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The political world has been reeling all day from the bombshell news that Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA is leaving the Democratic Party, labeling herself instead as an “Arizona independent.” The decision triggered a bevy of questions, some which we’re starting to get answers to:

Q: Will she keep her committees in the upper chamber?

A: Yes. Just before noon, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said in a statement that Sinema “asked me to keep her committee assignments and I agreed.”

“Kyrsten is independent; that’s how she’s always been,” the New York Democrat said. “I believe she’s a good and effective Senator and am looking forward to a productive session in the new Democratic majority Senate.”

Q: Will this ruin her relationship with the Biden administration?

A: So far, no. The White House put out a statement this morning calling Sinema “a key partner on some of the historic legislation President Biden has championed over the last 20 months.”

“We have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her,” press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said. More from Marianne LeVine

But the BIGGEST question surrounding this surprising turn of events has yet to be answered …

Q: Did Sinema just end her political career?

A: TBD. The conventional wisdom of American politics is that the two-party system makes it difficult, albeit not impossible, to win as an independent. In the Senate, BERNIE SANDERS (Vt.) and ANGUS KING (Maine) have done so, but they are pretty much viewed as Democrats by another name, and the state and national party organizations have never marshaled resources to defeat them.

Sinema won’t be in the same boat. She’s bucked her party many a time and made rare alliances with Republicans. While she will be accepting committee seats from Schumer, she appears to be distancing herself from the Democratic caucus, and because of that, she risks being secluded on a political island.

While Biden and Schumer have so far been conciliatory, the state Democratic Party and a potential 2024 challenger, Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO, have not — both attacking her for acting out of self-interest rather than the state’s interest. As Sarah Ferris and Natalie Allison point out in a just-posted story on the political ramifications of Sinema’s move, national party organs are so far staying mum.

If the DSCC, Senate Majority PAC and other heavy hitters stay on the sidelines, or back a Democratic challenger, Sarah and Natalie note the consequences for Sinema could be dire: “While she’s always been a strong fundraiser, she would lack party resources — like a ground game — that are critical for voter turnout, particularly in a sprawling state like Arizona. Republicans in the state, even if some do support her, would not be expected to assist with that.”

On the other hand, the national stakes for Democrats are enormous: The 2024 Senate map is already brutal for them, and a three-way race in Arizona could be a sure formula for a GOP flip. Would Biden and Schumer stand by and allow that to happen?

Already, Sinema is facing blowback.Hailey Fuchs scooped that her digital firm, Authentic, has dropped her as a client. “Authentic has represented Sinema for years. But the firm saw an internal revolt over its work for the senator earlier this year as she voted against several of the Biden administration’s initiatives and refused to support revamping filibuster rules to move legislation on voting rights. One employee wrote in a union message that the person felt that they were ‘doing the devil’s work.’”

At the same time, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver had this to say about her prospects next election: “Sinema was not very popular with anyone, I'm not sure whether today's move increases or decreases her chances of winning another term (I actually suspect decreases) but they were low to begin with and they remain low.” See the polling

Plenty of experts will be slicing and dicing the Arizona electorate and working through various 2024 scenarios in the coming days, weeks and months. But from Sinema’s perspective, switching parties may have been the only logical choice if she wants to extend her political career. By opting out of a Democratic primary, she ensures she would face one tough election rather than two.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK —SACHA HAWORTH, who previously served as comms director for Sinema’s 2018 Senate campaign, is joining the Primary Sinema PAC as a senior advisor. EMILY KIRKLAND, the former executive director of Progress Arizona is also joining the PAC as a senior adviser.

In a tweet this morning, Haworth had harsh words for Sinema, in her first public comments criticizing her former boss: “this is a slap in the face to everyone who broke their backs to get her elected in 2018: thousands of unpaid volunteers who worked night & day for a year because they believed they'd have an ally in the Senate. Sinema is showing us who she's been all along: out for herself.”

MORE SINEMA LINKS: 

Sinema’s op-ed for The Arizona Republic: “Everyday Americans are increasingly left behind by national parties’ rigid partisanship, which has hardened in recent years. Pressures in both parties pull leaders to the edges, allowing the loudest, most extreme voices to determine their respective parties’ priorities and expecting the rest of us to fall in line.”

Gallego’s statement responding to the news: “Whether in the Marine Corps or in Congress, I have never backed down from fighting for Arizonans. And at a time when our nation needs leadership most, Arizona deserves a voice that won’t back down in the face of struggle. Unfortunately, Senator Sinema is once again putting her own interests ahead of getting things done for Arizonans.”

Sinema’s commentary on JOE LIEBERMAN in 2003: “He’s a shame to Democrats. … I don’t even know why he’s running. He seems to want to get Republicans voting for him — what kind of strategy is that?” More from Mother Jones

And, finally, a passage we spotted from Sinema’s 2009 book, “Unite and Conquer: How To Build Coalitions That Win And Last” ($18.95): “What I love most about short-term projects is that each has a distinct beginning and end, with tasks to accomplish in the middle. The project has a purpose and a goal, and my job is to fulfill the purpose and achieve the goal. And before I get bored with the tediousness of the work, it’s over. On the other hand, coalitions that are formed for coalitions’ sake and that last forever without focus or purpose make me want to tear my hair out. … And almost everyone will eventually leave the coalition — most members sooner rather than later.”

Happy Friday afternoon. Send us all your Sinema gossip: [email protected] and [email protected].

GRINER COMES HOME …

FUN ONE — “This Secret Society in Washington, D.C., Has One Agenda: Fly, Eagles, Fly,” by The Ringer’s Bryan Curtis

CONGRESS

McCARTHY’S NIGHTMARE — “House Republicans brace for doomsday scenario if McCarthy falls short of 218 votes for speaker,” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Melanie Zanona: “McCarthy’s supporters are vowing to keep voting for him on multiple ballots, and GOP sources said there are early discussions about a floor strategy for that potential scenario, including whether to recess the House or let the votes keep rolling – no matter how long it takes.

“To prevent that from happening, McCarthy and his team have been engaged in serious talks with a group of conservatives, including over potentially giving them influential committee assignments and more power to drive the legislative process. GOP sources said those negotiations are still early in the process and could ultimately end up giving the group some aspect of what the hardliners desperately want: additional power to seek a sitting speaker’s ouster with a vote on the floor.”

MR. CRYPTO COMES TO WASHINGTON — SAM BANKMAN-FRIED, the embattled FTX founder, said this morning that he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee next week. Mark your calendar: “The hearing is slated for Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Mr. Bankman-Fried will most likely testify remotely,” WSJ’s Caitlin Ostroff reports.

HISTORY REPEATING — “Dems’ final Covid report slams government failures. Congress may repeat them,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein

REPORT CARD — “Big Oil talks ‘transition’ but perpetuates petroleum, House documents say,” by WaPo’s Steven Mufson

BUDGET BATTLE — “IRS Budget Fight Heats Up as Republicans Look to Curb Tax Agency,” by WSJ’s Richard Rubin

FIGHTING ANTISEMTISM — A bipartisan group of more than 40 House lawmakers have signed on to a resolution “condemning antisemitism by public figures,” Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod scoops. “The resolution goes on to condemn rising antisemitism and ‘calls on national faith leaders of all denominations and Americans of influence to join with current and former elected leaders to use their platforms to speak out against antisemitism.’”

THE WHITE HOUSE

WHAT ‘UNION JOE’ IS READING — “Biden’s Labor Cred Risks More Cracks Over Pacific Ports Fight,” by Bloomberg’s Jordan Fabian and Augusta Saraiva: “President Joe Biden celebrated avoiding a disaster when the government stopped a railroad shutdown, but another economy-threatening labor dispute looms on the West Coast. Dockworkers at some of the nation’s busiest ports have worked without a union contract since July 1 and there has been little progress toward a new deal.”

POLICY CORNER

AP INVESTIGATION — “Prison boss beat inmates, climbed ranks,” by Michael Sisak and Michael Balsamo: “An Associated Press investigation has found that the Bureau of Prisons has repeatedly promoted [THOMAS RAY] HINKLE despite numerous red flags, rewarding him again and again over a three-decade career while others who assaulted inmates lost their jobs and went to prison.

“The agency’s new leader defends Hinkle, saying he’s a changed man and a model employee — standing by him even as she promises to work with the Justice Department and Congress to root out staff misconduct. And Hinkle, responding to questions from the AP, acknowledged that he assaulted inmates in the 1990s but said he regrets that behavior and now speaks openly about it “to teach others how to avoid making the same mistakes.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DIFFICULT DECISIONS — “A Rural Hospital’s Excruciating Choice: $3.2 Million a Year or Inpatient Care?” by NYT’s Emily Baumgaertner in Cascade, Idaho: “For 46 million Americans, rural hospitals are a lifeline, yet an increasing number of them are closing. The federal government is trying to resuscitate them with a new program that offers a huge infusion of cash to ease their financial strain. But it comes with a bewildering condition: They must end all inpatient care.”

POLICING IN AMERICA — “Major U.S. police departments plagued by officer-on-officer sexual abuse and retaliation,” by NBC’s Emily Siegel and Simone Weichselbaum: “Sexual harassment and gender discrimination remain rife in some of the country’s largest police departments, and many of those accused of them don’t face significant punishment, according to an NBC News review of more than 60 lawsuits that were settled or won at trial, interviews with more than 15 female officers and an analysis of internal police documents.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE GROWING G-20 — “Biden to call for African Union to permanently join G-20,” by WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb: “Biden next week will announce U.S. support for the African Union to become a permanent member of the Group of 20 nations, a step that would give African nations a long-sought prize and could make it easier for Biden to secure their cooperation on issues like Ukraine and climate change.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

HOW RUSSIA IS FIGHTING — “Russia is providing ‘unprecedented’ military support to Iran in exchange for drones, officials say,” by NBC’s Courtney Kube and Carol Lee: “As part of the enhanced partnership, Russia may be providing Iran with advanced military equipment and components, including helicopters and air defense systems. In the spring, Iranian pilots trained in Russia to fly the Sukhoi Su-35, a Russian fighter jet, which the officials say indicates Iran ‘may begin receiving the aircraft within the next year.’”

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT —Sarah and Bob Nixon hosted a party for Douglas Brinkley’s new book, “Silent Spring Revolution: John F. Kennedy, Rachel Carson, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and the Great Environmental Awakening” ($32), where guests enjoyed a reception with a special book signing and remarks by Brinkley. SPOTTED:Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Margaret Carlson, Maureen Orth, Susan Page, Dave Grimaldi, George Stevens Jr., Francesca Craig, Lyndon Boozer, Tom Quinn, Mary Landrieu and Frank Snellings, Nick Lewis, Emily Lenzner, Leslie and Andrew Cockburn, Conor Kennedy, Diane Dewhirst, Christina Sevilla, Kelley McCormick, Tamera Luzzatto, Kimball Stroud, James Rosen, Lauren Leader and Nancy Bagley.

— SPOTTED at Feldman Strategies’ 10-year anniversary and holiday party at Cork Wine Bar on Thursday night: Debbie Mucarsel Powell, Randi Weingarten, Greg Regan, Heidi Przybyla, Brittany Gibson, Alexi McCammond, David Siegel, Alli Gordon, Paul LeBlanc, David Turner, Geoff Burgan, Emily Trifone, Farah Melendez, Andrew Crook, Will Rasky, Natalia Perez Santos, Skye Perryman, Ianthe Metzger and Lauryn Fanguen.

— SPOTTED at Global Situation Room’s holiday reception Thursday, hosted by Brett Bruen and Johanna Maska: Adam Ereli, Cameron Hume, Patricia Moller, Robert Bole, Angela Greiling Keane, Paul Blake, Nana Sajaia and Darlene Superville. Pic

— The National Confectioners Association hosted its annual Cocktails and Candy Canes reception for members of the Senate Press Secretaries Association and other Beltway guests at La Vie at The Wharf on Thursday night. SPOTTED: John Downs, Christopher “Gindy” Gindlesperger, Brian McKeon, Tess Whittlesey, Karina Borger, Rosemary Boeglin, Samantha Runyon, Stacey Daniels, Nathaniel Sizemore, Ben Garmisa, Blair Taylor, Matthew Haller, Jon Nabavi, Gerald “Chip” Kunde, Norman Ross, Scott Sloofman and Alex Byers.

MEDIA MOVES — Karoun Demirjian is joining NYT as a congressional correspondent. She previously was Pentagon correspondent at WaPo. The announcement … Barbara Starr will be leaving CNN soon once her contract runs out, CNN’s Oliver Darcy reports. … Richard Weinstein will be VP of content for C-SPAN following the retirement of Terry Murphy. Weinstein currently is VP of digital media for C-SPAN. The announcement

TRANSITIONS — Ruth Ward is now director of government affairs for Family Policy Alliance. She previously was director of operations/policy adviser for Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.). … Bradley Watts will be VP for innovation policy for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Innovation Policy Center. He most recently was chief Republican counsel for the Senate Judiciary Intellectual Property Subcommittee.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and Robin Pringle Hickenlooper welcomed Jack Hickenlooper on Thursday, via surrogate. He came in at 10 lbs, 15 oz. More from Colorado Public Radio

CORRECTION: This newsletter has been updated to correct the title of Douglas Brinkley's new book. It is "Silent Spring Revolution: John F. Kennedy, Rachel Carson, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and the Great Environmental Awakening.”