With help from Maggie Miller, Connor O’Brien, Daniel Lippman and Nahal Toosi

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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A former U.S. ambassador claims the State Department did little to get American journalist DANNY FENSTER out of Myanmar, saying on an upcoming podcast that the reporter “would be in jail” if it weren’t for private efforts to secure his release in November 2021 — an allegation State firmly rejects.

CAMERON HUME, a former top U.S. envoy to three countries and now a senior adviser to the Richardson Center nonprofit organization, told the “One Decision” podcast that the State Department quietly resisted outreach by former New Mexico governor and hostage negotiator BILL RICHARDSON to Myanmar’s military junta.

"Richardson postponed [a visit] for a couple of months, and the same thing happened a third time,” Hume said on the episode shared exclusively with NatSec Daily ahead of its Thursday morning release. After State finally approved of a trip, with some assistance from the U.S. embassy in Myanmar, “Richardson raised the case privately with the head of the junta who said, ‘Could you come back in a week?’ So we flew back in a week and we picked up the prisoner. Had this been left to the U.S. government, they'd be sitting there reading their intel reports wondering what to do about it."

Speaking about State Department warnings against uncoordinated private negotiations to get wrongfully imprisoned Americans stateside, Hume said, “Danny Fenster would be in jail out there” had Richardson heeded the agency’s instruction. “When we brought Mr. Fenster back, you can bet they were at the airport to show their solidarity and to claim all of the credit for the fine work they had done."

An important caveat: Hume is tied to the Richardson Center and has every incentive to bolster his organization’s standing. Critics say it helps the outfit’s reputation — and bottom line — to be seen as a force multiplier to State’s hostage-negotiation efforts, especially as it works to secure PAUL WHELAN’s release from Russia.

Still, Hume alleges that State slowed a process that ultimately brought Fenster back to the United States, and it’s a serious charge.

The State Department denies the claim. “From day one of Danny’s detention, our teams in [Myanmar] and the United States worked tirelessly to reunite Danny with his family,” a spokesperson said in a statement, citing the efforts of the U.S. embassy in Rangoon, the office of the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs and consular staffers. “We are grateful to all who helped secure Danny’s release.” The spokesperson was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.

We asked Hume about all this in a separate conversation. “The path State was pursuing on Fenster led nowhere,” he told us without digging into specifics, though he noted the governor has had “good cooperation” with State and the National Security Council in general. “Of course, [Fenster] might have been released at one of the periodic amnesty releases, but that would be purest conjecture.” Hume also encouraged us to “ignore” criticism that his organization sometimes over-glorifies its work to keep the money flowing.

There’s been a narrative tussle between the Richardson Center and State over the group’s importance for years. Diplomats have long questioned the center’s relevance, with some pointing to a New York Times story last year where they claim the outfit took far more credit for TREVOR REED’s release than it deserved.

As MICHAEL CROWLEY reported then: “U.S. officials have never credited Mr. Richardson with any significant role in the release, instead describing their own urgent work to free Mr. Reed once his health began to fail.”

Hume, however, argued the center was instrumental in that case. “On February 23 last year, the governor was in Moscow to press for the release of Reed and Whelan. He reported to the White House what he heard, and within a few weeks a prisoner exchange took place,” he told NatSec Daily.

ALL OF THE THREATS: Happy Annual Threat Assessment day to all who celebrate! NatSec Daily scoured the report and watched the hearing of intelligence leaders in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee so you didn’t have to. Here are the highlights:

On China:

• Per the report, China’s aims to be East Asia’s top power and a major world player will “probably” be hindered by “an aging population, high levels of corporate debt, economic inequality” and resistance to Beijing’s designs on Taiwan.
• Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES’ take: “We do see [China] providing assistance to Russia in the context of the conflict. And we see them in a situation in which they've become increasingly uncomfortable about the level of assistance and not looking to do it as publicly as might otherwise occur and given the reputational costs associated with it.” 
• While the cyber threats from China largely remained the same compared to last year, the new assessment added a worrying line: “If Beijing feared that a major conflict with the United States were imminent, it almost certainly would consider undertaking aggressive cyber operations,” the report reads. The intelligence assessment warned that these attacks would be aimed at deterring “U.S. military action by impeding U.S. decisionmaking, inducing societal panic, and interfering with the deployment of U.S. forces.” This tracks with what CISA chief JEN EASTERLY said recently.

On Russia and Ukraine:

• “We do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains, but [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN most likely calculates that time works in his favor, and that prolonging the war — including with potential pauses in the fighting — may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years,” per Haines.
• Haines again: “The Russians are making incremental progress on Bakhmut, which is not a particularly strategic objective, but are otherwise facing considerable constraints, including personnel and ammunition shortages, dysfunction within the military's leadership exhaustion as well as morale challenges. And even as the Russian offensive continues they are experiencing high casualty rates. Putin is likely better understanding the limits of what his military is capable of achieving, and appears to be focused on more modest military objectives for now.”

AUKUS ANNOUNCEMENT: President JOE BIDEN will unveil the first phase of an ambitious three-nation nuclear submarine deal next to the leaders of the United Kingdom and Australia on Monday in San Diego, Alex reports alongside our own PAUL McLEARY and PHELIM KINE.

The announcement is the culmination of 18 months of negotiations as the three countries figure out how to provide Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. Restrictions on technology transfers and classified nuclear processes have complicated plans ever since the deal — known as AUKUS — was struck in September 2021. Last week, State Department and Pentagon officials briefed House Foreign Affairs Committee members about some of the issues.

British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK and Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE will join Biden for the event on Monday. Local lawmakers who are planning to attend the proceedings still don’t have concrete details about the timing or exact location.

KEEP TARGETING: The Biden administration could further target parts of Russia’s industrial base that are “leaking” into its “military complex,” Deputy Commerce Secretary DON GRAVES tells NatSec Daily.

Graves met last week with European Commissioner URSULA VON DER LEYEN ahead of her chat with Biden in Washington, D.C. this week. He said in a Wednesday interview that they were able to coordinate further on export controls that will restrict Russia’s ability to get parts for its weapons.

“They've had to start breaking apart dishwashers and electric breast pumps to get semiconductors and components so that they could try and keep their military operating,” Graves said.

He told us that VDL expressed no concerns about continued European unity even as the war drags on. “European support isn't going to wane for this effort because the war is in their backyard,” he said. “From her vantage point, I think, they are committed for as long as it takes, just like the United States.”

“We will continue to find additional ways,” to strengthen U.S.-European cooperation on this effort, he previewed.

DOD BLOCKS RUSSIA HAGUE PROBE: The Pentagon is blocking the sharing of information about Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the International Criminal Court, the New York Times’ CHARLIE SAVAGE reports.

“American military leaders oppose helping the court investigate Russians because they fear setting a precedent that might help pave the way for it to prosecute Americans. The rest of the administration, including intelligence agencies and the State and Justice departments, favors sharing the evidence with the court, the officials said. President Biden has yet to resolve the impasse, officials said,” he wrote.

The U.S. has long opposed anything that could inch the Hague closer to probing the action of American troops. The Trump administration sanctioned members of the ICC in 2020 partly to dissuade an investigation into how U.S. military and intelligence personnel treated detainees in Afghanistan and Europe from 2003 to 2004.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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‘TOUGHEN UP’: GOP contender VIVEK RAMASWAMY isn’t concerned about what nickname former President DONALD TRUMP may bestow upon him during the presidential campaign.

“If you can’t handle a little bit of name-calling, you probably shouldn't be representing the United States across the table from XI JINPING. So just toughen up, I think these Republicans need to stop whining about it and get on with it,” Ramaswamy said on Fox News’ Gutfeld! Tuesday night.

It’s possible that Ramaswamy, a self-proclaimed “anti-woke” capitalist, will be able to hold his own in a rap session with Xi, considering his experience as a “libertarian rapper” as an undergrad at Harvard.

According to a Crimson article on his musical endeavors in 2006: “When ‘Da Vek’ goes into hiding, ‘The Chairman’—the nickname coined for Ramaswamy during his tenure at the Harvard Political Union—comes out to play.”

CHARM OFFENSIVE: TikTok is working to assuage the concerns of European security officials about user privacy through its “Project Clover” data processing plan, our own CLOTHILDE GOIJARD and LAURA KAYALI report.

The plan would be similar to “Project Texas,” which was proposed to U.S. lawmakers in 2020 and aimed to allow for data processing on American soil.

TikTok executives have crisscrossed European capitals to tout the plan amid some countries increasingly opting to restrict the app. Skepticism in Europe also comes as a bipartisan group U.S. lawmakers unveiled legislation on Tuesday that could curb access to the app.

SNEAK PEEK: The Pentagon’s fiscal 2024 budget request to be unveiled Thursday includes a classified effort to integrate air and space sensors that can track moving targets, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report, potentially giving the U.S. a greater capability to follow threats like ships, aircraft and other objects moving around that usually take multiple aircraft, ships, and radar stations to track. Doing the job from space also means that those systems on the ground won’t have to hand off the tracking as the objects move out of their limited ability to follow them.

“The details are classified, but with support from Congress, we should be able to move forward with a resilient suite of airborne and space-based sensors and the associated processing and data distribution needed to perform those functions,” Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL said.

SEOUL-D: Seoul approved Poland’s delivery of Krab howitzers with South Korean parts to Ukraine last year, the first confirmation that the country has at least indirectly provided weapons to Kyiv, Reuters’ JOSH SMITH and JOYCE LEE report.

‘A CATASTROPHE’: House Republicans kicked off their first hearing on the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan two years ago, hearing from veterans to highlight the human toll of the Biden administration’s decision.

More than 1,000 American citizens and an estimated 200,000 Afghan allies and partners were left behind, HFAC Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) said at the start of the hearing. As many as 170 civilians and 13 U.S. service members were killed during a terrorist attack near the Kabul airport in August 2021.

Recalling the attack, Sgt. TYLER VARGAS-ANDREWS fought through tears as he described severe injuries he and other Marines endured.

“The withdrawal was a catastrophe in my opinion. There was an inexcusable lack of accountability and negligence,” Vargas-Andrews said. “The 11 Marines, one sailor and one soldier that were murdered that day have not been answered for.”

'TERMINATED': The commanders of U.S. Northern and Southern Command told lawmakers today that China took down a spy balloon that transited Latin America in the same timeframe as the surveillance balloon that crossed over the U.S., our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in.

"What I understand is the [People's Republic of China] actually terminated that balloon in the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of South America," said Gen. GLEN VANHERCK, the head of U.S. Northern Command, told the House Armed Services Committee.

VanHerck also faced questions from lawmakers over the balloon that the U.S. shot down off the coast of South Carolina last month. That incursion, he said, demonstrates "limitations of our domain awareness."

The four-star general told lawmakers that the U.S. must modernize its radars and more quickly field "over-the-horizon" radars to detect incoming missiles and other objects to eliminate those gaps.

"Absolutely, there is a vulnerability there," VanHerck said. "The first thing I would say is: field as soon as possible the over-the-horizon capabilities the department has already funded in last year's budget. So we need to go faster."

AUMF REPEAL THROUGH SFRC: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed legislation formally repealing the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for the Use of Military Force. The measure, spearheaded by Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), could be set to reach the Senate floor during this work period, per Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER.

NO CAN DO: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY invited House Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY to visit Kyiv amid his hesitancy to greenlight aid, a request the California Republican quickly shut down, Matt reports.

“McCarthy, he has to come here to see how we work, what’s happening here, what war caused us, which people are fighting now, who are fighting now. And then after that, make your assumptions,” Zelenskyy told CNN’s WOLF BLITZER.

McCarthy said he won’t go, holding his position that the U.S. should not be sending a “blank check” to the country, a comment he initially made last fall that caused uproar across both aisles.

“I don’t have to go to Ukraine to understand where there’s a blank check or not,” McCarthy told CNN. “I will continue to get my briefings and others, but I don’t have to go to Ukraine or Kyiv to see it. And my point has always been, I won’t provide a blank check for anything.”

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: PATRICK GALLAGHER is now grants manager at the Middle East Institute, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was a public diplomacy officer at the Qatari Embassy in Washington.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: REID SMITH is now vice president of foreign policy at Stand Together, Lippman also writes in. A long-time member of the nonprofit, Smith served as the foreign policy deputy leader for the last year.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: FRANCESCA CRAIG is now head of protocol and engagement in the office of the CEO of Palantir Technologies, where she will be working directly for ALEX KARP, Lippman has also learned. She most recently was social secretary to the British Ambassador in Washington and is an alum of the French Embassy and the Motion Picture Association.

— State Department spokesperson NED PRICEwill step down from the post this month. He will be taking a policy-focused role in Blinken‘s office, though it was not immediately clear what type of policy area, a State official said.

— Ret. Gen. DAVID GOLDFEIN, the former Air Force chief of staff, has joined Shield Capital’s National Security Advisory Board.

— Sen. JOHN CORNYN, Newsweek:Winning the Next War by Preventing It

— EDWARD LUCE, The Financial Times: China is right about US containment

— COMFORT ERO, Foreign Policy:The World Isn’t Slipping Away From the West

— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: 5th Annual Forum on Security Challenges in Latin America

— House Homeland Security Committee, 9 a.m.: Confronting Threats Posed by the Chinese Communist Party to the U.S. Homeland

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.:United States Strategic Command And United States Space Command In Review Of The Defense Authorization Request For Fiscal Year 2024 And The Future Years Defense Program

— The Center for a New American Security, 9:30 a.m.:Against All Odds: Supporting Civil Society and Human Rights in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: The Biden Administration’s New US Conventional Arms Transfer Policy

— House Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.:Cyber, Information Technologies, And Innovation Subcommittee Hearing: Defense In A Digital Era: Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology, And Securing The Department Of Defense

— Freedom House, 10:00 a.m.: Report Launch — Freedom in the World 2023

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: India and the Future of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific

— House Armed Services Committee, 1 p.m.: U.S. Special Operations Forces And Command - Challenges And Resource Priorities For Fiscal Year 2024

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 4 p.m.:Okinawa Governor Tamaki on the Islands’ Changing Security Situation

— The Institute of World Politics, 4 p,m.:The U.S.-Philippines Alliance 

— The Women’s Foreign Policy Group, 5:30 p.m.: Recovering from War: Women on the Frontlines of Ukraine’s Economic Reconstruction

— The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 4 p.m.:INSA Speaker Series with JENNIFER KRON

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who thinks we should “be in jail” for our puns.

We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who gets us out of all kinds of sticky situations.