Hi China Watchers. This week’s CW explores what we know about the upcoming virtual summit between Presidents JOE BIDEN and XI JINPING. I’d love to hear what you think:

Will the leaders be able to reset the bilateral relationship toward more congenial engagement?

What should be the top item on the summit agenda, and why?

Thanks, and enjoy this week’s China Watcher.
— Phelim

After months of escalating tensions between the United States and China, a planned virtual summit between Biden and Xi presents the biggest opportunity yet to reset the bilateral relationship. No major breakthroughs are expected during the yet unscheduled meeting, but sources tell China Watcher that agreements on reopening consulates and easing visa restrictions will likely be announced.

There also are hopes for progress in other areas. China’s recent successful test of a hypersonic missile and its dramatic expansion of its nuclear warhead arsenal will likely put the creation of a bilateral nuclear weapons dialogue on the agenda. Ongoing background talks may produce a framework to ease trade frictions. And Biden will urge further engagement between his climate envoy, JOHN KERRY, and his Chinese counterpart, XIE ZHENHUA, after in the aftermath of disappointment about Xi’s absence at COP26.

“Even if there is no deep, substantive conversation, let alone outcome, simply setting or resetting the tone of the relationship is a key goal,” said ANDREW MERTHA, China Studies Program director at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and China’s top diplomat YANG JIECHI announced the summit after their October meeting in Zurich. Neither side has confirmed the meeting’s date or agenda, other than to insist that it will take place this year.

The summit will be virtual because Xi is declining invitations to attend all events outside China. Sullivan has described it as “the next best thing” to Biden’s preference of an in-person get-together.

“This meeting is part of our continued efforts to responsibly manage the competition between our two countries,” an administration official said.

Both sides want the summit to defuse tensions that China’s Vice Foreign Minister XIE FENG warned in July had produced a bilateral “stalemate.” But substantive progress on hot button issues, including human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the rule of law rollback in Hong Kong, are not expected.

Intractable positions — Xi’s focus on “sovereignty” and Biden’s on the “rules-based international order” — mean neither side will budge beyond reiterating standard talking points. And neither leader can afford domestic public blowback from any hint of a reversal in their Taiwan policies.

“I don’t expect the Biden-Xi virtual summit would produce anything new [on Taiwan], other than a U.S. reiteration of its existing positions,” said DEAN CHEN, associate professor of political science at Ramapo College of New Jersey.

Biden and Xi’s overwhelming priority is to avoid the overt hostility that blighted Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI’s meetings with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN in Anchorage in March as well as subsequent confabs with Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN in July and Kerry in September. Both leaders must also avoid perceptions of weakness, an area where Biden is disadvantaged by legislative gridlock over his domestic policy agenda.

“If it's a question of who is approaching who from a position of strength, maybe Xi is in a better position,” said CHAS FREEMAN, whose half-century of diplomatic experience in China included a stint as President Richard Nixon’s lead interpreter and as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

Diplomats familiar with Biden’s style warn that aides must keep him on script. “Biden's problem is that he’s a marvelous talker, but he can't stop, and he doesn't speak with precision, and you have to deal with China issues with great precision,” said STAPLETON ROY, founding director emeritus at the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States and a former U.S. ambassador to China

The summit will be watched closely in Congress, where Biden’s China policies have been met with mixed reviews. Democratic legislators surveyed by China Watcher, including Reps. TOM MALINOWSKI of New Jersey, ANDY LEVIN of Michigan and AMI BERA of California, said they would like to see Biden challenge Xi on Xinjiang and Taiwan as well as recalibrate the trade relationship to provide more benefit for U.S. workers.

“U.S. values and commitment to human rights, international rules and norms, and our support for allies and partners globally are not bargaining chips,” Bera said in a written statement.

Republican lawmakers told China Watcher they are unified in their concerns that Biden won’t adequately protect U.S. interests. Rep. VICKY HARTZLER of Missouri wants major U.S. engagement on human rights to be a precondition for the summit. Sen. MARCO RUBIO of Florida suggests the summit will be a waste of Biden’s time "because Xi is looking to overtake the United States." And Rep. TOM TIFFANY of Wisconsin sees the summit as “rewarding” Xi for “lying about Covid, stomping out civil liberties in Hong Kong and inflaming tensions with Taiwan.”

Bipartisan divide on the summit’s merits and objectives doesn’t surprise WINSTON LORD, former U.S. ambassador to China and assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under President BILL CLINTON.

“The only thing I can absolutely predict about the summit is some Republicans saying Biden was too soft or it was a setback because nothing was achieved or it was essentially just a PR stunt because nothing really occurred,” Lord said.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— PENTAGON WARNS ON CHINA NUKES: A new Pentagon report estimates China will likely have “at least” 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030, a massive expansion in a stockpile estimated at about 200 warheads in 2020, POLITICO’s PAUL MCLEARY reported Wednesday. The rise of Chinese military capabilities represents “a fundamental change” for global stability, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. MARK MILLEY told the Aspen Security Forum just before the report’s release.

— BIDEN SLAMS CHINA CLIMATE NO-SHOW: Biden said Sunday that China and Russia “basically didn’t show up” with new climate commitments at the Oct. 30-31 G-20 meeting in Rome. Xi addressed the G-20 via video link Saturday and submitted a written statement to the COP26 climate talks reiterating existing initiatives. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN shot back at Biden on Monday for U.S. cumulative carbon emissions “eight times that of China.”

Both perspectives are unhelpful, said MICHAEL DAVIDSON, assistant professor of engineering and policy at the University of California San Diego. “I think folks are rightly pointing at the top-line numbers [in Xi’s COP26 statement] saying China could do more in the medium term, but the long-term direction [in lowering carbon emissions] is unambiguous,” Davidson told China Watcher.

— BLINKEN, WANG YI CLASH ON TAIWAN: Secretary of State Blinken made it “crystal clear” to China’s Foreign Minister Wang on Sunday that the U.S. opposes Chinese military action against Taiwan. In a meeting at the G-20 summit, Blinken included recent Chinese provocations toward Taiwan on a list of issues that “undermine the international rules-based order.” Wang in turn accused the U.S. of pursuing “a false One-China policy.”

“The Chinese are working on the assumption that the U.S. will respond [to defend Taiwan] in the event of their using force to change the situation in the Taiwan Strait,” said STEVEN M. GOLDSTEIN, director of the Taiwan Studies Workshop at Harvard University.

— CHINA TARIFFS DIVIDE WHITE HOUSE: National security adviser Sullivan and U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI disagree on next steps in the U.S.-China trade war, POLITICO’s GAVIN BADE reported Friday. Sullivan wants a balance of tariff increases on some key Chinese industries while scaling back penalties on thousands of other products. Tai wants to give the Chinese government time to engage in trade talks before any additional tariff hikes. Tai described the U.S.-China trade relationship Thursday as “dry tinder ... likely to spark basically just a giant fire with really, really drastic implications for all of us.” That may be winning rhetoric.

“Many people within the Biden administration see any actions related to China trade as politically perilous and would prefer to keep the status quo in place for as long as possible,” said SIMON LESTER, president of China Trade Monitor.

— CHINA’S TAJIK BASE EYES AFGHANISTAN: China is funding the construction of a Tajik special forces base on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, the Tajik government revealed Thursday. That reflects Beijing’s hedge against the Taliban, if it fails to control insurgents along the China-Afghanistan border as well as to ensure that Russia “doesn’t completely dominate Tajikistan’s decision making,” VANDA FELBAB-BROWN, senior fellow in the Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institution, told China Watcher.

— YAHOO EXITS CHINA: Yahoo Inc. blamed China’s “increasingly challenging business and legal environment” for its decision Tuesday to exit the Chinese market. That follows a similar decision by LinkedIn last month and reflects an increasingly uncompromising corporate response to intrusive Chinese government regulatory initiatives.

— KANTER DUNKS ON BEIJING: Boston Celtics center ENES KANTER uses Twitter these days to call Xi a “brutal dictator,” criticize abuses against Tibetans and Xinjiang Uyghurs and protest China’s hosting of the 2022 Beijing Olympics. He hopes such criticism will help to “make human rights a priority in both U.S. and foreign policies,” Kanter said Sunday. Expect more such athlete activism at the Beijing Games. “It is hard to think of any forum in the world that offers as much global publicity as the Olympics, and athletes deserve to use it,” BARBARA KEYS, professor of U.S. and international history at the U.K.’s Durham University, said.

— EU VOWS CHINA PUSHBACK: European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN and European Council President CHARLES MICHEL vowed Thursday in a joint open letter to “push back” against Chinese government “political pressure and coercive measures” targeting E.U. member states. That reflects “an EU-wide transformation as member states have begun to perceive Beijing in a much more problematic way,” said VLADIMIR SHOPOV, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

— WEIBO’S DISNEYLAND COVID AIR-KISS: Shanghai authorities responded to a Covid-19 case linked to the city’s Disneyland by locking down the park Sunday and deploying a small army of health workers to do rapid testing of 30,000 visitors trapped in the Magic Kingdom. Weibo couldn’t have been happier: the hashtag “Shanghai Disney nucleic acid testing site has love” had garnered more than 150 million shares by Wednesday.

Weibo moderators packaged a feel-good story emphasizing an “orderly and cooperative” public response, praise for the “angels in white” who administered the tests, and references to how “economic and social stability” support China’s anti-Covid-19 efforts. But epidemiologists question how long and at what cost China can maintain the “zero Covid strategy” behind the Disneyland testing operation — particularly given that Covid-19 cases have recently emerged in eight provinces, including Beijing and Chongqing.

“The Chinese can do things that virtually no other country in the world can do [to control Covid-19] ... but the question becomes how long can that last before [they] start having substantial interruptions in everyday life that are not sustainable and start to really have an impact on [China’s] economy,” MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told China Watcher.

Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Luiza Ch. Savage, Matt Kaminski and editor John Yearwood.

Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at [email protected]