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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

THE WEEK AHEAD — Today: President JOE BIDEN hosts NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG at the White House. … Tomorrow: DONALD TRUMP is arraigned on 37 federal counts in Miami. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May inflation numbers. … Wednesday: Fed meets on interest rates; Chair JEROME POWELL holds a news conference after. … Thursday: Supreme Court releases decisions. Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ addresses his 2024 plans at the Reagan Library in California. … Friday: More Supreme Court decisions expected. MIKE PENCE headlines the Gridiron Men’s Conference in Huntsville, Ala. … Saturday: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS headlines the annual Basque Fry in Gardnerville, Nev.

NEW THIS MORNING — Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER today is officially launching her Fight Like Hell PAC, which she’ll use to raise money for Democratic candidates from the Biden reelect on down the ticket.

GROUNDHOG DAY IN THE HOUSE — The seismic news surrounding Trump’s federal indictment last week upended the political world — and quickly overshadowed the embarrassing spectacle playing out on the House floor.

To recap: House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY was forced to send his members home early after a splinter group of 11 conservative hard-liners, days after being steamrolled by the bipartisan debt-ceiling deal, essentially hijacked the floor by voting down a House rule for the first time in two decades.

The group’s gripes have been hard to pin down, with wide-ranging accusations of broken promises and strong-arm tactics aimed at various GOP leaders. But the upshot of their protest is simple: McCarthy cannot move any significant legislation across the House floor until the rebel faction is brought back into the fold.

And as of this morning, there’s no sign that has happened. The hard-liners are still grumbling and are considering tanking more bills teed up for floor action this week. Said one senior GOP aide to Playbook last night: “I’m not going into this week assuming that any of the rules will pass.”

We heard much the same from one of the 11 rebels last night. “We could be sitting here all week just twiddling our thumbs,” Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) told us.

‘THEY NEED TO COOL IT’: Burchett’s role in the revolt is noteworthy because he’s far from McCarthy’s worst nightmare. He consistently backed McCarthy for speaker back in January, he’s not a member of the ever-restive Freedom Caucus, and he has kept his criticism focused on policies, not on personalities.

But he’s still smarting over the debt-ceiling deal, and he’s not ready to look past his concerns yet. “I just feel like we gave too much,” he said. “Conservatives aren’t represented at the table, fiscal conservatives, when the decisions are being made.”

Any solution, he said, lies with McCarthy — and he’s pushing for a group meeting between the speaker and his critics. While McCarthy has met with and spoken to a few of the 11, Burchett said, “That divide-and-conquer stuff just isn’t working.”

“I just wish we could put all the egos aside and just come down here and meet,” he said. “I just feel like it needs to be McCarthy … not a bunch of the ‘advisers’ or whatever. Not one on one, but all at once, and just listen to what they say for 30 minutes.”

Burchett is among those grumbling about leadership’s alleged arm-twisting and retaliatory threats aimed at the conservative dissidents. Tongues wagged last week over reports that Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE threatened to keep a bill sponsored by hard-right Rep. ANDREW CLYDE (R-Ga.) off the floor amid the debt-limit wrangle. Scalise denied the report, and Clyde’s bill — which would overturn a Biden administration firearms rule — is scheduled for a vote this week.

But Burchett said he was concerned about an entirely separate episode of intimidation he witnessed, one that didn’t involve Scalise at all, but someone he called “the chairman” whom he refused to identify further.

“It just needs to stop,” he said. “Everybody has a cellphone and everybody’s capable of recording these things — and eventually one of these little beat-downs is going to be recorded, and it’s not going to look good, and they need to cool it.”

As for who is responsible for that behavior? “It ends at the top,” he continued. “And I’ve said this many times: Until there is a public denunciation … if they don’t call it out, then they condone it, in my opinion.”

WHAT CONSERVATIVES WANT: McCarthy threw some shade toward the rebels last week by suggesting they don’t know what they’re trying to get. But after a round of calls last night, it’s clear that they do have an ask, which they have been guarding closely.

Two people close to the group say the hard-liners are discussing ways to ensure next year’s spending bills are written at fiscal 2022 levels — that is, below the caps McCarthy agreed to with Biden. That, they say, would fulfill a promise McCarthy made during the speakership fight in January.

The senior GOP aide mentioned above said it’s not out of the realm of possibility that McCarthy could throw the angry conservatives a bone and instruct appropriators to do just that. But those bills would die in the Democratic-majority Senate, meaning Congress will ultimately have to swallow the numbers McCarthy negotiated with Biden. “And these guys, yet again, are going to get pissed,” the aide added.

Related read: “If you thought the debt fight was tough, get ready for spending season,” by Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes

Another idea percolating over the weekend: Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who joined the rebellion against last week’s rule, spoke at the annual Western Conservative Summit, where he proposed axing funding for federal programs that have not been formally reauthorized. The idea received praise on Twitter last night from Burchett and Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), a longtime McCarthy critic.

McCarthy has just over 24 hours to get the House back on track. Lawmakers come back in tonight and are expected to pass several noncontroversial bipartisan bills, including resolutions calling for the release of two American citizens imprisoned in Russia, PAUL WHELAN and EVAN GERSHKOVICH. Tomorrow, though, the speaker is hoping to advance his agenda, moving forward with the anti-regulatory bills that were blocked last week as well as the Clyde legislation.

Will conservatives cooperate? Not without an olive branch, it appears.

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TRUMP INDICTMENT LATEST …

• Trump won’t waste any time trying to turn his Miami arraignment Tuesday in his favor: Later that day, he’ll host a (previously planned) fundraiser and deliver public remarks at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., Alex Isenstadt reports. The Trump campaign expects the fundraiser, which includes a private dinner by candlelight for top donors, to pull in $2 million.

• Ahead of the arraignment, Trump will meet today with his legal team in Florida — but he’s having some struggles in trying to hire new lawyers, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo reports. Says one, “My wife would divorce me and my kids wouldn’t talk to me if I defended Trump.”

• A lot of eyes will be trained on U.S. District Court Judge AILEEN CANNON, the Trump appointee who will have significant power over how fast things move and what the jury can see, NBC’s David Rohde, Ken Dilanian and Laura Jarrett write. Trump’s typical tactic is to delay as much as possible, so Cannon will decide how speedily one of the most significant trials in American history proceeds.

• One key pre-trial question will concern evidence from former Trump lawyer EVAN CORCORAN, which the former president’s team will likely seek to exclude. NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Alan Feuer and Ben Protess dig into Corcoran’s evidence, concluding that his notes constitute “some of the most potentially damning evidence” in the case.

• More indictment reading: “Trump Indictment Highlights the Perils of Being His Lawyer,” by Bloomberg’s Zoe Tillman … “How Walt Nauta, a Personal Aide, Came to Be Charged as Trump’s Co-Conspirator,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan … “Trump and Special Counsel Signal Early Strategies for Criminal Case,” by WSJ’s C. Ryan Barber and James Fanelli

PHOTO OF THE DAY

2024 WATCH

THE GOP’S TWO PATHS — Much of the Republican electorate is in a dark mood about the state of the country, and both Trump and DeSantis reflect that doom and gloom. But a handful of other presidential contenders are trying to stake out a different emotional lane, offering a more upbeat message, Adam Wren, Sally Goldenberg and Natalie Allison report this morning. From Pence to South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT to North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM, this crop of candidates is attempting a different way into the top tier, rooted in optimism and hope — and it remains to be seen how much appetite the base has for it.

The presidential field also has an existential choice in how it responds to Trump’s federal criminal indictment for his handling of classified documents: between loyalty to Trump and loyalty to the law, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Ken Bensinger write. The stakes are high, with “enormous implications for the future of the G.O.P.” and of the American criminal justice system, as the challengers seeking to dislodge Trump from the lead decide whether to jettison the party’s long-standing emphasis on the importance of law and order.

TAR HEEL OF FORTUNE — The Biden campaign is making a serious play to flip North Carolina next year, hoping that growing metropolitan areas will finally deliver the demographic shift Democrats have needed in the state, USA Today’s Joey Garrison reports. Republicans will need to match their big turnout numbers of recent years among white, working-class voters, while unaffiliated women may be the decisive voting bloc.

STAFFING UP — “Nikki Haley’s Iowa leadership team boasts Republican strategists and local politicians,” by the Des Moines Register’s Noelle Alviz-Gransee and Francesca Block: “Who made it on Haley’s team? BILL MACKEY … will be Haley’s Iowa Political Director. … State Senator CHRIS COURNOYER … State Rep. AUSTIN HARRIS … DAWN ROBERTS … EMILY SUKUP-SCHMITT.”

MORE POLITICS

THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE PARTY — “Georgia GOP elects election deniers to key posts,” by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein and Mark Niesse in Columbus, Georgia: “A host of hardline conservative activists who support Donald Trump’s election fraud lies were elected to top party leadership posts by the more than 2,000 delegates to this weekend’s Georgia GOP convention.”

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — “Democrats’ plan to take control of Congress could depend on Southern California,” by the L.A. Times’ Seema Mehta: “Most are in swaths of California that voted for President Biden … But Democrats face conundrums in many of the contests.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

DUNN-DUH-DUNN-DUNN — Senior Biden aide ANITA DUNN is the president’s not-so-secret bruiser — the one who elevated “Dark Brandon” into White House messaging and a key strategist for his 2024 campaign, CNN’s Betsy Klein writes in a new profile. Dunn has the communications challenge of a lifetime ahead of her as she prepares to convince a skeptical American public that Biden deserves a second term. Notably, “Dunn was central to a recent decision to frame the president’s age as a sign of wisdom and experience,” rather than having Biden avoid the topic, and she’s also playing a role in trying to boost Harris’ public profile.

CONGRESS

NOMINEE TRAVAILS — “The surprising corner of the Senate that’s sinking Biden nominees,” by Burgess Everett, Jennifer Haberkorn and Daniella Diaz: “Relatively obscure nominations are turning into Senate knife fights as 2024 approaches. And the Commerce Committee is the center of the action. So far this year, three Biden picks for executive-branch positions withdrew because they lacked enough support in the committee, which has four Democratic members up for reelection in swing states next fall. And when Republicans stick together — under the surprising leadership of Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) — that can cause problems.”

DIVIDE ON THE LEFT — “Maxine Waters, Elizabeth Warren clash over investment rules,” by Eleanor Mueller and Declan Harty: “At the heart of the rift is a series of Republican-led proposals that would make it easier for individual Americans to buy stakes in startups and other privately held businesses … [Rep. MAXINE] WATERS, a California Democrat, is using her lead role on the House Financial Services Committee to rally support for the measures … Her backing helped House Republicans pass the bills and send them to the Senate in recent days — despite an outcry from consumer advocates and opposition from progressives including [Sen. ELIZABETH] WARREN and fellow Massachusetts Democrat Rep. AYANNA PRESSLEY.”

POLICY CORNER

FED UP — “As Fed Signals Rate Pause, Powell Will Have to Placate Hawks,” by Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva: “Federal Reserve officials are ready to take a breather after more than a year of driving up interest rates, a move that’s likely to be accompanied by a strong signal that they’re prepared to keep hiking if needed.”

— “Fed set to pause rate hikes, but real pain may lie ahead,” by Victoria Guida: “Wall Street investors, who until just weeks ago were betting that Powell would start cutting rates in the coming months, are now expecting the Fed to keep costs high through at least the rest of the year, as both the job market and inflation have stayed stronger than expected.”

MEDIAWATCH

CNN’S NEXT DRAMA — “How Warner used CNN to lobby Andrew Cuomo,” by Semafor’s Max Tani: “Later this month, the company will begin arbitration with former host CHRIS CUOMO over his $125 million claim he was wrongly fired in in 2021. The New York proceeding includes previously undisclosed text messages in which CNN’s parent company, then known as WarnerMedia, sought to use the news network’s close relationship with then-New York Governor ANDREW CUOMO — Chris’ brother — to advance Warner’s commercial interests. The September 22, 2020 texts are between Governor Cuomo and CNN’s then-chief marketing officer, ALLISON GOLLUST.”

Ned Lamont has a group together to try to buy the Arizona Coyotes and bring them to Hartford.

Dana Bash takes the reins of the weekday “Inside Politics” on CNN today, with guests Jamie Raskin and Judy Woodruff.

Deborah Lipstadt pushed back against criticisms of the administration’s strategy for fighting antisemitism.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Glynda Brown is joining Public Private Strategies as senior adviser for programs and operations and acting COO. She previously was a freelance program manager and is a JPMorgan Chase and Citi Private Bank alum.

TRANSITIONS — Karen Defilippi is now an EVP and co-leader of the creative campaigns services division at BerlinRosen. She most recently was deputy executive director for campaigns and political at the DCCC. … Patrick Bond is now VP and head of public affairs at the American Securities Association. He previously was comms director for Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.). … Susan Griffiths is now an SVP at CGCN Group. She was previously director of government and regulatory affairs at Hyliion Inc. and is a FERC alum. …

… Ryan Ong is now director of tax and trade policy for Kenvue. He previously was senior director of international trade and regulatory affairs at the National Association of Manufacturers. … Avery Jaffe is joining Chime as director of policy comms. He previously was director of North America comms at Mastercard, and is a DCCC alum. … Charlotte Robertson is now digital director for Josh Stein’s North Carolina gubernatorial campaign. She previously was digital director for Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), and is an Abby Finkenauer, Evan McMullin and Maggie Hassan alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) … NBC’s Carrie Budoff Brown … Mayra Macías … Dag Vega of BCW Global … Bloomberg’s Kevin Sheekey … Alex Castellanos … … Rabbi Levi Shemtov … U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. for Management and Reform Chris Lu … Lilia Dashevsky … Michael Finnegan of Atlantic Media … Joyce Kazadi ... Eli Zupnick ... Majority Group’s Dan Archer … Matt Wolking … former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham … former Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) … Peter Schechter … Mort Rosenblum … Coco Pannell … Felix Hendrickson … Matt Mowers … Luis Miranda

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