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California, U.S. House, District 10


In California's 10th Congressional District, venture capitalist Josh Harder (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R) in the general election on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Denham, first elected in 2010, was one of seven California Republicans who represented a district won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, while Denham won his 2016 election by 3.4 percentage points. Prior to Denham's election, the district was represented by Democrat Ellen Tauscher for fourteen years.

Polls

California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Jeff Denham Josh HarderUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 21-25, 2018
The New York Times 45%47%8%+/-4.9501
Institute of Governmental Studies
September 16-23, 2018
None 45%50%5%+/-5.0726


California's 10th Congressional District election, Top-two primary election: Harder vs. Denham

Poll Jeff Denham Josh HarderSample Size
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
March 13-15, 2018
48%37%400


Campaign finance

The chart below details the campaign finance statements reported to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Josh Harder Democratic Party $8,441,529 $8,421,288 $20,241 As of December 31, 2018
Jeff Denham Republican Party $4,911,909 $4,932,044 $306,567 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016

Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 61.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 31.6% 30.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.1% 23.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.1% Republican Party John McCain 37% 24.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.4% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.4% 10%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 53.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 41.7% 11.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016

Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Kamala Harris 61.6% Democratic Party Loretta Sanchez 38.4% 23.2%
2012 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 62.5% Republican Party Elizabeth Emken 37.5% 25%
2010 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 52.2% Republican Party Carly Fiorina 42.2% 10%
2006 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 59.5% Republican Party Richard Mountjoy 35.1% 24.4%
2004 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 57.8% Republican Party Bill Jones 37.8% 20%
2000 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 55.9% Republican Party Tom Campbell 36.6% 19.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.

Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016

Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 60% Republican Party Neel Kashkari 40% 20%
2010 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 53.8% Republican Party Meg Whitman 40.9% 12.9%
2006 Republican Party Arnold Schwarzenegger 55.9% Democratic Party Phil Angelides 39.0% 16.9%
2002 Democratic Party Gray Davis 47.3% Republican Party Bill Simon 42.4% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016

Year Democrats Democrats (%) Republicans Republicans (%) Balance of power
2016 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2014 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2012 Democratic Party 38 71.7% Republican Party 15 28.3% D+23
2010 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2008 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2006 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2004 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2002 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2000 Democratic Party 32 61.5% Republican Party 20 38.5% D+12

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

California Party Control: 1992-2019
14 years of Democratic trifectasNo Republican trifectas

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly D D D S R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

Demographics

Demographic data for California

CaliforniaU.S.
Total population:38,993,940316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):155,7793,531,905
Gender
Female:50.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:61.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.9%12.6%
Asian:13.7%5.1%
Native American:0.7%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.4%0.2%
Two or more:4.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:31.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,818$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California.

As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).