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Wisconsin, U.S. Senate

Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) faced state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin on November 6, 2018.

Baldwin is one of ten Democratic senators up for re-election in a state that President Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. By a margin of one point, he became the first Republican presidential nominee to win Wisconsin since 1984. Baldwin was first elected in 2012 by a margin of 6 points.



Election updates

  • August 22, 2018: Baldwin led Vukmir within the margin of error, 49 percent to 47 percent, in a Marquette Law School Poll of 601 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Polls

U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin, General election: Baldwin (D) vs. Vukmir (R)

Poll Tammy Baldwin (D) Leah Vukmir (R)Other/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Marquette Law School Poll
August 15-19, 2018
49%47%3%+/-4.5601
NBC News/Marist Poll
July 15-19, 2018
55%38%6%+/-3.8906
Public Policy Polling
March 15-16, 2018
51%39%10%+/-3.3910


U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin, General election: Baldwin (D) vs. Nicholson (R)

Poll Tammy Baldwin (D) Kevin Nicholson(R)Other/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NBC News/Marist Poll
July 15-19, 2018
54%39%6%+/-3.8906
Public Policy Polling
March 15-16, 2018
51%38%11%+/-3.3910


U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin, Republican primary

Poll Poll sponsor Nicholson VukmirScheissOther/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NBC News/Marist Poll
July 15-19, 2018
N/A 38%28%0%34%+/-6.1355
Hodas & Associates
July 12-16, 2018
Restoration PAC 33%20%0%48%+/-3.0600
Marquette Law School
July 11-15, 2018
N/A 32%34%0%34%+/-7266
Marquette Law School
June 13-17, 2018
N/A 37%32%0%32%+/-6.9800
Hodas & Associates
June 7-12, 2018
Restoration PAC 28%14%0%58%+/-3.0600
WPA Intelligence
December 6-7, 2017
Nicholson for Senate 30%23%2%45%+/-3.11,004


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tammy Baldwin Democratic Party $27,758,853 $28,706,579 $142,193 As of December 31, 2018
Leah Vukmir Republican Party $5,746,723 $5,704,364 $42,360 As of December 31, 2018
Leah Vukmir Republican Party $105,976 $105,976 $0 As of November 26, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Election history

2016

The race for Wisconsin's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Incumbent Ron Johnson (R) defeated former Senator Russ Feingold (D) and Phil Anderson (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016.

In a rematch of the 2010 election, Johnson topped Feingold for a second time to retain his Senate seat. Johnson, who trailed in the polls for most of the election, was able to tighten the race as Election Day neared by producing ads that showed his personal side. According to The Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, Johnson and his brother Dean, a co-host and the executive producer of the PBS series "Hometime," "brainstormed ideas that would turn into personal and effective ads that showed Johnson in a favorable light.”

As the race grew tighter, Johnson was also able to attack Feingold in the final weeks of the election with the help of national Republicans who initially thought that the seat was a lost cause. When asked about the last minute outside helped, Johnson said, "I wish I would have had the cavalry show up in June, July, August when Feingold was using his little moneymaking machine to out resource me. I guess, better late than never."

Feingold reacted to his loss by saying to supporters, “I didn’t expect this outcome, to be honest with you.” Commenting on his loss and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s, Feingold said that he did not understand what was happening in the country. He said, “I would urge you to be as restrained as you can be as the next steps occur...this could be one the most challenging times in the history of our country.”

Johnson, who defeated Feingold by three percentage points, said that he "was surprised" by his victory margin. In his victory speech, Johnson said, "I believe America has given us a chance, an opportunity to put this nation on the right path. It's exactly what I intend to do."

U.S. Senate, Wisconsin General Election, 2016

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRon Johnson Incumbent 50.2% 1,479,471
Democratic Russ Feingold 46.8% 1,380,335
Libertarian Phil Anderson 3% 87,531
N/A Write-in 0% 8
Total Votes 2,947,345
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

U.S. Senate, Wisconsin Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRuss Feingold 90.2% 303,791
Scott Harbach 9.8% 33,096
Total Votes 336,887
Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission

2012

Tammy Baldwin won election to the U.S. Senate in 2012.

U.S. Senate, Wisconsin, General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTammy Baldwin 51.5% 1,547,104
Republican Tommy Thompson 45.9% 1,380,126
Libertarian Joseph Kexel 2.1% 62,240
Independent Nimrod Allen III 0.5% 16,455
N/A Write-ins 0% 113
Total Votes 3,006,038
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2012 Election Statistics"

Demographics

Demographic data for Wisconsin

WisconsinU.S.
Total population:5,767,891316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):54,1583,531,905
Gender
Female:50.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:86.5%73.6%
Black/African American:6.3%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:0.9%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,357$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin.

As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).