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Texas, U.S. Senate


Freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) and entrepreneur Neal Dikeman (L) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas on November 6, 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Although Texas had voted to send a Republican to the White House, U.S. Senate, and governor’s office in every statewide election since 1994, two election forecasters called this race a Toss-up or Leans Republican. Cruz won his first term in 2012, defeating former state Rep. Paul Sadler (D) by 16 percentage points, 57 percent to 41 percent.

“If this race looks different than the rest, that’s probably because it is a strong Democratic challenger raising prolific sums of money and tons of earned media," said Lyceum Poll Research Director Josh Blank.

Polls

U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke

Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Cruz Democratic Party O'RourkeOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Trafalgar Group
November 3-5, 2018
N/A 52%43%5%+/-2.12,135
Emerson
October 28-30, 2018
N/A 50%47%2%+/-3.7781
UT Tyler Polling Center
October 15-28, 2018
N/A 46%39%15%+/-3.01,033
Quinnipiac University
October 22-28, 2018
N/A 51%46%3%+/-3.51,078
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
October 25-26, 2018
N/A 52%42%5%+/-4.0588
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
October 15-21, 2018
N/A 51%45%4%+/-3.2927
GBA Strategies
October 18-21, 2018
End Citizens United 50%46%4%+/-3.21,298
Reuters
October 12-18, 2018
N/A 49%44%7%+/-3.21,298
CNN/SRSS
October 9-13, 2018
N/A 52%45%3%+/-4.5716
WPA Intelligence
October 8-13, 2018
Club for Growth Action 52%43%5%+/-3.5801
New York Times/Siena College
October 8-11, 2018
N/A 51%43%6%+/-3.6800
Quinnipiac University
October 3-9, 2018
N/A 54%45%2%+/-4.4730
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
N/A 50%44%6%+/-4.2881
Emerson
October 1-5, 2018
N/A 47%42%11%+/-4.5500
AVERAGES 50.5% 43.86% 5.57% +/-3.61 969

U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke

Poll Poll sponsor Ted Cruz (R) Beto O'Rourke (D)Other/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
September 19-20, 2018
Protect Our Care 48%45%7%+/-4.0613
Quinnipiac University
September 11-17, 2018
N/A 54%45%1%+/-4.1807
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 6-14, 2018
N/A 45%47%8%+/-4.0992
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll
September 6-7, 2018
N/A 46%42%11%+/-4.3519
NBC News/Marist
August 12-16, 2018
N/A 49%45%6%+/-3.8759
Public Policy Polling
August 2-3, 2018
N/A 46%42%12%+/-3.5797
Quinnipiac University
July 26-31, 2018
N/A 49%43%7%+/-3.51,118
Lyceum
July 9-26, 2018
N/A 36%34%27%+/-3.45806
Gravis Marketing
July 3-7, 2018
N/A 51%42%7%+/-4.0602
CBS News/YouGov
June 19-22, 2018
N/A 44%36%20%+/-3.61,030
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
June 8-17, 2018
N/A 41%36%22%+/-2.81,200
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
May 20-June 5, 2018
End Citizens United 49%43%8%+/-3.11,000
Quinnipiac University
May 23-29, 2018
N/A 50%39%11%+/-3.8961
Public Policy Polling
May 21-22, 2018
Giffords 48%42%10%+/-3.3861
JMC Analytics
May 19-21, 2018
Red Metrics Group 47%40%13%+/-4.1575
Quinnipiac University
April 12-17, 2018
N/A 47%44%9%+/-3.61,029
Public Policy Polling
January 17-18, 2018
End Citizens United 45%37%18%+/-3.6757

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Beto O'Rourke Democratic Party $80,338,144 $80,450,313 $286,531 As of December 31, 2018
Ted Cruz Republican Party $35,409,077 $39,458,810 $157,959 As of December 31, 2018
Neal Dikeman Libertarian Party $33,732 $33,398 $333 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.



Election history

2014

U.S. Senate, Texas General Election, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Cornyn Incumbent 61.6% 2,861,531
Democratic David Alameel 34.4% 1,597,387
Libertarian Rebecca Paddock 2.9% 133,751
Green Emily Marie Sanchez 1.2% 54,701
Write-in Mohammed Tahiro 0% 988
Total Votes 4,648,358
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012

U.S. Senate, Texas General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTed Cruz 56.5% 4,440,137
Democratic Paul Sadler 40.6% 3,194,927
Libertarian John Jay Myers 2.1% 162,354
Green David B. Collins 0.9% 67,404
Total Votes 7,864,822
Source: Texas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Demographics

Demographic data for Texas

TexasU.S.
Total population:27,429,639316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):261,2323,531,905
Gender
Female:50.4%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:74.9%73.6%
Black/African American:11.9%12.6%
Asian:4.2%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,207$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas.

As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).