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Another month, another set of uncomfortable inflation figures likely headed our way this morning.

The Labor Department is set to release consumer price data for October at 8:30 a.m., and economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the CPI rose 0.6 percent last month, up from 0.4 percent in September. The figures imply a roughly 5.8 percent rise over the past year, up from 5.4 percent last month.

From High Frequency Economics chief U.S. economist Rubeela Farooqi: “Monthly changes in the components that were impacted by the reopening — like air travel, used vehicles, other lodging and car and truck rentals — have moderated and in fact are now declining. But 12-month changes, for used vehicles in particular, are still elevated and will continue to contribute to year-over-year changes in the core and headline indexes.”

Higher food and energy prices, further normalization in rents and ongoing supply chain disruptions will also continue to put upward pressure on inflation, Farooqi says.

—Fed officials raising inflation worries: What’s changed since the last time we got consumer price data? Central bank officials, while still saying price pressures will eventually ease, have sounded more worried about the risk of persistently higher inflation.

“We see shortages and bottlenecks persisting into next year, well into next year,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting press conference last week. “We see higher inflation persisting, and we have to be in position to address that risk should it become really a threat to, should it create a threat of more persistent, longer-term inflation, and that's what we think our policy is doing now.”

Other central bank officials, including Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, have sounded a similar note in recent days, suggesting the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance if price pressures don’t cool as they expect.

Key questions for the Fed, which Powell didn’t answer last week: Under what conditions would officials speed up the pace at which they are tapering asset purchases? And when will they know it’s time?

—Supply chain action: Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is set to visit the Port of Baltimore today, and the White House on Tuesday outlined a number of additional steps it is taking to ease congestion and strengthen supply chains before the trip, our colleague Doug Palmer reports.

“Starting immediately, the Transportation Department will allow port authorities to redirect savings from other projects toward tackling supply chain challenges. That will allow the Georgia Ports Authority to ease congestion at the Port of Savannah by reallocating more than $8 million to convert existing inland facilities into five pop-up container yards.”

Also on tap: Launching programs to modernize port and marine highways within the next 45 days, identifying Army Corps of engineering projects at coastal ports and waterways within the next 60 days, and prioritizing key ports of entry for modernization and expansion within the next 90 days.

—Context is important: Another useful reminder as you ponder the implications of today’s numbers, from economist Claudia Sahm: Many Americans are paying more than before the pandemic, but the CPI doesn’t tell the whole story, especially in a year when fiscal support, such as the expanded Child Tax Credit and another round of stimulus checks, has bolstered household balance sheets.

“We should be cautious when using the spending of specific families to drive conversations about inflation,” Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute, said in her newsletter, Stay-At-Home Macro. “No one likes to pay more for something at the store, but if you have more income too, it’s not a problem that’s getting worse.”

IT’S WEDNESDAY — Is it really Hump Day if you don’t have to work tomorrow? Either way, your devoted MM crew will be here.

As always, please send us your tips, calendar items, new hires, book club recommendations, Netflix guilty pleasures, favorite TikToks … are you still reading? Email: [email protected], [email protected], or DM on Twitter @katedavidson.

Labor Department releases October consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. … Foreign Policy and Square Inc. hold a discussion on “Crypto’s Impact on Global Finance” at 11 a.m. … Treasury releases its monthly federal budget statement at 2 p.m. …

OMAROVA HEARING SET FOR NEXT WEEK — The Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing on Nov. 18 to consider the nomination of Saule Omarova to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a person familiar tells MM.

—MM sidebar: It’s not uncommon for a presidential nominee to face intense criticism from the opposing party. But nominees almost always stay mum during the confirmation process, letting the White House or other supporters come to their defense. Omarova has been doing a slew of press in recent days to push back against her detractors. For example: In one of her most recent interviews, she told WSJ’s Andrew Ackerman she is misunderstood.

SCHUMER SCORES BILLIONS FOR NY PUBLIC HOUSING — From our Katy O’Donnell: “Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is on track to nab billions of dollars for New York public housing repairs in President Joe Biden's social infrastructure and climate package — a victory that's triggering criticism from left-leaning housing experts and GOP lawmakers alike.

“The latest version of the $1.75 trillion plan includes $65 billion to shore up government-built apartments across the country, accounting for 43 percent of the $150 billion housing portion of the bill. Democratic aides expect much of it will go to the New York City Housing Authority and its estimated $40 billion repair backlog.”

WAITING FOR SWAGEL — Democrats won’t have a complete cost estimate for Biden’s social spending bill by next week, the Congressional Budget Office signaled Tuesday. From our Caitlin Emma: “Director Phillip Swagel said in a statement that the independent agency ‘will provide advance notice’ before unveiling a total cost for the package. ‘The analysis of the bill’s many provisions is complicated,’ he said, ‘and CBO will provide a cost estimate for the entire bill as soon as practicable.’”

—Meanwhile, it’s another scorekeeper that’s giving the White House fits: The Penn-Wharton Budget Model. “That’s because while there are many economic analyses of the bill out there, the PWBM has proven influential with one particularly important audience: Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), who takes its findings seriously, according to people familiar with the matter,” our colleagues Alex Thompson, Tina Sfondeles and your MM host write in West Wing Playbook.

—Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated Tuesday that the plan would increase U.S. productivity and the size of the labor force, without increasing the national debt, Reuters’ David Lawder reports.

MAKING A LIST, CHECKING IT TWICE — Congress has a year-end to-do list “more daunting than a Black Friday sales rush,” our colleagues Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine write. In case you haven’t been keeping track, lawmakers need to fund the government past Dec. 3, pass a massive defense policy bill, finish out a $1.75 trillion party-line social spending bill and raise the debt ceiling to avoid a U.S. credit default.

EUROPEAN BANKS’ PAYMENT INITIATIVE SECURES POLITICAL BACKING — From our colleague Bjarke Smith-Meyer in Brussels: “France, Germany and five other countries Tuesday backed plans from EU banks to set up a European payment giant to rival the likes of Mastercard and Visa. Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland joined the EU’s two biggest economies to buttress the so-called European Payments Initiative, outlined in a position paper obtained by POLITICO.”

POLITICO’S FIRST SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT — On the heels of the U.N. Climate Change Conference, POLITICO will convene its inaugural sustainability summit to explore what it will take to go from making pledges to taking action. Join us virtually on Tuesday, Nov. 16, for newsmaker interviews and panels on the policy, political and industry changes needed to push climate action forward. You can register here to watch live: https://politicossustainabilitysummit.splashthat.com/Newsletters

CRENSHAW ON DEFI — Democratic SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw in an article published on Tuesday in The International Journal of Blockchain Law said decentralized finance projects need to address two major issues: a lack of transparency and the possibility that users could be masking their identities. Crenshaw warned that failure to address those problems could leave investors vulnerable: “In conceiving a new financial system, I believe developers have an obligation to optimize for more than profitability, speed of deployment, and innovation,” she wrote.

FED WATCH — Add another member to the Brainard camp: Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate and former Clinton White House economist, who says Brainard “has demonstrated her competence and gained the respect of markets – without compromising her values.”

“Biden can have his cake and eat it: a Fed chair who maintains continuity and won’t roil markets, but shares his economic and social agenda,” he writes in Project Syndicate.

WHAT WE’RE LISTENING TO —

—Our colleague Megan Cassella on POLITICO Dispatch, trying to make sense of this weird economy, from the strong jobs report and labor shortage, to rising inflation and supply chain disruptions.

—And from our Victoria Guida, a new podcast on “how supply chains stole Christmas,” with Fordham University supply chain expert Matthew Hockenberry.

Marisol Garibay is joining Invariant as a communications strategist, the firm announced this morning. Garibay worked most recently as vice president of communications at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions, or NAFCU. Prior to that, she served in communications roles at the CFPB, OMB and Treasury Department during the Trump administration and was communications director at the House Financial Services Committee.

Allison Preiss has joined the CFPB as a senior adviser for communications, she said on Twitter Tuesday. Preiss is taking a leave of absence “for the next few months” from the Center for American Progress, where she serves as vice president of communications.

POWELL HIGHLIGHTS FED’S COMMITMENT TO ‘INCLUSIVE’ RECOVERY — AP’s Christopher Rugaber: “Inequality can prevent the U.S. economy from reaching its potential, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, and he underscored the Fed’s commitment to reducing unemployment as broadly as possible, including among disadvantaged groups.”

TIM COOK HAS INVESTED IN CRYPTOCURRENCY, BUT APPLE HAS NO PLANS TO DO THE SAME — NYT’s Michael J. de la Merced: “While Apple might not offer users a way to pay with cryptocurrency anytime soon, its leader has invested in it personally. Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, said at the DealBook Online Summit on Tuesday that he has bought cryptocurrencies.”

PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY ASKS HOW LONG THE BOOM WILL LAST — Reuters’ Chibuike Oguh: “Private equity dealmakers are descending on Berlin for their annual get-together, with their industry thriving and many of them wondering how long the good times will last.”