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Israel’s new far-right government is unlikely to change the country’s approach to the war in Ukraine, choosing to further walk a tightrope that avoids upsetting Russia and the United States.

Israel has provided food, medicine, water and other humanitarian aid to Kyiv. But it has yet to offer any of its significant military equipment for Ukraine to use against Russian troops. That’s angered officials in Washington and Jerusalem but, to date, kept Moscow satisfied.

Israeli Foreign Minister ELI COHEN signaled last week that his country's government will continue that balance by being less vocal about the conflict.

Experts say such a delicate dance comes down to one word: Syria.

“On one hand, Iran provides Russia with drones, but at the same time, Russia has allowed Israel to face Iran and Hezbollah in Syria,” said RAFFAELLA DEL SARTO, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

That arrangement would be in danger if Israel helped Ukrainians kill Russians, which is why BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and his team are unlikely to shift course. “There’s no change in the Israeli policy vis-a-vis Ukraine,” an Israeli official said.

Israel, then, will continue to resist global calls for provisions of military assistance, even as some push for the Iron Dome air defense system to make its way to the war zone grow. “[The Iron Dome] would be military aid even if it's a defensive weapon and Israel doesn’t want to upset Russia,” Del Sarto said.

Inaction on the military front remains an awkward decision for Jerusalem, especially since Iran gave its drones to Russia to use against Ukrainians. “Once those Iranian drones started showing up in Ukraine, it became pretty alarming for them,” said NICOLE FORD, a political science and international studies professor at the University of Tampa.

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will surely discuss Iran-related issues with Israeli officials during their near-term travels to Jerusalem. Yet it’s unclear whether they’ll aim to convince the new government to boost its support for Ukraine.

Experts believe Israel would be more supportive of Ukraine if Washington provided some incentives, namely curbing criticisms of Israeli abuses of Palestinians. But the Biden administration has committed to calling out human rights violations perpetrated by Israelis, so that’s a no-go.

As it stands, Israel will continue on its middle path, even if the U.S. and Russia wish it chose one side over the other.

RUSSIA ADVANCES?:The Wagner Group’s chief claims the eastern town of Soledar is now under Russian control, the Wall Street Journal’s YAROSLAV TROFIMOV reports. If true, In that would present Russia with its first major military advance in Ukraine since July.

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, the group’s owner, said the town is under his mercenaries’ control. Ukrainian officials, however, deny the town with a pre-war population of 10,000 was lost. And even some senior Kremlin officials have yet to confirm the advance.

In a sign of internal discord, the Kremlin and state media have barely mentioned Wagner, saying instead that Russian government forces are responsible for the tactical advances in Soledar.

GERMANY WON’T BUDGE:Britain plans to supply Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks, but don’t expect Germany to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv, our team reports.

“There is no change in the situation now because of the step that the British government has announced,” STEFFEN HEBESTREIT,spokesperson for German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ’s government, told a press conference in Berlin. He added that, as previously stated on Monday, he was not aware of any official requests by partner countries to jointly supply Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian army.

Meanwhile, Poland wants to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine if Germany signs off, President ANDRZEJ DUDA said Wednesday.

There’s a growing coalition of European countries that are willing to hand over their Leopards to Kyiv, but Germany — which has to approve re-exports of its equipment — still isn’t convinced it’s such a good move. Duda, speaking from Lviv, was clearly trying to pressure Berlin to greenlight the tanks transfer.

Finnish parliamentarians are also discussing whether to send Kyiv Leopards of their own, Finnish officials tell NatSec Daily. And the U.S. is still mulling whether to send Abrams tanks.

YOON CLARIFIES NUKE COMMENTS:South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL clarified in a Wednesday interview his recent comments on joint planning between Seoul and Washington potentially involving nuclear assets.

The proposal includes “tabletop exercises, computer simulations and drills ... on delivery means for nuclear weapons,” he told the Associated Press’ ADAM SCHRECK and HYUNG-JIN KIM. “The discussions are underway over the so-called joint planning and joint execution, and I think it’s right for South Korea and the United States to cooperate because both of us are exposed to the North Korean nuclear threat.”

Yoon has vowed not to negotiate with North Korea because Pyongyang isn’t serious about peace. The U.S. remains open to discussions without preconditions, but North Korea hasn’t responded positively to that offer.

Meanwhile, the White House said last week it’s coordinating with South Korea on how to respond to myriad scenarios, including Pyongyang’s use of nuclear weapons.

U.K., U.S. ARMS USED TO KILL CIVILIANS IN YEMEN: A new report found that at least 87 civilians were killed by a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen using weapons supplied by the United Kingdom and United States, the Associated Press’ SAMY MAGDY reports.

The coalition led hundreds of attacks from January 2021 to February 2022, according to a report from Oxfam, a charitable organization based in Kenya focused on ending poverty and injustice. Another 136 people were wounded in the assaults.

Researchers looked at more than 1,700 attacks on civilians during the period, finding that the coalition used weapons from the U.K. and U.S. in a quarter of all the attacks.

WE MISS YOU, BLAKE:We promised to say more today about our former editor BLAKE HOUNSHELL’s passing, but we couldn’t improve upon what our colleagues at Playbook and GARRETT GRAFF have written.

What we can do is share a story Alex has told a few times in conversations with fellow mourners about Blake.

Alex was driving his mom to Maine when Blake texted to schedule a phone call. Alex was in the final stages of the job application process to helm NatSec Daily, Blake’s brainchild, and this seemed like the final “you got it” or “we’re going a different direction” call. Alex, shivering with nerves, didn’t want to text and drive, and so he deputized his mom to text with Blake for about 30 to 45 minutes about when they could hop on the phone and general New England stuff.

Weeks later, when Alex and Blake spoke on the phone about a story, Blake mentioned how stiff and formal Alex’s texts were that day. Alex didn’t have the heart to tell Blake that he’d actually been texting with his mom, who turned Alex’s dictated shorthand into more formal prose.

Alex now wishes he’d done so — Blake certainly would’ve laughed and said something snarky and awesome.

RIP Blake. We miss you.

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TURKEY’S CLUSTER BOMBS:Turkey provided Ukraine with artillery-fired cluster bombs late in 2022, Foreign Policy’s JACK DETSCH and ROBBIE GRAMER report.

“The NATO ally began sending the first batches of so-called dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICMs) in November 2022,” they wrote. “The weapons are designed to destroy tanks by bursting into smaller submunitions, which can linger on the battlefield for years if they do not immediately explode. Each round scatters about 88 bomblets. The United States is barred from exporting DPICMs under U.S. law because of its high dud rate.”

Ukraine asked the U.S. for cluster bombs, but the Biden administration has shown no signs of acceding to that request. That decision seemingly led Kyiv to turn to Ankara for the weapons.

PERU’S DEADLIEST CLASHES:Monday proved to be the deadliest day of clashes in Peru between protesters and government forces, with at least 17 demonstrators and one police officer killed.

“The killings, in the city of Juliaca, near the border with Bolivia, drew widespread condemnation of Peruvian security forces, which appear to be responsible for most of the deaths, and have been accused by protesters and human rights groups of using lethal force indiscriminately against civilians,” the New York Times’ MITRA TAJ, JULIE TURKEWITZ and GENEVIEVE GLATSKY report. “The violence in Juliaca on Monday marked the deadliest single clash between civilians and armed actors in Peru in at least two decades.”

Skirmishes between Peruvians and state forces have continued since December after President PEDRO CASTILLO tried to dissolve Congress. Castillo was then arrested and replaced by his vice president, leading Castillo supporters to fill Peruvian streets demanding new elections.

Experts worry the situation could get worse. “The spiral of violence and political crisis is likely to continue. This is extremely worrying as 45 people have already been killed, hundreds have been wounded, and the potential for more violence is very real,” George Mason University’s JO-MARIE BURT told NatSec Daily.

NO CYBERATTACK EVIDENCE ON FAA:The White House said there was “no evidence of a cyberattack at this point” on the Federal Aviation Administration's system that temporarily grounded planes Wednesday.

Biden directed the Department of Transportation “to conduct a full investigation into the causes,” White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE tweeted. Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEGtweeted that he had directed the agency to complete an “after action process to determine root causes and recommend next steps.” Spokespersons for both the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command declined to comment on the situation, and directed questions to DOT.

The system outage led to more than 3,700 delays and 640 cancellations across American airports, including a halt on flights until 9 a.m. Eastern. The ground stop was lifted just before that time. Military operations or mobility weren’t impacted, per the AP.

JEFFREY TROY, president and CEO of the Aviation Information Sharing and Analysis Center, told our colleague MAGGIE MILLER that while a cyberattack could have been responsible for the outage, it more likely was due to potential routine overnight system upgrades, a power outage, or hardware server issues.

“The most important thing when an event like this happens is a very in-depth root cause analysis occurs in order to understand what was truly the primary reason for the service disruption,” Troy said. “It’s really important for that work to get done and to give the FAA the time to do that work.”

NO MORE EXCUSES: Adm. DARYL CAUDLE, the head of U.S. Fleet Forces Command, told industry executives at the Surface Navy Association's annual symposium that he didn’t want to hear excuses about how hard it is to make things the military needs.

“All this stuff about Covid this, parts, supply chain — I just really don’t care,” he said. “I need SM-6s delivered on time, I need Mark 48 torpedoes delivered on time … “We can’t dillydally around with these deliveries.”

PENTAGON DROPS VACCINE MANDATE:The Pentagon formally rescinded its Covid-19 vaccine mandate for troops on Tuesday.

Legislation signed into law on Dec. 23 called for Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to drop the mandate, which he enacted the year before and strongly advocated for keeping, within 30 days.

But in a memo, Austin provided guidance on how and whether to deploy troops, explaining that commanders have the authority to maintain unit readiness and healthy troops: “Vaccination enhances operational readiness and protects the force,” he wrote, adding that DoD will continue encouraging service members to receive vaccines.

Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), chair of the House Armed Services Committee, in a statement, applauded the end of what he deemed a “harmful and misguided” mandate.

KAINE ON HOW TO HELP HAITI:There’s more the U.S. can do to help Haiti during its security and political crisis, Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) also told NatSec Daily during our Tuesday interview (we didn’t have the space to mention in yesterday’s topper).

We read a line from an important story on Haiti’s problems in the Miami Herald: “There is not a single elected official in the entire country of nearly 12 million people — not a council member, not a mayor and certainly not a president.”

To help, then, Kaine recommends more reporting on the criminal organizations taking advantage of the power vacuum, so authorities know who, exactly, is responsible. He also applauded Biden’s move to welcome Haitians fleeing violence into the U.S. on “parole.”

The senator also said, “there's a uniform agreement that some trusted intermediary force who can help provide stability would be a good thing,” but the problem is most nations, including the U.S., “are very wary of committing troops to this situation.”

One part of that concern is for historical reasons, and the other is the safety of troops. At this point, Kaine would not recommend the U.S. send forces unilaterally to quell the violence in Haiti because “I think the history of U.S.-Haiti relations would likely lead to a greater percentage of the population viewing that as a negative.”

PROBE ALL COVID ORIGINS:Forty-four members of the right-leaning Vanderberg Coalition signed an open letter lambasting journalists for coverage of the origins of Covid, calling on news organizations and scientific journals to investigate their own shortcomings.

Signers of the letter addressed to outlets including The New York Times and Time Magazine, include House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), former national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN and former deputy national security adviser MATTHEW POTTINGER.

Scientific journals and news outlets that “censored” writers, published unsubstantiated evidence or failed to consider potential conflicts of interest in their reporting “served to hamper national and international policy discussions about how to mitigate against future pandemics of any origin—natural, accidental, or deliberate,” the letter reads.

We asked CARRIE FILIPETTI, Vandenberg’s executive director, why they felt the need to organize this letter.

“It is absolutely essential for future pandemic preparedness that we be able to trust international scientific and news organizations,” she said. “That’s why the goal of the letter is not to endorse any singular origin theory, but instead to endorse the dispassionate search for truth, which has been a cornerstone of these professions since their origin.”

She said reports from Republicans on the Hill and elsewhere indicate that the lab leak theory is “a potential viable origin for human transmission of COVID-19.”

—J.A. Green & Co. is adding CHARLES “CHIP” ROCK as executive vice president for defense programs. He had a 35-year career in the Navy, retiring as a rear admiral.

— Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN is staying on through Biden’s full term, after all, despite many rumors to the contrary.

—  ALEX ROUHANDEH, Newsweek: ELIZABETH WARREN Pushes Pentagon for Higher Ethical Standards, Lower Costs

— JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: Japan’s prime minister warns that Ukraine today could be Asia tomorrow

— BEN ARMBRUSTER, The Guardian: Washington is shrieking at the prospect of a defense budget cut. But would it really be so bad?

— Surface Navy Association, 7:30 a.m.: 35th National Symposium

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 a.m.:Indo-Pacific Forecast 2023

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.:Energy Security in the 118th Congress: A Discussion with Rep. AUGUST PFLUGER

— The Women’s Foreign Policy Group, 11 a.m.: When Women Lead: How Female Leadership is Crafting the New Success Paradigm Across Foreign Policy and National Security, and Business and Tech

— The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 12 p.m.:Rising Tensions in the West Bank

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, whose policy about hating us no matter what will never change.

We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, whose policy is to be the best.