The outcome is key to both parties’ plans because it is not only highly competitive but unique: It’s the only one in New Jersey with split representation. The potentially record-breaking fundraising numbers underscore how important the 11th District is among more than a half-dozen closely watched races that could see a power shift next week.

Democrats hold a 25-15 majority in the Senate, where the 11th’s incumbent Democratic senator, Vin Gopal, is trying to hold his seat against Republican challenger Steve Dnistrian. The Assembly has Republican incumbents Kim Eulner and Marilyn Piperno being challenged by Democrats Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul. Democrats hold a 46-34 majority in the Assembly.

In previous election cycles, voters often tuned into local campaign issues, like affordability and property taxes. But this year the national issues are intensifying this race and other competitive ones around the state — and could be a determining factor in the balance of power in Trenton.

“This is not only one of the races that we are told is a top prospect of both parties,” Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics Director Micah Rasmussen said. “You can see it from the level of discourse.”

That discourse may feel familiar to anyone attuned to broader American politics today.

“Do you cook on a gas stove? Drive a gas-powered car?,” one pamphlet for Dnistrian said. “FACT: Vin Gopal’s Democratic Party is banning both in New Jersey.” A separate ad says Gopal’s “extreme agenda” includes “biological males playing sports and sharing locker rooms with girls.”

Democratic campaign ads call Dnistrian’s past work for offshore wind, first reported by POLITICO, his “dirty little secret” as he opposes the industry in this campaign. Another mailer says: “Criminalizing women seeking abortions. It’s happening in states across the country. How will it happen in New Jersey? By electing Steve Dnistrian.”

Both sides have stretched the truth. New Jersey Republicans falsely claim Gopal wants to ban gas stoves, tapping into anxiety that swept through Washington, D.C., earlier this year following GOP claims that President Joe Biden planned to end the era of the common home appliance.

Controversy over so-called parental rights bills pushed through the Florida Legislature erupted in New Jersey over the spring and summer after Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration sued to block similar school policies in a handful of conservative districts. Republicans have launched a broad attack against Democrats, including Gopal, arguing they are trying to keep parents in the dark about their child’s gender or sexual identity. Dnistrian called it “the defining issue of the campaign.”

Republicans have also linked sex education curriculum to Gopal as chair of the Senate Education Committee. They said one bill Gopal co-sponsors, NJ S2781 (20R), has led to shocking sex-ed curriculums circulating in public schools without parental consent.

But Gopal claims the bill, which was designed to “include instruction on diversity and inclusion” as part of the state’s learning standards, does not exclude parents from children’s curriculum.

“I would find it unacceptable for any school district to not tell parents what’s going on with their kids,” Gopal said. “This isn’t a real issue. It’s a political issue.”

Dnistrian said Gopal is “trying to run away from the curriculum issue in our schools.”

Beyond school issues, Gopal and other Democrats have tried to harness the state’s strong abortion protections as a selling point to women voters and label candidates like Dnistrian as extremists who would try to make New Jersey inhospitable to people seeking the procedure.

But the state’s Republican leader in the Senate has said the protections are settled in New Jersey and his party would not try to tighten them if the party gained power. And Dnistrian himself hasn’t articulated a position.

“My stance on abortion is I need to understand where my constituents stand,” Dnistrian told POLITICO in an interview.

The push for wind power by Democrats has perhaps been the most potent campaign issue for this district dominated by beach towns and high-priced oceanfront properties. Republicans have blamed windmill development for a spate of whale deaths, though there is no conclusive evidence of that, while Democrats have tried to sell wind power as a clean alternative that will benefit ratepayers in the long run.

But Gopal has put some distance between himself and wind power cheerleaders like Gov. Murphy, voting against tax breaks designed to help one of the state’s developers advance offshore wind.

“These are gut check, visceral level issues that people know where they stand on, and it becomes very easy to comprehend and very easy to mudsling against an opponent,” Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers, said. “It’s much easier to comprehend than talking about the complexities of tax codes.”

After several upset victories in the last legislative election, in 2021, Democrats focused heavily on pocketbook issues like taxes and affordability, most often the biggest concerns for voters. But Republicans went another direction, focusing on cultural issues and other policies as their counterparts nationally and other states have.

“Republicans in New Jersey, this cycle, have done a very good job of keeping Democrats on the defense,” said Rasmussen, who was also the former press secretary of Democratic former Gov. Jim McGreevey. “They are forcing them to defend their policies and their votes and their legislation that they’ve enacted over the last two years.”

Incumbent Gopal said this race is nothing like his first race six years ago. He said he “fought hard” against his previous opponent, Republican state Sen. Jennifer Beck, but the race was civil. Beck was one of the first people over with a gift when his daughter was born, Gopal said.

“We took hard shots at each other, we came at each other hard,” Gopal said. “We didn’t talk about sexualizing kids in school and all the other garbage that this guy is trying to push out there.” Gopal added he is happy his daughter is too young to understand the attacks.

The issues being fought between both parties are limited mostly to mailed pamphlets and TV ads because Dnistrian and Gopal have not hashed out their differences in front of voters in a debate, as some other candidates have.

That leaves voters making their choices off lawn signs and sound bites on Tuesday.

“We won’t know until next week whether it’s those classic New Jersey issues of affordability and property taxes that are going to win over the conversation,” Koning said. “Or if it’s going to be these culture wars issues like abortion and gender identity and parental notification.”