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Vermont, Governor

Vermont held an election for governor on November 6, 2018. The candidate filing deadline was May 31, 2018.

Under the state constitution, if no gubernatorial candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the state legislature elects a governor directly from among the top three finishers. As of October 2018, the state legislature has decided the results of 25 gubernatorial elections. No second or third-place finisher has been elected governor by the legislature since 1789. The last gubernatorial election decided by the legislature was in 2014, when legislators voted in favor of another term for incumbent and first-place finisher Peter Shumlin (D).

SETTING THE STAGE
  • Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor was Phillip Scott (R), who was first elected in 2016.
  • Heading into the election, Vermont was under a divided government. It had held this status since Scott took office in January 2017. Vermont was also under divided triplex control.
  • Vermont was won by the Democratic candidate in each of the previous five presidential elections. The widest margin of victory was Barack Obama's 37 percent margin in 2008 while the narrowest was Al Gore's ten percent margin in 2000.
  • Vermont was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.

    Polls

    Vermont Governor 2018

    Poll Poll sponsor Phil Scott (R) Christine Hallquist (D)Trevor Barlow (I)Cris Ericson (I)Charles Laramie (I)Emily Peyton (Liberty Union Party)Stephen Marx (Earth Rights Party)None/Write in/OtherNot sure/No opinionMargin of errorSample size
    Braun Research
    (October 5-14, 2018)
    Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS 42%28%1%1%1%1%0%3%22%+/-4.4495

    Race rating

    Race ratings: Vermont gubernatorial election, 2018

    Race trackerRace ratings
    November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
    The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican

    State election history

    This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Vermont from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Vermont Secretary of State.

    Historical elections

    Presidential elections

    This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Vermont every year from 2000 to 2016.

    Election results (President of the United States), Vermont 2000-2016

    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 56.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 30.3% 26.4%
    2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 66.8% Republican Party Mitt Romney 31.1% 35.7%
    2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 67.5% Republican Party John McCain 30.4% 37.1%
    2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 58.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 38.8% 20.1%
    2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.7% 9.9%

    U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Vermont from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

    Election results (U.S. Senator), Vermont 2000-2016

    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Democratic Party Patrick Leahy 61.3% Republican Party Scott Milne 33.0% 28.3%
    2012 Grey.png Bernie Sanders 71.0% Republican Party John Macgovern 24.9% 46.1%
    2010 Republican Party Patrick Leahy 64.3% Democratic Party Len Britton 30.9% 33.4%
    2006 Democratic Party Bernie Sanders 65.4% Republican Party Rich Tarrant 32.4% 33.0%
    2004 Democratic Party Patrick Leahy 70.6% Republican Party Jack McMullen 24.5% 46.1%
    2000 Republican Party James M. Jeffords 65.6% Democratic Party Ed Flanagan 25.4% 40.2%

    Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every two years in Vermont.

    Election results (Governor), Vermont 2000-2016

    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Republican Party Phil Scott 52.9% Democratic Party Sue Minter 44.2% 8.7%
    2014 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 46.5% Republican Party Scott Milne 45.2% 1.3%
    2012 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 58.0% Republican Party Randy Brock 37.7% 20.3%
    2010 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 49.5% Republican Party Brian Dubie 47.7% 1.8%
    2008 Republican Party Jim Douglas 53.4% Grey.png Anthony Pollina 21.9% 31.5%
    2006 Republican Party Jim Douglas 56.4% Democratic Party Scudder Parker 41.2% 15.2%
    2004 Republican Party Jim Douglas 58.7% Democratic Party Peter Clavelle 37.9% 20.8%
    2002 Republican Party Jim Douglas 44.9% Democratic Party Doug Racine 42.4% 2.5%
    2000 Democratic Party Howard Dean 50.5% Republican Party Ruth Dwyer 37.9% 12.6%

    Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

    See the list below for the members elected to represent Vermont in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Vermont has one at-large representative in the House. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

    Trifectas, 1992-2017

    “A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.”

    Vermont Party Control: 1992-2019
    10 years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
    Governor D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R
    Senate D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
    House R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


    Demographics

    Demographic data for Vermont

    VermontU.S.
    Total population:626,088316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):9,2173,531,905
    Gender
    Female:50.8%50.8%
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:94.9%73.6%
    Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
    Asian:1.4%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:1.9%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:1.7%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:91.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:36%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$55,176$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:13.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Vermont.

    As of July 2016, Vermont's largest cities by population were Burlington (pop. est. 42,239), Essex (pop. est. 21,519), and South Burlington (pop. est. 19,141).