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Indiana, U.S. Senate

Former state Rep. Mike Braun (R) defeated U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) and business consultant Lucy Brenton (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Indiana in the United States Senate.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Trump won Indiana by 19 points in the 2016 presidential election. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Indiana was Barack Obama in 2008. Donnelly was first elected in 2012, defeating State Auditor Richard Mourdock (R) by 5.7 percentage points. Prior to his win, Republicans had won every U.S. Senate election in the state since 2004. In the 2016 Senate race, U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R) defeated former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh (D) by 9.7 percentage points for the seat held by retiring incumbent Dan Coats (R).

Polls

U.S. Senate election in Indiana, Donnelly vs. Braun

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Donnelly Republican Party BraunUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
October 27-30, 2018
Fox News 45%38%17%+/-3.5722
Marist University
October 24-28, 2018
NBC News 45%42%13%+/-5.5496
Cygnal
October 26-27, 2018
N/A 46%49%5%+/-4.36505
YouGov
October 23-26, 2018
CBS News 43%46%11%+/-3.7975
Mason Strategies
October 15-20, 2018
IndyPolitics.org 43%47%10%+/-3.9600
American Viewpoint
October 14-17, 2018
Braun campaign 40%44%16%+/-3.0800
SurveyUSA
October 12-16, 2018
Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics 41%40%19%+/-4.61,400
Vox Populi (Republican vs. Democrat only, no undecided option)
October 13-15, 2018
N/A 44%38%0%+/-3.5783
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 29-October 2, 2018
Fox News 43%41%16%+/-3.5695
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics
September 12-19, 2018
N/A 46%43%11%+/-3.31,181
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018
Fox News 43%45%12%+/-3.5677
Marist University
August 26-29, 2018
NBC News 44%41%15%+/-5.0576
Trafalgar Group
July 31-August 7, 2018
N/A 51%39%11%+/-2.61,420
AVERAGES 44.15% 42.54% 12% +/-3.84 833.08

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mike Braun Republican Party $25,950,207 $25,878,622 $71,583 As of December 31, 2018
Joe Donnelly Democratic Party $14,585,918 $15,800,916 $173,873 As of December 31, 2018
Lucy Brenton Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Election history

2016

U.S. Senate, Indiana General Election, 2016

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Young 52.1% 1,423,991
Democratic Evan Bayh 42.4% 1,158,947
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 5.5% 149,481
N/A Write-in 0% 127
Total Votes 2,732,546
Source: Indiana Election Division

2012

U.S. Senate, Indiana General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Donnelly 50% 1,281,181
Republican Richard Mourdock 44.3% 1,133,621
Libertarian Andy Horning 5.7% 145,282
Independent James Johnson, Jr. 0% 15
Independent Amy Willis 0% 3
Total Votes 2,560,102
Source: Indiana Secretary of State "United States Senate Election Results"

Demographics

Demographic data for Indiana

IndianaU.S.
Total population:6,612,768316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):35,8263,531,905
Gender
Female:50.7%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:84.2%73.6%
Black/African American:9.2%12.6%
Asian:1.9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Indiana.

As of July 2016, Indiana had a population of approximately 6,600,000 people, with its three largest cities being Indianapolis (pop. est. 856,000), Fort Wayne (pop. est. 265,000), and Evansville (pop. est. 119,000). The chart on the right shows demographic information for Indiana from 2010 to 2015.