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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with POLITICO Canada’s Andy Blatchford. Today, the U.S. announces a new intelligence pact that excludes Canada. Jason Kenney declares another emergency in Alberta. The debate about the debate in Quebec isn't going away. And we sketch out all the vote splits that could swing key ridings.

AUKUS POCUS — Our friends at POLITICO's national security desk scored a Wednesday scoop when they reported U.S. President JOE BIDEN would soon announce a “new pact with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China.” Notably missing from the alliance? Canada. (This fact did not go unnoticed.)

Read the full scoop from POLITICO's ALEX WARD and PAUL MCCLEARY — and subscribe to our National Security Daily newsletter.

THIS ONE HAS LEGS — A controversy set off by a question to Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET during last week’s English-language debate refuses to die down in Quebec. In fact, it’s heating up.

— The issue: As you’ve no doubt heard, moderator SHACHI KURL challenged Blanchet over his party’s support for “discriminatory” provincial legislation on secularism and the French language. The question itself sparked anger as an attack on Quebec’s autonomy in a francophone majority province with a long history of pushing for more freedoms from Ottawa. If you want to know more, we laid everything out in Wednesday’s Playbook.

— The effect: Any reaction on voting day from the province’s volatile electorate has the potential to shift the national results in next Monday’s federal election.

Early signs have pointed to movement. Leger Marketing released research this week suggesting a three-point bump in support for the Bloc following the debate. The firm said the change, if it holds, could be big enough to shave seats from the Liberals and possibly, to a lesser degree, the Conservatives.

— The momentum: On Wednesday, six days after the event, news stories about the debate question owned prominent territory on the front pages of two top dailies in Quebec.

Le Journal de Montréal tabloid led with the headline: “The question divides Canada (and it’s not the only one...).” On Page 3, the newspaper featured the headline above a photo of Kurl: “The return of the two solitudes.”

Le Devoir ran a front-page story about the Bloc-Liberal battles in the suburban swing ridings around Montreal. It led with voter concerns about the debate question. Bloc incumbent DENIS TRUDEL called the question “a game changer” in the campaign, the story reads.

Early Wednesday, Blanchet spoke with popular morning radio host PAUL ARCAND on Montreal’s 98.5 FM. “There's a part of me that says, yes, it's like a gift, it's unexpected, but the other part that says, no, it's just revealing,” Blanchet said of the question. “This is not a new situation, it is not a new perception that Canada has of Quebec.”

— Trudeau and O’Toole react: The Liberal and Conservative leaders each condemned the question following the debate. Their tight, two-way national race means neither can afford to lose seats in Quebec. On Wednesday, they separately called on the debate consortium to apologize for it.

“We’re tired of Quebec-bashing and singling out Quebec and I think the consortium should recognize that and apologize,” O’Toole told reporters in Saguenay, Quebec.

Asked about the issue, Trudeau said in Halifax: “The premise of the question was unacceptable and I think it’s important that the consortium explain itself and apologize.”

— Questions about the question: The day after last Thursday’s debate, Kurl shared some details about the question. “This was an issue that was vetted by several levels in the organization before moving forward,” she was quoted as saying in a Le Devoir story.

Leon Mar, a spokesperson for Debate Broadcast Group, told POLITICO on Wednesday that Kurl was referring to the Debate Broadcast Group, which includes APTN News, CBC News, CTV News and Global News, and not the Leaders' Debates Commission. The Commission issued a press release the day after the debate stating the moderator and participating journalists had “complete journalistic and editorial independence from the Leaders' Debates Commission.”

FORGET THE HATERS — It's no secret that Canada's political elite hated the format of the English-language debate and spared little sympathy for Kurl's job as moderator. But the response wasn't unanimous. That's if you believe a poll conducted by Kurl's Angus Reid Institute that asked Canadians for their impressions. (We should note the polling company had no role in the debate.)

— The verdict: Fifty-four percent of respondents found the debate "engaging" or "very engaging." Forty-six percent "learned a little," while another 17 percent "learned a lot." Sixty-three percent said the debate informed their vote.

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE SPLITS — A neck-and-neck national polling race in a country as big as Canada and a possible Pizza Parliament on the other side of E-Day invites a simple conclusion: It's complicated, and anything can happen. CBC's Poll Tracker gives the Liberals a 0.6-point lead over the Tories. 338Canada pegs the advantage at 0.3 points.

A statistical topline tie obscures regional strengths and weaknesses. But regional polls typically don't offer a representative sample. And micro-variables add yet more uncertainty. LISA HEPFNER, a rookie Liberal politician in Hamilton Mountain, connects instantly with voters who recognize her from decades of TV journalism. Could that push her over the top in a riding that has elected New Democrats five times in a row?

It adds up to a dog's breakfast. But hiding within pollsters' calculations are hints at vote splits that could make the difference between a nail-biter and a blowout. Here are four to watch:

⟹ Green gap: The clock ran out on ANNAMIE PAUL's team, which only managed to nominate 252 candidates across Canada. Those local gaps aren't reflected in national polls, but they could swing the vote in tight races where Liberals lost in 2019.

↳ 905: In Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Tory LEONA ALLESLEV squeaked past the Liberals by 2 points. TIMOTHY FLEMMING pulled 4 percent for the Greens.

↳ Lower mainland: The Greens easily covered the spread in four Tory wins: Port Moody-Coquitlam, where NELLY SHIN snuck up the middle to beat a Liberal and New Democrat; Cloverdale-Langley City, where TAMARA JANSEN bested JOHN ALDAG; Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, where MARC DALTON beat DAN RUIMY; and South Surrey-White Rock, where KERRY-LYNNE FINDLAY edged out GORDIE HOGG.

↳ Quebec: In Montarville, Bloquiste STÉPHANE BERGERON scooped up a cratering NDP vote to beat Liberal MICHEL PICARD by 7 points. The Greens hoovered up 5 percent.

↳ Nova Scotia: In West Nova, Tory CHRIS D'ENTREMONT scored a 3-point win over COLIN FRASER. But Green candidate JUDY GREEN finished third with 12 percent.

⟹ People's parting: The major aggregators show MAXIME BERNIER's People's Party gaining steam after Labor Day — with current support sitting at about 6 percent. CBC's Vote Compass has found that 59 percent of the party's supporters voted Tory in 2019.

If Bernier's support holds, that shaves an average of 3.5 points off the Tory vote — leakage that could be magnified in rural ridings where Liberals have won before, like former MP MIKE BOSSIO in Hastings-Lennox and Addington and ALISON LESTER in neighboring Northumberland-Peterborough South.

⟹ Bloc block: Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT's endorsement of O'Toole could lead to unintended consequences — say, splitting the federalist vote so the Bloc Québécois triumphs in three-way races in Hochelaga, Châteauguay-Lacolle and Compton-Stanstead.

Even more consequential is the lasting effect of the brouhaha over the English-language debate that could catapult Blanchet's party to big gains. Or not. If the Bloc loses momentum, Liberals could be the beneficiaries.

⟹ New Demo-splat: It's an age-old tradition. Every time Liberals sniff a whiff of defeat, they tack left and say what needs saying to persuade soft NDP supporters to vote strategically — lest the Tories get a chance at power.

Toronto is ground zero for this tussle. In 2011, New Democrats won eight ridings. They lost them all in 2015, and failed to make gains in 2019. Expect close fights in areas that would never vote for O'Toole — but could prove pivotal in the Liberal quest for a majority.

Or not.

WHAT THE MARKET SAYS — UBC's Sauder School of Business runs a non-profit prediction market for the outcome of next week's election. Real investors get in on the act — anyone over 19 can invest as much as C$1,000. The Tories trended up in the campaign's first half, but the market now appears to be favoring a weakened Liberal minority.

336 — That's the size of the NDP's national slate after a pair of candidates resigned for anti-semitic comments: SIDNEY COLES in Toronto-St. Paul's and DAN OSBORNE in Cumberland-Colchester. Both technically remain on the ballot.

INFLATION NATION — Statistics Canada yesterday posted a higher-than-expected annualized inflation reading for August of 4.1 percent, more than double the central bank’s ideal 2 percent target. The figure also represented the Consumer Price Index’s hottest pace since March 2003.

— The bank's take: Bank of Canada governor TIFF MACKLEM blamed pandemic price drops for the 2021 bounce. “This year’s inflation rate compares prices now with their depressed levels a year ago, making the increase appear more dramatic. We continue to expect that these factors pushing up inflation will be transitory, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain and we will be monitoring them closely."

— The econ take: Alberta-based economist TREVOR TOMBE ratcheted down anxiety about the cost of living. "Due to #Elxn44, some will take today's data and pull the fire alarm. This is premature. If one has a concern about monetary policy, then say so. Ignore those who don't take monetary policy seriously.”

— Trudeau's spin: “Our country and our world is bouncing back — coming roaring back in Canada's place — from an extreme crisis of this pandemic that has caused a lot of disruption and, yes, is increasing prices."

— O'Toole's spin: “The numbers released today make it clear that under Justin Trudeau, Canadians are experiencing an affordability crisis. It’s troubling that Justin Trudeau seems to not care about the skyrocketing cost of living that is being imposed on Canadians through inflation.”

ICYMI — Simon Fraser University's Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue hosted a youth leaders forum on Tuesday in which reps from four major parties traded visions for Canada's future. The roster included ANTHONY KOCH, a Tory activist and managing principal of AK Strategies; JULIE ASTLEY, a constituency assistant for Liberal TERRY BEECH; JAEDEN DELA TORRE, an assistant for B.C. NDP MLA AMAN SINGH; and KAYNE ALLEYNE-ADAMS, the Green Party's co-critic for youth.

Watch all 80 minutes of spirited exchange.

— The student vote: High school students across Canada submitted questions for major party leaders to CIVIX, an advocacy group that picked seven to put directly to the leaders. They asked about Covid recovery, leaders' top three priorities, reconciliation, education, environment and the economy, vulnerable populations, and leaders' own motivation.

Watch every answer to every question.

COVID WATCH — From the “best summer ever,” Alberta is now in a state of emergency declared Wednesday night by Premier JASON KENNEY. The province had lifted most restrictions meant to stop the spread of Covid. "It is now clear that we were wrong, and for that I apologize," Kenney said Wednesday night.

— New rules: Alberta's government will introduce a "restrictions exemption program" — a euphemism for a vaccine passport that will allow vaccinated Albertans, or those who present a negative test, access to various gathering spaces including restaurants, retail and weddings and funerals, and entertainment venues.

Albertans will also work from home unless their employer considers in-person presence essential to the job. New capacity limits will be enforced, masks will be mandatory in schools and only outdoor dining will be permitted at restaurants.

Every day, we're updating the most recent provincial data on Covid patients in critical care in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec. The change since the last provincial update is in parentheses.

Ontario: 188 (-4)
Alberta: 218 (+6)
British Columbia: 137 (-3)
Quebec: 85 (+7)

We're collaborating with The Herle Burly on 2021 campaign coverage. DAVID HERLE, SCOTT REID and JENNI BYRNE tackle a key question each day. Find out more about them here.

Today: How will Jason Kenney’s call for vaccine passports influence the federal campaign?

REID: Alberta is again in a state of emergency, and Jason Kenney is apologizing publicly for misjudging the virulence of the fourth wave. Rushing to make too much of the political implications of such a profound public health crisis almost feels unseemly. But clearly, the political implications are profound.

O'Toole will find it even harder to defend his "I respect all choices" position on vaccinations. But the Liberals have to be careful to avoid any sense of exuberance. People will not react well if it seems a situation this serious is being treated as a political opportunity.

HERLE: There are many different ways to look at it. Here’s one: O’Toole had planned a big messaging day. He is attempting a repositioning with five days left. Chutzpah. Signalling that he would leave the Liberal carbon price. Explicitly calling on voters to think past the past 30 years, to think past CPC, past Alliance, past Reform, and remember the halcyon days of Progressive Conservatism.

However, their big day got stepped on at the last minute by a much bigger story out of Alberta. When people say “events” matter in politics, this is what they mean.

BYRNE: The handling of Covid has been a challenge for all governments, regardless of their political stripe. The Alberta government's announcement probably won't have an effect on the federal election. People's thoughts and feelings about lockdowns and vaccine passports are already formed. Canadians are looking to governments for vision and policy that are not Covid-related — they want to be assured there is life out there past tests, vaccines and lockdowns.

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS — While politicians and pundits are still debating what they think of the federal leaders’ English debate, our focus group has firmed up its thoughts.

Antonio: “Pretty lackluster.”

Dragan: “So much interruption, I stopped watching.”

And Jane, one of the few in the group to watch from start to finish: “There were a lot of blanket statements … some out and out lies.”

Tara: “It is what it is.”

Their beef was not with the questions, but rather the non-answers. And with several days left in the campaign, they still want Trudeau to explain why he called an election in the middle of the fourth wave of a pandemic. Will this be an issue for Trudeau and the Liberals? Herle shares his thinking in the latest edition of the show, which you can find here.

Since the start of this campaign, DAVID COLETTO from our polling partner Abacus Data has joined Playbook daily to share a data point on the 2021 federal election. In the homestretch, Abacus is sharing the results of daily tracking. Here are today's highlights:

— Likely voters: For most of the campaign, Abacus found that Tories enjoyed a lead among those who were definitely going to vote. Tuesday's survey showed the Liberals up 2 points over the Tories (33-31). The third-place NDP was also up 3 points to 22 percent.

— Volatility: 30 percent of committed voters still say they might change their mind before marking a ballot. And 4 percent are still undecided.

— Regionals: The Liberals are running a distant third in British Columbia (outside the 7 percent margin of error), where Tories and New Democrats are locked in a duel. But Trudeau's team leads by 7 points in Ontario and 9 in Quebec.

For information about this data, please visit this link.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau swung through Fredericton, N.B., yesterday on his way to an evening event in Longueuil, Quebec. Today, he wakes up in Montreal for a 9:15 announcement.

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole is in the Maritimes today. He'll make an 11 AT announcement at a curling club in Saint John-Rothesay, the domain of Liberal WAYNE LONG. Former mayor MEL NORTON hopes to turn the riding blue.

O'Toole's next stop is a farmers' market across the Nova Scotia border in Truro. That riding is Cumberland-Colchester, home to Liberal LENORE ZANN — who only topped former Tory MP SCOTT ARMSTRONG by a single percentage point.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh makes a 9 ET housing announcement in Davenport, a central Toronto riding his party badly wants to win on Monday. Next up is a stop in Oshawa, a perennial target for New Democrats once held by ED BROADBENT. Then it's on to Kingston, where Liberals have won every election since 1988.

What is happening? Questions about the campaign? Send them our way.

Pro subscribers should not miss ANDY BLATCHFORD’s Pro PM Canada newsletter: Canada's 4.1 percent surprise: Now what?

Also for Pros, ZI-ANN LUM shares highlights from a debate on Canada’s access-to-information at which the word “shambolic” was used by MICHAEL WERNICK, a retired public servant assigned to argue on behalf of the system.

In other headlines for subscribers:

— Canadian National and Kansas City Southern call merger off.
— Moderna says data supports a booster vaccine, will file for emergency use.
— Biden to convene leaders for climate meeting Friday.
— Biden pulls punches on rights abusers.

— American authorities are increasingly concerned about radicalization on TikTok, POLITICO’s BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN and MARK SCOTT report.

— SABREENA DELHON, executive director of the Samara Centre for Democracy, makes the case for a digital democracy detox.

— Catch the debut of POLITICO’s newest pod, Global Insider, hosted by the outstanding RYAN HEATH.

— The University of Calgary Faculty of Law Blog features a new post from MARTIN OLSZYNSKI and SHARON MASCHER: Beyond carbon pricing: An assessment of the major parties’ other environmental policies.

— Our POLITICO friends in Europe have created a Germany Election Playbook.

— In the Calgary Herald, RAY ORB, reeve of the Rural Municipality of Cupar, Sask., explains why there can be no one-size-fits-all approach to Covid recovery.

Birthdays: Happy Birthday to JENNIFER HOLLETT, TODD LOEWEN, LYNDA HAVERSTOCK, SHEILA FRASER and TOM COURCHENE.

Movers and shakers: On Friday at Rideau Hall, Governor General MARY MAY SIMON will hold an honors ceremony for 13 Canadians, recognized for their courage, excellence or exceptional dedication to service. Follow this list to find a list of amazing people.

Noted: Twitter thread from Global News Ottawa bureau chief MERCEDES STEPHENSON on media access on the Liberal leader’s tour.

Wednesday’s answer: Jiminy Cricket! Canadian hockey legend HOWIE MEEKER, then Conservative MP for Waterloo South, passed the puck — in overtime — to BILL BARILKO in 1951, winning the Leafs the Stanley Cup.

(So many nice notes with today’s correct replies. Thanks, everyone.)

Trivia, for the win: TRACY SALMON, STEPHANIE CARRIERE, BILL DAY, MICHAEL MACDONALD, R. ROMANIN, TIM McCALLUM, LEIGH LAMPERT, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, PIERRE GRATTON, MICHAEL ELLIOTT, J. DAVID MCLENNAN, ALAN KAN and BOOTS VAISEY!

Thursday’s question: Name the magician who took a flier on the 1993 federal election.

Send your answers to [email protected]

Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: [email protected]

Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan, Zi-Ann Lum and Andy Blatchford.