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THE WEEK AHEAD — Today: Closing arguments expected to begin in E. JEAN CARROLL’s civil suit against DONALD TRUMP. Pulitzer Prize winners announced. … Tomorrow: President JOE BIDEN hosts congressional leaders for debt limit talks. … Wednesday: Labor Department issues new CPI inflation numbers. Trump appears at CNN town hall. … Thursday: Title 42 border protocol expires at 11:59 p.m. … Saturday: Iowa showdown, with Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS speaking in Cedar Rapids while Trump holds a rally in Des Moines. … Sunday: Mother’s Day.

BUCKLE UP — Between debt ceiling negotiations and the end of Title 42, the pandemic-era policy allowing the expulsion of migrants seeking asylum at the southern border, it’s going to be a volatile week in Washington and beyond.

The main event happens tomorrow at the White House, where Biden will host congressional leaders to discuss next steps on the debt ceiling. As we reported last week, there are reasons to treat Democratic leaders’ no-concessions posture with skepticism.

For one, some in their own rank and file are questioning their rejection of negotiations. And, what’s more, 43 Senate Republicans signed a letter over the weekend backing the House GOP’s demand for spending reforms as part of any deal — that’s more than enough to filibuster a clean hike.

But House Republicans have their own headaches to contend with, and this morning, we want to lay out how GOP leaders are managing the expectations game, both publicly and privately.

The key challenge McCarthy and his deputies face is to figure out a way to placate conservatives who have been pressing them to adopt a position that they privately believe is unrealistic. You’ll recall a key conservative, Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), told Playbook last month that McCarthy promised him and fellow hard-liners that he would oppose any debt ceiling bill that does not include all of the red-meat provisions that emerged from the House. (A McCarthy spokesperson did not deny the claim.)

PUBLICLY … Strategic ambiguity is driving the House leadership’s message. We caught up over the weekend with Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.), who simply refused to say if Republicans would be willing to narrow their list of demands in order to cut a deal with Democrats.

The burden is on the White House to negotiate, he said, and if they want changes to the House bill, McCarthy can bring those back for Republicans to mull over: “I can only say this so many times. … We passed a bill. Take the bill up and pass it. That is the message from House Republicans.”

Related read: “Why McConnell and McCarthy locked arms on the debt crisis,” by Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers

Pressed on other key questions, Emmer was similarly nonspecific. Would any debt limit deal win a majority of the GOP majority — historically a key threshold for party leaders? “We pass everything with Republican votes. That’s what we do.” Would he be able to keep five Republicans from breaking ranks and joining Democrats on a procedural dodge such as a discharge petition? “Gimmicks do not work in the House. … That’s not a solution.”

But Emmer notably dismissed an assertion, aired Friday in Punchbowl News, that the speaker would settle for a budget caps deal, some spending cuts and permitting reform — in other words, a much narrower deal than what passed the House.

“I wouldn’t trust any outlet like that to tell you what the Republican position is,” Emmer said of the reporting. “You’ve got our position. … It’s what we passed last week.”

PRIVATELY, however … Senior Republicans have been working in recent days to keep the conference’s expectations in check. At a GOP chiefs-of-staff retreat over the recess, we hear, senior aides devoted a session to discussing what would constitute a debt-limit “win” given that Democrats control the White House and the Senate.

The takeaway? Even if Republicans get only a small portion of the provisions in their own package, they should be celebrating.

“If a win is getting everything you ask for all the time, then it’s going to be very hard to win,” one senior GOP aide said, summarizing the discussion. “If you get permitting reform or work requirements — and you don’t get everything else — you can legitimately say that is a win.”

Driving the discussion were memories of previous debt ceiling standoffs — in which former Speakers JOHN BOEHNER and PAUL RYAN notched deals to cap discretionary spending but won only piddling policy concessions from President BARACK OBAMA. Given that history, the aide said, getting a permitting overhaul or another compromise “would be a big win for Kevin.”

As for the hard-right members who, like Norman, see the House bill as “a floor, not a ceiling,” the view in leadership circles is that those members would never support a negotiated deal anyway. Any promise, the aide added, was probably some combination of McCarthy being “clumsy” with his words and Norman “hearing what he wanted to hear.”

In the end, the aide predicted, the hard-liners would vote no but give McCarthy a pass and let enough Republicans join with Democrats to avoid a default: “They’ll probably grumble and put out a press release.”

REALITY CHECK … Defining success downward might make sense to the senior staffers who are trying to game their way through a rapidly escalating showdown with the global economy hanging in the balance. But it’s easy to see why it might not pass muster with conservative lawmakers who want to roll back broad swaths of Biden’s agenda — like student debt relief and green energy subsidies.

Settling for a deal on permitting reform, in particular — which many Democrats already support — isn’t likely to be seen as much of a win at all. And it’s important to remember that the House GOP of 2023 isn’t the House GOP of the Boehner and Ryan years.

Of the 79 Republicans who pushed through the last caps-and-debt-limit deal of the Obama years, only 25 remain in the House. Not only have many of those departed been replaced with further-right lawmakers, remember the context for the 2015 deal: It came only after Boehner retired under threat of revolt.

This time, GOP honchos are betting that a considerably more conservative conference will get behind a somewhat sweetened deal, all without angering the hard-right faction that has already threatened McCarthy’s gavel.

It’s a hell of a wager.

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THE OTHER BIG NEWS OF THE WEEK — While the border is more than a thousand miles away, expect the Title 42 deadline to drive conversation all week here in Washington.

Democrats are fretting that a sudden influx in migrants will make for terrible optics and boost GOP assertions that the border is spiraling into chaos. Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, who visited the border last week, notably used a recent “Meet the Press” appearance to raise alarms about a lack of resources, appearing to deflect any future blame to Congress:

“I just want to be clear that we are working within significant constraints,” he said. “We need people, we need technology, we need facilities, we need transportation resources, all of the elements of addressing the needs of a large population of people arriving irregularly at our southern border.”

House Republicans are expected to pass an immigration bill Thursday, the day Title 42 ends. The package would codify Trump’s immigration policies, including the “Remain in Mexico” policy requiring migrants to stay in Mexico while they appeal their cases. GOP leaders, we’re told, will likely whip the bill tomorrow night to ensure they have the 218 votes needed for passage.

While the package will go nowhere in the Democrat-controlled Senate, it would be a big win for House Republicans, who have tried and failed multiple times in recent years to unify conservatives and moderates behind an immigration proposal. House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE told Axios over the weekend that the legislation will constitute “the strongest border security package that Congress has ever taken up.”

Keep an eye on the Senate, though, where a bipartisan coalition has introduced a two-year patch extending removal powers. The proposal being led by Sens. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), as well as Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), won’t go anywhere this week. But if images of migrants massing at the border start to go viral, we could see the proposal gain more traction with Democrats.

Read up: “Restrictive border policy Title 42 ends this week but leaves imprint on future of asylum,” by the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kate Morrissey and Andrea Castillo

PHOTO OF THE DAY

2024 WATCH

THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET — Big GOP donors in the financial industry don’t want Trump to be the nominee — but they haven’t yet coalesced around an alternative, Sam Sutton and Ben White report this morning. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ recent stumbles have kept Wall Street open to other possibilities, though many donors and their advisers are also starting to see a Biden/Trump rematch as the likeliest outcome.

MR. CONGENIALITY — “Senators love Tim Scott, but they’re not ready to endorse him for president,” by NBC’s Scott Wong, Ali Vitali and Stephanie Ruhle

MORE POLITICS

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) may be the most endangered incumbent in the 2024 cycle, but Republicans are still hoping that he retires, viewing the contest to unseat him as “treacherous,” Holly Otterbein and Ally Mutnick report from White Sulphur Springs this morning. National Republicans got their ideal recruit in Gov. JIM JUSTICE — but they’ve also watched Manchin fly above political gravity multiple times before. “Manchin isn’t quite being left for dead yet.”

2023 WATCH — “Kentucky GOP aims for strong matchup versus Dem Gov. Beshear,” by AP’s Bruce Schreiner in Liberty: Republican voters in the Bluegrass State “say they are basing decisions in the May 16 primary mostly on which Republican would pose the toughest challenge to Democratic Gov. ANDY BESHEAR.”

CONCEALED KARI — “Arizona Republicans are skeptical Kari Lake will run for Senate, but national GOP is worried,” by the Washington Examiner’s Samantha-Jo Roth

BIG READ — “Indoctrination Nation,” by N.Y. Mag’s Jonathan Chait: “Convinced that teachers are brainwashing children to be left-wing ideologues, conservatives are quickly grabbing control of the American classroom.”

TRUMP CARDS

THE TRUMP RAPE TRIAL — “Trump will not testify in E. Jean Carroll battery trial,” by CNN’s Kara Scannell

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

TEXAS TRAGEDIES — Texas officials yesterday identified the gunman who murdered eight people at an Allen outlet mall before being killed as MAURICIO GARCIA, a local 33-year-old with no history of incarceration in the state, per The Dallas Morning News’ Michael Williams, Kyle Arnold and Maggie Prosser. Police said he acted by himself.

It’s still early in the investigation, so too soon to draw many conclusions. But WaPo’s Jack Douglas, Marisa Iati, Brittany Shammas, Devlin Barrett, Justin Wm. Moyer, Molly Hennessy-Fiske, Perry Stein and Maham Javaid report that investigators are looking into Garcia’s “apparent fascination with white supremacist or neo-Nazi beliefs” and treating it as a possible hate crime. He was wearing a patch with an acronym standing for “Right Wing Death Squad.” CNN’s Josh Campbell adds that investigators have found his social media, including “neo-Nazi and White supremacist-related posts, and images that authorities believe he shared online.”

Just a day after the Allen massacre, tragedy struck again on the other side of Texas, as a vehicle plowed into a crowd at a bus stop outside a migrant shelter in Brownsville, killing eight people. Nine more were hospitalized. KRGV-TV’s Sthefany Rosales reports that authorities have arrested the driver, a Hispanic male Brownsville resident. Most of the victims were migrants trying to travel to their final destinations in the U.S. from the border city. But police have yet to conclude whether the incident was intentional (or what the motivation was, if so); the man is charged just with reckless driving at the moment.

Related read: “Uvalde teacher who survived the mass shooting feels ‘abandoned’ by the school district,” by NBC’s Alicia Victoria Lozano: “ARNULFO REYES told his 11 students to play dead when a gunman entered his classroom and started firing. He was the only survivor in room 111.”

AILING AMERICA — “Lines Stretch Down the Block at Food Banks as Costs Go Up and Pandemic Aid Expires,” by Bloomberg’s Mike Dorning: “Many more Americans now are going hungry than at the peak of the pandemic aid.”

ABORTION APOSTATE — “A GOP Nebraska lawmaker chose his voters over his party with abortion vote,” by WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz and Sabrina Rodríguez in Omaha: State Sen. MERV “RIEPE’s vote reflects a growing realization among some Republicans that staking out extreme positions on abortion might be politically perilous.”

POLICY CORNER

CASH FOR CANCELLATIONS — “Biden proposes airlines cover passenger expenses for canceled flights,” by WaPo’s Ian Duncan: “The president is set to announce Monday that the Department of Transportation is launching an effort to set new rules that would guarantee compensation when disruptions occur that are under airlines’ control, the White House said.

“The administration has not outlined specifics of the proposal and it would probably be months, if not years, before such a rule went into force. But with current aviation rules only requiring refunds, a compensation rule would mark a major shift in how the Department of Transportation regulates air travel, and any proposal is likely to be opposed by the industry.”

WHEN THE SHIPS ARE DOWN — “After a 35-year break, the U.S. Navy is building frigates again, and it has a lot of catching up to do,” by Insider’s Benjamin Brimelow: “To realize its ambitions for the Constellation class, the Navy is applying hard lessons it has learned from recent high-profile warship programs that have cost too much, taken too long, or done too little.”

DRUG PRICE GRIPES — “Something Congress Might Agree On: Tackling Drug Costs,” by WSJ’s Stephanie Armour and Liz Essley Whyte: “Passage could be difficult, especially given party differences. And some powerful healthcare companies, which own PBMs [pharmacy-benefit managers], are trying to fend off many of the measures. Yet analysts expect some sort of legislation will make it, because surveys show voters of all kinds agree that drugs cost too much and lawmakers seeking re-election could benefit by pointing to a new law addressing the popular issue.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE NEGOTIATIONS QUESTION — More than ever before, U.S. and European allies of Kyiv are starting to entertain the possibility that Russia and Ukraine could begin negotiations later this year — with China playing a role, WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski, Laurence Norman and Vivian Salama report. “The willingness to encourage negotiations and seek out a role for China in talks represents a shift in Western thinking, particularly in the U.S.” They aren’t sure if Russia would be willing to broach a cease-fire, but Ukraine’s forthcoming spring offensive could pave the way for talks, Western officials think.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE LATEST MEGALEAK SHOCKER — After a massive earthquake devastated Turkey and Syria, Iran smuggled weapons in among humanitarian aid to the region that have helped fuel attacks on U.S. forces in Syria, WaPo’s Alex Horton, Mustafa Salim and Steve Hendrix report. That revelation comes from the leaked U.S. intelligence documents, which “raise dire questions about the ability of the United States and its allies to intercept Iranian-sourced arms used routinely to target American personnel, partner forces and civilians in the Middle East.” Iran has previously denied doing so when Reuters reported similar allegations.

HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY — “U.S. Moves to Lower a Bureaucratic Hurdle for Americans Held in Hostile Nations,” by WSJ’s Louise Radnofsky

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “U.S. Sanctions Drive Chinese Firms to Advance AI Without Latest Chips,” by WSJ’s Karen Hao in Hong Kong and Raffaele Huang in Singapore … “U.S. Think Tank Reports Prompted Beijing to Put a Lid on Chinese Data,” by WSJ’s Lingling Wei

THE ECONOMY

BANK ON IT — “Bank Stocks Nearing a Crisis-Era Threshold Raises Warning Sign,” by Bloomberg’s Jess Menton, Elena Popina and Breanna Bradham: “[I]nvestors have pummeled financial stocks, leaving the S&P 500 financials index on the verge of falling back below its 2007 peak.”

GETAWAY CAR — “New cars, once part of the American Dream, now out of reach for many,” by WaPo’s Rachel Siegel and Jeanne Whalen

MEDIAWATCH

TUCKER’S NEXT MOVE — TUCKER CARLSON wants to start working for a right-wing Fox News competitor, or perhaps launch one of his own, but his Fox contract prevents him from doing so for the next year and a half. So Carlson is preparing for his allies to start going after his former employer “to bully the network” into letting him out of the contract, Axios’ Mike Allen reports. “We’re going from peacetime to Defcon 1,” one close friend says.

Tony Russo, Fred Eames, Nat Hoopes and plenty of big D.C. names lead GolfDigest’s ranking of the top 100 golfers in D.C.

James Comey saw a cow on Interstate 80.

Henry Kissinger, a few weeks from 100, is skeptical of old people running for president: “There’s some advantages in maturity. There are dangers in exhaustion, and a limited capacity to work.”

AND THE AWARD GOES TO — The Partnership for Public Service today is announcing the finalists for this year’s Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals (Sammies), often described as the Oscars for federal public servants. The 27 finalists have worked on achievements ranging from the Air Force’s innovation arm to the release of American hostages held in Russia and Venezuela to implementing the bipartisan infrastructure law. Read the full list here

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Capitol Hill Club on Friday for Ninio Fetalvo’s 30th birthday gala, benefiting March of Dimes: Raj Shah, Cassie Smedile Docksey, Mike Joyce, Caroline Anderegg, T.W. Arrighi, Kelly Laco and Ben Steinhafel, Ali and Michael Black, Brent and Cassie Scher, Igor Bobic and Valerie Chicola, Courtney Johnson, Tom Brandt, Johanna Persing, Kaily Grabemann, Carly Eason, Emma Vaughn, Harry Fones, Nadgey Louis-Charles, Taylor and Tyler Mason, Ty Bofferding, Natalie Short, Christi Cameron, Casey Nelson, Sophie Seid, Dave Vasquez and Tamika Hawkins.

— SPOTTED at a U.S.-Mexico Foundation-Avisa Partners-Constellation Brands Cinco de Mayo event at Avisa’s Georgetown office Friday evening: Enrique Perret, Omar Vargas, Jeff Berkowitz, Brent Buchanan and Eddie Garcia.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Dean Lieberman has been named deputy national security adviser to the VP for strategic comms and speechwriting. He previously was a special adviser and foreign policy speechwriter in Harris’ office and is an NSC alum.

— Equis is adding Nery Espinosa as SVP of partnerships and comms and Elis Ribeiro as chief of finance, administration and operations. Espinosa previously was VP at Newco Strategies, and is a Raben Group alum. Ribeiro previously was chief of staff and COO at House Majority PAC.

TRANSITIONS — Benjamin Schwartz is now director of national security and head of the Chips program office’s national security division at the Department of Commerce. He previously was a senior director at Infineon Technologies. … Scott Luginbill is now VP of Penta Policy Insiders at Penta. He previously was incumbent retention director at the NRCC. …

… Emma Tyler is now deputy associate administrator for House affairs at EPA. She previously was an associate director for governmental affairs at DOT. … Valerie Green is now a managing director at Laurel Strategies. She previously was EVP and chief legal officer at Ligado Networks and is an Obama White House alum.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Matt Breen, a senior director at Oliver Wyman, and Liz Beadle, a managing director at FGS Global, got married Saturday at Our Lady of the Holy Souls Catholic Church in Little Rock, Ark., followed by a reception at Moss Mountain Farm. Guests also enjoyed a welcome party Friday night at the Clinton Presidential Library & Museum. Pic

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): The 19th’s Grace Panetta

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Dale Strong (R-Ala.) … Bill de Blasio … White House’s Ami Fields-Meyer … AP’s Chris Megerian … John Martin … McClatchy’s Dave Catanese … CNN’s Ed Meagher … John Stirrup … Herald Group’s Ashley Pratte Oates … Melissa Moss of Moss Advisors … Stephen Peters … Anheuser-Busch’s Meghan DiMuzio … Qorvis’ Grace Fenstermaker … GMMB’s Anson Kaye … Miranda Peterson … Penta’s André Bransford … Guidehouse’s Cooper Smith … Tom McCuin … Amy Little Thomas … former Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.) … Cathy Duvall … Arena’s J. Peter Donald

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