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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– Despite rampant online speculation that there are up to two large cracks on the deck of China’s third aircraft carrier, a new analysis of satellite imagery insists the ship is intact.

Tweets with images of the Fujian purportedly showed one or two dark splits that made takeoff and landings impossible until it was repaired. Some of those posts included gibes at China’s shipbuilding such as “Made in China.” There are even articles now citing the tweeted rumors, growing the audience that believes there are fissures rendering the vessel unable to perform its mission.

But a review to be posted this afternoon by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ ChinaPower Project debunks the cracks claims, straight up calling them “rampant misinformation.”

A review of commercially available satellite images from May 15 shows that the Fujian has no visible cracks or any other markings that would present a problem for the Chinese military. There’s also no evidence that sailors are involved in any repair work to fix the opening.

But the images circulating online do show long, dark streaks that certainly look like cracks from high above. So what are they? According to CSIS experts, it’s all just liquid.

“The streaks that overeager analysts mistook for cracks are, instead, liquid pooling and running in rivulets across the deck. Older imagery from September 8, 2022, and April 23, 2023, analyzed by ChinaPower shows that the liquid appears to originate on the port side of the vessel and run toward the starboard side,” write BRIAN HART, MATTHEW FUNAIOLE, and JOSEPH BERMUDEZ, JR. “This makes sense given that the vessel is tied up to the pier on the starboard side, which will sometimes cause a slight tilt with tidal swings. The fact that, in past imagery, the streaks appear in different places at different times adds further evidence that these are not cracks.”

The think tank, which like others receives donations from defense contractors, asserts that ridiculing China’s shipbuilding and maintenance capabilities because of misinformation is unwise: “Buying into these claims risks seriously underestimating China’s growing military power.”

Other reports suggest China could have five aircraft carriers by 2030. However, some experts are skeptical that Beijing will use its aircraft carriers as intended for at least a decade. Instead, they think the vessels are more for propaganda purposes at this point.

“Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China’s got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go,” TREVOR HOLLINGSBEE, a former British naval intelligence analyst, told Reuters in May.

HITTING ZELENSKYY’S HOMETOWN: At least 11 Ukrainians were killed in a Russian missile strike on an apartment building and a warehouse in Kryvyi Rih, a central city where President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY grew up, Reuters’ MAX HUNDER reports.

Another 28 people were injured in the attack today, which Zelenskyy denounced for allegedly targeting civilians. Ten of the 14 missiles launched toward Ukraine were shot down, the country’s military command said.

ARMING ABRAMS, AND MORE: The Biden administration is expected to send depleted-uranium rounds to Ukraine after internal debates about how to arm the Abrams tanks that will be delivered, the Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON and GORDON LUBOLD report.

It’s a win for the Pentagon, having urged the administration to green-light the rounds, which are effective against Russian tanks and used by the U.S. Army. During weeks of debate, some officials worried about the health and environmental risks associated with the ammunition, U.S. officials told WSJ.

The news comes the same day U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN unveiled a $325 million package for Ukraine, which includes more munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, anti-tank weapons, armored vehicles, artillery rounds and other equipment, ELI STOKOLS and Ari report.

The announcement came moments after Blinken previewed the tranche, speaking to press alongside NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG.

The NATO boss also spoke with President JOE BIDEN today to discuss joint action to defend Ukraine, ahead of next month’s NATO summit in Lithuania. Kyiv’s Western allies remain deeply divided on how to respond to Ukraine’s request for security guarantees against Russia, as well as its bid for NATO membership.

As support to Ukraine flows, the Pentagon is beefing up its training for more than 1,400 military officers who coordinate foreign military sales at embassies worldwide, Lubold also reports. It’s an attempt to provide allies with weapons quicker amid accusations from some countries that DOD is, well, slow with these things.

On the weapons front, things aren’t looking so good for Moscow, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports. During a meeting of pro-war bloggers today, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN warned that his armed forces lack the military hardware they need to win the war in Ukraine, while insisting Moscow is ramping up weapons production to fill the gap.

CIA REPORTEDLY WARNED KYIV ABOUT NORD STREAM: The CIA warned Ukraine not to destroy Nord Stream months before an attack on the gas pipelines, after receiving a tip from Dutch military intelligence, according to media reports.

The Netherlands’ military intelligence agency, MIVD, received information about an “imminent attack” on Nord Stream from an unnamed source in Ukraine last June, three months before a series of underwater explosions hit the pipes in September, according to a joint investigation by Dutch and German news outlets published today.

According to the plan received by MIVD, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY, was in charge of the operation against Nord Stream, which involved a small team of divers traveling on a sailing boat and was supposed to take place mid-June 2022.

The Dutch intelligence services then informed the U.S., which made contact with Ukraine via the CIA to warn them off, according to the reports.

The CIA didn’t immediately respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.

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CHRISTIE TOWN HALL: Former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE used a CNN town hall Monday night to attack Republican presidential frontrunner DONALD TRUMP, pitching himself as an experienced, level-headed political veteran and blasting the former president for his handling of classified documents.

Because Trump was repeatedly asked by the government to return the documents, which may include war plans and info about nuclear weapons, he is “voluntarily putting our country through this,” Christie said.

Christie also touched on his own foreign policy views, calling the war in Ukraine “a proxy war with China” since Beijing is purchasing Russian oil and selling drone tech to Iran. While U.S. involvement in the war isn’t desirable, “the alternative is for the Chinese to take over, the Russians, the Iranians and the North Koreans –– a bad foursome.”

TROOPS TO TAIWAN? TOUGH: Most Republican presidential candidates aren’t so sure they’d send U.S. troops to Taiwan if China invades the island nation, contrasting with the Biden administration’s current stance, the Daily Caller’s DIANA GLEBOVA reports.

When asked by the news outlet, NIKKI HALEY, DOUG BURGUM and TIM SCOTT emphasized deterrence efforts, such as equipping Taiwan with what it needs to fend off an invasion. VIVEK RAMASWAMY, LARRY ELDER, MIKE PENCE and ASA HUTCHINSON said they’d be open to deploying troops to defend Taiwan, but would not commit to doing so.

Frontrunners DONALD TRUMP and RON DeSANTIS declined to comment on the issue.

NOT SOLD ON 702: Senators expressed skepticism about the government’s controversial surveillance program during a hearing today, saying that much work is needed before Congress can reauthorize the measure, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports.

“I will only support the reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA if there are significant reforms,” said Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.). “And that means, first and foremost, addressing the warrantless surveillance of Americans in violation of the Fourth Amendment.”

Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) argued that lawmakers can’t trust the intelligence community to apply appropriate safeguards over the program on its own: “I have raised significant concerns in hearing, after hearing, after hearing about FISA and its shocking disregard for Americans’ constitutional rights and civil liberties.”

And year after year, Lee continued, he gets the same dismissive answer from the intelligence community: “These are not the droids you’re looking for.”

Earlier in the day, a trio of senior administration officials disclosed new details to reporters on how Section 702 has been used to mitigate three pressing national security challenges: fentanyl trafficking, foreign cyberattacks and Beijing’s persecution of dissidents, John also reports. But that’s unlikely to change any minds in Congress.

FRANCE FOILS RUSSIAN DISINFO CAMPAIGN: A French agency that spots foreign interference online uncovered a wide-ranging Russian disinformation campaign to undermine Western support to Ukraine, our own LAURA KAYALI and CLEA CAULCUTT report today.

According to the agency’s report, the campaign consisted of spreading pro-Russian content, impersonating news outlets and government websites, among other tactics, to push disinformation about the ineffectiveness of sanctions against Russia. It also promoted the Kremlin’s unfounded narrative alleging Russophobia in Western states, Nazi ideology among Ukrainian officials, and that welcoming in Ukrainian refugees leads to negative consequences for European countries.

U.S. TROOPS INJURED IN SYRIA: Twenty-two American service members were injured following a “helicopter mishap” in northeastern Syria, per a brief statement released by the U.S. Central Command on Monday. The service members are receiving treatment for injuries of “various degrees” and 10 have been evacuated to higher care facilities.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation, although no enemy fire was reported,” the statement reads.

About 900 U.S. personnel have been deployed to Syria as part of a mission to fight the remnants of the Islamic State. American troops in the region have come under escalating attacks in recent years.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– FIVE PRIORITIES: More than 50 Democrats signed a letter to House Armed Services Committee leadership outlining their five priorities for this year’s National Defense Authorization Act.

What the New Democrat Coalition’s National Security Task Force wants: continued support for Ukraine and territorial integrity, prioritizing climate resiliency and energy security, supporting service members and their families, investments in American innovation, and strengthening the defense-industrial base and supply chains.

The task force, chaired by Rep. MARILYN STRICKLAND (D-Wash.), hopes Reps. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) and ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) adhere to their wishes. It’s unclear they’ll get all of five, but it goes to show what a good chunk of Democrats think heading into NDAA discussions and markups. HASC gets to work on the annual defense policy bill this week, as our friends at Morning Defense note (for Pros!).

LUKASHENKO’S TRIGGER FINGER: Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO will soon have some of Russia’s nukes, and he apparently isn’t afraid to use them.

“God forbid I have to make a decision to use those weapons today, but there would be no hesitation if we face an aggression,” Lukashenko said, according to state media outlet BelTA.

Putin announced that the facility to house the weapons in Belarus will be ready days before the mid-July NATO summit in nearby Vilnius. The Kremlin head has been adamant, however, that Moscow will retain control of the weapons.

ENGAGE WITH CAUTION: A group of bipartisan U.S. lawmakers is calling for a U.S.-Africa trade summit to be moved from South Africa, claiming the country has “deepened its military relationship with Russia,” according to a letter addressed to U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, obtained by JOHN ELIGON from the New York Times.

“We are seriously concerned that hosting the 2023 AGOA Forum in South Africa would serve as an implicit endorsement of South Africa’s damaging support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” states the letter, which is signed by Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and JAMES RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the committee.

The lawmakers added that South Africa’s support for Russia calls into question whether the country should be able to receive trade benefits from the U.S., offered under the African Growth Opportunity Act. The letter is also signed by GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y) and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), both leaders on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

South Africa’s government, which has a long history with Moscow dating back to the former Soviet Union, officially declared its neutrality over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Western concerns grew louder after the U.S. Ambassador to South Africa REUBEN BRIGETY accused the country of arming Moscow, which South Africa denied.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: JACOB FREEDMAN started on Monday as senior adviser for strategic communications to Secretary of the Army CHRISTINE WORMUTH, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He was previously chief of staff to former Secretary of State MADELEINE ALBRIGHT and a vice president at Albright Stonebridge Group. He had worked at the Pentagon previously as chief speechwriter for CHUCK HAGEL and LEON PANETTA, and as a speechwriter for ROBERT GATES.

— IRVIN McCULLOUGH is joining the Senate Judiciary Committee’s human rights panel chaired by Sen. JON OSSOFF (D-Ga.). He’ll be leaving his post as a press officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

— BRENT WOOLFORK is now chief of staff for NEERA TANDEN, the new head of the Domestic Policy Council. He most recently was deputy assistant secretary for House affairs at DOD.

— RAFFI HOVANNISIAN, POLITICO: New Karabakh peace deal is condemned to fail

— ROBIN DICKEY, War On The Rocks: Why norms matter more than ever for space deterrence and defense

— BILL DREXEL and MICHAEL DEPP, Foreign Policy: Every country is on its own on AI

— Association of the U.S. Army, 7 a.m.: AUSA’s Hot Topics Army Cyber

— U.S.-ASEAN Business Council and the Center for Strategic & International Studies, 9 a.m.: U.S.-Indo-Pacific Conference 2023

— University of California at Berkeley, 9:15 a.m.: Cyber Civil Defense Summit 2023

— Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: Enhancing American Competitiveness Through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation

— Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: NATO membership and security guarantees: Getting Ukraine right at the Vilnius summit

— Defense One, 12 p.m.: Tech Summit

— U.S. Institute of Peace, 1:30 p.m.: A Conversation with the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Minister of Interior REBAR AHMED

— State Department, 2 p.m.: ACPD Public Meeting: The Use of Artificial Intelligence in Public Diplomacy

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who thinks our brains are cracked.

We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who is always fully put together.