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THE SECOND TIME MIGHT NOT BE THE CHARM

Bob Menendez is a bona fide political survivor.

From humble beginnings in Union City, N.J., he clawed his way up the Jersey political ranks. As a House member, he won a foothold in leadership before winning the nod to replace newly elected Gov. Jon Corzine in the Senate in 2005. And six years ago, he beat federal corruption charges in a Newark courtroom, allowing him to regain the Senate Foreign Relations Committee gavel.

That said, there’s good reason to think he might not survive this.

A shocking 39-page indictment unsealed today by federal prosecutors in Manhattan lays out a brazen bribery scheme involving the 69-year-old Democrat and his wife, Nadine. The allegations amount to a Hollywood-ready story involving foreign arms deals, D.C. string-pulling, gold bars and a Mercedes convertible.

Menendez referenced his prior prosecution in a defiant statement that warned that “the facts are not as presented” and called on the public to “recall the other times the prosecutors got it wrong and that you reserve judgment.”

Menendez is, of course, innocent until proven guilty and will have a chance to seek exoneration in court. But as a political matter, there are several key differences this time around that threaten to put his long career in serious jeopardy.

The timing: Menendez’s prior indictment was handed down in April 2015, more than three years before he had to face voters. That gave him time to mount a defense: A 2017 trial ended with a hung jury, and the Justice Department dropped charges months later — allowing him to run in 2018 free of a legal cloud. He won’t have nearly so much running room this time: Menendez is in cycle for 2024, with a primary scheduled in less than nine months.

The charges: The prior case surrounded flights, hotel stays and campaign contributions that Menendez allegedly accepted from businessman Sal Melgen in return for his help with a Medicare billing dispute and other small favors. The new indictment makes much more serious accusations — that Menendez and his wife accepted envelopes of cash, a luxury convertible and gold for smoothing relations with an authoritarian regime and seeking to interfere with a pending federal investigation, among other allegations.

The evidence: Lordy, there are texts. Prosecutors in the Melgen case never produced “smoking gun” evidence of a quid pro quo linking the gifts and Menendez’s actions. The new indictment, however, includes text messages, Google searches and DNA evidence — much of it suggesting that the senator was fully aware of the benefits accruing to his wife and their linkage to the official actions he is alleged to have taken — not to mention photos of a Menendez-monogrammed Congressional Hispanic Caucus jacket stuffed with cash.

The politics: Besides the timing, the political environment for Menendez is radically different this time around. The Democratic establishment rallied around the veteran pol after the prior indictment, knowing that his resignation would allow then-Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, to name his replacement. Now a Democrat, Gov. Phil Murphy, is in office, and there is reason to believe Menendez is vulnerable in a primary: In 2018, a poorly funded, no-name Democratic challenger garnered nearly 38% against the veteran pol.

The reaction: In 2015, an organized campaign from prominent Jersey Democrats made clear that Menendez retained firm support back home, which helped fend off calls for his resignation from outside the Garden State. This time, more than six hours after the indictment, many of those same officials have been silent (though he got backing from his son, Rep. Robert Menendez Jr.). We’re keeping a particularly close eye on Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who said back in 2015, “I won’t waver in my commitment to stand alongside my senior senator to serve our great state.”

GOOD AFTERNOON! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Sept. 22, where we hope you have a restful Yom Kippur if you celebrate!

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Under Senate Democratic Caucus rules, Menendez must step down as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — as he was required to do in 2015. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has yet to announce what’s next, but he has options.

Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin, who stepped into the top role the last time Menendez was under indictment, remains the most senior Democrat on the committee. But Cardin is retiring, and it’s possible that Schumer won’t want a caretaker leading the panel but someone who will remain in the ranks for the 119th Congress. If so, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is next in line.

What to expect: Contra Menendez, both Cardin and Shaheen are considered team players in Democratic foreign policy fights — particularly when it comes to the sensitive topics of Cuba and Iran, where Menendez has clashed with both the Obama and Biden administrations.

Notably, the first time Menendez was indicted, it fell to Cardin to handle the sensitive negotiations surrounding the Iran nuclear deal that President Barack Obama negotiated in tandem with five other countries. Menendez firmly opposed the deal, but Cardin helped broker a deal that gave Congress 60 days to review the agreement. Lawmakers failed to pass a resolution disapproving the deal and it went into effect, only to see President Donald Trump withdraw in 2018.

HOUSE PLANS TUESDAY APPROPS VOTES

Your weekend plans are saved: Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters Friday morning that the House will not vote until Tuesday, when his plan is to pass a rule allowing for the House to move a package of GOP spending bills for fiscal 2024.

McCarthy told Jordain and other reporters he plans to strip all Ukraine aid out of those bills and give it a standalone vote in an effort to appease conservatives in the conference. Much more at Inside Congress Live

Live from H-313: The House Rules Committee is now in session teeing up the Defense, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations and Agriculture-FDA bills for the floor. With the committee needing to hear from members seeking amendments on all four sprawling bills, this could take a while.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told Jordain on his way in that it’s unlikely the committee wraps up today. Grab some snacks if you’re watching!

And we have to say Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) really captured our feelings in his remarks at the top: “Are you really, really, really, very sure [you have the votes],” he asked Republicans. “Or are we going to be right back here next week working on these same exact bills?”

Y’all .. it’s that time of the year again … Fat Bear Week!

The Senate dress code discourse continues.

QUICK LINKS

Katherine Clark names the Democrats’ price to save Kevin McCarthy, from Ryan Lizza’s Playbook Deep Dive

Stop government shutdowns forever? Bipartisan group makes the push, from Burgess Everett

Despite posturing and proposals, Congress gets paid during a shutdown (whether they want to or not), from Katherine Tully-McManus

Clarence Thomas Secretly Participated in Koch Network Donor Events, from Joshua Kaplan, Justin Elliott and Alex Mierjeski at ProPublica

TRANSITIONS

Will Mascaro has been promoted to be senior legislative assistant for Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio).

MONDAY IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate is out.

MONDAY AROUND THE HILL

Quiet.

THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Kyle Stewart correctly guessed that John Quincy Adams had a niece who seduced all three of his sons.

TODAY’S QUESTION from Kyle: What 19th-century speaker of the House was known as a “czar” for transforming the chamber’s rules and the power of the speakership, including ending the minority’s delay tactic known as a disappearing quorum?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected].

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Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.