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With help from Maggie Miller

Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) lifted the majority of his holds on military promotions — but that doesn’t mean they’re out of limbo.

As our own LARA SELIGMAN and CONNOR O’BRIEN report, many are stuck waiting to take up their new posts because of the ongoing holds on top officers like the nominees to lead multiple theater commands and senior positions on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. That creates a ripple effect down the chain of command.

The Defense Department is working to ensure that as many of the 421 officers who were confirmed to lower ranks this week — one-star to three-star — can move into their assigned spots as quickly as possible, but that process will take time, said Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH. Some officers may be assigned to a temporary posting to wait out the holds, allowing their replacements to move up.

“It’s not just flicking a switch and suddenly everyone moves into these new positions,” the recently promoted Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PATRICK RYDER told reporters. “All of that has to be carefully orchestrated.”

Top officials say the holdup has real-world effects. In one prominent example, Tuberville is still blocking Lt. Gen. GREGORY GUILLOT, the deputy commander at U.S. Central Command, who is nominated to be the new head of U.S. Northern Command. That means Vice Adm. BRAD COOPER, who was confirmed to replace Guillot at Central Command, can’t do so.

That also means Vice Adm. GEORGE WIKOFF, who was confirmed to replace Cooper as the top commander overseeing all naval forces in the Middle East, has to stay put. The Domino effect continues down the line.

That has many in Washington worried, especially as the war between Israel-Hamas grinds on, and U.S. ground troops are fending off attacks in Iraq and Syria and naval forces in the Red Sea. Just today, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was attacked with seven mortars, though there were no casualties.

Asked to provide the number of lower-level officers who are stuck, Singh said the Pentagon was still working on it.

BIDEN’S ISRAEL-HAMAS HANDLING: Only about a third of Americans approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, according to a Pew Research Center poll published today, as Matt reports.

Among Republicans, 51 percent disapprove of the administration’s response, while 28 percent approve. Democrats are more split, with 44 percent approving, 33 percent disapproving and 22 percent not sure. Overall, it’s an ominous sign for President Joe Biden heading into the election year.

Respondents under 30 years old were most critical: Just 19 percent approve of the White House’s response, while 46 percent disapprove.

That tracks with an increasingly sympathetic sentiment toward Palestinians among young people. About 1,200 Israelis were killed in the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, while some 17,000 Palestinians have been killed and nearly two million driven from their homes due to Israel’s retaliatory attacks.

HOSTAGE KILLED: A hostage in Gaza was killed after Hamas foiled an Israeli rescue attempt, also killing several Israeli troops in the fight, the militant group said.

In a statement on Telegram, the group said it attacked the Israeli forces after they found out about the rescue operation, per Reuters’ AHMED ELIMAM and DAN WILLIAMS. They said a 25-year-old Israeli soldier named SA’AR BARUCH who they’d been holding captive was killed. A list of hostages released by Israel includes a hostage with a similar age and name.

“We are not going to comment on psychological warfare that Hamas continues to wage against the people of Israel,” EYLON LEVY, an Israeli government spokesperson, told reporters when asked about the raid.

Meanwhile, the United Nations said its humanitarian operation in the Gaza Strip has mostly fallen apart as Israel continues its devastating military operation in the territory,

“We do not have a humanitarian operation in southern Gaza that can be called by that name anymore,” MARTIN GRIFFITHS, the U.N. undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs, told reporters Thursday. “Without places of safety, that plan is in tatters.”

MCKENZIE’S RECOMMENDATION: Retired Gen. FRANK McKENZIE, who commanded all U.S. forces in the Middle East for three years during the Trump and Biden presidencies, believes Biden should respond more forcefully to attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, Lara also reports.

McKenzie said Iran has taken the lack of a strong U.S. military response to the recent spike in Tehran-backed Houthi attacks on civilian vessels, which pose a threat to U.S. warships, as an invitation to continue its aggressive behavior.

“Sometimes you’ve got to throw a pitch,” McKenzie told Lara. “You can’t catch eternally, because eventually the law of averages is going to turn against you, and you’re going to take a significant escalatory event on a ship, and then you’re going to be forced into an even more significant level of response.”

The Houthis’ base in Yemen makes them the ideal group to escalate the conflict in the Middle East in hopes of pressuring Israel to end its fighting with Hamas, analysts close to the Iranian government told The New York Times’ FARNAZ FASSIHI, RONEN BERGMAN and ERIC SCHMITT.

That assessment tracks with descriptions of a plan by Iran to escalate the conflict by increasing attacks on Israeli and American troops in the region, two Iranians affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps told the Times.

A main reason Iran chose the Houthis instead of other militant groups that it supports: “Unlike Hezbollah … the Houthis are not beholden to domestic political dynamics — making them effectively accountable to no one,” the Times writes.

RUSSIAN STRIKES: Russia bombarded Kyiv today with cruise missiles for the first time in months, targeting infrastructure facilities, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports.

A total of seven Russian jets fired 19 cruise missiles at Ukraine from the Saratov region of southwestern Russia, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Fourteen of the missiles were shot down but some struck targets.

PUTIN’S RUNNING: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN announced today that he’s running for president again next year, declaring his intent to win an election even his own officials have said is more or less a formality, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

“That’s going to be one humdinger of a horse race, isn’t it?” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said today, sarcastically, aboard Air Force One.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring KARI BINGEN, the director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“I’m in the ‘burbs. Love a smooth French Pinot noir in the ‘beer garden’ at Dominion Wine & Beer in Falls Church,” Bingen said, adding that she’s met a handful of defense and intelligence folk there over the years.

Cheers, Kari!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.

HOORAY FOR MILEI: Former President Donald Trump told advisers that he wants to go to Argentina for the inauguration of JAVIER MILEI this weekend but probably won’t make it due to logistical reasons, two people familiar with the matter told The Washington Post’s JEFF STEIN and SAMANTHA SCHMIDT.

Several House Republicans are flying south for the celebration, and other House conservatives have discussed the possibility of inviting Milei — a former television pundit and far-right populist who has drawn comparisons to Trump — to address the chamber, two other people familiar with those internal discussions told the Post.

Milei’s win has drawn praise from figures popular with conservatives like BEN SHAPIRO and ELON MUSK, as they see him as a potential counterweight to a leftward swing among South American countries in recent years. If Trump takes office again in 2024, it seems likely he would try to cultivate a relationship with his Argentinian counterpart.

CYBER TALKS: U.S. and European Union officials came together this week to discuss shared cybersecurity values and future goals, though specific details of what comes next were thin on the ground, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in.

The talks were held in Brussels this week as part of the 9th annual U.S.-EU Cyber Dialogue. Officials from the Homeland Security and State departments were present, along with officials from the FBI, the Federal Communications Commission, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. LIESYL FRANZ, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for International Cyberspace Security, led the U.S. delegation.

A State Department spokesperson said discussions included efforts around working together to defend against cyber threats from nations and proxy hacking groups, along with working to promote an “open, interoperable, secure and reliable internet.” While the spokesperson did not comment on specific next steps or concrete actions, the person stressed that U.S. and European officials were committed to supporting efforts to build cyber resilience in allied countries, such as Ukraine. The spokesperson was granted anonymity to discuss private meetings.

Back in Washington, ANNE NEUBERGER, the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, told reporters on the sidelines of the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday night that the discussions also included conversations about the EU’s ongoing effort to put cyber trustworthy labels on secure products.

CAMERA FOR MEMBERSHIP: Turkey’s president alleged that Canada and the U.S. demanded that Ankara let Sweden into NATO before Ottawa would resume exporting drone cameras to Turkey, Reuters’ ECE TOKSABAY and JONATHAN SPICER report.

“On the issue of drone cameras we wanted from them, Canada is insisting: Sweden, Sweden. The U.S. is repeating the same thing,” RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN told reporters on a late Thursday flight from Athens. Erdoğan said the decision to ratify Sweden’s accession is with Turkey’s Parliament, following the bill he sent to the body for consideration in October.

Canada quietly lifted export controls on drone parts, including the cameras, after Erdoğan stated he would approve of Sweden joining NATO during the alliance’s July summit.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– HARRIS TO CHAIR SPACE COUNCIL: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is set to chair the next meeting of the U.S. National Space Council on Dec. 20, NatSec Daily has learned, and the focus of this gathering will be international partnerships.

The meeting, the council’s third of the Biden administration, comes as Harris has been active on the world stage, traveling to the Middle East most recently to conduct diplomacy on the Israel-Hamas war.

The U.S. is focused on space and worried about how adversaries are acting in the global common. China is working on a lunar base and signing up other countries to its construction project, most recently Egypt.

It’s possible that Harris will discuss how the U.S. can counter China’s growing coalition in space.

BIDEN THE CLOSER: Senate Republicans are demanding that Biden insert himself forcefully into Ukraine aid negotiations to salvage his top foreign policy priority, our own JENNIFER HABERKORN, BURGESS EVERETT and JONATHAN LEMIRE report.

“It’s his job to fix this,” said Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), who is a party to the discussions. Senate negotiators “don’t matter, if he’s not on board,” Graham added. “He’s the commander in chief. I think we’re wasting our time.”

Republicans and a handful of Democrats say the laborious negotiations require that Biden, a 36-year Senate veteran, revive his longtime deal-maker reputation to clinch an agreement on his nearly $106 billion national security aid request. Graham said he personally told Biden as much earlier this fall, saying he “needs to be the deal closer.”

Biden’s track record as vice president and senator is certainly one of deal-cutter, particularly given his relationship with Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL. Yet, as president, his administration has found success leaving the policymaking details to the legislative branch. Biden’s been burned by getting too close to heated Capitol talks.

NO ‘DAY AFTER’ TALKS: Egyptian and Jordanian leaders believe they’d be “complicit” in the continuation of fighting between Israel and Hamas if they focus on what will happen to the Gaza Strip following the war, according to Egypt’s foreign minister.

“We will be complicit in the continuation of this conflict if we were to address the day after,” Egyptian Foreign Minister SAMEH SHOUKRY said during an Atlantic Council event this morning. “We have no idea what form it will be, have no idea what conditions will [exist] in Gaza. … I don’t think it’s really the priority now to deflect the attention that you need to be given to the end of cessation of hostilities to the day after.”

That’s a stark contrast to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, who emphasized last week following a trip to the Middle East that it’s critical for allies to talk about what the territory will look like after fighting, such as what body would be put in charge.

“It’s more important to concentrate on ending the conflict, and then moving on to developing a strategy … that provides us the foundations for a better situation,” Shoukry said.

— JOHN RIZZO has started at artificial intelligence company NVIDIA as head of public policy communications. Rizzo is a Treasury and Capitol Hill alum.

— Editorial Board, The New York Times: An Aid Package That Invests in American Security Goals

— HARTOSH SINGH BAL, Foreign Affairs: The Mystery of India’s Assassination Plots

— Editorial Board, Bloomberg News: Pakistan Is Creating the World’s Next Refugee Crisis

— The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Israel’s Moment of Crisis: What are the Prospects for Political Change?

— The National Academy of Public Administration and the Government Executive Media Group, 11 a.m.: Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Cybersecurity

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: 5G/6G technology and the future of global security, focusing on mitigating cyber attacks on critical infrastructure

— Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 4 p.m.: Beijing’s Latin America Exploitation: Beyond the SCIF with House Intelligence Committee Member Rep. RICK CRAWFORD (R-Ark.)

— The United States Institute of Peace, 6:30 p.m.: Perspectives on the Israel-Hamas War

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will never release her holds on our promotions.

We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who should be producer-in-chief.