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OPINION: TOO MUCH AND NEVER ENOUGH — During a summer of record-breaking heat waves, hideous wildfires and brutal droughts, as seas rise, storms intensify and glaciers vanish, President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats are pushing the boldest climate measures Washington has ever seen.

They’re trying to pass a clean electricity standard to phase out fossil-fueled power, electric vehicle incentives to start phasing out fossil-fueled transportation, and as much as $1 trillion worth of other carbon-cutting green stuff.

The thing is, even if they succeed, climate change will get worse.

This is the ugly political reality of climate science: The earth is going to keep getting hotter for a while no matter what. Even if the United States accelerated its transition to zero-emissions energy at a pace frantic enough to satisfy Greta Thunberg, even if every other nation followed suit, greenhouse gases would keep accumulating in the atmosphere, and even more extreme weather events would keep discombobulating our civilization. Future warming is literally baked in.

Of course, climate action is still existentially vital, because the more we do and the quicker we do it, the less disastrous things will get.

Humanity has already warmed the planet by about 1.2 degrees Celsius, which is already turning the Weather Channel into an endless loop of disaster porn. But millions of lives will depend on whether we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees, the probably unattainable goal of the Paris climate accords, or 2 degrees, the goal before scientists concluded it would be too disastrous, or our current trajectory of 3 degrees, which would be unthinkably more disastrous. The less carbon we emit, the better the outcomes will be.

And better is better than worse.

But the outcomes won’t be good, because emissions are cumulative. The carbon you emit tomorrow while driving to work or charging your phone might trap heat in the atmosphere for 1,000 years.

The world is making progress toward decarbonization — U.S. coal generation has been halved since 2010, and most new vehicles sold in Norway are now electric — but we still have 4 billion megawatts of fossil-fueled electricity and 1 billion fossil-fueled vehicles that will keep warming the planet until they’re replaced.

Food and agriculture also create one-third of our emissions — think of 1 billion methane-burping cattle, or 25 million acres of carbon-rich forest that get cleared every year to make room for them — and humanity still has to eat.

It’s a bummer, and it helps explain the allure of climate denialism that ignores the science, as well as climate doomism that proclaims nothing matters because we’re all inevitably screwed. Politically, it’s hard enough to sell policies when the benefits aren't visible right away. It’s almost impossible to sell policies when the counterfactual benefits will never be visible, unless you think future Arizonans sweltering in 125-degree heat will be grateful they aren’t even hotter.

This is surely why Biden sells his climate policies as jobs policies, even though they really aren’t.

It’s also why climate activists often argue that we’ve only got nine years to act to avoid an apocalypse, really another marketing ploy. Climate action isn’t a simple pass-fail test with a deadline. It’s a complicated long-haul struggle to limit the damage over time.

The truth is, the storm-crushed Bahamas and fire-obliterated Paradise, Calif., already had apocalypses. More apocalypses are coming. The goal should be to reduce the number of future apocalypses, and hopefully make them marginally less apocalyptic. That is a crucial goal, and the climate investments in the bipartisan infrastructure bill — along with the even more ambitious New New New Deal-style $3.5 trillion Democratic reconciliation bill — would be America’s most significant effort to help achieve it.

I won’t cover the fates of those bills for the Nightly, because I’m leaving POLITICO today to write a book about how to feed the world without frying the world. But my bet is that Biden won’t get everything he wants, and climate activists will complain about that with apocalyptic rhetoric, and increasingly powerful wildfires and hurricanes will make the whole effort look futile.

And here’s another bet: It won’t be futile. Anything that passes will be climate friendlier than the status quo.

It’s an unsatisfying non-conclusion, but climate is never going to be a tidy feel-good story. It’s a war story about the slow battle for progress, because better is better than worse, and somewhat worse is better than way worse.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author directly on Twitter at @MikeGrunwald.

— CDC releases data behind latest mask guidelines: The CDC has collected data that suggest fully vaccinated Americans who contract the Delta variant can spread Covid-19 as easily as unvaccinated people infected with the variant. The study helped convince the agency to revise its guidance on mask-wearing earlier this week, when it said vaccinated people should wear masks indoors in areas with high levels of Covid-19 transmission.

— Justice Department says Democrats are entitled to Trump’s tax returns: The Justice Department said today that former President Donald Trump’s tax returns may be released to congressional Democrats. Reversing a legal opinion by the Trump administration, the department said lawmakers are entitled to the information under a law allowing the heads of Congress’s tax committees to examine anyone’s private tax information.

— DeSantis seeks to block school mask mandates in Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis vowed to reject mask mandates for school-age students today, saying he will soon issue an order allowing parents or guardians to choose whether their child wears a mask in schools. The Republican governor, who threatened to call a special session on masks in schools, will “very soon” sign the emergency action, which is in response to the Broward County School District making masks mandatory for students and teachers in the face of the coronavirus Delta variant spreading throughout the state. Miami-Dade County Public Schools, the fourth-largest school district in the country, will make a decision on mask mandates in the coming days.

— Hunter Biden to critics of his art: ‘F--- ’em’: A New York City gallery is exhibiting nearly a dozen works from the president’s son at an estimated worth of between $75,000 to $500,000. The price tag for such an untested artist is highly uncommon, and has raised concerns of the possibility that someone would purchase the art as a way to curry favor with the first family. Asked by hosts of “Nota Bene,” a podcast dedicated to covering happenings in the art world, to respond to the people accusing him of using the art to improperly enrich himself and his family, Biden interjected: “Other than f--- ’em?”

— Intra-GOP spat breaks out on House floor: A heated confrontation between Reps. Madison Cawthorn and David McKinley over cosponsorship of a bill has escalated to a McKinley staffer filing an ethics complaint against Cawthorn, according to two sources familiar with the move. The spat began Thursday afternoon when the freshman Cawthorn (R-N.C.) went to find McKinley (R-W.Va.) in his office to discuss what Cawthorn said was his mistaken addition to a bill that he didn’t want his name attached to. But when Cawthorn found McKinley out of the office, the youngest member of Congress instead got into a back-and-forth with staff.

Nightly asked you: As the Delta variant leads to increased cases around the nation, are you changing your behavior this summer? Your select, lightly edited responses:

“Not really. I am fully vaccinated, as are my family members. I know my area could be better about vaccinations, but I stopped wearing a mask two weeks after I got vaccinated and until there’s another mandate, I don’t really feel like I need to stay home or wear a mask.” — Miranda Lape, grants manager, Fergus Falls, Minn.

“Absolutely. I’m wearing a mask outside in populated areas. I’ve traveled to see family but double masked on the plane and am masking around them, even though we're all inoculated. Tending to go back to eating outside in restaurants. We had about six weeks of relaxed behavior, an ease of well-being. That has changed now.” — Billie Parker, writer/producer, Santa Fe, N.M.

“First, I am fully vaccinated. I spend summers between the state with the highest rate of vaccination and one of the lowest rates of infection (Vermont) and another New England state with high vaccination rate (Massachusetts). Yet, I’m masking-up now in grocery stores and opting for outdoor dining.” — Patricia Palmer, retired, Boston

“Yes. My husband and I are missing my own brother’s wedding reception, because the bride has unvaccinated adult family members and the event is entirely indoors. We have a one year old at home and can’t take any chances. We’ll drive two hours and show up for the brief ceremony, but then leave immediately after and drive two hours home. It’s a sad but necessary choice for us.” — Danielle Krause, stay-at-home mom, Kinnelon, N.J.

“Yes, I will still see seven Phish shows this summer, but I will mask up in lines and crowded areas, and feel great about having tickets for the lawn and stands.” — Vaughn Brandt, behavioral health policy specialist, Madison, Wis.

“Yes and no. I took a 5,000 mile solo road trip — fishing, golfing and some camping. I was good until I returned home to Palm Desert and just found out I am an asymptomatic carrier — must’ve been exposed after I got back.” — Bruce Stava, financial services, Palm Desert, Calif.

We’ll feature more of your answers in Monday’s edition.

LUX SHOVE THE IRISH — Move over, Dublin. It’s Luxembourg that’s kicking off Europe’s era of big-ticket privacy enforcement.

More than three years since the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation came online, the hefty fines it promised are finally materializing. In financial filings out Friday, tech giant Amazon said the Grand Duchy had fined it a record €746 million after finding that the way the e-commerce giant handles people’s personal information runs afoul of Europe’s strict privacy code.

The figure is the highest ever levied under the code, way ahead of France’s €50 million penalty for Google, the second-highest, and sees Luxembourg emerge as Europe’s unlikely new privacy sheriff.

The tiny, tax-light country has long been accused of being soft on the corporations that make it their home. But the record sum for a U.S. heavyweight has thrust Luxembourg to the front line of Europe’s war on Big Tech. In doing so, it asks tough questions of Ireland, which regulates the lion’s share of Silicon Valley companies. So far, Dublin has mustered just a single fine against their ranks: a €450,000 penalty for Twitter.

BRB, WE NEED A NAP AFTER THIS WEEK — Matt Wuerker mined the internet to find political satire and cartoons for his latest Weekend Wrap, including coverage of the Jan. 6 hearing, the new mask guidelines from the CDC and the Tokyo Olympic games.