Andrew Scheer wants to finish the job
August 23, 2021Presented by Food, Health & Consumer Products of Canada
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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, the federal campaign enters its second week. Federal officials are still working around the clock to extract Canadians and Afghans from Kabul. The Liberals are teeing up gotcha videos they hope will knock the Tories off their game. And Andrew Scheer isn't done yet.
HURRY UP AND WAIT — On the long list of questions about Canada’s response to events in Afghanistan, here’s one from NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH: “Did Justin Trudeau spend more time focusing on an election, rather than focusing on this humanitarian crisis? I think it’s a legitimate question,” he told reporters on Sunday morning in Toronto’s Nathan Phillips Square.
Later this morning, government officials will share the latest details during a technical briefing.
U.S. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CNN on Sunday that the Biden administration is “not going to rest” until all civilians, both Americans and Afghan allies of the U.S., are evacuated from Afghanistan. Over on ABC’s “This Week,” U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said nobody predicted "the government would fall in 11 days."
Canada’s response has been the subject of heavy criticism and intense debate:
— NOAH RICHLER in the Globe: “We have migrated from soft power to powerlessness, to being meaningless players in a turbulent world that needs the disparaged prior version of us. Shame on us.”
— KEVIN NEWMAN on the Line: “The government continues to claim a C-17 will come and go each day. But do the math. If even a hundred daily Canadian cases make those flights, (nowhere near that many have so far), there is no way the vast majority of applicants will make it here before the window closes for evacuations.”
— BOB FIFE in The Globe and Mail: Sajjan: Canadian special forces may be used to rescue Afghan interpreters, support staff from Kabul.
Immigration Minister MARCO MENDICINO insists Canada is “exhausting every effort” and will do “whatever it takes” to get eligible Afghans on flights. More than 1,000 Afghans have been flown out to date, he said.
“I was on a call earlier this week with my Five Eyes counterparts where we agreed to continue to coordinate at the highest level so that we can get as many people out as possible,” he told CBC’s ROSEMARY BARTON on Sunday. “Yes, we will stay until the last possible moment to get as many Afghans out as possible.”
United appeal: Canadian news organizations have united behind the Canadian Association of Journalists and the Canadian Journalists for Free Expression to press the federal government to aid the Afghan journalists and workers who have supported Canada. “We cannot abandon those Afghans who protected the lives of Canadians at their most desperate time of need,” the organizations said.
Worth watching: On top of the humanitarian crisis, NDP strategist ROBIN SEARS suggests the tragedy could become a campaign issue: “This is beginning to look like an opportunity for Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh to use this disaster as a wedge to attack the Trudeau government’s often shambolic international relations record more broadly.”
LAYTON'S LEGACY — The legendary former NDP leader died 10 years ago. His family and friends and closest confidants and artists — including STEVEN PAGE, SARAH HARMER, DONOVAN WOODS and RUPI KAUR — honored his enduring mark on politics with a tribute.
Twitter on Sunday traded in memories of Aug. 22, 2011. BlueSky Strategy's CAMERON HOLMSTROM reflected on the moment he heard the news: "I sat in my chair, stunned, sobbing, devastated in the moment." OLIVIA CHOW and BRIAN TOPP write that Layton's legacy still shapes #cdnpoli.
— What's in a name? Singh pitched a private member’s bill that would rename Toronto-Danforth to Danforth-Layton, a move not without precedent. Twitter got in a tizzy. What do you think? Let us know here.
VAXX SCENE — Canadian Chamber of Commerce boss PERRIN BEATTY on Twitter: "Does any government in Canada still need to be persuaded that the fourth wave is here? What are their plans to manage it without returning to general lockdowns?"
'AIR RAID SIREN' — That's how SCOTT REID (more from him below) described a Saturday EKOS tracking poll that had the Liberals falling to a statistical tie with the Tories. ERIN O'TOOLE's party was ahead in every region west of Quebec, and leading among working-class voters. Outlier or new trend? Keep an eye on EKOS's competitors.
— Trudeau rivals eye an upset: Conservatives and New Democrats spent much of the summer nursing low hopes of a victory. But Earnscliffe's SHAKIR CHAMBERS, a Toronto-based Tory, shared a blueprint with POLITICO that’s suddenly looking plausible. Chambers says his party would benefit from a strong NDP. KATHLEEN MONK, a strategist for that party, is bullish on Singh's ability to translate all the hype around her leader into real votes.
— Going negative: Trudeau and his cabinet have been attacking the Tories on mandatory vaccines, abortion and conscience rights, universal health care. Longtime political strategist RICK ANDERSON points out that "something is off" when the odds-on favorites "focus on their adversaries."
— Manipulated media: That's how Twitter characterized CHRYSTIA FREELAND's attack on ERIN O'TOOLE's apparent support for for-profit health-care providers. Freeland posted a video of O'Toole at a town hall telling Summa Strategies vice-chair KATE HARRISON that there's room for profit in the health-care system. Instant wedge, right?
— What the Liberals left out: "We need to ensure universal access remains paramount."
— Duel for momentum: The Toronto Star reports that Liberals will "stay on the offensive" this week. CBC News reports that Conservatives are feeling good at the outset of Week 2.
Who has momentum going into Week 2?
Since POLITICO Canada is collaborating with The Herle Burly on 2021 campaign coverage — find out more about them here — we asked DAVID HERLE, SCOTT REID and JENNI BYRNE.
We also asked: Who won Week 1?
HERLE: The only momentum so far is negative momentum for the Liberals. The other parties have not caught public imagination or even interest, but the Liberals have raised questions about themselves.
First week winner is Erin O’Toole, largely by default.
REID: Sh---y was the big winner of Week 1. Sh---y launch by the Liberals. As in 'sinking-like-a-wounded-submarine' Sh---y . So … really sh---y . Sorta sh---y for O'Toole because after a couple of clean days he was forced to Elvis Stojko around abortion, conscience rights and vaccinated candidates. And definitely sh---y for the NDP because Singh's strong performance and pretty effective policy announcements didn't seem to budge his standing in the polls (which puzzles me, frankly).
The CPC emerges from that swamp of sh---y tied or atop the polls. So they clearly have the momentum. And that's gotta feel pretty good for them after only a few days.
Week 2 is going to be a huge tester for Team Trudeau. They've got the ingredients to cook themselves up a comeback. We'll see by midweek if the PM can summon his inner Julia Child.
BYRNE: Erin O’Toole started this election last week with no expectations. The disciplined Conservative campaign and the weak showing from the Liberal war room has changed that.
Win goes to O’Toole — and he takes the Big Mo as well.
SWING VOTERS, WEEK 2: Herle tells POLITICO that it’s telling of Week 1 that even people who signed up to participate in his focus group could not be bothered to engage. “We heard that the first week of the election wasn’t very interesting,” he said after a Saturday afternoon session. “It didn’t have a lot of impact.”
“Through the Looking Glass: Swing Voters 2021” will follow 10 voters until Canadians go to the polls next month. So far, the campaign trail debate has yet to make much of an impression on the group, though it’s starting to filter through. “Some people heard about abortion and choice, some people heard about vaccines.”
“The significant movement we’ve seen in the polls is not really based on anything that anybody has done or any new development,” Herle said Saturday evening. “It’s really just the drift of the first week of a campaign that didn’t really seem to be about anything and a government that didn’t really put that much on the table for people to digest.”
— Duly noted: Afghanistan didn't come up once in this week's focus group.
Check out our five takeaways from the Saturday session.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau spent Sunday in the Maritimes. He visited New Brunswick's Miramichi—Grand Lake, where the Liberals barely won in 2019, lost the incumbent advantage, and are up against former provincial cabinet minister JAKE STEWART. Trudeau also hit up Prince Edward Island's Malpeque, where WAYNE EASTER is retiring and Conservatives recruited banking executive JODY SANDERSON.
This morning, Trudeau is in Halifax for a 9:30 AT announcement at Dalhousie University's Collaborative Health Education Building. He'll then fly to St. John's for a 6 AT meetup with supporters at Quidi Vidi Wharf. The Liberals hope to flip that riding after popular New Democrat JACK HARRIS decided not to run again.
Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole started the weekend in Edmonton before heading to the lower mainland for stops in Delta and New Westminster. Today, O'Toole is in Ottawa for an 11 ET announcement and two evening town halls at his Westin studio: Ontarians talk to him at 6:45, and Manitobans follow at 8:30.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh starts the day in a certain prime minister's backyard. Singh will make a 9:15 ET announcement at Parc Jeanne Mance, directly across the street from the Sir George-Étienne Cartier statue. He'll visit local businesses with his party's lone Quebec MP, ALEXANDRE BOULERICE. But they're not heading to Boulerice's neighboring riding — they're staying put in Papineau.
Green Leader Annamie Paul is planning a 2:30 ET presser "about the culture of federal politics" from Corktown Common in Toronto Centre. Paul will meet up with provincial party leader MIKE SCHREINER at the corner of Carlton and Parliament. They cap the day with drinks at House on Parliament.
— Twitter poll: Leaders tours travel far and wide. But there are all kinds of cities they don't visit as they touch down in swing ridings and play defense in others. We want to know which of four contenders you think they'll visit the least this week. Vote here.
REGINA, SASK. — On a sweltering day in Regina, ANDREW SCHEER met POLITICO at his modest strip mall constituency office. Scheer was far away from Stornoway, the Official Opposition leader's residence in chichi Rockcliffe Park where he lived for two years. He lost that job after the 2019 election, but he's back on the trail — and ready for another term.
WHY HE'S RUNNING AGAIN — Ask a Conservative politico why Scheer wants more years in Ottawa and many assume it's because it's all he knows. He was first elected as a young man in 2004 after a brief stint in insurance. All these years later, what motivates him?
✔ The national goal: "In 2019, I had a tremendous amount of success. While we fell short of our ultimate goal, we gained seats in almost every region of the country, won the popular vote, and I want to be part of the culmination of that and finish the job."
✔ The local goal: "I believe that Saskatchewan and Western Canada need very strong voices to get the attention of people in Ontario and central Canada to say, 'Hey, we've got real problems out here.' And I believe I've been effective at that in the past. And I I know I can serve my province and my community well, by continuing to do it."
— Leadership drought: Trudeau whistle stopped at the Regina airport last Friday as raindrops fell. A politician who was not just passing through might have recognized the dire need for moisture in the ground as farmers across the Prairies struggle against parched conditions. Instead, Trudeau made a joke: "Gotta love Saskatchewan summers."
Scheer later called Trudeau a coward. "I guess he didn’t .... have the backbone to meet the farmers and ranchers hit hard by drought that he has ignored," he tweeted. The former Tory boss also name-checked local steelworkers who've faced layoffs and Indigenous communities that still face boil-water advisories.
— He's a gamer: POLITICO asked Scheer what nobody in Ottawa knows about him. Turns out he stays up late playing video games, and blames one of his sons for getting him hooked. "He'll say he's found this new game, and he'll show it to me, and then two or three days later at 11 o'clock at night, I'll start playing it. And then at 3 in the morning I'll say, I've got to get to sleep now. I have things to do tomorrow."
The latest example: Crusader Kings 3. When POLITICO checked in with Scheer later at the Riders game, he added another fave: Madden, the legendary football franchise.
Is climate change a priority for Canadians?
Some insight from David Coletto and our polling partner Abacus Data:
In a pre-election survey, 46 percent of respondents said climate change would be one of five top issues that would drive their vote. This is a 7-point increase from the 2019 campaign.
When asked which party is best able to deal with the issue, among those who ranked it as a top issue, 34 percent picked the Liberals followed by 22 percent for the Greens, 14 percent for the NDP and 7 percent for the Conservatives. Seventeen percent were unsure.
Over the past few years, the Liberals have been very effective at differentiating themselves from the other party on a growing concern for Canadians. What was typically an easy win for the Greens, is no longer the case. If climate change becomes a defining issue of the campaign, this will serve the Liberals well.
For information about this survey, including the methodology follow this link.
Pro subscribers will want to read Andy Blatchford’s latest deep dive on the Canada-U.S. relationship. The gist: Joe Biden’s presence has improved the tone at the highest levels — but many believe the friendlier American face overshadows tough, bilateral economic challenges. Blatchford’s bilateral check-in includes insight from ROY NORTON, MARK AGNEW, DENNIS DARBY, BRUCE HEYMAN and others.
In other news for Pros:
— House returns today to an infrastructure staring contest.
— Space Beat Memo: The Space Force's org chart is locking in place.
— U.S. extends border restrictions on Canadians. Trudeau asked about re-sealing frontier to Americans.
— Tesla’s German factory pits politicians against environmentalists.
How the Economist sees it: “The country does not need an election now. But the prime minister does.”
The Canadian Election Misinformation Project is up and running via McGill University and the University of Toronto. The initiative is financed by Global Affairs Canada and the Public Policy Forum and involves a number of organizations. TAYLOR OWEN and PETER LOEWEN and AENGUS BRIDGMAN will champion the effort.
“At some point in the future, we may look back upon this time and recognize that this is when we started to realize we were in decline,” Andrew Potter writes in a Globe and Mail piece inspired by his new book, On Decline: Stagnation, Nostalgia, and Why Every Year is the Worst One Ever.
On CBC’s The House, David Thurton has a great look at the race in Toronto Centre where Annamie Paul is up against former broadcaster and new-ish MP MARCI IEN.
Stat’s Helen Branswell details how the Biden’s administration’s decision on Covid-19 boosters has been met by “bafflement, concern, and even anger” from immunologists, vaccinologists and other experts.
Birthdays: Sen. BEV BUSSON celebrates a milestone today (70). … Former broadcaster and politician ISABEL BASSETT is 82. … Former Liberal justice minister MARTIN CAUCHON is 59.
Spotted: FARAH MOHAMED, formerly of G(irls)20 and the Malala Fund, announcing with GARY ZED the launch of Canada’s Forest Trust. … Barrie-Innisfil Liberal candidate LISA-MARIE WILSON, officially cancer-free… The CBC’s KATIE SIMPSON Washington bound. … Pollster COLETTO sailing in Nova Scotia … AILISH CAMPBELL, ambassador of Canada to the EU, on tour at the Louvre.
SCOTTY GREENWOOD, CEO of the Canadian-American Business Council, sharing advice on managing burnout: “Get outside for at least a bit of time every single day. Even if it's 100 degrees, even if it’s raining … ” It was nearly 100 degrees — counting the humidex — when Liberal candidate YASIR NAQVI appeared in Ottawa Centre’s McKellar Park on Saturday to tap elbows and knock on doors. … PIERRE POILIEVRE and ERIC DUNCAN were out campaigning in Osgoode.
Former Conservative cabinet minister JOHN BAIRD showed up on the stump in Markham-Stouffville with candidates BEN SMITH and BOB SAROYA. … The voice of the Toronto Maple Leafs, JOE BOWEN, picking another blue team.
What is happening? Questions about the campaign? Send them our way.
Answer to Friday’s question: It was John Diefenbaker who said, “The right to vote is one of the great privileges of democratic society, for after all it is you the people, not the Gallup poll, who determine into whose hands the guidance of public affairs may best be entrusted.” Congrats to Bob Gordon who had the answer.
Today’s question: Who is the one Canadian citizen over the age of 18 who is not allowed to vote in a federal election?
Send your answers to [email protected]
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Thanks to Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan, Zi-Ann Lum and Andy Blatchford.
Source: https://www.politico.com/