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Pennsylvania, Governor

Sitting Gov. Tom Wolf (D) defeated former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) in the general election for governor of Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.

Although Wolf was first elected by a margin of 10 percentage points in 2014, Donald Trump (R) carried the state in the 2016 presidential election. The previous four presidential elections were won by the Democratic candidate, with Barack Obama (D) earning the largest victory margin at 10 percent in 2008. The narrowest was Trump's one percent margin in 2016.

The previous 10 gubernatorial elections were also split: Republican and Democratic candidates each won five.

A Republican victory could have shifted Pennsylvania from a divided government to a Republican trifecta with Republicans controlling both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office. Three race raters called the race Likely Democratic.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Pennsylvania state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals. The governor may not veto district map proposals for state legislative seats, which are drawn by a political commission.

Polls

Governor of Pennsylvania, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Tom Wolf Republican Party Scott WagnerUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Franklin & Marshall University
September 17-23, 2018
N/A 52%30%18%+/-6.1545
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 12-19, 2018
N/A 55%38%8%+/-3.41,080
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
September 13-19, 2018
N/A 55%36%9%+/-5.5404
Rasmussen Reports
September 12-13, 2018
N/A 52%40%8%+/-3.5800
Marist College
August 12-16, 2018
NBC News 54%40%6%+/-4.2713
Suffolk University
June 21-25, 2018
N/A 47%36%15%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 52.5% 36.67% 10.67% +/-4.52 673.67
Pennsylvania Governor, 2018 (Wolf vs. Ellsworth hypothetical matchup)
Poll Tom Wolf (D) Laura Ellsworth (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Muhlenberg College
(April 4-12, 2018)
46%26%28%+/-5.5414
Franklin & Marshall College
(March 19-26, 2018)
51%22%27%+/-6.8423
AVERAGES 48.5% 24% 27.5% +/-6.15 418.5
Pennsylvania Governor, 2018 (Wolf vs. Mango hypothetical matchup)
Poll Tom Wolf (D) Paul Mango (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Muhlenberg College
(April 4-12, 2018)
47%27%27%+/-5.5414
Franklin & Marshall College
(March 19-26, 2018)
49%22%29%+/-6.8423
AVERAGES 48% 24.5% 28% +/-6.15 418.5
Pennsylvania Governor, 2018 (Wolf vs. Wagner hypothetical matchup)
Poll Tom Wolf (D) Scott Wagner (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Muhlenberg College
(April 4-12, 2018)
47%31%21%+/-5.5414
Franklin & Marshall College
(March 19-26, 2018)
38%21%41%+/-6.8423
AVERAGES 42.5% 26% 31% +/-6.15 418.5

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic

Election history

2014

Democrats Tom Wolf and Mike Stack won election on November 4, 2014.

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTom Wolf/Mike Stack 54.9% 1,920,355
Republican Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley Incumbent 45.1% 1,575,511
Total Votes 3,495,866
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State

2010

On November 2, 2010, Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley won election to the office of governor/lt. gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin in the general election.

governor/lt. gov. of Pennsylvania, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom Corbett/Jim Cawley 54.5% 2,172,763
Democratic Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin 45.5% 1,814,788
Total Votes 3,987,551
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State.

2006

On November 7, 2006, Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll won re-election to the office of Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Lynn Swann/Jim Matthews in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2006

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll Incumbent 60.4% 2,470,517
Republican Lynn Swann/Jim Matthews 39.6% 1,622,135
Total Votes 4,092,652
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State.

2002

On November 5, 2002, Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Mike Fisher/Jane M. Earll, Ken V. Krawchuk/Henry E. Haller and Michael Morrill/Vicki J. Smedley in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2002

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll 53.4% 1,913,235
Republican Mike Fisher/Jane M. Earll 44.4% 1,589,408
Libertarian Ken V. Krawchuk/Henry E. Haller 1.1% 40,923
Green Michael Morrill/Vicki J. Smedley 1.1% 38,423
Total Votes 3,581,989
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State.

Demographics

Demographic data for Pennsylvania

PennsylvaniaU.S.
Total population:12,791,904316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):44,7433,531,905
Gender
Female:51.1%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:81.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11%12.6%
Asian:3.1%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:28.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,599$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania.

As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).