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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

THE SPIRIT OF ’68 — “Violent clash at DNC headquarters sparks concern over convention security,” by Shia Kapos: “A pro-Palestinian protest at Democratic Party headquarters in Washington, D.C., that turned violent is sending a jolt through political circles in Chicago.”

SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED — “Biden signs temporary spending bill averting government shutdown, pushing budget fight into new year,” by AP’s Colleen Long

WILL BIDEN BUCK THE SHADOW PARTY? — You have probably heard that President JOE BIDEN’s approval numbers aren’t so great.

But one of the most striking and consistent findings of 2023 polling is that voters give Biden especially poor marks for how he’s handling immigration, where his average approval rating is 34%.

A Marquette Law School poll released yesterday continues the trend. Asked which 2024 candidate would handle immigration better, Trump holds a 50% to 27% advantage over Biden among registered voters — the largest gap between the two candidates of all the issues tested, just as in numerous other polls this year.

The Biden campaign has a new plan to address this vulnerability: attack Trump’s extremist immigration policies.

The strategy was previewed in a report on Wednesday by CBS News: “Mr. Biden’s campaign aides are aiming to bring attention to what they see as the most draconian immigration policies Trump has promised to implement if elected again, hoping that his pledges to carry out mass deportations and end birthright citizenship will turn off Latinos and other key voters in 2024.”

Later that night in San Francisco Biden condemned recent comments by Trump calling his enemies “vermin” and accusing undocumented immigrants of “poisoning the blood of our country” using new and strident language.

“It echoes language you heard in Nazi Germany in the ’30s,” he said. “Folks, we can’t fail. We can’t fail to treat the threat that he poses.”

Biden aides can point to heaps of evidence in elections since 2020 that campaigning against MAGA extremism is the glue that holds the Biden coalition together. But there are outspoken critics who think it’s not enough and prefer to point not to 2020, but to 2016, when HILLARY CLINTON’s execution of the so-called “Orange Man bad” technique failed.

“What did [Hillary Clinton] run on?” asked RUY TEIXEIRA, co-author, with JOHN JUDIS, of the new book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” ($28.99), during an interview on this week’s Playbook Deep Dive podcast.

“It was all about how bad Donald Trump was, what a bad person he was, how sexist he was, how racist he was,” Teixeira said. “He talked about issues. You may not have liked how he talked about issues, and he may not have been very specific, but he talked about issues, whereas Hillary talked about Bad Orange Man.”

In 2002, Teixeira and Judis famously published “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” a book that seemed to predict the coalition of minorities, women, young people, knowledge workers and the party’s traditional working-class base that propelled BARACK OBAMA to the White House in 2008. Their new book, out this month, tries to explain why many of the working class voters in that coalition have since abandoned the Democrats, and the party’s handling of immigration policy tops their list of culprits.

Teixeira and Judis argue that progressives have become victim to what they call the “Fox News Fallacy” — that if the conservative media machine seizes on an issue, it must be illegitimate.

Teixeira sees it in the current immigration debate: “People streaming over the border who are not legal immigrants — this is not a good thing! … [Y]ou’re not going to persuade anybody against that point of view if you simply act like the problem doesn’t exist and this is all made up by the satanic, anti-democratic, quasi fascist people and the other side.”

Better, Teixeira said, for Biden to not just point to Trump’s alarming rhetoric but look for opportunities to stake out middle ground between the Trumpian right and the “cultural radicalism” of Biden’s own base. He’s missed a few, he added.

“He doesn’t talk about the Willow Project in Alaska,” Teixeira said. “They’ve allowed more oil and gas permits than any previous administration, and that’s a lot of the reason why the energy situation hasn’t gotten as dire. … But they never talk about it because they’re worried that if they do, the Shadow Party” — the Teixeira-Judis term for the progressive activists and institutions steering Democratic policy — ”will come down on them like a ton of bricks.”

The same thing happened on border security. “He did this thing recently where we’re going to allow a certain portion of the wall to be built between the U.S. and Mexico. But the immediate take on that was, ‘Well, you know, they forced me to do it. They put a gun to my head. It’s in the law.’ And they’re not going to talk about that. They’re not going to talk about border security.”

Pretty soon, though, Biden is going to have to talk about border security. And therein lies a big test for Biden and his strategists.

Biden wants $60 billion in aid for Ukraine before the end of the year, and Republicans in Congress are demanding border security provisions, including tightening asylum standards, in return. The White House has signaled it knows a deal is necessary.

Burgess Everett reported yesterday on the most likely kind of compromise that could emerge from the current Senate talks: “[S]ome negotiators aren’t envisioning a deal they expect would appeal to progressive Democrats or conservatives who oppose funding Ukraine at all. An ideal Senate bill, in their view, would pass the chamber via the center-left and the center-right.”

From the Teixeira-Judis view, the GOP is offering Biden a priceless opportunity: He unlocks aid to Ukraine, passes an immigration bill that he can campaign on to mitigate Trump’s biggest advantage, and he gets credit for another big bipartisan deal.

“That’ll be very interesting to see,” Teixeira said. “I’d do it. But I’m just a pointy-headed intellectual. Don’t listen to me.”

Listen to the full episode of this week’s Playbook Deep Dive

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest column: “After Oct. 7, Even DC Wonks Are Arming Themselves: Fears stemming from the attack on Israel are only the latest case of Beltway anxiety about political violence.”

WE’LL TAKE THAT PULITZER NOW — Sometimes, you get a tip that’s too bizarre to pass up. This is one of those times.

Wednesday night, after a full day of coverage of Sen. MARKWAYNE MULLIN’s (R-Okla.) near-fisticuffs with a Teamsters leader — and his subsequent unapologetic victory lap of media appearances — we got an email from former Rep. DAVID TROTT (R-Mich.), who served with Mullin in the House: “My wife and I have a story about Senator Mullin if you’re interested.”

Consider our interest piqued.

We called up the former congressman, who told us about an AIPAC-sponsored trip to Israel in August 2015 that he remembered about 40 members attending, plus many spouses. Among those spouses was his wife, KATHLEEN “KAPPY” TROTT.

At this point, he handed the phone over to Kappy. She told us about the flight to Israel, which was hampered by layovers and delays. Though they were promised a quick shower in the hotel upon arriving, that schedule was revised on the fly: Instead, they’d immediately board buses to see an Iron Dome installation and a kibbutz.

“We were in the clothes we’d been wearing for like 24 hours,” Kappy says. “We get on this bus, and it’s a couple-hour bus ride and people were kind of leaning on their spouse’s shoulder and falling asleep. And this idiot starts walking up and down the bus with his camera and anyone who fell asleep, he would put his finger in their nose and take a picture.”

“I said [to myself, ‘If] that idiot comes near me when I fall asleep, I’m going to punch him,’” Kappy told us. “And I said to Dave: ‘This is a U.S. congressman?’”

That congressman? Markwayne Mullin.

“Some people were mad, and some people were laughing. There were a couple of women who were mad,” Kappy said. “You’re trying to fall asleep, somebody you don’t know has his finger … It was just middle school. And we were in Israel, and we’re going to go see the Iron Dome and go to a kibbutz. Just didn’t seem appropriate.”

They said that Mullin’s recent round of publicity jostled their memory. Contemporary press reports verify that Mullin was, in fact, on this 2015 trip to Israel.

Playbook reached out to Mullin’s staff multiple times but didn’t hear back.

On the Hill

The Senate and the House are out.

What we’re watching … With the House and Senate both on recess for the first time since mid-September, we’ll be focusing our attention on one thing to watch each day until the chambers return after Thanksgiving. And, today, that one thing is clearly GEORGE SANTOS expulsion watch. House Ethics Chair MICHAEL GUEST (R-Miss.) is expected to file a privileged resolution to boot the New York Republican at today’s pro forma session, and while Speaker MIKE JOHNSON isn’t (yet) backing the effort, more than 40 Republicans have already indicated they’ll vote for it, per a POLITICO whip count.

At the White House

Biden is in San Francisco, where he’ll hold a bilateral meeting with Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR at 1 p.m. Eastern time and then host the APEC Leaders Retreat. Afterward, he’ll fly to Philadelphia, and then head to New Castle, Del., at night.

VP KAMALA HARRIS is in LA and has nothing on her public schedule.

On the trail

Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, NIKKI HALEY and VIVEK RAMASWAMY will be at the influential Family Leader Thanksgiving forum in Iowa today, where they’ll make a play for the evangelical vote — and the backing of BOB VANDER PLAATS, who tells CBS’ Aaron Navarro he’ll endorse by Christmas.

2024 WATCH

HALEY ASCENDANT — After Sen. TIM SCOTT’s (R-S.C.) exit from the presidential race, Haley is well positioned to capture some major financial backers as anti-Trump forces start to coalesce behind her. SPENCER ZWICK, ERIC LEVINE and CHAD WALLDORF, among others, are coming on board, CNN’s Fredreka Schouten reports, as Haley’s abortion position in particular appeals to some megadonors. Several people close to PAUL SINGER are also backing her, NBC/CNBC’s Matt Dixon, Brian Schwartz and Jonathan Allen report.

Has Haley figured out a key to taking on Trump? N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander writes in a new feature that Haley’s strategy of presenting a distinctive vision from Trump’s is paying off more than DeSantis’ “Trump lite” approach. (To that end, Haley yesterday rejected DeSantis’ suggestion of a two-person debate on the “Guy Benson Show.”) And Semafor’s Ben Smith revisits the ugly accusations of infidelity Haley faced in 2010, an episode that “suggests that she may be readier for the intensity of national politics than you might expect.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Upon his return from Israel on Monday, CHRIS CHRISTIE went to Dallas for a fundraiser hosted by SARAH and ROSS PEROT JR. Among the other donors there: GENE, CHARLOTTE and KAREN JONES, BRYAN BAILEY, DREW McKNIGHT, JAMES LITINSKY, JOHN TATUM, GLENN MARSHALL and BENNETT McEVOY.

More top reads:

• “How R.F.K. Jr. Has Turned His Public Crusades Into a Private Windfall,” by NYT’s Susanne Craig: “The causes ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. has championed have brought him admiration, criticism — and tens of millions of dollars.”
• “No Labels Says it Doesn’t Take Corporate Money, but Company Disclosures Show Otherwise,” by Sludge’s David Moore
• The Economist declared that Trump is the greatest threat to the world in 2024.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

ALL IN THE FAMILY — Special counsel DAVID WEISS’ team has subpoenaed JAMES BIDEN, the president’s brother, and others in the ongoing HUNTER BIDEN investigation, CNN’s Paula Reid, Evan Perez, Katelyn Polantz and Hannah Rabinowitz scooped. And prosecutors have a grand jury in LA for the probe, which seems to be primarily centered on Hunter Biden’s tax issues. That suggests Weiss “may be preparing to seek new charges against Hunter Biden,” on top of the gun charges the president’s son is already facing in Delaware.

More top reads:

• DAVID DePAPE was convicted of attacking PAUL PELOSI in federal court yesterday, with the jury finding him guilty of attempted kidnapping and assault, the S.F. Chronicle’s Annie Vainshtein reports. The notable political violence verdict could land DePape up to life in prison, and local prosecutors may try him as well.
• “The Supreme Court won’t allow Florida to enforce its new law targeting drag shows during appeal,” AP
• Nothing gold can stay: Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) is replacing ABBE LOWELL and his other defense lawyers with AVI WEITZMAN and a Paul Hastings team, The Messenger’s Darren Samuelsohn reports.

TRUMP CARDS

THE BUSINESS FRAUD CASE — An appeals court yesterday temporarily halted gag orders on Trump and his team in the NYC civil fraud trial — and they wasted little time in immediately attacking a law clerk to Judge ARTHUR ENGORON, NYT’s Jonah Bromwich and Alan Feuer report.

THE FULTON COUNTY CASE — Georgia judge SCOTT McAFEE yesterday put out a protective order in the wake of leaked “proffer” videos for some of Trump’s co-defendants, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s David Wickert reports. And NYT’s Richard Fausset takes a look at how elected Georgia Republicans are largely swatting down attempts to undermine DA FANI WILLIS, with the state’s establishment seeking to avoid a reputational hit.

THE CLASSIFIED DOCS CASE — Judge AILEEN CANNON rejected special counsel JACK SMITH’s attempt to start scheduling pre-trial discovery deadlines, indicating that the May 2024 trial start date may be in jeopardy, ABC’s Alexander Mallin and Katherine Faulders report.

POLICY CORNER

KNIVES OUT FOR MARTIN GRUENBERG — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chair’s week, already going poorly thanks to a WSJ investigation about toxic behavior at the agency, got even worse yesterday with the latest installment from Rebecca Ballhaus. This story says Gruenberg himself has “a reputation for bullying” and “an explosive temper”; that he can be a “micromanager” and a “screamer”; and that he has sometimes let staffers accused of misconduct get off easy. The agency says in response that it’s getting an outside review of its culture.

But the congressional pressure ramped up yesterday as a result of the Journal stories. Sens. JOHN KENNEDY (R-La.), THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) and JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) called on Gruenberg to resign, per Reuters’ Douglas Gillison. Democrats aren’t going there yet, but Senate Banking Chair SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) called the reports “extremely concerning,” along with similar comments from Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.). More from WSJ

CONGRESS

RETIREMENT WATCH — Could Rep. BILL JOHNSON (R-Ohio) become the next congressman to bow out of a reelection bid? Youngstown State University’s board of trustees voted yesterday to offer him the school’s presidency, per The Vindicator. Johnson said in a statement that he had only recently learned about the idea and may “have a very difficult decision to make.”

Meanwhile in Michigan, yesterday’s announcement that Democrat Rep. DAN KILDEE wouldn’t seek reelection is spurring lots of political intrigue in the swing district, which the Cook Political Report shifted to tossup. The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger and Beth LeBlanc run down several potential names to know on both sides of the aisle.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE — Rep. MAX MILLER (R-Ohio) lashed out at House Republicans’ decision to attach IRS cuts to an Israel aid bill, telling Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod that even though he voted for the package, pairing them was “disgusting,” “stupid” and “a gimmick.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Biden removes sanctions from Chinese institute in push for fentanyl help,” Reuters … “For Biden, a Subtle Shift in the Power Balance With China’s Xi Jinping,” NYT … “U.S. Executives Get No Reassurance From Xi on Tougher China Business Environment,” WSJ

THE ECONOMY

STRIKE WATCH — United Auto Workers members at Ford and Stellantis plants joined those working for General Motors in ratifying the contracts UAW secured with the Big Three automakers, NBC’s Marley Jay reports.

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Peter Baker, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Idrees Kahloon and Elaina Plott Calabro.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CNN “State of the Union”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Chris Christie. Panel: Carlos Curbelo, Stephanie Murphy and Ryan Nobles.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.).

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) … Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.).

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Mike Pompeo … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Panel: Josh Kraushaar, Karl Rove, Tiffany Smiley and Juan Williams.

ABC “This Week”: Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog … retired Adm. Mike Mullen. Panel: Selina Wang, Dan Balz, Juana Summers and David Sanger.

William Timmons is getting a primary challenger.

Steve Daines’ family is divided over the University of Montana vs. Montana State game.

John Boehner met Nicole Kidman.

Muhammad Mirza, Santos’ Botox doctor, suggests that looking better could help him at sentencing.

Is James Comey writing a murder mystery about Bridgewater?

IN MEMORIAM — “Peter Tarnoff, U.S. envoy who helped craft ‘Argo’ escape in Iran, dies at 86,” by WaPo’s Brian Murphy: “Mr. Tarnoff’s behind-the-scenes roles included secret trips to Cuba and the 1980 plan to bring six U.S. diplomats home from Iran posing as a film crew.”

— Paul Quinn, a longtime D.C. attorney and lobbyist who also played a behind-the-scenes role in the Northern Ireland peace process and died last month at 88, had a memorial service at the Irish ambassador’s residence Wednesday. The attendees included Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, Tom McMillen, John McCarthy, Erik Huey, Mike Ferrell, Pat Mulloy, Patrick Gorman, Francesca Craig, Kip O’Neill, David Leiter, Chris Matthews, Jake Seher, Stella O’Leary, Democrat Matt Gorman, Bob Crowe, Timothy O’Neill, William Tranghese and David Grimaldi.

OUT AND ABOUT — Last night, Richard Fowler, Christopher Huntley, Nii Quartelai Quartey, Daniel Roberts and Terrence Woodbury hosted a screening of Netflix’s “Rustin” at the Alamo Drafthouse. The sold-out event included remarks from film producer and writer Mark Wright, Julian Breece and Emil Wilbekin, plus a toast to the late Bayard Rustin hosted by Reginald Moore. SPOTTED: Eugene Scott, Gerren Gaynor, Anthony Coley, LaQuita Honeysucker, Paul Butler, Sean Mickens, Justice Ukadike, Florida state Sen. Shervin Jones, Jamal Watkins, Dominik Whitehead, Alix DeJean and Jasmine Wright.

— Reps. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) hosted the kickoff event of the DADS PAC on Wednesday night at Akin, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) attending as special guests. The new PAC backs congressional candidates who focus on policies that support working families. SPOTTED: Reps. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Lou Correa (D-Calif.), Jorge Aguilar, Jose Borjon, Andy Jones, Carlos Paz Jr., Howard Moon, Priya Dayananda and Dawn Huckelbridge.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Stef Webb is joining the National Association of Manufacturers as managing VP of government relations. She most recently was director of corporate affairs at Gopuff.

MEDIA MOVE — Dan Papscun is now antitrust correspondent at The Capitol Forum. He most recently was antitrust reporter at Bloomberg Law.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Marissa Pisarick has returned to the EPA to be an attorney-adviser. She most recently was detailed to the Office of General Counsel at the White House Council on Environmental Quality.

TRANSITIONS — Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) has staffed up her comms team with Audrey Lopez as comms director along with Alice Nam, Christyna Thompson, Mirella Manilla, Leslie Estrada and Christopher Lee, our California Playbook colleagues scooped. … Eric Hagopian is now chief information officer at Van Ness Feldman. He most recently was chief information and data officer at the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: John Boehner … Chris Stirewalt … former Sens. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) … Susan Rice … former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf … Terry Branstad … Howard Dean … Linda Moore of TechNet … Diana Aviv … POLITICO’s Jerome Baldwin … Helena Bottemiller Evich of Food Fix … Mike Ricci … Jarrod Agen of Lockheed Martin … Charmaine Yoest … Arielle Mueller of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) office … Brian Jones of Black Rock Group … White House’s Sonja Thrasher … Ahmad Ramadan … Camryn Anderson of Strategic Marketing Innovations … Halie Soifer of the Jewish Democratic Council of America … Intuit’s Paul Lindsay … Howard Fineman … Suzan G. LeVine … Jeff Watters of the Ocean Conservancy … Isaac Baker … Harry Jaffe … Ralph Posner … Erika Compart … S-3 Group’s Marty Reiser … Alex Gallo … Carly Montoya … TPM’s David Kurtz … Mike DeFilippis of Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ (R-N.Y.) office … Mike Maloof … FT’s Felicia Schwartz … Sarah Gibbens … DCCC’s Jonathan Cousimano … National Public Affairs’ Joey Rodriguez … Carlie Tianello of Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Texas) office … Kellie Boyle … Benji Easter of Sen. Mike Crapo’s (R-Idaho) office … Noah Oppenheim … MSNBC’s Lily Corvo

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter included an incorrect first name for Paul Singer.