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West Virginia, U.S. Senate


Incumbent Joe Manchin III (D) defeated state attorney general Patrick Morrisey (R) and petroleum engineer Rusty Hollen (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent West Virginia in the United States Senate.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Election forecasters considered Manchin to be among the most vulnerable incumbents in the U.S. Senate. Manchin was among 10 Democratic members of the U.S. Senate seeking re-election in 2018 from a state carried by Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump's 42 percent margin of victory over Hillary Clinton (D) in West Virginia was his second-largest nationwide. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.

Polls

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)

Poll Poll sponsor Joe Manchin (D) Patrick Morrisey (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Emerson College
(October 28-31, 2018)
N/A 47%42%11%+/-3.21,013
Research America
(October 19-30, 2018)
The Metro News
The Dominion Post
45%40%16%+/-4.9400
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
(October 16-18, 2018)
National Republican Senatorial Committee 42%44%15%+/-4.0600
PopPolling Research
(October 13-15, 2018)
N/A 53%47%0%+/-3.5789
Strategic Research Associates, LLC
(October 12-19, 2018)
Gray Television 52%36%12%+/-3.8650

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)

Poll Poll sponsor Joe Manchin (D) Patrick Morrisey (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
The Polling Company
(October 11-13, 2018)
Citizens United Political Victory Fund 49%45%5%+/-4.0600
Public Opinion Strategies
(October 7-9, 2018)
National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Morrisey campaign 41%40%19%+/-4.0600
The Tarrance Group
(September 23-25, 2018)
47%43%10%+/-4.1612
Global Strategy Group
(September 19-23, 2018)
48%36%16%+/-4.0601
Strategic Research Associates, LLC
(September 17-26, 2018)
46%38%16%+/-3.8650
1892 Polling
(September 24-25, 2018)
45%45%10%+/-4.4500
Harper Polling
(August 23-26, 2018)
47%41%12%+/-4.0600
MetroNews Dominion Post
(August 16-26, 2018)
46%38%16%+/-4.9404
Trafalgar Group
(July 13-16, 2018)
50%40%10%+/-2.91,158
Monmouth University
(June 14-19, 2018)
49%42%9%+/-3.8653
Public Policy Polling
(June 12-13, 2018)
49%42%9%+/-3.9633
Global Strategy Group
May 13-16, 2018
50%42%8%+/-4.0600
WPA Intelligence
May 10, 2018
44%46%10%+/-4.9400

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin, Morrisey, and Blankenship)

Poll Joe Manchin (D) Patrick Morrisey (R)Don BlankenshipUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Monmouth University
(June 14-19, 2018)
48%39%4%8%+/-3.8653
Public Policy Polling
(June 12-13, 2018)
46%35%11%7%+/-3.9633

U.S. Senate general election in West Virginia, Mountain State Polls

Poll Joe Manchin Evan JenkinsAlex MooneyPatrick MorriseyUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins
(September 27-30, 2017)
49%36%0%0%15%+/-5.5320
The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
(September 27-30, 2017)
49%0%35%0%17%+/-5.5320
The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
(September 27-30, 2017)
45%0%0%38%17%+/-5.5320
MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins
(August 11-20, 2017)
50%40%0%0%11%+/-4.9400
MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
(August 11-20, 2017)
51%0%0%37%11%+/-4.9400
The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins
(March 24-29, 2017)
52%28%0%0%20%+/-4.89402
The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
(March 24-29, 2017)
51%0%0%29%20%+/-4.89402
AVERAGES 49.57% 14.86% 5% 14.86% 15.86% +/-5.15 366.29

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, Republican primary

Poll Patrick Morrisey (R) Evan Jenkins (R)Don Blankenship (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Opinion Strategies (commissioned by Morrisey)
April 22-23, 2018
28%26%15%18%+/-4.4500
Fox News
April 18-22, 2018
21%25%16%39%+/-3.0985
GOPAC
April 17-19, 2018
24%20%12%44%+/-4.9411
Harper Polling
March 2018
19%29%27%23%+/-4.4500
Osage Research
March 2018
24%17%22%37%+/-4.4500
Harper Polling
February 5-6, 2018
25%33%18%24%+/-4.4500
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates
October 19-22, 2017
40%34%0%26%+/-4.9400


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Joe Manchin III Democratic Party $8,420,592 $7,802,323 $2,290,829 As of December 31, 2018
Patrick Morrisey Republican Party $6,200,877 $6,153,109 $47,768 As of December 31, 2018
Rusty Hollen Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Election history

2014

U.S. Senate, West Virginia General Election, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngShelley Moore Capito 62.1% 281,820
Democratic Natalie Tennant 34.5% 156,360
Libertarian John Buckley 1.6% 7,409
Constitution Phil Hudok 0.6% 2,566
Mountain Bob Henry Baber 1.2% 5,504
N/A Write-ins 0% 30
Total Votes 453,689
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012

U.S. Senate, West Virginia General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Manchin III Incumbent 60.6% 399,898
Republican John R. Raese 36.5% 240,787
Mountain Bob Henry Baber 3% 19,517
Total Votes 660,202
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2012 Election Statistics"

Demographics

Demographic data for West Virginia

West VirginiaU.S.
Total population:1,841,053316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):24,0383,531,905
Gender
Female:50.7%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:93.6%73.6%
Black/African American:3.3%12.6%
Asian:0.7%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:1.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85%86.7%
College graduation rate:19.2%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$41,751$53,889
Persons below poverty level:22.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in West Virginia.

As of July 2016, West Virginia's three largest cities were Charleston (pop. est. 49,138), Huntington (pop. est. 48,113), and Morgantown (pop. est. 30,855).