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Ohio, Governor

Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) defeated former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray (D), Constance Gadell-Newton (G), and Travis Irvine (L) in the general election for governor of Ohio on November 6, 2018.

Incumbent John Kasich (R) was prevented from seeking election to a third term due to term limits, leaving the seat open. Kasich was last elected in 2014 by a margin of 31 percentage points. Of the ten preceding gubernatorial elections, a Republican candidate won seven—including Kasich's victories in 2010 and 2014—and a Democratic candidate won three. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 8 percentage points. Election forecasters considered the race to be close; as of November 2018, the race was rated Toss-up by three elections forecasters.

DeWine's victory preserved the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the election, Ohio had been a Republican trifecta since Republicans gained a majority in the state House and John Kasich (R) took office as governor in 2010. The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Ohio state law, the governor may veto congressional district maps proposed by the state legislature and sits on the seven-member commission responsible for drawing a congressional district map in the event the legislature is unable to settle on a proposal. The governor also sits on the seven-member commission responsible for drawing new state legislative district maps.

Ohio was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.

Polls

Governor of Ohio, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Cordray (D) DeWine (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Cygnal
(October 30-31, 2018)
N/A 43%43%14%+/-4.4503
Gravis Marketing
(October 29-30, 2018)
N/A 48%43%9%+/-3.5789
Emerson College
(October 26-28, 2018)
N/A 49%46%3%+/-4.3566
Baldwin Wallace University
(October 19-27, 2018)
N/A 39%39%22%+/-3.81,051
Suffolk University
(October 4-8, 2018)
The Cincinnati Enquirer 46%40%14%+/-4.4500

Governor of Ohio, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Cordray (D) DeWine (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Baldwin Wallace University
(September 28 - October 8, 2018)
N/A 39%42%19%+/-3.51,017
Triton Polling and Research
(September 18-20, 2018)
The Ohio Star 44%49%8%+/-3.11,003
Marist College
(September 16-20, 2018)
NBC News 47%47%7%+/-5.0564
Ipsos
(September 13-20, 2018)
Thomson Reuters/University of Virginia 44%45%11%+/-3.41,074
Baldwin Wallace University
(September 5-15, 2018)
N/A 37%42%21%+/-3.61,048
Politico
(September 2-11, 2018)
AARP 38%39%23%+/-2.01,592
Change Research
(August 31 - September 4, 2018)
Innovation Ohio 43%43%14%+/-3.0822
Marist College
(June 17-22, 2018)
NBC News 42%46%13%+/-4.0946
Quinnipiac University
(June 7-12, 2018)
N/A 42%40%18%+/-3.71,082
Suffolk University
(June 6-11, 2018)
The Cincinnati Enquirer 43%36%16%+/-4.4500
Ohio governor 2018 (Cordray vs. DeWine hypothetical matchup)
Poll Poll sponsor Richard Cordray (D) Mike DeWine (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Public Policy Polling
(May 6-7, 2018)
Democratic Party of Ohio 44%39%17%+/-3.9618
Public Policy Polling
(April 25-26, 2018)
N/A 47%38%14%+/-3.5770
SurveyUSA
(March 16-20, 2018)
N/A 39%47%14%+/-3.51,408
Public Policy Polling
(January 22-23, 2018)
N/A 44%45%11%+/-4.1585
Fallon Research
(January 16-19, 2018)
N/A 28%49%23%+/-3.5801
AVERAGES 40.4% 43.6% 15.8% +/-3.7 836.4
Ohio governor 2018 (Kucinich vs. DeWine hypothetical matchup)
Poll Dennis Kucinich (D) Mike DeWine (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
SurveyUSA
(March 16-20, 2018)
38%51%12%+/-3.51,408

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up

Election history

2014

Republican incumbent John Kasich won re-election on November 4, 2014.

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Ohio, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Kasich/Mary Taylor Incumbent 63.6% 1,944,848
Democratic Ed FitzGerald/Sharen Neuhardt 33% 1,009,359
Green Anita Rios/Bob Fitrakis 3.3% 101,706
Total Votes 3,055,913
Election results via Ohio Secretary of State

2010

On November 2, 2010, John Kasich/Mary Taylor won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio. He ran unopposed in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Kasich/Mary Taylor 49% 1,889,186
Democratic Ted Strickland/Yvette McGee Brown Incumbent 47% 1,812,059
Libertarian Ken Matesz/Margaret Ann Leech 2.4% 92,116
Green Dennis Spisak/Anita Rios 1.5% 58,475
Write-In David Sargent 0% 633
Total Votes 3,852,469
Election results via Ohio Secretary of State.

2006

On November 7, 2006, Ted Strickland/Lee Fisher won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio. He defeated J. Kenneth Blackwell, Robert Fitrakis, William S. Peirce, Larry Bays and James Lundeen in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio, 2006

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTed Strickland/Lee Fisher 60.5% 2,435,505
Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell/Tom Raga 36.6% 1,474,331
Non-Partisan William S. Peirce 1.8% 71,473
Non-Partisan Robert Fitrakis 1% 40,967
Write-In James Lundeen 0% 579
Write-In Larry Bays 0% 73
Total Votes 4,022,928
Election results via Ohio Secretary of State.

2002

On November 5, 2002, Bob Taft won re-election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio. He defeated Timothy Hagan, John Eastman, James Whitman and Eva Braiman in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio, 2002

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBob Taft Incumbent 57.8% 1,865,007
Democratic Timothy Hagan 38.3% 1,236,924
Independent John Eastman 3.9% 126,686
Write-In James Whitman 0% 291
Write-In Eva Braiman 0% 84
Total Votes 3,228,992
Election results via Ohio Secretary of State.

Demographics

Demographic data for Ohio

OhioU.S.
Total population:11,605,090316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):40,8613,531,905
Gender
Female:51.1%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.4%73.6%
Black/African American:12.2%12.6%
Asian:1.9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.1%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,429$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.6%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Ohio.

As of July 2017, Ohio had a population of 11,700,000 people, with its three largest cities being Columbus (pop. est. 860,000), Cleveland (pop. est. 390,000), and Cincinnati (pop. est. 300,000).