Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

JUST POSTED — A new NBC/Des Moines Register poll finds DONALD TRUMP still cruising in Iowa, having amassed the largest lead ever recorded at this point in a competitive GOP race in the history of ANN SELZER’s famed Hawkeye State survey. Trump is at 51%, with Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS at 19% and NIKKI HALEY at 16%.

MERRY IMPEACHMAS — The House Republican push to impeach President JOE BIDEN hasn’t exactly been at the center of Washington’s drama this year. Heck, amid endless government funding brawls, an ousted speaker, and everything GEORGE SANTOS, impeachment has barely nicked the outer circles of relevance in the House itself.

That pattern is likely to hold this week: With just four more session days scheduled this year, most eyes are going to be on the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act, the fate of an expiring surveillance program and, of course, tomorrow’s in-person visit from Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, who will make a last-ditch appeal for U.S. aid.

But it’s worth paying close attention to the impeachment vote coming to the House floor later this week. The resolution to formalize the House GOP’s Biden inquiry is the procedural equivalent of pouring gasoline on a fire.

The move will put lawmakers on record — including those Republicans in Biden-won districts who previously balked at a vote — and put the House on a clear trajectory toward impeachment itself. People close to the probe tell us the vote will jumpstart a series of high-profile hearings early next year that could — and probably will — lead to a Senate trial smack in the middle of the presidential election.

Here are three dynamics to watch as the impeachment push heats up:

— THE MATH: It wasn’t long ago that swing-district Republicans resisted taking a vote to establish an impeachment inquiry, forcing then-Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY to simply announce one on his own. But GOP leaders have been slowly chipping away at the skeptics and are now confident they’ll get the votes this week, as our colleagues Jordain Carney, Olivia Beavers and Anthony Adragna write this morning.

From the story: “A whip count compiled by POLITICO shows that a single Republican, Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), opposes a vote scheduled for this week to formalize the impeachment inquiry. Other members thought to be on the fence are now either supportive or likely to support it, according to the tally, including a majority of Republicans who represent districts Biden carried in 2020.”

It’s not a done deal yet. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON only has a three-vote margin, and there are still about a half-dozen fence-sitters who haven’t weighed in. But, by and large, the impeachment skeptics have warmed to the argument that a formal inquiry will help to compel cooperation from the White House and Biden family.

“The president is saying he isn’t going to provide information until we get an inquiry, so I went from a no to a yes,” Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), told our colleagues.

Take note of some convenient timing: House investigators have summoned HUNTER BIDEN to appear Wednesday for a closed-door interview. The younger Biden, in turn, has suggested he’ll only testify publicly, so it’s not clear if he will comply. The unspoken truth is that some GOP investigators don’t actually want him to show up; they want to use a snub to rally the rank-and-file behind the inquiry.

— DUE PROCESS: During DONALD TRUMP’s 2019 impeachment, Republicans harped on House Democrats for breaking with prior impeachment precedents that allowed the accused to call witnesses and summon evidence. Instead, Democrats gave their Judiciary Committee chairman, Rep. JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.), authority to revoke those due process rights if Trump blocked witnesses from testifying.

Democrats hoped that might force Trump to stop stonewalling. Instead, it fueled the GOP’s outrage over what they called an unfair and corrupt process, with party leadership using the Democrats’ insistence on “discretionary” due process to whip the final Republican holdouts against supporting the inquiry.

Fast forward: The inquiry resolution that will be marked up in the House Rules Committee tomorrow and hit the floor later this week contains no mention of due process rights for the president. And we’ve yet to see any accompanying document laying them out.

We reached out to the investigative committees last night and didn’t get a clear answer about whether or not Biden will have the right to call witnesses and present evidence. Republicans, we’re told, are now discussing whether they ought to mimic the Democrats and throw the rulebook out the window, with more information on the process coming soon.

On one hand, turnabout is fair play, and it’s not as though any Democrats will be voting for the inquiry. On the other, Democrats stand ready to weaponize any GOP hypocrisy as they take aim at what one Democrat recently called a “joke of an impeachment.”

— ENFORCING SUBPOENAS: It hasn’t received a lot of attention, but Republicans are preparing two resolutions related to the Biden impeachment for floor action this week.

The first covers inquiry procedures, as mentioned above. But the other authorizes investigative chairmen to enforce their subpoenas — that is, by asking judges to force obstinate witnesses to testify.

It’s a sign that Republicans are girding for court battles. One Republican, in fact, suggested to us that Hunter Biden could be held in contempt of Congress as soon as this week if he refuses to show for his subpoenaed deposition.

Enforcing that contempt resolution would require convincing the Justice Department to file charges against the younger Biden, which is almost certainly not going to happen — particularly since he offered through his attorney to testify in public. But Republicans could explore civil proceedings to force compliance with the subpoena, as has been done in the past, or they could dust off Congress’ long-dormant “inherent contempt” powers.

Students of the Trump impeachments will recall that Democrats toyed around with deploying those theoretical congressional powers to fine noncooperative witnesses, but then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI never green-lit the idea. Now, we’re told, Republicans are toying with the idea themselves.

BIDEN’S MOMENT ON ANTI-SEMITISM? — The White House kept silent over the weekend as the uproar over three college presidents’ congressional testimony last week culminated in the resignation of University of Pennsylvania President LIZ MAGILL, the leader of an institution to which Biden has close and longstanding ties. Two events today could offer him an opportunity to weigh in on the fracas, sparked after Magill and the presidents of Harvard and MIT all failed to clearly denounce calls for Jewish genocide.

Biden will travel to Philadelphia, UPenn’s home, later today for an event announcing a major federal grant for the city’s fire department. Among the dignitaries joining Biden will be Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, who helped precipitate Magill’s resignation by quickly condemning her comments as “unacceptable” and “shameful.” (One Democratic operative we spoke to, in fact, called Shapiro “the big winner, if there is one” of the episode, as “the one who put the shiv into [Magill’s] back and got the whole process going for her to go.”)

Later tonight, the president and first lady JILL BIDEN will host nearly 800 guests at the White House for a Hanukkah reception — a group that will include Holocaust survivors, elected officials, entertainers and Jewish religious leaders. Second Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF, who spoke out last week in similar terms as Shapiro, will attend and participate in a menorah lighting alongside descendants of Holocaust survivors. Biden, meanwhile, is expected to deliver remarks on “how Hanukkah is a timeless story of miracles, and that even in dark times we can find the light.”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Zelenskyy meets with Biden and congressional leaders. November inflation figures released. Biden attends a D.C. fundraiser. … Wednesday: Fed’s Open Market Committee meets on interest rates. Biden meets with the National Infrastructure Advisory Council. Trump holds a “Commit to Caucus” event in Coralville, Iowa. CHRIS CHRISTIE holds a town hall in Londonderry, New Hampshire. … Thursday: House and Senate set to recess until Jan. 8. … Friday: Biden travels to Wilmington, Delaware, for the weekend. …Saturday: 250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. Trump holds a campaign rally in Durham, New Hampshire.

On the Hill

The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several bills, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up several bills, including Section 702 reforms in the FISA reauthorization.

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up RICHARD FEDERICO’s judicial nomination.

3 things to watch …

1. Will SHEILA JACKSON LEE seek a 16th term in the House? The Texas Democrat fell well short in Saturday’s mayoral runoff in Houston, but she has until 6 p.m. today to file papers to seek re-election in the House. If she runs again, she’s in for a primary battle: Former Houston City Council member AMANDA EDWARDS says she’s staying in the race no matter what the incumbent decides.
   
2. There are bipartisan concerns over the renewal of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, but Biden administration officials are now aiming to rally Democrats against some of the most far-reaching proposed changes. Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES, NSA Director PAUL NAKASONE and Deputy AG LISA MONACO, among others, are set to brief House Democrats this evening about “grave concerns” about a Judiciary Committee bill that will be up for a floor vote Tuesday. That bill, an administration official tells our Jordain Carney, “would eviscerate the national security value of the cornerstone intelligence tool” known as Section 702.
   
3. Ahead of Zelenskyy’s Capitol Hill visit tomorrow, things appear no closer to a breakthrough in the intertwined border policy talks. Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) said GOP demands on the subject are “unreasonable” in an interview yesterday with NBC’s Meet the Press, adding, “If I were a cynic, I would say that Republicans have decided to tie support for Ukraine to immigration reform, because they want Ukraine aid to fail. But I’m not a cynic.”

At the White House

Biden will head to Philadelphia, where he’ll speak at 12:30 p.m. to celebrate the announcement of a big grant award to fund the city’s fire department. He’ll attend a campaign reception before returning to the White House, where he and first lady JILL BIDEN will host a Hanukkah holiday reception in the evening.

WAR IN UKRAINE

ZELENSKYY’S LAST STAND IN D.C. — Zelenskyy’s surprise trip to Washington will include a White House visit with Biden, plus meetings on both sides of the Hill — an all-senators meeting plus a one-on-one with Johnson. This is likely his final chance to sway Congress to vote for an aid package before the holidays, Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett write, as Ukraine supporters warn the battlefield effort could be in trouble without more assistance. But Hill Republicans have tied that aid to a negotiation on major immigration policy changes that “appeared stuck on Sunday.” Meanwhile, allies of authoritarian Hungarian PM VIKTOR ORBÁN will be in D.C. today and tomorrow for a Heritage Foundation event that will aim to sway Republicans against supporting Ukraine, The Guardian’s Flora Garamvolgyi and David Smith report.

MEDIAWATCH

THE NEXT BIG THING? — “Tucker Carlson Is Launching His Own Streaming Service,” by WSJ’s Isabella Simonetti and Keach Hagey: “The service, TUCKER CARLSON Network, is expected to go live on Monday … It will be home to at least five different shows by midweek, [sources] said, including interviews, short-form videos and monologues. Tucker Carlson Network, whose logo resembles a red pill, will cost $9 a month — or $72 a year — and will initially be solely available through Carlson’s website.”

Involved in TCN: chief executive NEIL PATEL, president JUSTIN WELLS and advertising sales from Red Seat Ventures.

2024 WATCH

THE END OF REALITY — “NBC News demands Trump campaign take down fake clip of reporter,” by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Max Tani: “The video in question, shared by a top Trump adviser, opens with authentic footage of NBC News senior Capitol Hill correspondent GARRETT HAAKE previewing the debate for the network. It soon cuts to video of each candidate as a voiceover — in Haake’s voice — makes disparaging comments about the candidates.” Semafor reports that the video, which is from last month, seems to be an artificial-intelligence-generated fake; the Trump campaign called it a parody.

HALEY’S STRATEGY — “Nikki Haley’s New Hampshire bank shot,” by Axios’ Stef Kight, Erin Doherty and Hans Nichols: “The soft money flowing into New Hampshire on behalf of Nikki Haley has a hard target: independent voters. … The plan is to take ‘a very targeted surgical approach’ to juicing independent turnout.”

DeSANTIS’ PITCH — DeSantis stepped up his criticisms of Trump over the weekend as he tries to catch the frontrunner. On the trail, he leaned into an argument that a Trump nomination would juice the Democratic base and motivate liberals to turn out against him, per ABC’s MaryAlice Parks.

And on X yesterday, he blasted Trump for saying that his decision to debate HILLARY CLINTON after the “Access Hollywood” tape made him braver than the troops: “Debating isn’t ‘brave’; it’s the bare minimum any candidate should do. Hiding from debates, on the other hand, is an example of cowardice.”

SPORTS BLINK — It used to be an ironclad rule of New Hampshire politics not to schedule a campaign event during a New England Patriots game. But the team has gotten so bad that some candidates are reconsidering, Lisa Kashinsky reports.

TRUMP CARDS

CHANGING HIS MIND — In an abrupt switch, Trump announced yesterday on Truth Social that he won’t be testifying again in his defense at the civil fraud trial against him, which had been slated for today, per CNN’s Jeremy Herb and Kara Scannell. That paves the way for the trial to conclude quickly this week; Judge ARTHUR ENGORON’s decision, which could threaten Trump’s business career in New York and his reputation, is expected next year.

One of Trump’s attorneys had previously questioned the wisdom of him testifying while under a gag order in the case, even though the mandate not to attack court staff wouldn’t have affected the substance of his testimony. Lawyer CHRIS KISE said yesterday they’d already made their case.

ANTIFREEZE — Special counsel JACK SMITH’s team asked Judge TANYA CHUTKAN to reject Trump’s effort to freeze his election subversion case as an appeal about his criminal immunity proceeds, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report: “The outcome of this fight may determine whether Trump faces any of his four pending criminal trials in 2024.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST CATASTROPHE — “Hunger, thirst and chaos in southern Gaza as hostilities drive humanitarian aid to the brink of collapse,” by NBC’s Yasmine Salam: “Aid agencies describe ‘apocalyptic’ scenes as families roam the streets unable to find food, people ration dirty water, and flour prices soar.”

— “U.S. seeking partners to safeguard ships after Red Sea attacks,” by WaPo’s Dan Lamothe and Kareem Fahim: “The Biden administration’s plan is to expand Combined Task Force 153, a military unit focused on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.”

MORE POLITICS

EXCLUSIVE ENDORSEMENT I — KARI LAKE has landed her second endorsement from a sitting senator, Ally Mutnick reports. Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) is backing her GOP bid for Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA’s (I-Ariz.) seat, calling her “the fighter Arizona needs.” Lake nabbed her first Senate endorsement earlier this year from GOP Conference Chair JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.), a key establishment validator.

EXCLUSIVE ENDORSEMENT II — Rep. LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER’s Delaware Senate bid is getting support from House Democratic leadership: Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, Minority Whip KATHERINE CLARK (D-Mass.) and Democratic Caucus Chair PETE AGUILAR (D-Calif.) are all endorsing the frontrunner. “At a time of incessant political discord, Lisa is a much-needed force of unity and consensus-building,” Jeffries said in a statement.

POLICY CORNER

BIG INVESTIGATION — The U.S. Postal Service is pushing its workers to move more quickly even as rising temperatures endanger their health — leading to allegations that the agency broke its own policies and tried to cover up one mail carrier’s heat-related death, POLITICO’s E&E News’ Ariel Wittenberg reports this morning after a three-month investigation. Such alleged violations have cropped up across the country, with the union accusing USPS of falsifying thousands of workers’ records of heat safety training.

“The controversy comes as the Postal Service faces intense pressure to deliver mail more quickly to compete with Amazon and other shipping services. But as climate change turbocharges summer heat and humidity, the conflicting priorities of speed and safety sometimes collide.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

BORDER SONG — “Smugglers are bringing migrants to a remote Arizona border crossing, overwhelming US agents,” by AP’s Anita Snow in Lukeville: “A shift in smuggling routes has brought an influx of migrants here from countries as diverse as Senegal, Bangladesh and China, prompting the Border Patrol to seek help from other federal agencies.”

AMERICAN VIOLENCE — “The Guns Were Said to Be Destroyed. Instead, They Were Reborn,” by NYT’s Mike McIntire: “Communities across the U.S. are fueling a secondary arms market by giving seized and surrendered guns to disposal services that destroy one part and resell the rest.”

FUTURE-CASTING — “Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon pursues green, carbon-negative agenda in one of the nation’s reddest states,” by CBS’ Bill Whitaker on “60 Minutes”

Joe Biden went to a shiva for Norman Lear.

Lindsey Graham went to the Doha Forum.

Vivek Ramaswamy reached new levels of, uh, transparency.

George Santos’ Cameo money paid for the tab at a hang with Lauren Boebert and Byron Donalds.

TRANSITIONS — Taylor Hulsey is now comms director for Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.). He most recently led comms for Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) and is a Rick Scott alum. … Mary Lee Watts is now VP for government affairs and policy for the American Clinical Laboratory Association. She most recently was director of federal affairs at the American Society for Microbiology.

OUT AND ABOUT — MSNBC Host Symone Sanders Townsend celebrated her birthday with a private hibachi dinner for 40, complete with a live saxophone player playing R&B hits through the night. SPOTTED: Shawn Townsend, Maude Okrah Hunter, Lamont Akin, Minyon Moore, Tanya Lombard, Tammy Haddad, John McCarthy, Mandela Barnes, Vincent Evans, Rohini Kosoglu, Rachel Scott, Kevin Young, DeUndre Eberhart, Kimberly Hunt and Crystal Carson.

ENGAGED — Naomi Zeigler, legislative specialist at the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration and a Biden OMB alum, and John Nagle, legislative assistant to Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), got engaged Saturday at the D.C. War Memorial. Both American University alums, they met in 2021 via mutual friend Dan Savickas. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED at the engagement party at the Dubliner: Brian Papp, Laura Pastre, Elisabeth Coats, David Martin, Shane Waller, Caitlin McKeon, Katie Roback, Peter Vicenzi, Dan and Hannah Savickas, Carlos Ochoa, Dwayne Clark, Avery Pierson, Krista Chavez, Frankie Hill, Robbie Rosamelia, Jordan Brewer and Alex Perez.

WEDDINGS — Riley Althouse, senior director at Dezenhall Resources, and Gary Beck, executive director of federal affairs at AHIP, got married Saturday at Our Lady of Mount Carmel Catholic Church in Carmel, Indiana. Pic … Another pic

— Zack Cohen, national security and justice reporter at CNN, and Catherine Valentine, head of politics at Substack and a WaPo and CNN alum, got married recently at Pippin Hill in Charlottesville, Virginia. Alex Marquardt officiated. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Vivian Salama and Jon Goodrich, Amanda McClements, Mike and Carolyn Callahan, Ryan Nobles, Josh Dawsey, Katie Bo and Mike Lillis, Jeremy Herb and Jill Colvin, Kevin Cirilli, Courtney Clawson, Valeska Williams, Lauren Toms, Jason Seher, Drew Robinson, and Lauren French and Jake Wilkins.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alex Schriver, SVP of public affairs at PhRMA, and Tracey Schriver, SVP for membership and events at the Bank Policy Institute, on Friday welcomed Collins Alexandra Schriver, who came in at 8 lbs., 13 oz and 18 inches and joins big sister Virginia. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry (8-0) … Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) … Kara Swisher … PBS’ Margaret Hoover … SiriusXM’s Julie Mason … WaPo’s Marianne LeVine, Elizabeth Dwoskin and Annabelle Timsit … DOJ’s Perry Rosen … Molly Abboud … Helen Robins … John Feehery of EFB Advocacy (6-0) … Emily Buchanan … Megan Capiak … Michael Allen of Beacon Global Strategies … Elizabeth Spiers … Benjamin Tribbett … Atlantic Council’s William Wechsler … Maya Krishna-Rogers … Josh Jaye of the Tax Foundation … Len Khodorkovsky … Haydn Welch … Impactual’s Ashley Spillane … Peter True … former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) … Rebecca Brocato … Phillip Escoriaza … POLITICO’s Sarah Morgan and Aaron Albright … Gideon Resnick

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.