Presented by

Welcome to POLITICO’s 2021 Transition Playbook, your guide to one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history.

The afternoon the networks declared JOE BIDEN the victor in November, we published a story about the “contenders” to be in his Cabinet. It was speculative, but the product of dozens of calls from people around the newsroom.

But Biden ultimately upended people’s expectations, including our own.

Of the 18 Cabinet posts we included, we didn’t even mention the ultimate nominee for 15 of them. Our only consolation is that The New York Times didn’t fare any better, reporting just three of 17 senior administration roles correctly in their initial piece. The Washington lobbying firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck beat us both, mentioning the eventual pick for eight of 28 senior roles in an October memo.

One senior transition source dryly noted that the lobbying firm’s report “included such deep insights as the fact that Ron Klain and Steve Ricchetti were in line for White House roles.”

That was only the start. The last two months have been full of “under serious consideration” boomlets for candidates that had little to no chance, Biden team members say. “You have the same small handful of eager sources moving names around, oftentimes sitting far away from the action,” said someone close to the transition.

That said, the transition threw up a lot of chaff, too, floating names to gauge the reaction of key constituencies or give certain candidates their due. And reporters, including POLITICO’s, were some of the first to report the correct choices as Biden got closer to making a decision.

But it became an inside joke on the Biden team how former Chicago Mayor RAHM EMANUEL appeared to be in the running for everything. Rumors that Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) could become secretary of State and that Atlanta Mayor KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS had been offered the job of U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas are two news cycles that still flabbergast them. Biden hadn’t even picked his Commerce secretary yet, let alone his Bahamas ambassador, they say.

Some candidates cleverly gamed out how to get their names in the mix as a way to enhance their profiles. The transition played along with others, declining to knock down some names either as a favor or so as not to embarrass them with a public pushback.

Beyond self-flagellation and accountability, we wanted to look back at our original story because it’s worth considering how Biden surprised us the past two months, a phenomenon that could carry over into the administration.

DAVID LEITER, a former Clinton administration official whose firm, Plurus Strategies, briefed clients on potential nominees, said he was as shocked by some of Biden’s choices as we were. “As a result of my Cabinet picks, no one’s asking me for my Powerball number,” he said.

The biggest surprise, he said, was Biden’s choice of LLOYD AUSTIN as Defense secretary, a post much of Washington assumed would go to MICHÈLE FLOURNOY.

In retrospect, the lobbyists, consultants and reporters who tried to report out the contenders for Biden’s Cabinet posts made three mistakes.

While it was clear Biden wanted steady hands, we underestimated his draw to éminences grises like MERRICK GARLAND, JANET YELLEN and TOM VILSACK, all of whom beat out less experienced candidates (with the exception of SALLY YATES, who was deputy attorney general in the Obama administration).

But Washington experience wasn’t determinative. Biden also plucked little-known state officials such as MICHAEL REGAN and MIGUEL CARDONA, each of whom triumphed over candidates with higher profiles.

One other surprise: Unlike his four immediate predecessors, Biden chose no current or former senators for his initial Cabinet other than Vice President-elect KAMALA HARRIS, despite his reputation as a creature of the Senate. He passed over Sens. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) and ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and former Sens. DOUG JONES (D-Ala.) and TOM UDALL (D-N.M.), among others. (Former Sen. JOHN KERRY, Biden’s climate envoy, isn’t considered part of his Cabinet.)

And despite all of Biden’s pledges to work with Republicans, he also did not reach across the aisle to fill any roles in his Cabinet, something many of his modern-day predecessors have done. Trump was the first in years to break with that tradition. So far, Biden hasn’t brought it back.

Are you in touch with Biden’s transition team? Do you work in an agency preparing (or not preparing) for the transfer of power? Are you SUSAN RICE? We want to hear from you — and we’ll keep you anonymous: [email protected]. You can also reach Alex, Theo, Megan, Alice, Tyler and Daniel individually if you prefer. We’re on Signal, Susan! Theo: 917-370-1996. … Daniel: 413-854-8628

Did someone forward this to you? Subscribe here!

At the Lincoln Memorial, where he delivered a speech on the pandemic. He’s expected to stay at Blair House tonight before Wednesday’s inauguration.

With Biden at the Lincoln Memorial.

With the Center for Presidential Transition

In 1901, the House of Representatives was finally given a formal role in planning presidential inaugurations. It was the culmination of a campaign by House members that began in 1885. What prompted the House to seek this role? (Hint: There are two answers).

a) House members objected to the ways in which the Senate controlled the budget for inauguration events.
b) The House felt slighted because they historically were seated at the back of the inauguration platform.
c) Senate members received more tickets than House members.
d) House members wanted to introduce new ceremonies into the Inauguration Day schedule but had no way to bring up their ideas.

(Read to the end for the answer)

FTC CHAIR TO RESIGN — Federal Trade Commission Chair JOE SIMONS, who has held the position since May 2018, said he will leave the agency Jan. 29, leaving the role for Biden to fill, LEAH NYLEN reports. Simons has guided the FTC through some of its biggest consumer protection and antitrust cases.

The remaining articles and infographics in this section are exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Pro is a smart, personalized policy intelligence platform from POLITICO. If you are interested in learning more about how POLITICO Pro can support your team through the 2020 transition and beyond, visit this webpage.

EXCLUSIVE: THE TRANSITION CONTINUES — Biden will become president tomorrow but that doesn’t mean the transition is over. Transition Playbook has learned that a number of senior aides will stay on the transition team for up to 60 days, including ANDREW BATES, KATHY CHUNG, TARA McGUINNESS, RACHEL COTTON, CECILIA MUÑOZ, AWENATE COBBINA, PAT MOORE, STEPHANIE VALENCIA, and THEO LeCOMPTE.

One Biden aide told us that Bates, a spokesperson during the campaign, is expected to join the White House in a senior communications and press role after his work on the transition is complete. Don’t screw up now, Andrew!

The holdovers will continue to prep nominees for confirmations and expect to wind down at the 60 day mark. It is not unusual for a transition to continue a bit after the inauguration, but Biden is facing more delays than usual.

PSA: The Biden transition isn’t over and neither is Transition Playbook. Our plan is to keep going through the first 100 Days of the Biden administration. Tell us what you like, what you hate, and what you think we could do better at [email protected].

HISTORIC NOMINATION: Biden today nominated Pennsylvania Health Secretary RACHEL LEVINE as the Department of Health and Human Services’ assistant secretary of health, making her the first openly transgender federal official to be up for Senate confirmation.

FIRED BY TRUMP, REHIRED BY BIDEN: Biden is planning to bring back a top Pentagon official leading the fight against the Islamic State who was fired by the Trump administration late last year, LARA SELIGMAN reports.

CHRISTOPHER MAIER, who served as the Pentagon's Defeat ISIS Task Force before his firing, will return to the Defense Department after the inauguration as the acting civilian overseeing special operations forces, according to the people.

CONFIRMATION HEARINGS COMMENCE — Senate Republicans’ posture at back-to-back Cabinet confirmation hearings today suggests Biden has at least a chance of success in his bid to work closely with Senate Republicans to push through his agenda, MARIANNE LeVINE and ANDREW DESIDERIO write. Top Republicans have signaled their interest in quickly confirming his intelligence chief, Treasury secretary and Homeland Security secretary.

But Tuesday’s confirmation hearings also showed Biden could soon run into the scorched-earth opposition that Democrats say characterized the Obama years. Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) declared that he would object to swift consideration of Biden’s nominee to lead the Department of Homeland Security, ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, all but ensuring Biden won’t have some of his top national security advisers confirmed on Inauguration Day as Trump and his predecessors did.

ON THE CALENDAR: The House will vote Thursday on a waiver to allow Austin to serve as Biden’s Defense secretary, CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. House Democrats are moving to fast-track Austin, who testified Tuesday afternoon at a Senate confirmation hearing, by scrapping an open hearing and committee votes on the waiver.

GOP v. BIDEN ON TECH: It’s not every day a GOP member of Congress approvingly shares an article from the liberal American Prospect and attacks a potential Cabinet pick for private sector work.

Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who is expected to be the ranking GOP member on the House subcommittee on antitrust, took aim at RENATA HESSE, a potential Biden Justice Department pick, over her ties to Google and Amazon. “This is very concerning for those of us who want to hold Big Tech accountable,” he tweeted. Regardless of whether Biden picks Hesse, it’s the latest instance of some GOP members trying to outflank Democrats on tech.

EARLY INFLUENCES: NAHAL TOOSI profiles SAMUEL PISAR, a man who survived the Holocaust, received doctorates in law from Harvard and the Sorbonne, advised French and American presidents, served as a lawyer for Hollywood stars, corporate bigwigs, and UNESCO, and became an important influence on his stepson: Secretary of State-designate TONY BLINKEN.

MORE DISCLOSURES — Transportation Secretary-designate PETE BUTTIGIEG, Energy Secretary-designate JENNIFER GRANHOLM, Veterans Affairs Secretary-designate DENIS McDONOUGH and LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, Biden’s choice for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, have all filed their financial disclosures.

Among the revelations: Granholm brought in more than $2 million over the past two years working for American Bridge Foundation; as a Media Matters for America adviser; as a CNN contributor; through her firm, Granholm Mulhern Associates; serving on the defense contractor Marinette Marine’s board of directors; and from various speaking and consulting fees.

Thomas-Greenfield advised clients including Amazon, Hilton, Microsoft, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the engineering firm Black & Veatch and an Egyptian Caterpillar dealer as head of Albright Stonebridge Group’s Africa practice. McDonough advised Apple, Mastercard, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Deutsche Telekom and GlaxoSmithKline.

And Buttigieg got an advance of more than $300,000 for his book “Trust.” He was also paid $3,750 to narrate the audiobook. And he earned between $100,001 and $1 million in royalties from his book “Shortest Way Home” over the past two years, plus more than $53,000 selling the British rights to “Shortest Way Home” — has Mayor Pete-mania reached London? — and more than $2,000 selling the Korean rights.

WHERE BIDEN’S PROPOSALS WILL GO TO DIE — Soon-to-be-Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and soon-to-be-Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL have yet to strike an agreement on how to run an evenly split Senate, BURGESS EVERETT reports. And McConnell is driving a hard bargain.

In a letter to colleagues, McConnell indicated he wants a commitment from Schumer to preserve the legislative filibuster as part of their agreement governing the rules of the 50-50 Senate.

POTENTIAL ETHICS HEADACHES: What will become of the network of nonprofits and academic centers Biden started after he left office once he’s president? Two of them — the Biden Foundation and the Biden Cancer Initiative — shut down in 2019 after Biden launched his campaign, but others are still raising money, alarming some ethics experts.

The groups served as a sort of administration-in-waiting for Biden. At least 28 people working on the transition or going into the Biden administration — including much of the incoming White House senior staff — have ties to one of the groups Biden set up after leaving office or to the Beau Biden Foundation for the Protection of Children.

THE BIDEN BUMP: Big majorities in Germany, France and the U.K have confidence in Biden, a sharp jump almost matching the boost the U.S. got when BARACK OBAMA replaced George W. Bush in the White House. RYAN HEATH highlights two surprising numbers:

— Both Republicans (62 percent) and Democrats (83 percent) are now optimistic about transatlantic relations.

— Biden’s support comes evenly among Europe’s left, center and right. His support is predictably lowest among far-right parties but, even so, Biden still wins the confidence of 51 percent of voters with Germany’s nationalistic Alternative for Deutschland party.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES — A source familiar with Biden’s inauguration address says to expect it to be between 20 and 30 minutes. That’s longer than Trump’s (just under 17 minutes) and Obama’s first (about 18 and a half minutes). But still shorter than WILLIAM HENRY HARRISON’s nearly two hour inaugural address in 1841.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES (IF YOU’RE RICH): Major donors to Biden’s inaugural committee are invited to a “preferred viewing” of the inauguration tomorrow with West Wing star BRADLEY WHITFORD on Zoom, according to an invitation shared with Transition Playbook. One donor was not enthusiastic. “Why would I watch this on Zoom when I can just watch it on TV?,” they said.

TRUMP’s ‘DEEP STATE’: A higher-than-usual number of Trump administration political appointees have slid from appointed positions into powerful career civil service roles, which come with job protections that will make it difficult for Biden to fire them.

ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN and MEGAN CASSELLA detail some of the potentially problematic cases of “burrowing” and what the Biden administration plans to do about it.

DEEP DIVE — SAM STEIN and DANIEL LIPPMAN talk to Obama and Trump aides about how Trump’s 2017 inauguration previewed some of the themes of his term.

Jeff Zients has the hardest job in the incoming Biden administration (ABC News)

Biden to expand expand lobbying prohibitions in new ethics rules (The Washington Post)

Longtime career civil servant at Justice Department to serve as acting attorney general (The New York Times)

When a customer suggested that AVRIL HAINES should host erotic literature readings at Adrian’s Book Cafe, the Baltimore bookstore she co-founded in her 20s, she was worried about who might show up.

"We thought it would be a bunch of dirty old men. And a lot of our friends gave us a hard time. They said, 'You just want a mass orgy in your bookstore,'" Haines, Biden’s pick for director of national intelligence, told The Baltimore Sun in 1995.

But Haines pushed forward. The store held its first reading with red candles lit and everything.

The crowd that showed up was not a bunch of dirty old men, though. Haines herself read from ANNE RICE’s “The Claiming of Sleeping Beauty,” part of a trilogy re-released in 2012 during the “Fifty Shades of Grey” craze.

According to the Sun, Haines’ reading included: “‘I’m your prince,’ he said, ‘and that is how you will address me, and that is why you will obey me.”’

Um, is it hot in here?

B. & C.

In the 1800’s, House members were frequently relegated to the back of the inauguration platform. Plus, senators received five tickets for the inaugural platform while representatives were only given two.

Feeling slighted, House members began petitioning the Senate in 1885. In 1901, the House was finally included in the planning process, with the creation of the Joint Inaugural Committee.