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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

TREND WATCH — Per FiveThirtyEight, President JOE BIDEN’s average approval rating is now 44.1%, the highest it’s been since October 2021.

IS BEST DEFENSE A GOOD OFFENSE? — January is a time of new beginnings in Washington. A new Congress. A new Republican-led House. A new speaker, KEVIN McCARTHY. New investigations into Biden by GOP-helmed committees.

And now, in light of all of the above, there’s a new effort from the White House to go on offense against Republicans like never before.

Like so many Washington trends these days, it started with a tweet.

“It’s a giant tax cut for rich tax cheats. Bill #1 from the new House GOP,” RON KLAIN, the very online White House chief of staff, wrote in a Monday afternoon tweet about an effort to roll back Biden’s IRS funding boost. Later that evening, VP KAMALA HARRISechoed the sentiment, accusing House Republicans of “rushing to … allow too many millionaires, billionaires and corporations to cheat the system.”

On its face, those messages can seem fairly run-of-the-mill. But a closer look reveals the change at hand — one informed by a few key calculations:

1. The era of big bipartisan successes on the Hill is likely over (for now).

In the run-up to the midterms, Biden and his allies consistently called out Republicans on a wide array of issues. But given a 50-50 Senate and the reality of needing some GOP support to advance a legislative agenda, there was reluctance to go all-out in framing Republicans as the enemy.

Those days are gone — though the White House promises Biden is ready to cut bipartisan deals with the GOP.

A Republican House is unlikely to advance any of Biden’s legislative priorities heading into a presidential election, and a Democratic Senate is equally unlikely to rubber-stamp any of McCarthy’s. The reality is that there are a small number of issues with room for bipartisan legislative success ahead of 2024; when it comes to going after Republicans, there’s not much benefit to keeping the powder dry.

2. Most legislative efforts will aim to frame the debate, not enact laws.

This is a reality that both Republicans and Democrats understand, given the split control of the Hill. To cite just one example, House Republicans know that the abortion-related bills they passed without any Democratic votes on Wednesday stand no shot of becoming law; it was a messaging exercise and an effort to show that they were living up to their campaign-season promises.

—Related read:“GOP sticks to its abortion playbook as House acts,” by Ben Leonard

And as Republicans eagerly move to show they’re fighting Biden and advancing a conservative agenda, Biden and his team are eager to use those efforts to draw a contrast.

“[President Biden] believes that an important part of that process is being honest with his colleagues and the American people about disagreements, like his opposition to preventing wealthy tax cheats from foisting the tax burden onto middle-class families or subjecting our military to budget cuts,” White House deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES said in a statement when asked about the “tax cheat” messaging on display this week.

3. The White House’s target audience has shifted.

Bates’ statement is instructive in what it suggests about the White House’s intended audience. Where 2021 and 2022 saw Biden locked in on any number of issues popular with the Democratic base (voting rights, for instance, or the components of the Build Back Better package), the White House’s first messaging effort out of the gate with a GOP-controlled House is not aimed squarely at his fellow Democrats. (Indeed, “subjecting our military to budget cuts” isn’t entirely unpopular among progressives.)

Instead, it’s aimed at a more centrist audience — a group of voters that will be pivotal in 2024 if, as expected, Biden seeks reelection.

“When you have Republicans … in governing positions and they behave [this] way, it's pretty powerful to just point a very sharp finger at what they're doing and say, ‘Is this really the kind of America you want to live in or the kind of people you want in these positions?’” one Biden ally put it to us recently.

And so you can expect to hear even more about “MAGA Republicans.”

Yes, it prompted eyerolls in the political press, but Biden’s inveighing against “ultra-MAGA” Republicans proved useful in 2022 because it tethered GOP candidates to DONALD TRUMP, who remains toxic in large swaths of the country.

In fact, on Wednesday, the Congressional Integrity Project convened a strategy call featuring more than 125 top Dem strategists and advocates, and shared talking points suggesting that “MAGA Republicans who now run the House have the wrong priorities. They would rather focus on political stunts and partisan attacks than work on real problems like inflation and the economy.” An exclusive look at the talking points … The presentation deck

In 2022, that approach worked better for Biden than many people expected. Now, with the GOP in power in the House and Trump already in the 2024 race, expect even more of it.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Is there anything you can imagine the Republican House, Democratic Senate and Biden White House working together on? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

REMEMBERING BLAKE HOUNSHELL — We’re still mourning our former Playbook editor, most recently of the NYT, who died Tuesday. His colleagues from the Times and POLITICO have set up this GoFundMe, and we’d be grateful if you would consider helping his wife and young kids at this difficult time.

If you or a loved one are having thoughts of suicide, call or text 988 to reach the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline.

NUMBER OF THE DAY— “Less than 40 percent of people over 65 have taken the updated booster shot that became available in the fall, according to the CDC, leaving millions with little protection against the latest strain sweeping the U.S.,” write Megan Messerly and Adam Cancryn.

THE COMEBACK CONTINUES—“Trump prepares to open next phase of 2024 campaign in South Carolina,” by Alex Isenstadt: “[DONALD] TRUMP is slated to make an appearance in late January in Columbia, S.C. It will not be a rally, his advisers said, but will be a more 'intimate' event where he will roll out his leadership operation in a state which hosts a key early Republican primary contest.”

DOCU-DRAMA—“Biden aides find second batch of classified documents at new location,” by NBC’s Carol Lee and Ken Dilanian: “Since November, after the discovery of documents with classified markings in his former office, Biden aides have been searching for any additional classified materials that might be in other locations he used, said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details about the ongoing inquiry. …

“The classification level, number and precise location of the additional documents was not immediately clear. It also was not immediately clear when the additional documents were discovered and if the search for any other classified materials Biden may have from the Obama administration is complete.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

ALL POLITICS

MAJORITY RULES — “Dems to Tester and Manchin: Run in 2024, save our majority,” by Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “The senators’ respective moves will determine how both parties allocate their financial resources in what’s expected to be a tough cycle for Democrats. As they wait on [Montana Sen. JON TESTER and West Virginia Sen. JOE MANCHIN], the party must sort through its defense of seats in battlegrounds like Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan, where longtime Democratic Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW is retiring. There are scant pick-up opportunities.”

UGLY TURN —“Whisper campaign about RNC chair candidate’s Sikh faith roils campaign,” by Natalie Allison: “Two supporters of [HARMEET] DHILLON, who is challenging incumbent RNC chairwoman RONNA McDANIEL, told POLITICO that McDaniel allies have brought up Dhillon’s religious affiliation with them in recent weeks. One of the two said that a fellow RNC committee member, who is openly supporting McDaniel in the race, brought up concerns about Dhillon’s ‘Sikh faith’ during a recent phone conversation.”

SUNSHINE STATE SHAKEUP — “Race for Florida GOP chair heats up ahead of 2024,” by Matt Dixon

THE WHITE HOUSE

NIGHT OF THE HUNTER —NYT’s Adam Entous, Michael Schmidt and Katie Benner go deep on the HUNTER BIDEN saga, trying to untangle the messy web surrounding the president’s son, which is the subject of congressional Republicans’ intense interest.

The summary: “An examination by The New York Times of [U.S. Attorney for Delaware DAVID] WEISS’s investigation and Hunter Biden’s journey to this juncture does not provide either side with the narrative they would prefer. It highlights how he aligned himself with foreign actors eager to leverage their connections to him to further their own interests. But it also underscores how far removed the most likely legal charges against him are from the issues most aggressively promoted by Republicans — and how his father’s opponents have often twisted or exaggerated the story of his descent to score political points.”

The most likely charges: “Investigators have similarly sought information about interactions between Hunter Biden’s business associates and his father. But Mr. Weiss, people familiar with the investigation say, appears to be focused on a less politically explosive set of possible charges stemming from his failure to meet filing deadlines for his 2016 and 2017 tax returns, and questions about whether he falsely claimed at least $30,000 in deductions for business expenses. Mr. Weiss is also said to be considering charging Hunter Biden, who has openly acknowledged his years of struggle with drugs and alcohol, with lying on a U.S. government form that he filled out to purchase a handgun in 2018.”

FLOTUS FILES —“Jill Biden ‘feeling well’ after two cancerous lesions removed during hospital trip,” by CNN’s Kate Bennett

CONGRESS

SECRETS, SECRETS ARE NO FUN — The buzz on Capitol Hill this week has centered on a supposed “secret” three-page deal between McCarthy and the holdouts who delivered him the gavel. However, the existence of the document has been disputed, and the reality is way more complicated. Our colleagues Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferris break it down this morning: “There’s plenty of paper flying around summarizing handshake deals between the speaker and his members, and some GOP lawmakers have muddled their leaders’ message by talking candidly about what they secured in exchange for their speaker votes.”

The effect: “That boasting has heightened worries within the conference about working together in good faith for the next two years. Nearly a full week after McCarthy’s battle played out in extraordinarily public fashion, lawmakers in his conference are still striving to learn details of what’s been promised and to whom.”

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS —“George Santos was paid for work at company accused of Ponzi scheme later than previously known,” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Emma Brown: “[New York Rep. GEORGE] SANTOS did not divulge any income from the company, Florida-based Harbor City Capital, on a financial disclosure form required of all federal candidates. The payments the lawyer described to The Washington Post, which have not been previously reported, indicate that Santos received money at least a month after he has said he left the firm — and mere weeks before registering a business called the Devolder Organization that he has claimed as the basis for his wealth.”

—“George Santos’s Secret Résumé: A Wall Street Star With a 3.9 G.P.A.,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos: “The résumé Mr. Santos handed [to the Nassau County Republican Committee] was impressive, particularly for a political neophyte. He claimed to have graduated in the top 1 percent of his class at Baruch College, earned an M.B.A. at New York University and more than doubled revenue as a project manager at Goldman Sachs, according to a copy of the two-page document obtained by The New York Times.”

— JUST POSTED:“The Mysterious, Unregistered Fund That Raised Big Money for Santos,” by NYT’s Alexandra Berzon and Grace Ashford: “The Federal Election Commission said it had no evidence that RedStone Strategies was registered as a political group, and there do not appear to be any records documenting its donors, contributions or spending.”

Don't miss Santos' latest lie: that he was a member of a championship volleyball team at Baruch, the college that he did not attend. Read the résumé … Watch a clip describing the volleyball claim

—“George Santos Faces Calls to Resign From 4 G.O.P. Congressmen,” by NYT’s Michael Gold and Grace Ashford

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

SUPPLEMENTAL SUBPOENA —“Trump campaign officials got subpoena asking new questions about Jan. 6,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Devlin Barrett and Rosalind Helderman

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH —“Supreme Court lets New York enforce gun law during lawsuit,” by AP’s Jessica Gresko

FOR YOUR RADAR —“Appeals court seems poised to void part of sex trafficking law,” by Josh Gerstein

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD — “Russia’s cyberattacks aim to ‘terrorize’ Ukrainians,” by Maggie Miller

SANCTIONS UPDATE — “U.S., Allies Prepare Fresh Sanctions on Russian Oil Industry,” by WSJ’s Andrew Duehren

THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW — “Russia Replaces Commander for Ukraine War, as Signs of Dissension Grow,” by NYT’s Anatoly Kurmanaev

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “China Likely to Name U.S. Specialist as Next Ambassador to Washington,”by WSJ’s Keith Zhai in Singapore and Chun Han Wong in Hong Kong: “China is likely to nominate XIE FENG, a vice foreign minister and a U.S. specialist, as its new ambassador to Washington, according to people familiar with the matter, continuing a gradual tempering of the abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ style that has defined Chinese diplomacy in recent years.”

THE LATEST IN BRAZIL — “Brazil rioters plotted openly online, pitched huge ‘party,’”by AP’s Joshua Goodman and David Klepper

— Exclusive NYT video:“The Moment the Brazil Rioters Broke Through,” by Jack Nicas, André Spigariol, Flávia Milhorance and Ana Ionova

THE ECONOMY

FED UP — “In the battle against inflation, it’s Jay Powell v. Wall Street,” by Victoria Guida: “Fed officials are signaling that they’re determined to keep their vise-like grip on the economy through the end of 2023.”

RECESSION RECKONING — “What’s worse than a recession? A recession with tax hikes,” by Brian Faler

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

CALIFORNIA’S CONTINUED CLUBBING — “California’s onslaught of storms is far from over. Will it ever end?” by WaPo’s Matthew Cappucci

MEDIAWATCH 

YOWZA — “Blockbuster NYTimes Story Accidentally Leaked Phone Numbers of Russian Soldiers Criticizing War,” by Vice’s Joseph Cox: “Some of these people were providing a frank assessment of the ongoing Ukraine war, and blunt criticisms of their superiors including President [VLADIMIR] PUTIN himself. The exposure potentially put the people at risk of reprisal from their own government and other third parties.”

YIKES — “Hackers access Guardian staff salary, passport information,” by Semafor’s Max Tani

VALLEY TALK

STATUS UPDATE —“Inside Facebook’s high-stakes debate to reinstate Trump after a two-year ban,” by CNN’s Donie O'Sullivan, Clare Duffy, Kristen Holmes, Gabby Orr and Brian Fung: “Facebook initially said its ban of Trump would be indefinite. But after a public consultation and deliberation with experts, the company announced in June 2021 that Trump’s ban would be reassessed in January 2023, two years after the initial decision.”

Rudy Giuliani might be auditioning for a new job on Animal Planet.

Martin Heinrich and Joe Manchin had some banter on Twitter over stovetops — and Heinrich showed off his gas-free “elk chilindron stew”.

Sarah Huckabee Sandersbanned the term “Latinx” on her first day in office as Arkansas governor.

MAJOR MEDIA MOVE — “Noah Oppenheim Steps Down as NBC News President in Leadership Reorganization,” by WSJ’s Talal Ansari: “Rebecca Blumenstein, a top New York Times editor, will become president of editorial at NBC News, a new role overseeing all editorial, newsgathering, ‘Meet the Press,’ ‘Dateline’ and NBC News Studios, said NBCUniversal News Group Chairman Cesar Conde.”

PROGRAMMING NOTE —“CNN announces revamped daytime lineup with new show format,” by CNN’s Oliver Darcy

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party in honor of Tim Wu’s departure from the White House to return to Columbia Law School on Wednesday evening at the Hay Adams: White House deputy COS Bruce Reed, FTC Chair Lina Khan, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, Assistant AG Jonathan Kanter, FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Slade Bond, Sarah Miller, Matt Stoller, Kevin Joseph, Alan Davidson, Kip Wainscott, Cecilia Kang, Colin Crowell, Ryan Tracy, Doha Mekki, Adam Conner, Gus Rossi, Joel Kelsey, Andy Green, Juleanna Glover and Charlie Anderson. Pic

— The International Franchise Association held a kickoff event for the new Congress on Wednesday afternoon in the Rayburn Gold Room. Dogs from Woolfie’s (Pablo, Palmer, Bogey and Reid) accompanied the event, which featured food from Wendy’s (which ran out in 17 minutes), Jimmy John’s and Dunkin’. SPOTTED: Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), Troy Carter (D-La.), Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.), Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Rick Allen (R-Ga.), John Joyce (R-Pa.), Pete Stauber (R-Minn.), Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), Russell Fry (R-S.C.), Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).

—SPOTTED celebrating the announcement of Boris Sanchez’s new dayside show at CNN alongside Brianna Keilar and Jim Sciutto at Causa Amazonia on Wednesday night: Boris Sanchez, Evan Perez, Jeremy Diamond, Jeff Solnet and Noah Gray.

— The Volcker Alliance hosted a dinner and fireside chat with former New York Lt. Gov. Richard Ravitch at the Hotel Monaco on Wednesday night to celebrate the launch of the Richard Ravitch Public Finance Initiative. SPOTTED: Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, Michael Piwowar, Antonio Weiss, Norman Ornstein, Eric Kim, Terry Gerton, Yardena Wolf, Melissa Moye, Shelby Kerns and Sara Mogulescu.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK —Alexandra LaManna is now a senior advisor at the Messina Group and its comms arm Greenbrier. She most recently was assistant press secretary at the White House and was a Day One appointee at the Treasury Department, where she was a senior spokesperson.

TRANSITIONS — Former Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) is now a managing director at Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies, as Olivia Beavers scooped in Congress Minutes. … Emilia Rowland is now comms director and senior adviser for Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.). She previously was press secretary and senior spokesperson for John Fetterman’s Pennsylvania Senate campaign. … Jarryd Rauch is now executive director of Democrats Abroad. He was previously Eastern regional director for the Association of State Democratic Committees at the DNC. …

… Theresa Reed has joined Hance Scarborough as counsel in the federal affairs practice. She previously was comms director for Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.). … David Turner is joining Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s office as comms director. He previously was comms director at the Democratic Governors Association. … Emma Dulaney is now press secretary at DOJ. She previously was strategic adviser and deputy comms director for the House Oversight Committee.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Theo Baker (18) …Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) and Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.) … Jeff Bezos … Ryan Murphy of the House Budget GOP … Michael B. Williams … Pink Sheet’s Sarah Karlin-Smith … American Society of Landscape Architects’ Torey Carter-Conneen … CAP’s Sam Hananel … Danny O’Brien of Fox Corp. … Anne Mosle … Doug Thornell of SKDK … Stephanie Taylor of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Progressive Change Institute … Sarah Swanson of K&L Gates … Christiane Amanpour … Howard Stern … AIPAC’s Jonathan Schulman … Madeline Osburn … WTOP’s Debra Feinstein … Basil Smikle … author John Aloysius Farrell … POLITICO’s Wisam Qabbani … Robin Goodstein of Careerstone Group … Latino Victory’s Nathalie Rayes

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter misspelled the names of Alan Davidson, Emilia Rowland and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.).