But if China’s economy is on the rise, external relations are at an all-time low. And unless the Beijing significantly eases its entry and quarantine restrictions, the damage to bilateral business, diplomatic and cultural ties will worsen, warn U.S. businesses and organizations geared to U.S.-China engagement.

“A cost of this zero-tolerance policy that I don’t think is fully understood … is [that] the lack of people-to-people exchanges — with Chinese coming here and Americans going there — is actually worsening the relationship [because] there's a dehumanization,” said Stephen A. Orlins, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

China’s zero Covid strategy hinges on a rigorous system of quarantine, testing and isolation of positive cases as well as community lockdowns and travel restrictions to mitigate viral spread. That approach has been wildly successful from a public health perspective. Johns Hopkins University data indicate that China has recorded only 4,849 deaths from Covid-19, compared to 785,900 in the U.S.

China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention last month released a modeling study that predicted that a relaxation in current Covid controls would create hundreds of thousands of new infections and inflict “a devastating impact on the medical system of China and cause a great disaster within the nation.” State media, meanwhile, are doubling down on defending the zero Covid strategy.

There are political imperatives for maintaining those strict Covid control policies: President Xi Jinping wants to preserve his credibility for successful coronavirus control in the lead-up to the 20th Party Congress at the end of next year when he is widely expected to seek an unprecedented third term as China’s leader. The construction of new mass quarantine facilities designed to house thousands of overseas arrivals indicates that the current quarantine system is becoming a permanent fixture of inbound Chinese travel.

But a possible loosening of the entry and quarantine restrictions was one of the deliverables from last month’s virtual meeting between Xi and President Joe Biden. In that meeting, Xi “agreed to upgrade fast-track arrangements, which will further enhance economic and trade exchanges between China and the US and boost the recovery of the two economies.”

Qin expanded on Xi’s commitment by announcing on Thursday that approval turnaround for what the government terms “PU invitation letters” would be reduced to “no more than 10 working days.” The government will also make mandatory testing and quarantine “more convenient” through measures, including the creation of “quarantine bubbles” that may allow business travelers to meet face-to-face with China-based colleagues, staff and clients upon arrival. Details of the fast-track plan will be released shortly, Qin said.

“Details matter, and we’re eager to know how the current lengthy time in quarantine might be altered [and] what does the reference to a ‘bubble’ mean in terms of allowing the arriving business traveler to work while keeping others safe?” said Douglas K. Barry, senior director of communications at the U.S.-China Business Council.

A person familiar with the Chinese government plans for its “fast track” business travel plan said it’s targeted at “the factory engineer or technician that needs to fly in and fly out,” rather than long-term resident expatriate workers. The plan will allow companies “to move foreign workers into China and travel directly to a work location in a travel bubble,” the person said.

The first hurdle for business travelers seeking to visit China in the Covid era is the acquisition of a PU invitation letter from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A lawyer who handles U.S.-China visas and asked to remain anonymous for fear of being seen as critical of Chinese state policy told POLITICO that these applications are subject to a glacial bureaucratic process and are frequently denied. Applicants must be able to demonstrate the “urgent economic, trade, scientific, technological or humanitarian” nature of their China travel plans to improve their chances of approval, the lawyer said. “The application has to be reviewed by several levels of foreign affairs offices and it can take two to three months of back and forth with the authorities in order to obtain the PU invitation letter,” he added.

Business travelers whose invitation letters are approved must then apply for single-entry visas and brace for lengthy quarantine upon arrival. Quarantine duration — which varies according to arrival point and final destination — ranges from 21 days in Shanghai to 28 days for travelers bound for provinces of Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangsu. Hong Kong requires visitors from the U.S to undergo 21 days of compulsory quarantine in a designated quarantine hotel followed by 7 days of “self-monitoring.”

Other municipalities impose even more draconian quarantines. “In Shenyang it's 28 days in quarantine and then 28 days in a hotel — that’s 56 days,” said Ben Zhang, chief executive officer of Bellevue, Washington-based Greater Pacific Industries, an original equipment manufacturer and importer that has relied on Chinese suppliers for more than 25 years. “If I go to China for business, I want to talk to some decision makers in the factories and get my projects moving. I can't wait for 56 days to do that.”

Another U.S.-based importer said that quarantine durations and conditions have deterred him from traveling to China to meet with his staff. The result has been a collapse of team cohesion and corporate culture that he spent decades to create. He is scrambling to try to arrange meetings with staff in third countries to avoid the Chinese quarantine restrictions.

“If I could choose the hotel and choose the food for the quarantine, it would be a different story,” he said. “But instead, you’re locked in a hotel chosen by the government and you’re eating food wrapped in plastic that is cold, bland and the same thing every day — it’s like being in prison.”

Travel from China to the U.S. has also slowed to a trickle. Although the U.S. last month eased Covid-related entrance restrictions on travelers from China to a proof of vaccination requirement, mandatory quarantine to reenter China remains a strong deterrent, the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’ Orlins said. And anyone trying to leave China must scramble for scarce seats on drastically reduced flights. The country’s airline regulator announced in October that international flights to and from China would remain at just 2.2 percent of pre-pandemic levels until at least April 2022. That undersupply of airline seats in the face of high demand has caused ticket prices to skyrocket.

U.S.-based companies and organizations with China operations have coped with the past 21 months of disruption through virtual platforms, including Zoom. But their use limits the candor and depth of conversation necessary to achieve effective communication, particularly among government officials, academics and businesspeople. There are also concerns about potential electronic eavesdropping.

That has been particularly problematic for the NCUSCR’s track two convenings of former U.S. government Cabinet officials and senior Chinese leaders to informally discuss bilateral strategic and economic issues. “You can't build a relationship on Zoom [and] what you lose is the informal off the record [discussion] … when nobody [else] is listening,” Orlins said.

Zhang says Zoom negates the ability to create “guanxi,” a concept of mutually supportive social and business networks that are essential to corporate success in China. “With guanxi, you frequently get better payment terms, shorter lead times, better quality control and more attentiveness to the project,” Zhang said.

Zhang has pivoted some of his sourcing to parts of Southeast Asia with less onerous quarantine restrictions.

U.S. business organizations’ efforts to convince Chinese authorities to loosen quarantine restrictions have hit a brick wall. The president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong resigned in protest last month over the territory’s three-week quarantine protocols. And 70 percent of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai members have reported difficulties recruiting and retaining expatriate staff due to quarantine restrictions, said Ker Gibbs, Amcham Shanghai president.

“The quarantine is a challenge [and] we’ve asked [Chinese authorities] if they could consider a more limited two-three days in the central quarantine, after which people could self-isolate in a more comfortable situation at home or in another approved facility,” Gibbs said.

The zero Covid strategy’s longer-term impact on China’s economy — from aborted business deals to port closures and disrupted supply chains — may be what finally tips the Chinese government into rethinking the policy. Though experts say that’s unlikely to happen until Xi has safely secured his third term as China’s leader later next year.

“The rest of the world is watching because their economy is dependent on China's ability to maintain its global supply chains,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “At what point do other countries start asking: ‘Do I need to have reliance on other supply chains because if [China] is going to continue this policy will I still be at the whims [of zero-tolerance lockdowns?].’”