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Wisconsin, U.S. House, District 1

Bryan Steil (R) defeated Randy Bryce (D) and Ken Yorgan (I) in the 2018 general election for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District.

On April 11, 2018, House Speaker and 1st District Rep. Paul Ryan (R) announced that he would not seek re-election, leaving the seat open for the first time in 20 years. Following Ryan's announcement, FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich wrote that "the combination of a potential Democratic wave and the fact that no incumbent will be running have put this district within reach for Democrats." Ryan had held the seat since 1998, winning re-election in 2016 by 35 percentage points.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placed the district on its list of 2018 targets in November 2017. On August 15, 2018, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced that it was adding Bryan Steil (R) to its Contenders list, the second tier of the Young Guns program, meaning he would receive organizational and financial support from the group.

Ryan and Pres. Donald Trump (R) endorsed Steil in the race. Bryce received endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and former Pres. Barack Obama (D).

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Polls

Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

Poll Randy Bryce Bryan SteilUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NYT Upshot/Siena College
September 11-13, 2018
44%50%6%+/-4.7500


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Randy Bryce Democratic Party $8,624,818 $8,616,498 $8,320 As of December 31, 2018
Bryan Steil Republican Party $2,314,019 $2,287,663 $26,356 As of December 31, 2018
Ken Yorgan Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Wisconsin every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Wisconsin 2000-2016

Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 47.8% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.3% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.8% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.9% 6.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 56.2% Republican Party John McCain 42.3% 13.9%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 49.7% Republican Party George W. Bush 49.3% 0.4%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 0.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Wisconsin 2000-2016

Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Ron Johnson 50.2% Democratic Party Russ Feingold 46.8% 3.4%
2012 Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin 51.4% Republican Party Tommy Thompson 45.9% 5.5%
2010 Republican Party Ron Johnson 51.9% Democratic Party Russ Feingold 47.0% 4.9%
2006 Democratic Party Herb Kohl 67.3% Republican Party Robert Lorge 29.5% 37.8%
2004 Democratic Party Russ Feingold 55.3% Republican Party Tim Michels 44.1% 11.2%
2000 Democratic Party Herb Kohl 61.5% Republican Party John Gillespie 37.0% 24.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Wisconsin.

Election results (Governor), Wisconsin 2000-2016

Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Scott Walker 52.3% Democratic Party Mary Burke 46.6% 5.7%
2010 Republican Party Scott Walker 52.3% Democratic Party Tom Barrett 46.5% 5.8%
2006 Democratic Party Jim Doyle 52.7% Republican Party Mark Green 45.3% 7.4%
2002 Democratic Party Jim Doyle 45.1% Republican Party Scott McCallum 41.4% 3.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Wisconsin 2000-2016

Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2014 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2012 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% -
2002 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% -
2000 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Wisconsin Party Control: 1992-2019
Two years of Democratic trifectas • 10 years of Republican trifectas

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D
Senate D R R R D D R D D D D R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R R


Demographics

Demographic data for Wisconsin

WisconsinU.S.
Total population:5,767,891316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):54,1583,531,905
Gender
Female:50.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:86.5%73.6%
Black/African American:6.3%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:0.9%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,357$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin.

As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).