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It’s now clear how the United States and its European allies will deal with the fallout from the Wagner Group rebellion: Keep out of the fray publicly — but quietly encourage Ukraine to strike Russian positions harder while it’s down.

In public, American and European leaders stress that they are preparing for any outcome, as the long term impact of the mercenary group’s uprising remains unclear. “It’s still too early to reach a definitive conclusion about where this is going,” President JOE BIDEN said Monday afternoon from the White House. “The overall outcome of this remains to be seen.”

For the moment, European officials see no increased threat to the continent, even as they watch for signs that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s two-decade hold on power might be slipping.

Western allies attribute the relative calm to the way they managed Wagner chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’s 24-hour tantrum.

During the fighting, senior Biden administration figures and their European counterparts agreed on calls that they should remain “silent” and “neutral” about the mutiny, three U.S. and European officials told Alex, LILI BAYER, SUZANNE LYNCH and CRISTINA GALLARDO.

In Monday’s meeting of top EU diplomats in Luxembourg, officials from multiple countries put on a little-to-see-here attitude. No one wanted to give the Kremlin an opening to claim Washington and its friends were behind the Wagner Group’s targeting of senior Russian military officials.

“We made clear that we were not involved. We had nothing to do with it,” Biden said from the White House, relaying the transatlantic message. However, Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV said his regime would still look into the potential involvement of Western spies in the rebellion.

The broader question is how, or even if, the unprecedented moment could reverse Ukraine’s fortunes as its counteroffensive stalls.

The U.S. and some European nations have urged Ukraine for weeks to move faster and harder on the front lines. The criticism is that Kyiv has acted too cautiously, waiting for perfect weather conditions and other factors to align before striking Russia’s dug-in fortifications.

Now, with Moscow’s political and military weaknesses laid bare, there’s a “window” for Ukraine to push through the first defensive positions, a U.S. official said. Others in the U.S. and Europe assess that Russian troops might lay down their arms if Ukraine gets the upper hand while command and control problems from the Kremlin persist.

Read the entire article.

PUTIN’S MESSAGE TO WAGNER: Putin demanded that Wagner Group forces either join Russia’s conventional military, return to their families, or go to Belarus alongside Prigozhin.

In a Monday afternoon speech, which fell far short of the Kremlin’s previews that it would decide Russia’s fate, Putin said the mercenary outfit was “betraying the country,” confirming that Russian pilots died during the rebellion.

The address showed a leader straining to put a lid on a major crisis, but failing to address major questions like: will his military leadership, which has failed in Ukraine and against Wagner mercenaries, remain in power?

WHAT’S STOPPING UKRAINE: Among the factors keeping Ukraine’s counteroffensive moving at a snail’s pace: sprawling minefields, a senior U.S. military official told the New York Times’ ANDREW KRAMER and ERIC SCHMITT. Russian troops have become better at replenishing fields cleared by Western-supplied equipment, the official said. And in some areas along the frontlines, Ukrainian forces are pausing to reassess what’s working and what’s not.

NICE TRY, CHINA: Chinese officials attempted to suss out where Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN stands in the upcoming Taiwan presidential election, warning about the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party candidate, the Wall Street Journal’s LINGLING WEI, CHARLES HUTZLER and WILLIAM MAULDIN reported Sunday.

Vice President LAI CHING-TE is seen by Beijing as being a member of the “pro-independence” wing, more aggressive in asserting Taiwan’s self-rule than President TSAI ING-WEN. If he wins, Chinese officials told Blinken that relations between Beijing and Washington could become even more fraught, people briefed on the matter told WSJ.

The officials referred to when former President GEORGE W. BUSH cautioned the Taiwanese government against stoking pro-independence sentiment ahead of an election. When asked where the U.S. stands on the election, Blinken repeated his stance that Washington will be impartial.

MOSCOW SUSPECTED IN BULGARIAN BLAST: Bulgaria’s Economy Minister BOGDAN BOGDANOV today suggested Russia could have been responsible for an explosion in the early hours of Sunday at an arms factory in the town of Karnobat, just as Bulgaria is ramping up military exports to Ukraine, reports our own NICOLAS CAMUT.

“We have taken absolutely all measures … to make sure that people are safe and that Bulgarian industry will not be affected by these types of raids,” Bogdanov said according to Bulgarian media. The word ‘raids’ in Bulgarian suggests foreign incursions, although Bogdanov did not mention Russia by name.

The blast comes amid an investigation by the Bulgarian authorities into a series of similar incidents in recent years at arms depots housing ammunition meant to be exported to Ukraine. The probe is looking into potential ties between the blasts and Russia.

Bulgaria has been exporting large quantities of ammunition to Ukraine since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion.

Meanwhile, Germany has offered to station 4,000 troops in Lithuania to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

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RUSSIAN TO COMMENT: After Prigozhin’s failed mutiny, several 2024 presidential candidates chimed in to give their thoughts on that matter and what Washington’s role should be:

WILL HURD: “We had intelligence reports that suggest that this was going forward, we should have been planning with our allies, we should have been planning with the Ukrainians on how to take advantage of this opportunity,” the former Texas Republican lawmaker, said on ABC News on Sunday. “We should be supporting the Ukrainians more. I think that even goes as far as doing a no-fly zone and helping them enforce that no-fly zone.”

NIKKI HALEY: “This is a time where we should be pushing Putin to get out of Ukraine and to make sure that we’re all standing with a strong force. This is an opportunity where … it requires action from all of the alliances and with [VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY,” Haley said on Fox News on Saturday. “Putin is distracted, he’s caught flat-footed. He’s got very few options, and this is a time where we need to be on our game and make sure that we handle this appropriately.”

VIVEK RAMASWAMY: “This is one more piece of evidence that Russia is likely a paper tiger. The idea that Russia has the capabilities to go for Poland or other parts of Western Europe looks increasingly farsighted. I think we need to keep our eye on the prize for the United States, which is deterring Chinese aggression,” Ramaswamy said on Fox News on Saturday.

TIKTOK HAWKS: Two Republican China hawks on the Hill are taking aim at some fine print in a new Commerce Department rule that lawmakers fear will allow Biden to let TikTok off the hook, our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity report.

In a letter sent to the Commerce Department on Friday, and made public Monday, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) don’t like a line in Commerce’s new Information and Communications Technology Supply Chain — or “ICTS” — rule, published June 16.

The rule directs Commerce to review ICTS transactions to determine if they pose national security risks and how those risks can “be mitigated using measures that can be verified by independent third parties.”

They worry that the term “mitigated” — along with some other seemingly innocuous changes — could open the door for Commerce to approve compromises with foreign firms like TikTok’s Project Texas, under which the company has proposed storing U.S. data on domestic servers.

The lawmakers urged Commerce to “abandon any course of action that stops short” of a full TikTok ban.

DANES TRAIN UKRAINE: Acting Danish Defense Minister TROELS LUND POULSEN on Monday announced the start of training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets, per AP.

Lund Poulsen said that the Scandinavian country, which is also a member of NATO “has taken the step of starting a training and further education effort for the Ukrainian pilots.”

“We will also consider whether we should make a concrete donation to Ukraine of the Danish F-16 fighters, and how many there should be,” he added.

Denmark has ordered 27 F-35A fighter jets which are set to replace the more than 40-year-old F-16s. The replacements will be operative by 2025, the minister said.

MAKING NEW FRIENDS: The Pentagon needs to be more open to nontraditional vendors, five defense technology companies and eight venture capital firms told Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in a letter sent today, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

The letter backs recommendations that are outlined in the Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption report that was released in April and penned by former Defense Secretary MARK ESPER and former Air Force Secretary DEBORAH LEE JAMES.

The group wants Congress to set up a bridge fund for technologies that are demonstrated during experimental exercises, giving a pathway for companies and their tech to enter the formal acquisition system.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SIGAR’S LESSONS LEARNED: A government watchdog that tracked U.S. involvement in the Afghanistan war issued an 18-page lessons learned memo in response to a May request by Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa). While the document mainly features previous critiques leveled by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, it serves as a good compilation of what impeded American success during the 20-year fight.

Here, for example, are the six lessons learned in response to Grassley’s query about the key challenges to reconstruction efforts in a warzone:

1. “Corruption is a key obstacle to success and in Afghanistan undermined the U.S. mission by enabling predatory behavior, exacerbating local conflict, and channeling support directly to the insurgency.”
2. “Lack of effective coordination — both within the U.S. government and across the international coalition—was a major obstacle to success and resulted in a disjointed patchwork of ineffective efforts, rather than a united and coherent approach.”
3. “Pervasive insecurity continuously undermined every effort to rebuild government and security institutions, and efforts to improve security often resulted in new or worse problems.”
4. “Poor U.S. personnel policies — both civilian and military — meant that U.S. efforts were rarely overseen by trained and qualified staff.”
5. “The U.S. needs to understand the host country’s social, economic and political systems to successfully tailor its reconstruction efforts.”
6. “U.S. government agencies rarely conducted sufficient monitoring and evaluation to understand the impact of their efforts.”

The Iowa lawmaker told us SIGAR’s response was “a refreshing and instructive example of government transparency” and said he’d use it as a reference when considering funding and oversight.
LISA CURTIS, a top NSC official for Afghanistan during the Trump administration and now at the Center for a New American Security think tank, argued SIGAR should look into the failed diplomacy between the U.S. and the Taliban.

“SIGAR should explore how the U.S.-Taliban talks were handled by the Trump administration,” she told NatSec Daily, including the release of thousands of Taliban prisoners. “The assessment should also probe the policy process on Afghanistan and the handling of talks with the Taliban during the first eight months of the Biden administration.”

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– HALT WEAPONS TO SERBIA AND KOSOVO: A bipartisan group of eight senators is urging the administration to halt all pending weapons sales to Serbia and Kosovo until they seriously engage with a diplomatic effort to stop recent violence.

The octet, featuring NATO Observer Group co-chairs Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), wants both Balkan nations to abide by the Ohrid Agreement and recent proposals by the European Union towards a legally binding normalization agreement.

“Without a firm commitment to take these steps, we urge you to postpone all pending sales of foreign military sales and any otherwise deepening of the bilateral security relationship with either country,” they wrote to Biden on Sunday. They also want the administration to draft a report confirming that Serbia and Kosovo aren’t threatening the safety of NATO peacekeepers in the regions.

“We are also prepared to review bilateral appropriations and annual authorizations to both countries as needed,” they added.

‘HE SPEAKS FOR ALL OF US’: SecState Blinken stood by Biden after the president referred to Chinese President XI JINPING as a dictator during a fundraising event last week, drawing backlash from Beijing.

“The president always speaks candidly, he speaks directly. He speaks clearly, and he speaks for all of us,” Blinken said during an interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

Blinken didn’t walk back the president’s comments, emphasizing that his trip to Beijing earlier this month was to bring some stability to the tense relationship between the two world powers.

“One of the things that I said to [my] Chinese counterparts during this trip was that we are going to continue to do things, and say things that you don’t like, just as you’re no doubt going to continue to do and say things that we don’t like,” he said.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: JOHN NOONAN has joined Polaris National Security as a senior adviser. He was last the national security adviser to Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.).

— LEONEL GARCIGA has been named the Army’s chief information officer and principal advisor to the secretary of the Army. Garciga was recently the Army intelligence community’s CIO.

— POLITICO Magazine: Putin suppressed a mutiny. But what’s next for him and Russia?

— ORI NIR, The New York Times: A dangerous shift is underway in the West Bank

— CHRISTIAN DAVIES, SONG JUNG-A and ELEANOR OLCOTT, The Financial Times: The South Korean ‘master’ of chips accused of sharing secrets with China

— International Institute for Strategic Studies, 7 a.m.: Semiconductor Policy Collaboration Among Like-Minded Countries

— Defense Department and the Office of the Secretary 8 a.m.: Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

— Veterans Affairs Department, 9 a.m.: Advisory Committee on Disability Compensation, Notice of Meeting

— Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Tech Race with China: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy

— American Enterprise Institute, 10:30 a.m.: Remarks and a Conversation with Amb. NIKKI HALEY on the Future of US-China Policy

— Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: Tripolar Instability: Nuclear Competition Among the United States, Russia, and China

— Washington Post Live, 2:30 p.m.: Former World Bank president ROBERT ZOELLICK on Ukraine’s economic recovery

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Promoting Semiconductor “Friendshoring”: The Role of Indo-Pacific Allies and Partners in Supply Chain Resilience

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always says she had nothing to do with the bad things that happen to us.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, about whom we will never be “silent” or “neutral.”