newhouse School yesterday for POLITICO’s extensive reporting on the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the fallout that ensued.

“A bombshell scoop with seismic repercussions for the third branch of government. Cautiously written to stick to the facts. Revelatory follow-ups on conservative outsiders trying to influence conservative Justices. This reporting took courage and professionalism,” judge Ann Compton said of our colleagues’ work.

Here’s how Josh summed up the work in his acceptance speech: “Over the past years it now seems so many of the major policy decisions on abortion, health insurance, climate change, guns are resolved in the courts and often at the Supreme Court. In fact, it often seems like litigation has replaced legislation as the preferred means of advancing one’s agenda in this country. Whether that’s healthy or unhealthy in a democracy is a valid topic for debate, but what’s clear is that we in the media need to up our game covering the third branch of government.”

SPOTTED at the ceremony at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, where Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) delivered a keynote speech and CNN’s Abby Phillip served as emcee: Josh Gerstein and June Shih, Alex Ward and Christine Hilt, Anita Kumar, Matt Kaminski, Hailey Fuchs, Heidi Przybyla, Peter Canellos, Elena Schneider, Holly Otterbein, Luiza Savage, Sudeep Reddy, Annie Connell-Bryan, Marty Kady and Eun Kim. ProPublica and The Texas Tribune won honorable mention in the national category for their reporting on political activity of churches and the potential impact on candidates and campaigns, and Phil Williams of Nashville’s WTVF-TV was also honored for local political reporting for his work covering political influence peddling in Tennessee. Pic of the POLITICO winners … Another pic

MORE POLITICO NEWS — Three big personnel announcements this morning: National Political Correspondent David Siders will be politics editor. New York City Hall bureau chief Sally Goldenberg is now a politics reporter with a focus on DeSantis and the 2024 primary. And Jen Haberkorn is returning to POLITICO from the Los Angeles Times, joining the White House team to cover the Biden administration from the vantage point of policymakers on Capitol Hill.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

2024 WATCH

THE TURNING TABLES — “Pro-DeSantis Super PAC Hires Another Former Trump Aide,” by NYT’s Michael Bender: “MATT WOLKING, the deputy communications director for Mr. Trump’s previous campaign, has joined the super PAC, Never Back Down, as strategic communications director. … Most recently, he was vice president of communications at Axiom Strategies, the company run by JEFF ROE, a political consultant who joined the pro-DeSantis super PAC this month.”

DINGING DeSANTIS — “DeSantis draws second ethics complaint over presidential ramp-up,” by Gary Fineout

MORE POLITICS

THE THIEL DEAL — “Peter Thiel’s Secretive Spending,” by Important Context’s Walker Bragman on Substack: “According to its 2021 IRS Form 990, [PETER THIEL’s] foundation gave $4.2 million to DonorsTrust. The organizations that may have received his money remain unknown.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

STUCK IN THE MUD — “Biden’s nominees hit the Senate skids,” by Burgess Everett, Daniella Diaz and Daniel Lippman: “It looked at the beginning of the year like Democrats would have an easier time confirming Biden picks, having gained a seat last fall after a historically lengthy run in a 50-50 Senate. But this Congress has brought a host of new challenges despite that padded margin for Biden’s party. Two high-profile Biden administration hopefuls have withdrawn in the past month alone. The president’s Labor Department pick faces a tough road to confirmation. And the administration is in danger of a first: having to abandon a judicial nominee due to tepid Democratic support.”

BIDEN RESPONDS TO LATEST SHOOTING — “Biden renews push to ban assault weapons in wake of Nashville shooting,” by Kierra Frazier

CONGRESS

THE TRUMP EFFECT — “Top Republicans balk at Trump highlighting Jan. 6 rioters, calling it politically unwise,” by NBC’s Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong: “Some disagreed with his judgment in playing a video that exalts those who took part in the attack on the Capitol and were arrested, rejecting the narrative in pro-Trump circles that the rioters were ‘peaceful’ protesters. Other Republicans said it is an unwise political strategy for Trump to focus on the attempted insurrection as he seeks a comeback bid in 2024.”

MAJORITY RULES — “Targeting Mayorkas, G.O.P. Takes Its Immigration Message to the Border,” by NYT’s Karoun Demirjian in Pharr, Texas: “During the ride-along patrols held before these congressional excursions, Republicans have struggled to produce visual evidence of the crisis. … Yet the lack of physical proof has not deterred Republicans from laying blame for the country’s border challenges squarely at the feet of Mr. Mayorkas, who is expected to field more Republican attacks when he testifies on Tuesday before the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

CRUZ CONTROL — “Ted Cruz helped kill Biden’s FAA nominee. Now he has thoughts about a replacement,” by Alex Daugherty: “Acting Administrator BILLY NOLEN, a former airline pilot who led the FAA’s safety office, has already gotten a public endorsement from Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), who predicted during a hearing this month that he would ‘get confirmed quickly.’ Some people in the aviation industry have also called Nolen an obvious choice, given his experience as a pilot and safety executive and his pledges to address a recent spike in near-collisions among planes.”

PULLOUT FALLOUT — “House GOP to subpoena Blinken over Afghanistan dissent cable,” by AP’s Farnoush Amiri

HEADS UP — Bloomberg’s Emily Wilkins (@emrwilkins): “JAY POWELL will address the Republican Study Committee - largest group of House R’s - at their Wednesday meeting.”

TRUMP CARDS

PLUS ÇA CHANGE — “Trump extends election-rigging myth to his potential criminal charges,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Hannah Knowles: At his Texas rally Saturday, “Trump repeatedly emphasized — even more than in last year’s rallies for the midterms — his false insistence that the 2020 election was stolen from him. But he added a new twist: that his political opponents were now bent on rigging the next election against him through the prospect of criminal charges. ‘This is their new form of trying to beat people at the polls,’ Trump elaborated to reporters on his flight home from the rally, according to a recording obtained by The Washington Post. ‘This is worse than stuffing the ballot boxes, which they did.’”

HISTORY LESSON — “FBI Releases Files on Ivana Trump,” by Bloomberg’s Jason Leopold, Ryan Teague Beckwith and Mike Dorning: “Donald Trump’s first wife, Ivana, was under an FBI counterintelligence inquiry into allegations about her connections in her home country of Czechoslovakia in the 1990s, according to excerpts from her FBI file obtained by Bloomberg News.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “Justices poised to uphold federal ban on encouraging illegal immigration,” by Josh Gerstein: “Most of the justices seemed to accept that the statute — which imposes up to five years in prison for encouraging or inducing an unlawful immigrant to remain in the U.S. — could be read to intrude on free-speech rights.”

— “Supreme Court won’t review GOP’s Kansas congressional map,” by AP’s John Hanna

POLICY CORNER

GETTING THE STORY STRAIGHT — “The military’s blame game over the Chinese spy balloon spills into the open,” by Lara Seligman and Lee Hudson: “Last week, a four-star general told senators that he wasn’t directly asked for his advice until days after the object had headed over land. Yet a Pentagon spokesperson later told POLITICO the general did provide recommendations and updates throughout the crisis. Now Republican senators are highlighting the discrepancies, using the rift to fault the administration for what they say has been a series of missteps that led to the debacle and adds to their list of questions about what went wrong.”

HACK JOB — “Biden Restricts Use of Commercial Hacking Tools by U.S. Agencies,” by WSJ’s Dustin Volz

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “U.S. wants allies to line up against China. Europe is starting to listen,” by Phelim Kine and Stuart Lau: “With urgency like never before, [European governments] are restricting exports of chip-making equipment to China, banning TikTok on government devices and pushing protectionist trade policy. Even long-time holdout Germany, the European Union’s biggest economy and a heavy investor in China, is starting to question its business-first ethos.”

Related reads: “Russian body armor on the battlefield in Ukraine has links to China,” by Erin Banco and Steven Overly … “After Doling Out Huge Loans, China Is Now Bailing Out Countries,” by NYT’s Keith Bradsher

BEHIND THE SCENES — “Inside the U.S. Pressure Campaign Over Israel’s Judicial Overhaul,” by NYT’s David Sanger: “In the 48 hours before Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU reluctantly delayed his effort to overhaul the Israeli judiciary, his government was bombarded by warnings from the Biden administration that he was imperiling Israel’s reputation as the true democracy at the heart of the Middle East.”

Related reads: “Biden finds his limits on Israel,” by Nahal Toosi … “As Israel erupts, Biden faces politically volatile pressures,” by WaPo’s Toluse Olorunnipa and John Hudson

RUSSIA’S SABER-RATTLING — “Putin is trying to distract with fresh nuclear threat, Western officials say,” by Erin Banco

STANDING DOWN — “Biden Officials Hold Off on More Airstrikes in Syria, for Now,” by NYT’s Eric Schmitt

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE LATEST IN NASHVILLE — “‘Truly horrific’: Nashville mourns after mass shooting at elementary school,” by the Nashville Tennessean’s Rachel Wegner, Molly Davis and Keith Sharon

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — “From drag shows to pronouns: Florida GOP takes aim at LGBTQ issues,” by Andrew Atterbury and Arek Sarkissian in Tallahassee

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Gov. Roy Cooper signs N.C. Medicaid expansion into law. But it comes with an asterisk,” by the Raleigh News & Observer’s Dawn Baumgartner Vaughan: “The bill’s passage is a bipartisan victory, but … Republican bill writers tied it to the state budget.”

MEDIAWATCH

DRAMA AT THE GRAY LADY — “NY Times Fires Off Warning to Staffers After Trans Coverage Brouhaha,” by The Daily Beast’s Lachlan Cartwright and Corbin Bolies: “After weeks of hauling staffers who signed it into meetings with high-level editors CAROLYN RYAN and MARC LACEY — meetings described to Confider as intimidating ‘tongue-lashing’ sessions — management sent written warnings to around 20 staffers, accusing them of conspiring against the paper and endangering their co-workers.”

OFF THE GRID — “Grid News’ website to shutter,” by Axios’ Sara Fischer: “The Messenger’s team is currently interviewing Grid employees for roles at The Messenger, with the hope that most of the company’s editorial talent can join the startup, a source told Axios.”

DEVELOPING — “CNN Finalizing Deal to Add Gayle King as It Hits Lowest Ratings in Decades,” by WSJ’s Isabella Simonetti

VALLEY TALK

MUSK READS — “The secret list of Twitter VIPs getting boosted over everyone else,” by Platformer’s Zoë Schiffer … “Leaked code, blocked journalists, and billions gone: It’s just another few days in late Twitter,” by Nieman Lab’s Joshua Benton … “Elon Musk says Twitter’s For You page will only recommend verified accounts,” by The Verge’s Mitchell Clark and Jay Peters

Steven Van Zandt caught up with Jamie Raskin and Robert Costa ahead of last night’s Springsteen show.

Idris Elba and Sheryl Lee Ralph accompanied Kamala Harris on her visit to Ghana yesterday.

Jill Biden spoke at the National League of Cities’ Congressional City Conference.

OUT AND ABOUT — The National Medal of Honor Museum hosted a celebration yesterday evening at the Library of Congress to mark the 160th anniversary of the Medal of Honor, with 16 Medal of Honor recipients. SPOTTED: Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Blake Moore (R-Utah), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), John Breaux, Trent Lott, Chris Cassidy, Charlotte Jones, Ross Perot Jr., Jake Tapper, Anna Palmer, Wally Brewster, Edith Gregson and Erik Smith.

TRANSITIONS — Theresa Lou is now senior policy adviser to the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. She previously was Democratic staff director for the House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific subcommittee. … Joshua May is now deputy White House liaison at the Department of Transportation. He most recently was special assistant to the chief of staff at the Office of Management and Budget. … Anthony Reyes is now a special assistant at USTR. He previously was a legislative aide for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). …

… Maya Valentine is now comms director for Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.). She previously was press secretary for Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). … Matt Shapanka is now special counsel at Covington & Burling’s Public Policy and Election & Political Law practices. He previously was chief counsel for the Senate Rules and Administration Committee and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Matt Fisher is now press secretary for Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.). He most recently was Ohio press secretary for the RNC.

WEEKEND WEDDING — John Lin, senior counsel for the House Energy and Commerce Committee and a Senate Commerce Committee alum, and Caroline Ponseti, senior director for the Herald Group, got married this weekend at District Winery. The two met online in the first week of the pandemic. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) (7-0) and Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) (41) … CBS’ Ed O’Keefe and Bob Kovach … Fox News’ Todd Piro … Tevi Troy … Cheryl Oldham ... Ricky Moxley ... Aaron Davis of the International Code Council … Hank Paulson ... Tim Phelps … Ted Verrill of Rep. Julia Letlow’s (R-La.) office … Peter Ambler ... POLITICO’s Rex Willis, Danielle Banks and Abbey Sattele … Lee Hancock ... Jake Adelstein … Keith Nahigian … Bill Gertz … Alexander Grieve ... James Singer ... Janine Benner … former Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) (9-0) … former Reps. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Kai Kahele (D-Hawaii) … Evan Allison of Bullpen Strategy Group … Florida AG Ashley Moody

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