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BUCKLE UP: We’re in for a busy week in Washington on the economic front, with a possible deal in the coming days on President Joe Biden’s social spending bill, and new economic data on third-quarter growth and inflation. Plus, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra testifies on the Hill for the first time since his confirmation, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen heads to Italy for the G-20. Let’s dive in!

Deal or no deal? After a meeting of the minds in Delaware this weekend, it looks like Biden and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are closing in on an agreement over a sweeping package that would make new investments in climate programs, child care, health care and education, our colleagues Burgess Everett, Heather Caygle and Marianne Levine report. They’re still far apart on a number — Manchin wants $1.5 trillion, while the White House and Democratic lawmakers are still aiming for $2 trillion in new spending. Two programs potentially on the chopping block: paid leave and a Medicare expansion to cover dental, vision and hearing.

Asked whether paid leave would be in the final package, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday, “That’s our hope, that’s what we’re fighting for.” (She acknowledged Medicare “is part of the negotiation” but noted “dental is very expensive.”)

Raise the revenue — While the White House works with Manchin on possible spending trims, Democrats are still working Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on alternative proposals to offset the spending with new revenue, including a minimum tax on corporations and a new billionaires’ tax. Those proposals will likely be unveiled on Wednesday, a person familiar with the matter tells MM. (Here’s our Brian Faler with details on the wealth tax proposal.)

The upshot: It’s unlikely that Congress passes this legislation by the end of the month, but House leaders may now hold a vote on the infrastructure bill as soon as Wednesday — a sign of how quickly talks are progressing on the social spending bill.

Delta dive? As the talks are coming to a head, the Commerce Department will release its report on third-quarter gross domestic product Thursday morning, giving us the first look at the impact of the Delta variant on economic activity last summer. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect growth slowed markedly from July through September, growing at a 3 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared with 6.7 percent in the second quarter.

Under (price) pressure: And on Friday, Commerce releases the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, edged slightly lower in September compared with the previous month.

But continued supply chain disruptions and strong consumer demand mean prices will likely remain elevated well into next year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday in a panel discussion with the Bank for International Settlements. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a similar warning Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union, saying she expected improvement on inflation “by the middle to end of next year.”

Could another high inflation reading and a weak GDP report complicate the 11th hour discussions on the president’s agenda? Probably not, says Cornerstone Macro’s Andy Laperriere. “This is a long-term policy decision about the size and role of government they have to make,” he tells MM. “Maybe with Manchin’s concern about inflation,” he added, “that is marginally more important.”

Powell Watch: Here’s Yellen defending Powell’s record on financial regulation on CNN Sunday: “It’s important to note that, when the pandemic struck, although there were huge stresses in financial markets, that the core of our financial system did very well because of the improvements in capital, liquidity, risk management, stress testing. And those improvements have stayed in place during the Powell regime.” (The comment of course drew swift pushback from Powell critics.)

FWIW, former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder says in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Biden should quickly renominate Powell and tap Governor Lael Brainard — viewed as a possible Powell successor — as the Fed’s vice chair for supervision.

HAPPY MONDAY--I’m your host, Kate Davidson, geared up and ready for my first full week hosting MM (while still mending my cracked, Red-Sox-loving heart). Your tips, flags and insights were so helpful last week — please keep them coming! The rest of you, don’t be shy: Email me at [email protected] or DM @KateDavidson on Twitter, or hit up Aubree Weaver at [email protected].

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission hosts a meeting by teleconference of the Global Markets Advisory Committee Monday morning … Bank Policy Institute hosts a symposium on financial inclusion Tuesday … Senate Finance Committee meets Tuesday to consider several U.S. Trade Representative and Treasury Department nominations, including Joshua Frost to be assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets.

Commerce Department releases third-quarter GDP data on Thursday … Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo speaks Thursday at USTelecom’s 2021 Broadband Investment Forum … Commerce releases consumer spending and inflation data Friday morning.

CHOPRA ON THE HILL: The CFPB’s new director, Rohit Chopra, will appear at 10 a.m. Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee, and at the same time Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee. Chopra is testifying as part of the committee’s semi-annual review of the consumer bureau.

Expect questions from both sides on his letter last week to big-tech firms demanding details on how they’re using consumer data, as well as his plans to work with the Justice Department to crack down on redlining (see below for more on the latter from our Katy O’Donnell). Republicans are also likely to press him on reports of career staffers at the agency being pushed out to clear the decks for him.

Transitions: Bloomberg Law’s Lydia Beyoud and Evan Weinberger (citing several people familiar with the matter) report that Seth Frotman, the agency’s student loan ombudsman during the Obama administration, is heading back to work for Chopra as an adviser, along with Eric Halperin, a former Obama Justice Department fair lending official who is reportedly stepping in as the agency’s enforcement director. (A CFPB spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Sunday.)

ICYMI: CRYPTO SCOOP: If you weren’t tied to your email Friday afternoon (we forgive you) you might have missed big news from our Victoria Guida that a top regulator quietly determined during the final days of the Trump presidency that banks are legally allowed to trade cryptocurrencies on behalf of clients.

WYDEN WEALTH TAX: More details on the new wealth tax proposal we flagged above, from our Brian Faler: “Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden’s still-unreleased proposal would require people who have more than $1 billion in wealth or earn more than $100 million for three consecutive years to pay taxes on assets they hold, even if they don’t sell them, according to a summary of the plan.”

What we’ll be watching: Treasury’s Natasha Sarin, a key architect behind the Biden administration’s plans to crack down on tax avoidance, participates in a moderated discussion with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget at 3 p.m. on Tuesday. The proposals, including new IRS reporting requirements, have gotten blow-back from Republicans and the banking industry.

FED BLACKOUT BEGINS — The Federal Reserve begins its blackout period ahead of its Nov. 2-3 policy meeting, meaning we won’t hear this week from any central bank officials. In his last speech before the quiet period, Chair Powell said Friday the Fed was still on track to begin shrinking its asset purchases in November and would likely finish tapering by the middle of next year.

What’s next? Powell said the Fed isn’t close to raising interest rates. But markets have pulled forward their expectations for when the central bank may hike: Federal-funds futures markets are now pricing in two rate increases next year, with most expecting the first increase in June, according to CME Group. (Sidenote: When the Fed tapered following its last large-scale purchasing program, in 2014, Fed officials waited more than a year to raise rates in December 2015. Obviously, this is a very different recovery.)

YELLEN TO ROME — Janet Yellen heads to Italy for the Group of 20 joint finance and health ministers meeting on Friday. At the top of the agenda: ongoing discussions over a deal on a global minimum tax, a key plank of the Biden administration’s tax agenda.

From our colleague Helen Fessenden in Brussels: "When the U.S. on Thursday announced a détente with European countries that had slapped a levy on U.S.-based internet giants, it marked the latest piece of good news for negotiators crafting a comprehensive international agreement to tax corporate profits. But a much bigger question still hangs over these talks: Can the U.S. deliver on its promise to join in the global deal, which is meant to come into effect in 2023?”

REGULATORS, MOUNT UP: Our colleague Katy O’Donnell reports Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday said the Justice Department and financial regulators will ramp up scrutiny of discrimination by banks and other mortgage lenders, in the Biden administration's latest bid to combat economic barriers to racial equity.

HIGH INFLATION CREATES TAX WINNERS, LOSERS — WSJ’s Richard Rubin: “Inflation is about to ripple through the tax code—and the nation’s mishmash of tax provisions means some people will be hurt and some won’t. As inflation trends near a 13-year high, middle-income workers will benefit from automatic annual adjustments to tax provisions such as the standard deduction for income taxes. Some other provisions are frozen in time, stuck to specific dollar amounts from decades ago. Those provisions tend to pinch higher-income households.”

CHINESE ECONOMY RISKS DEEPER SLOWDOWN THAN MARKETS REALIZE — Bloomberg’s Tom Hancock and Enda Curran: “China’s economy risks slowing faster than global investors realize as President Xi Jinping’s push to cut its reliance on real estate and regulate sectors from education to technology combine with a power shortage and the pandemic.”

TECH GIANTS’ EARNINGS MAY BE ANOTHER TEST FOR MARKETS AT NEW HIGHS — Reuters’ Lewis Krauskopf: “Investors are homing in on a flood of earnings reports from Wall Street’s tech and Internet giants, as the high-growth stocks that have led markets higher for years face pressures from regulation, supply-chain snags and rising Treasury yields. Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Google parent Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. are all set to report earnings [this] week.”

ENERGY-STOCK SURGE LEAVES CLIMATE-FOCUSED INVESTORS BEHIND — WSJ’s Amrith Ramkumar: “A surge in energy stocks is challenging climate-conscious money managers who beat the market for years when the sector struggled but are now missing out on Wall Street’s hottest trade.”