THE BUZZ: California Republicans may be outnumbered and frequently out-spent, but don’t say they can’t cause a shakeup.

With all eyes on the three leading Democrats vying to succeed Sen. Dianne Feinstein, there’s been little attention given to how a GOP candidate would fare — and for understandable reasons. Republican voter registration has hovered around 25 percent for years and no statewide candidate has won in more than 15 years. In fact, they’re frequently pummeled by double-digit margins.

But take a look at the latest Berkeley IGS pol l and you’ll see Republican Eric Early leading the field of candidates, showing how a divided Democratic base could play in the GOP’s favor, at least in the primary.

“There’s one Republican, and the Democratic field is divided,” said Lanhee Chen, a Republican who has advised on national campaigns and was also a candidate for controller last year. “I think the likelihood that you get a Republican in the top two is pretty high.”

That means added stress for the Democrats who are already in a pressure-cooker of a race. Rep. Katie Porter was able to edge her way to the front of the Democratic field in Thursday’s poll. But the split between Porter and Rep. Adam Schiff is still close — 17 percent to 14 percent, respectively — with Rep. Barbara Lee trailing behind at 9 percent among likely voters.

Early’s 18 percent is, in large part, a benefit of no other notable Republican running in the race. And in fact, it strikes some party brethren as unimpressive, considering the lack of competition. “He should’ve gotten more,” said Matt Shupe, a Republican consultant who has worked on multiple statewide campaigns. Early has also lost multiple statewide campaigns, including attorney general in 2022, where he lost in the primary with just under 17 percent of the vote.

That consolidation benefit could be short-lived for Early if other Republicans enter the field (a likely scenario), especially if there’s a more moderate alternative. Then, the California GOP runs into a different problem: unity. Even with the best of statewide chances, the party has struggled at times to band together in the name of unseating Democrats. That was a common complaint after the failed recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom, where the state Republican Party declined to endorse anyone. Party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement, “we have many strong California Republicans currently in the race and closely considering it,” but it’ll be up to the delegates to pick an endorsee.

Even under a two-Republican scenario, Chen says he could still see a benefit for the GOP, including an outcome where Democrats are so divided that two Republicans end up on the November ballot.

“That’s a crazy thought,” he said. “But … it’s just a sheer numbers game at some point.”

BUENOS DÍAS, good Friday morning. California Democrats are descending upon Los Angeles this weekend for their spring reorganizing convention. There’s much to talk about as the party gears up for 2024, but don’t expect any endorsements — that’ll come this fall. Headliners include statewide officials, legislators and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi.

And a programming note for our readers: In recognition of Memorial Day, California Playbook will not publish on Monday. But fret not, we’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up at [email protected] and [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Do you need a weapon to go to your daughter or son’s AYSO soccer game? To Disneyland? To a ballgame? I would submit no.” Sen. Anthony Portantino speaking on his SB 2, which tightens the state’s concealed carry laws in compliance with the Supreme Court’s Bruen decision. The measure passed the Senate on Thursday in spite of heavy opposition testimony from Republicans.

WE’RE HIRING — POLITICO is embarking on an exciting expansion in the Golden State and looking for another journalist to join our growing team as a California Playbook author. More in the job description here.

THE FEINSTEIN FACTOR — All of this speculating about the Senate race could, of course, get upended if Sen. Dianne Feinstein leaves office before the end of her term. The new Berkeley IGS poll found more than two-thirds of registered voters agreed that the senator’s latest illness “underlines the fact that she is no longer fit to continue serving in the U.S. Senate.” The largest group (42 percent) said they think Feinstein should resign and give Gov. Gavin Newsom a chance to appoint a replacement. Unsurprisingly, that’s the favored option for Democrats and liberals, unlike Republicans who oppose giving Newsom the chance to name a second senator. If a vacancy does occur, however, we can rule out Oprah.

More on what this new polling means for Feinstein from our Washington colleague Matt Berg.

— “California lawmaker opens legal fund over Facebook feud,” by CalMatters’ Alexei Koseff: “Blakespear appears to be the only legislator with an active legal defense fund. The contributions include $12,000 from the Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters and $5,500 from the Pechanga Band of Indians, both of which lobby at the state Capitol.”

SUCCESSION, SACTOWN EDITION — Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg will not seek another term next year, he announced Thursday, opening up a round of political musical chairs that could affect races up and down the ballot.

Steinberg, who first broke the news to The Sacramento Bee, said he’s leaving city hall but not political life, floating the possibility of a run for attorney general, should Rob Bonta take the plunge and run for governor in 2026. Remember, Steinberg was on the short list for replacing former AG Xavier Becerra back in 2021. He’s also been vetted for a judicial appointment, as we reported in December.

Within less than an hour of the news, Sacramento Assemblymember Kevin McCarty launched his own campaign for mayor, saying he’s ready to “lean-in” and tackle the city’s problems with homelessness and housing affordability. He did, however, note to KCRA that voters’ frequent confusion between him and GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy (with an h) could continue to haunt him.

Another one to watch: former Sacramento City Councilmember Steve Hansen, who hinted about his own plans for the job on Thursday.

SUCCESSION, SCHIFF EDITION — Another Democrat has entered the race for Schiff’s district, CA-30. Jirair Ratevosian, who is openly gay and the son of Armenian immigrants, is hoping his resume working for the Biden State Department and Barbara Lee will sway voters his way in the Los Angeles district. He enters a quickly growing field that includes state Sen. Anthony Portantino, Assemblymember Laura Friedman and Boy Meets World star Ben Savage.

— “California hospitals seek a broad bailout, but they don’t all need it,” by California Healthline’s Samantha Young and Angela Hart: “Leading health care finance experts and former state officials are urging Newsom and lawmakers to resist the industry’s fear tactics, saying that, even though hospitals are still reeling from the covid-19 pandemic, many have plush financial reserves.”

— “New report says Cal State has $1.5 billion funding gap, suggests tuition hikes,” by CalMatters’ Mikhail Zinshteyn: “Many influential Democrats have gravitated toward a treatment-centric approach to the crisis focused on increasing the availability of drugs like Narcan to treat overdoses.”

— “California lawmaker who’s an addiction doctor has a dire warning on ‘tranq’,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sophia Bollag: “Many influential Democrats have gravitated toward a treatment-centric approach to the crisis focused on increasing the availability of drugs like Narcan to treat overdoses.”

— “Sen. Alex Padilla pushes to grant 5 million undocumented workers ‘long overdue’ citizenship,” by The Sacramento Bee’s Mathew Miranda: “For Padilla and advocates, this current bill is an effort to honor the sacrifices workers made during the pandemic and recognize their importance even when not in a public health emergency. Padilla, a son of Mexican immigrants, has committed himself to immigration reform since entering the Senate.”

— “Chronic financial woes for cannabis dispensaries have led this Bay Area city to consider a tax holiday,” by East Bay Times’ Katie Lauer.

— “He faked an investigation. Then the ‘detective’ killed her family and abducted her niece,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Summer Lin and Erin B. Logan.

Mia Shaw … Leslie Smith

(Was Thursday): Irwin Winkler

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