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Former U.S. Treasury official Haley Stevens (D) defeated business owner Lena Epstein (R), public relations account executive Cooper Nye (I), and economist Leonard Schwartz (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Michigan's 11th Congressional District.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Incumbent David Trott (R), who was first elected in 2014, did not seek re-election in 2018, setting up a competitive race to replace him. In 2016, Trott was re-elected by 13 points. Although the district backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008, it voted for Mitt Romney (R) and Donald Trump (R) in the following presidential elections. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the district in its list of targets for 2018.
The district was 99 percent suburban at the time of the 2018 election, which, according to Roll Call, made it more likely to lean Democratic.
Michigan's 11th Congressional District, Epstein vs. Stevens
| Poll | Haley Stevens (D) | Lena Epstein (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Insyght October 15-17, 2018 | 48% | 48% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 500 |
| New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 1-6, 2018 | 45% | 38% | 17% | +/-5 | 465 |
Michigan's 11th Congressional District, Epstein vs. Stevens
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Haley Stevens (D) | Lena Epstein (R) | Leonard Schwartz (L) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALG Research October 10-14, 2018 | Haley Stevens (D) campaign | 44% | 34% | 4% | 16% | +/-4.3 | 513 |
Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Tim Greimel | Haley Stevens | Suneel Gupta | Fayrouz Saad | Nancy Skinner | Dan Haberman | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA (July 23 - 24, 2018) | The Detroit Free Press | 21% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 34% | +/-3.7 | 700 |
| Target-Insyght (April 10 - 12, 2018) | Target-Insyght | 8% | 14% | 13% | 7% | 0% | 4% | 54% | +/-4.5 | 500 |
| AVERAGES | 14.5% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 2% | 2% | 44% | +/-4.1 | 600 |
Michigan's 11th Congressional District Republican primary, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Lena Epstein | Rocky Raczkowski | Klint Kesto | Mike Kowall | Kerry Bentivolio | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications (July 30, 2018) | Michigan Information Research Services | 27% | 18% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 20% | +/-5.0 | 305 |
| EPIC-MRA (July 23 - 24, 2018) | The Detroit Free Press | 26% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 28% | +/-3.7 | 700 |
| AVERAGES | 26.5% | 18.5% | 11.5% | 9% | 10.5% | 24% | +/-4.35 | 502.5 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haley Stevens | Democratic Party | $4,199,607 | $4,184,089 | $15,518 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Lena Epstein | Republican Party | $2,723,099 | $2,675,140 | $47,958 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Leonard Schwartz | Libertarian Party | $7,129 | $1,644 | $5,484 | As of July 18, 2018 |
| Cooper Nye | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Michigan Secretary of State.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Michigan every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Michigan 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
47.5% |  Hillary Clinton |
47.3% | 0.2% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
54.2% | Mitt Romney |
44.7% | 9.5% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
57.4% | John McCain |
41.0% | 16.4% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
51.2% | George W. Bush |
47.8% | 3.4% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
51.3% | George W. Bush |
46.2% | 5.1% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Michigan 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Gary Peters |
54.6% | Terri Lynn Land |
41.3% | 13.3% |
| 2012 | Debbie Stabenow |
58.8% | Pete Hoekstra |
38.0% | 20.8% |
| 2008 | Carl Levin |
62.7% | Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. |
33.9% | 28.8% |
| 2006 | Debbie Stabenow |
56.9% | Michael Bouchard |
41.3% | 15.6% |
| 2002 | Carl Levin |
60.6% | Rocky Raczkowski |
37.9% | 22.7% |
| 2000 | Debbie Stabenow |
49.5% | Spence Abraham |
47.9% | 1.6% |
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Michigan.
Election results (Governor), Michigan 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Rick Snyder |
50.9% | Mark Schauer |
46.9% | 4.0% |
| 2010 | Rick Snyder |
58.1% | Virg Bernero |
39.9% | 18.2% |
| 2006 | Jennifer Granholm |
56.4% | Dick DeVos |
42.3% | 14.1% |
| 2002 | Jennifer Granholm |
51.4% | Dick Posthumus |
47.4% | 4.0% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Michigan in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Congressional delegation, Michigan 2000-2016
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9 |
64.3% | 5 |
35.7% | R+4 |
| 2014 | 9 |
64.3% | 5 |
35.7% | R+4 |
| 2012 | 9 |
64.3% | 5 |
35.7% | R+4 |
| 2010 | 9 |
60.0% | 6 |
40.0% | R+3 |
| 2008 | 7 |
46.7% | 8 |
53.3% | D+1 |
| 2006 | 8 |
53.3% | 7 |
46.7% | R+1 |
| 2004 | 9 |
60.0% | 6 |
40.0% | R+3 |
| 2002 | 9 |
60.0% | 6 |
40.0% | R+3 |
| 2000 | 7 |
43.75% | 9 |
56.25% | D+2 |
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Michigan Party Control: 1992-2019
No Democratic trifectas • 14 years of Republican trifectas
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | S | S | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographic data for Michigan
| Michigan | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 9,917,715 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 56,539 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.9% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 79% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 14% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.6% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 4.7% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.6% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 26.9% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $49,576 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 20% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Michigan. | ||
As of July 2016, Michigan's three largest cities were Detroit (pop. est. 673,000), Grand Rapids (pop. est. 199,000), and Warren (pop. est. 135,000).
