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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Ahead of President JOE BIDEN’s virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart, XI JINPING, four top Congressional Democratic leaders on nuclear issues want potential nuclear agreements with China to feature as key points of discussion — before it’s too late.

In recent days, the U.S. government said China tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the globe and that Beijing plans by 2030 to quadruple its nuclear warhead total from the low 200s to roughly 1,000. That’s spooked Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.), Rep. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.), Sen. JEFFREY MERKLEY (D-Ore.) and Rep. DONALD BEYER (D-Va.) — co-chairs of the Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group — who worry the mix of growing arsenals and downward spiraling relations could literally blow up.

“We fear that the current climate of distrust and uncertainty over recent developments in China’s nuclear weapons program may lead both the United States and China to engage in worst-case military planning,” they wrote in a letter sent to Biden today, exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily. “That could fuel an arms race that we cannot afford and should seek to avoid.”

While the lawmakers appreciate the U.S. and China discussing the “existential” threat of climate change, they hope both nations “will extend those conversations to include seeking cooperation on the existential threat of nuclear weapons.”

How to move the conversation forward? The legislative quartet, which previously urged Biden to make a reduced military role for nuclear weapons official U.S. policy, provided a five-point plan in the letter.

First, invite China and other U.N. Security Council members to an on-site inspection of strategic forces mandated by New START, the arms control treaty that the U.S. and Russia extended in February for another five years.

Second, “[s]eek negotiations toward a treaty or agreement that stops the additional production of fissile material.”

Third, push for an agreement with China “for advance notifications of ballistic missile launches, through the Hague Code of Conduct.”

Fourth, aim for an accord “not to interfere in nuclear command, control, and communications” via cyberattacks or other measures.

The fifth and final recommendation is to pen a deal on “transparency measures or verifiable limits, or both, on hypersonic cruise missiles and glide vehicles that are mounted on ballistic missiles.”

“It’s more critical than ever that President Biden actively engage with President Xi on nuclear risk reduction,” Markey told NatSec Daily. “We can ensure that the worst projections and a new nuclear arms race never come to pass,” adding “the United States must seek opportunities for cooperation with China when it comes to existential threats to our world.”

We asked the White House if Biden planned to raise his nuclear concerns during his superpower FaceTime with Xi. A senior administration official wouldn’t preview the agenda, but did say “the virtual bilateral meeting is part of our efforts to responsibly manage the competition between our countries, and that includes ensuring the competition does not veer into conflict, so you can expect that they’d discuss a number of issues in that area.”

At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, a reporter asked Biden if he worried the risk of a fight with China was on the rise. “No, I’m not,” the president replied, citing his many hours of talks with Xi this year and in the past. “In my meetings with him virtually coming up … I want to make sure there’s no misunderstanding. It’s competition, not conflict.”

CYBER RULES FOR KEY COMPANIES STILL FAR OFF: In an interview with our own ERIC GELLER (for Pros!), National Cyber Director CHRIS INGLIS predicted it would take “months to years” for the federal government to fully map out and establish cybersecurity regulations for the nation’s most important companies, allowing “the degree of evenness across all of that critical infrastructure that we would prefer.”

But Inglis maintained that those new requirements shouldn’t be applied to companies that don’t yet understand how they fit into the bigger picture of U.S. resilience: “We can't surprise them with either our expectations or a consequence … for an action they didn't know that they were expected to take.”

And before federal officials can even start writing up these regulations, they need to determine the important societal functions that need protecting and identify the companies that deliver those services. “We still have some work to do to understand, what are the critical functions that cut across these 16 critical sectors?” Inglis said.

SOME U.S. STAFF IN ETHIOPIA ALLOWED TO LEAVE: America’s embassy in Ethiopia is allowing the voluntary departure of some staff and their family members — a growing sign that the U.S. expects the deadly conflict to get worse despite efforts to broker a ceasefire.

“On November 3, the Department authorized the voluntary departure of non-emergency U.S. government employees and family members of emergency and non-emergency employees from Ethiopia due to armed conflict, civil unrest, and possible supply shortages,” reads a security alert on the mission’s website. “U.S. citizens in Ethiopia should consider departing now using commercial options. Those planning to remain should ensure they have sufficient provisions stocked in case they need to shelter in place.”

“Further escalation is likely, and may cause supply chain shortages, communications blackouts and travel disruptions,” the bulletin continued.

The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa, JEFFREY FELTMAN, is on his way to Ethiopia for a two-day visit in hopes of quelling the violence. It’s expected that Tigray rebels plan to fight their way toward the capital of Addis Ababa; they’ve already captured some towns on the road to the city. The government declared a state of emergency Wednesday.

State Department spokesperson NED PRICE today said “The safety of U.S. citizens, U.S. government personnel, their dependence on the security of our facility remains among our highest priorities.… We urge all parties to use restraint, end hostilities and ensure civilians and their rights are respected.”

DOD INVESTIGATOR DEFENDS DRONE STRIKE REVIEW: The Pentagon acknowledged that at least one child was in the area of an errant drone strike in Afghanistan that killed 10 innocent people — but the military official charged with reviewing how it happened said the footage was easy to miss.

That’s the main takeaway of what Lt. Gen. SAMI SAID told reporters at the Defense Department yesterday in an unclassified briefing, per the New York Times’ HELENE COOPER and ERIC SCHMITT.

“While General Said acknowledged that the military had video footage showing a child at the site two minutes before the launch, he said that he was unsure whether anyone who was not specifically looking for evidence of a child would have picked up on it,” they wrote.

“Two independent reviews that I conducted, the physical evidence of a child was apparent at the 2-minute point,” Said told the reporters. “But it is 100 percent not obvious; you have to be looking for it.”

Yesterday DoD released a fact sheet with the results of the review into the drone strike: "The authorities and Rules of Engagement utilized to execute the regrettable strike were understandable based on the information available at the time and the perceived very high threat to US forces" at the international airport in Kabul, it reads. "The investigation found no violation of law, including the Law of War. Execution errors combined with confirmation bias and communication breakdowns led to regrettable civilian casualties."

STUDY: NORTH KOREA CAN MAKE MORE NUKE-READY URANIUM: A new report from Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation assesses that North Korea can make more weapons-grade uranium material than previously believed — though it’s not making as much as it can right now.

“It’s using 1/10th or 1/20th of the capacity it has,” SULGIYE PARK, the report’s lead author, told the Wall Street Journal’s TIMOTHY W. MARTIN. “The big question is why.” One explanation is that North Korean leader KIM JONG UN is fine with current levels of uranium production, especially since making more might anger the U.S. and other nations. Another is that the country might face challenges in scaling up the enrichment of fissile material.

“The assertion is based on satellite-imagery analysis of the equipment and facility size of the Kim regime’s only confirmed operational uranium mining complex in Pyongsan county, about 30 miles north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone. That milling capacity assessment was contrasted with North Korea’s estimated production, based on the levels of waste deposited near the mill,” Martin reported. “Furthermore, researchers tracked deforestation levels to study mining activity from 2017 to 2020, using an algorithm to analyze satellite imagery and detect land-use changes.”

Asked about the WSJ report, a senior administration official said “we don’t comment on matters of intelligence,” but added North Korea’s “unlawful nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose a serious threat to international security and the global nonproliferation regime, and underscore the urgency of diplomacy focused on achieving the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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CHINA’S MILITARY BUILDUP, BY THE NUMBERS: Our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) read the new annual report on China’s military so you don’t have to — and they helpfully broke down the main takeaways.

Nukes: The passage that will prompt a thousand questions from Congress estimates that China will likely have “at least” 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030, a nearly fivefold increase (as we mentioned above). Beijing is also making progress on the infrastructure to deploy them in silos and aboard aircraft and submarines.

Ships: China has built a 360-ship navy, well above the 297 hulls operated by the U.S. Navy. By the end of the decade, China will likely have 425 ships, dwarfing every other navy in the world at least in size, if not capability.

And planes: The Chinese air force has yet to catch up to the U.S., but it now boasts the world’s third-largest fleet of combat aircraft with over 2,200 fighters, bombers and attack planes.

A new ballistic missile? Another revelation: China has a new ballistic missile on the way. “Sources indicate a ‘long-range’ DF-27 ballistic missile is in development,” according to the report. “Official PRC military writings indicate this range-class spans 5,000-8,000km, which means the DF-27 could be a new IRBM or ICBM.”

What’s the goal? The Pentagon makes no bones about what it sees as China’s intentions: “The accrual of the PRC’s comprehensive national power, including military power, is necessary to set the conditions for Beijing to assert its preferences on a global scale.”

DOJ TO RAMP UP RANSOMWARE ARRESTS: Americans are “going to see more arrests” for ransomware and other cybercrimes in the coming days and weeks, Deputy Attorney General LISA MONACO told The Associated Press’ ERIC TUCKER in a new interview — warning that the Justice Department would escalate its response to a “steady drumbeat” of attacks.

“If you come for us, we’re going to come for you,” Monaco said, adding: “We are not going to stop. We’re going to continue to press forward to hold accountable those who seek to go after our industries, hold their data hostage and threaten economic security, national security and personal security.”

Monaco also assessed that U.S. officials “have not seen a material change in the landscape” with regard to hacks emanating from Russia — despite Inglis, the national cyber director, telling Congress on Wednesday that there had been a “discernible decrease” in such incidents. “Only time will tell as to what Russia may do on this front,” Monaco said.

ISRAEL’S INFLATABLE MISSILE TRACKER: Israel’s new missile-tracking system — effectively a blimp tied to the ground filled with sensors — will be deployed for the first time this week, Breaking Defense’s ARIE EGOZI reports.

The High Availability Aerostat System (HAAS), jointly developed by the Israeli and American missile-defense agencies and financed by U.S. foreign military funding, “is on track to declare initial operational capability before the end of the year,” per Egozi.

“The goal is to deploy the first of the HAAS systems to northern Israel in early 2022, to cope with the growing threat of Iranian-made cruise missiles and armed drones” and “to deploy multiple HAAS systems around the country, but the exact number is classified,” Egozi reported.

A State Department spokesperson told NatSec Daily the U.S. provided $3 million in foreign military financing for HAAS.

BIPARTISAN GROUP TO STOP FOREIGN DONATIONS IN U.S. ELEX: Six House members — three Republicans, three Democrats — introduced legislation to stop foreign money from influencing America’s elections. The measure came shortly after a ruling by the Federal Elections Commission that will allow foreign donors to finance ballot initiatives.

The bill — the Stop Foreign Funds in Elections Act — would make it illegal for a foreign financier to influence “a State or local ballot initiative or referendum” in addition to the already prohibited “State, or local election.”

“Allowing foreign contributions to ballot initiatives and referenda poses a direct threat to our nation’s democratic process,” Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.), one of the measure’s cosigners, said in a statement announcing the measure. “Our bipartisan legislation will put a stop to this illicit practice and ensure that state and local elections are free from foreign influence and decided solely by American voters.”

“Florida has a rich history of using ballot initiatives to amend our state’s constitution, and this important democratic process should be conducted free of any and all interference from foreign nationals,” added Rep. STEPHANIE MURPHY (D-Fla.), another cosigner.

INHOFE BLASTS AUSTIN OVER RESPONSE DELAY: The top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. JAMES INHOFE (R-Okla.), isn’t happy Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN took more than two weeks to respond to his letter about the impact of the vaccine mandates on troops and other DOD personnel.

“This letter could have been written in 24 hours — there was no need for it to take two weeks and two days to not answer any of my data-driven inquiries and simply punt my questions to the Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness,” Inhofe said in a news release today.

Inhofe asked Austin about what the mandate might mean for mission readiness, the monetary cost and potential impact on the workforce, as well as called for a classified briefing on what it would mean for the Pentagon after unvaccinated people were dismissed from their roles.

Austin responded that “[i]t is my assessment — after consulting with senior leaders here — that the Department will incur nominal attrition due to individuals refusing COVID-19 vaccination. To date, over 97 percent of our active duty force has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 87 percent are fully vaccinated. To date, there has not been an exceptional number of exemptions sought. These requests will be adjudicated individually, ensuring each Service member's request is appropriately and fairly addressed.”

But Austin didn’t answer all of Inhofe’s queries, clearly angering the powerful lawmaker.

During a news briefing today, chief Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said “the secretary is concerned about the rate of infection that we continue to see, and — quite frankly — the deaths. … It’s very much on his mind.”

— SEAN BARTLETT is now a senior adviser at the State Department’s Bureau of Global Public Affairs. A Senate alum, he most recently was communications director at the Center for Global Development.

— A first transition into the world for NatSec Daily: Our own LARA SELIGMAN and ANDY BASKIN welcomed MAX ADRIAN BASKIN on Monday. We look forward to Max's future contributions to this newsletter.

— VICTOR J. BLUE, THOMAS GIBBONS-NEFF and CHRISTINA GOLDBAUM, The New York Times: “ISIS Poses a Growing Threat to New Taliban Government in Afghanistan”

— ABDUL SAYED and COLIN CLARKE, Foreign Policy: “With Haqqanis at Afghanistan’s Helm, the Taliban Will Grow Even More Extreme”

— AMY CHENG, The Washington Post: “A hostage of al-Qaeda made it back to France. Her return to Mali is sparking anger.”

— COLIN POWELL’s funeral: The president and first lady JILL BIDEN will attend the service at Washington National Cathedral, per the White House.

— The Stimson Center, 8 a.m.: “Voices from Japan: Future of U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in Aerospace — with SHUNJI ‘BERT’ IZUTSU and KEVIN ‘GUMBY’ SCHNEIDER”

— The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “Water, Energy, Security and Peace: The Green Blue Deal as a Path to Climate Security and Peace Among Israelis, Jordanians and Palestinians — with DANA ALLIN, GIDON BROMBERG and NADA MAJDALANI”

— The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: “Cooperation in the Middle East: Fact or Fantasy? — with EBTESAM AL-KETBI, ABDOLRASOOL DIVSALLAR, ROSS HARRISON, LUIGI NARBONE and RANDA SLIM”

— The Brookings Institution, 12 p.m.: “State, Society, and Markets in North Korea — with SHEENA GREITENS, JEAN H. LEE, MIREYA SOLÍS and ANDREW YEO”

— The Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: “What Is a Strategy of Denial and Does It Make Sense for America? — with ELBRIDGE COLBY, SUZANNE MALONEY, MICHAEL E. O’HANLON and MELANIE W. SISSON”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who would sign a nuclear deal with us any day.