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New Mexico, Lieutenant Governor

U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) in the general election for governor of New Mexico on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Gov. Susana Martinez (R) was prevented by term limits from seeking a third term, leaving the seat open.

New Mexico had been under a divided government since 2011, with the Republican Party in control of the governorship and the Democratic Party in control of both chambers of the state Legislature. The state was also under divided triplex control, since the governor was a Republican while the attorney general and secretary of state were Democrats.

New Mexico was one of eight states conducting a gubernatorial election in 2018 that was carried by Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 with a Republican occupying the governor's office. The race was identified by Politico as among the top ten gubernatorial races to watch for 2018.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under New Mexico state law, the state Legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.

Polls

New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Lujan Grisham Republican Party PearceUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal
October 26-November 1, 2018
N/A 53%43%4%+/-3.1993
Carroll Strategies
October 29, 2018
N/A 51%46%3%+/-2.81,200
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
October 22-26, 2018
Lujan Grisham 53%44%3%+/-4.0600
Emerson
October 24-26, 2018
N/A 53%44%4%+/-3.4936
Albuquerque Journal
September 7-13, 2018
N/A 50%43%7%+/-3.1966
Global Strategy Group
August 27-30, 2018
N/A 52%42%5%+/-4.0601
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research
August 18-22, 2018
Lujan Grisham 52%44%4%+/-4.0600
SurveyUSA
June 19-23, 2018
N/A 51%38%11%+/-5.0535
The Tarrance Group
April 9-12, 2018
Pearce 47%45%8%+/-4.1608
AVERAGES 51.33% 43.22% 5.44% +/-3.72 782.11

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic

Election history

2014

In the 2014 gubernatorial election, incumbent Susana Martinez (R) defeated challenger Gary King (D).

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSusana Martinez/John A. Sanchez Incumbent 57.2% 293,443
Democrat Gary King/Debra Haaland 42.8% 219,362
Total Votes 512,805
Election results via New Mexico Secretary of State

2010

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Susana Martinez (R) defeated Diane Denish (D).

2010 New Mexico gubernatorial general election

Party Candidate Vote Percentage
Democratic Party Diane Denish 46.51%
Republican Party Approved Susana Martinez 53.33%
Other write-ins 0.17%
Total Votes 601,752

Demographics

Demographic data for New Mexico

New MexicoU.S.
Total population:2,080,328316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):121,2983,531,905
Gender
Female:50.5%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:73.2%73.6%
Black/African American:2.1%12.6%
Asian:1.4%5.1%
Native American:9.1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.3%3%
Hispanic/Latino:47.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:84.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$44,963$53,889
Persons below poverty level:24.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Mexico.

As of July 2016, New Mexico's three largest cities were Albuquerque (pop. est. 560,000), Las Cruces (pop. est. 100,000), and Rio Rancho (pop. est. 96,000).