With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

NEW POLL — NBC News’ first national poll of the 2024 GOP presidential race finds DONALD TRUMP with a double-digit lead over Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS among Republican primary voters.

The numbers: 46% for Trump, 31% for DeSantis and 6% for former VP MIKE PENCE. Tied in fourth place with 3% each: former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) and former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON. VIVEK RAMASWAMY in last place with 2%. Full results

The other big takeaway: “Substantial majorities of all Americans don’t want Trump or President JOE BIDEN to run for president in 2024,” writes NBC’s Mark Murray. A full 70% of voters think Biden shouldn’t run, while 60% say Trump shouldn’t. (“Sequels are frequently hits at the box office, but apparently not at the ballot box,” quipped pollster JEFF HORWITT.)

THE LAST DANCE — Biden is expected to soft-launch his reelection campaign on Tuesday in the form of a video and fundraising appeal to supporters.

Now, at the 11th hour, there’s some doubt about the timing. Biden famously takes a long time to pull the trigger on his final political decisions, and many top Democrats wouldn’t be surprised if Tuesday comes and goes without him taking the plunge.

In Biden world, there are two camps on the “timing” front, as our colleagues Chris Cadelago, Holly Otterbein and Jonathan Lemire report. One wants to get the announcement out of the way and start fundraising. The other essentially argues that timing doesn’t matter.

“Amid all the breathlessness, several Democrats outside the White House told POLITICO they are fine with him waiting until late summer or even the fall. They point to the chaotic Republican primary and cable TV chyron-dominating legal morass swirling around former President Donald Trump as reasons for Biden to keep his powder dry. Some noted the awkwardness of his possible relaunch video Tuesday, the first day of a Manhattan trial over allegations Trump raped a woman decades ago. Which one, they ask facetiously, is the story that will get more eyeballs?”

Biden reportedly recorded the announcement video after returning from Ireland. WaPo’s Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer have more details:

“A videographer soon met him in Rehoboth Beach, Del., where Biden spent the weekend, after arriving in Dover at 2:26 a.m. with his sister, VALERIE, and his son, HUNTER. The president shot parts of the launch video over the next two days before returning to the White House on Sunday night, according to people familiar with events, who like others in this story requested anonymity to describe private conversations.

“Once Biden returned to the White House, he and first lady JILL BIDEN met with senior aides to finalize the details of the reelection launch, and after the Bidens signed off on the plans, the officials ramped up their final preparations.

“Top fundraising officials at the Democratic National Committee scrambled to make dozens of phone calls, frequently ending up in voice mails, inviting top donors for a hastily arranged summit with the president to plan events. Other staffers were dispatched to build a campaign website that could receive the first donations of what some in the party believe could amount to a $2 billion effort, counting the spending of outside groups.”

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A NEW GOP DIVIDE ON ABORTION — For years, Republican presidential candidates faced a rather straightforward litmus test on abortion: Should Roe v. Wade be overturned? On that, they generally agreed: It should.

But now that Roe has been overturned, a new divide is splitting top Republicans: Should abortion be banned nationally, or should abortion rights policy be left up to the states?

Last night, that emerging fissure was on full display at a forum held by the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, which featured speeches from Pence, Hutchinson, Scott and Ramaswamy. (Trump appeared via video.)

Des Moines Register’s Katie Akin and Galen Bacharier: “Pence, who has been among the most vocal Republican opponents to abortion, said he would ‘certainly support any pro-life legislation that came before me’ if elected. And he split with Trump on the issue, criticizing him for not being open to federal restrictions.

“‘I do think it’s more likely that this issue is resolved at the state level,’ Pence told reporters. ‘But I don’t agree with the former president, who says this is a states-only issue. We’ve been given a new beginning for life in this country.’

“Pence said federal abortion proposals, like a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, ‘are all ideas that ought to be part of the debate.’ The former vice president also said he believed ‘mail-order abortions’ involving medication ‘should be banned,’ a day after the Supreme Court ruled that the abortion drug mifepristone should remain widely available.”

But the politics of abortion rights are proving toxic for the GOP in swing seats and suburbs throughout the country, and many Republicans in Washington are eager to steer clear of the types of policies Pence is touting, as CNN’s Melanie Zanona, Annie Grayer and Lauren Fox report in a big piece this morning:

“House Republicans are abandoning a years-long push by their party to pass a federal abortion ban and are exploring other ways to advance their anti-abortion agenda — a remarkable shift that underscores how the GOP is wrestling with an issue that has become a political landmine for their party.

“In interviews with dozens of Republicans, the vast majority — even among the staunchest opponents of abortion — rejected the idea of Congress pursuing a national ban and said leadership has no plans on the horizon for it to be a centerpiece of their agenda, despite passing federal restrictions on the procedure in previous years when they were in power. …

“There is a political risk, however, in letting states be in the driver’s seat. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban earlier this month and other states have outright banned the procedure, while a legal fight is playing out in the courts about whether women should continue to have access to a commonly used abortion pill. That’s fueling fears over whether these developments could be a drag on the entire Republican ticket next year, regardless of how hard congressional Republicans try to avoid questions about the matter.”

Related read: “Losing Ballot Issues on Abortion, G.O.P. Now Tries to Keep Them Off the Ballot,” by NYT’s Kate Zernike and Michael Wines

SUNDAY BEST …

— New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on the timeline for deciding to enter the presidential race, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I think everybody will have to make a decision by Fourth of July. Get the exploratory committees. I think there’s a lot of new candidates that are stepping up saying, ‘Hey, wait, there’s lanes here?’ There’s a lot of opportunity here.”

— ASA HUTCHINSON on DeSantis’ fight with Disney, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I think he’s getting it wrong on Disney. I think Disney got it wrong on themselves to begin with. I don’t agree with how Disney has handled things, but you don’t use the heavy handed government to punish a business.”

— Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) on a potential code of conduct for Supreme Court justices, on “Meet the Press”: “The code of conduct would look an awful lot like the code that applies to the rest of federal government and other judges. … Why this Supreme Court, these nine justices believe they are exempt from the basic standards of disclosure, I cannot explain.”

— Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on whether he agrees with Trump’s abortion stance, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Here’s what I believe, that anybody running for president who has a snowball’s chance in hell in the 2024 primary is going to be with me, the American people and all of Europe saying late-term abortions should be off the table.”

— Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) on the abortion pill decision, on ABC’s “This Week”: “I’m not sure how to read it. I do know that it was the judge’s decision in Texas. I think it was crazy. The notion that you would take a drug that has been used safely for more than two decades and somehow then take that away from availability.”

— Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) on the debt limit negotiations, on “State of the Union”: “President Biden should sit down with Speaker McCarthy. … That is the place to negotiate. And they should start those negotiations now, not using the American people and their mortgages as hostage, because, right now, we have got to simply make clear we’re going to avoid default and get this behind us. We pay our bills.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

• Megan McArdle in WaPo: “For conservatives, Dylan Mulvaney should be a role model”
• David French in NYT: “Gun Idolatry Is Destroying the Case for Guns”
• Michael Podhorzer in Weekend Reading: “Congressional ‘Class Inversion’ or Sectional Reversion?”
• David Pierce in The Verge: “Can ActivityPub save the internet?”
• Rana Foroohar in FT: “Immigration is back in the U.S.”
• Laurence Tribe and Dennis Aftergut in the Boston Globe: “Five takeaways from the Supreme Court’s abortion pill ruling”
• Nancy Kaffer in the Detroit Free Press: “Anti-abortion movement can’t win — so it’s changing the rules”
• Brian Klaas in The Atlantic: “The Red States Experimenting With Authoritarianism”
• Mark O’Connell in NYT: “Our Way of Life Is Poisoning Us”
• John Hart in The Dispatch: “The Unbearable Opportunity Cost of Trumpism”
• John Poulos in NYT: “Dominion’s C.E.O.: We Settled the Lawsuit Against Fox News, but We’re Not Done Yet”
• Edward Luce in FT: “The new Washington consensus”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. DEALING IN THE DARK: “So much for that promise: Debt bill talks again done in the backroom,” analysis by WaPo’s Paul Kane: “Not a single committee held a hearing on a bill that would slash trillions of dollars from federal agency budgets and revoke clean climate tax credits. Not one committee held the traditional legislative markup to consider amendments and further debate on the measure. Not one Democrat had input into the measure.

“And a surprising thing happened along the way. The Republicans, even the most conservative antagonists who decried this type of legislating, learned to like backroom dealmaking despite their demands in early January for [Speaker KEVIN] McCARTHY (R-Calif.) to promise a more open legislative process in exchange for their votes for speaker.”

2. KNOWING PETE AGUILAR: “How the mayor of a small Inland Empire town became one of Congress’ most powerful Democrats,” by L.A. Times’ Benjamin Oreskes: “Friends and foes alike note his tranquil demeanor, openness to differing viewpoints, and reputation for offering counsel to colleagues expressing complaints, concerns and compliments. Partially because of his demeanor and the decidedly moderate part of the state he represents, Aguilar is far from an ideological warrior duking it out over culture-war issues.”

On his future ambitions: “I don’t think HAKEEM [JEFFRIES] is going to do this job for 20 years like [NANCY] PELOSI did,” Aguilar said when asked whether he’d be interested in eventually becoming speaker. “Come find me in 12 years after he does this, and we’ll talk. It’s nothing I yearn for, to be honest with you,” he said, before adding: “Maybe I shouldn’t say that.”

3. WELCOME BACK, JOHN: “A look under the hoodie: Inside Sen. John Fetterman’s first week back,” by WaPo’s Kara Voght: “When he came to Washington in January … he surprised staff by insisting on suits for his public engagements. They didn’t know it was a sign of the depths of [Sen. JOHN] FETTERMAN’s depression — that the politician who had built his populist brand on not caring what others thought of his appearance was afraid of being judged.

“Now, with his depression in remission, Fetterman was eager to ditch his suit — except that on the Senate floor, you need to wear a tie. ADAM JENTLESON, his chief of staff, suggested a compromise: a shirt and tie under the hoodie, then throw a jacket over the hoodie. When Fetterman emerged in his casual-business-formal turducken, another senior staffer rejected the bulky look. Fetterman agreed. He eventually opted for just the suit and a new pair of black suede high-top sneakers.

“The question of what the senator should wear was part of a larger challenge, which is reintroducing Sen. John Fetterman to Washington — on his own terms. ‘In a very strong way, that was the first day I was in my job,’ Fetterman said in a brief interview with The Washington Post.”

4. HUMAN CASUALTIES OF THE CULTURE WAR: “Health care access for trans youth is crumbling — and not just in red states,” by Megan Messerly: “The impact of gender-affirming care bans — inflamed by the rhetoric on the right about ‘child grooming’ — is rippling beyond Republican-controlled states, making it harder everywhere for transgender youth to receive care and physicians to provide it, eight doctors who provide gender-affirming care to transgender youth told POLITICO. … Even in states without bans, providers said death threats, harassment, fears of litigation and, in some cases, a lack of support from institutions have created a chilling effect that undermines their ability to provide care.”

5. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, hoping to deter one,” by AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer: “It’s April 22, 2027, and 72 hours into a first-strike Chinese attack on Taiwan and the U.S. military response. Already, the toll on all sides is staggering. It was a war game, but one with a serious purpose and high-profile players: members of the House select committee on China. … The exercise played out one night last week and was observed by The Associated Press. It was part of the committee’s in-depth review of U.S. policies toward China as lawmakers, especially in the Republican-led House, focus on tensions with President XI JINPING’s government.”

6. 2024 WATCH: “‘Utah, like Florida, is where freedom works,’ Gov. Ron DeSantis tells Utah GOP during keynote speech,” by The Salt Lake Tribune’s Bryan Schott: “A month ago, when he was announced as the keynote speaker for the Utah Republican Party’s 2023 organizing convention, Ron DeSantis’ political star was rising. The Florida governor was considered a serious rival to Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Bringing him to Utah shortly before the expected launch of his White House bid was a massive coup for Beehive Republicans.

“Fast forward to Saturday. DeSantis is still expected to run for president next year, but his prospects are significantly dimmer. Polls show Trump has opened up a significant lead over DeSantis, and enthusiasm for DeSantis among donors has cooled dramatically. Still, Republican delegates at the UCCU Center on the Utah Valley University campus Saturday were enthusiastic about DeSantis coming West.”

Poll position: “Recent poll shows DeSantis ahead of Trump in Utah,” by the Deseret News’ Suzanne Bates: “In a two-way match-up, the poll showed DeSantis ahead of Trump 46% to 35%, with 19% of voters saying they are undecided.” (We’ll just say: If DeSantis didn’t lead Trump among the famously non-MAGA Republicans in Utah, that would be a serious red flag.)

7. GUNS IN AMERICA: “The Surprising Geography of Gun Violence,” by Colin Woodard for POLITICO Magazine: “America’s regions are poles apart when it comes to gun deaths and the cultural and ideological forces that drive them.”

Related read: “A nation rocked by mass shootings goes on an extended gun-buying run,” by CNN’s Ray Sanchez, Miguel Marquez and Sarah Boxer

8. LEAK LATEST: “Afghanistan has become a terrorism staging ground again, leak reveals,” by WaPo’s Dan Lamothe and Joby Warrick: “The attack planning, detailed in U.S. intelligence findings leaked on the Discord messaging platform and obtained by The Washington Post, reveal specific efforts to target embassies, churches, business centers and the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, which drew more than 2 million spectators last summer in Qatar. Pentagon officials were aware in December of nine such plots coordinated by ISIS leaders in Afghanistan, and the number rose to 15 by February, says the assessment, which has not been disclosed previously.”

Related reads: “Wagner group surges in Africa as U.S. influence fades, leak reveals,” by WaPo’s Greg Miller and Robyn Dixon … “Leak of Government Secrets Adds Pressure to Overhaul Security Clearances,” by WSJ’s Ben Kesling and Dustin Volz … “Jack Teixeira spent years honing his online warrior skills. Then an armored car rolled up his driveway,” by the Boston Globe’s Hanna Krueger

9. PUTIN ON THE FRITZ: “Russia running the U.N. Security Council is going about how you’d expect,” by Nahal Toosi: “The United Nations is accustomed to oddity, absurdity and a certain amount of hypocrisy. But the eye-rolling is hitting epic levels this month as Russia has taken over the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council and used it to defend its war on Ukraine. Already, the Kremlin has held sessions to cast its abductions of Ukrainian children as a protective measure and accuse Western countries of being irresponsible on arms control by sending weapons to Kyiv.”

Bryan Metzger ventured to one of Chuck Grassley’s favorite Iowa haunts: The Windsor Heights Dairy Queen.

Dan Kildee had a successful surgery to remove a small cancerous tumor in his tonsil.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at an Eid open house yesterday afternoon at the home of PBS’ Amna Nawaz and NYT alum Paul Werdel in Alexandria, Va., with lots of traditional Pakistani and Indian food catered by Diya restaurant, including samosas and channa, chicken tikka, pakoras, gulab jamun, baklava and masala chai: Maria Teresa Kumar and Raj Kumar, Sumi Somaskanda and Julian Ramirez, Sara Just, Amy Walter, Sabrina Siddiqui, Drew Hammill and Jason Mida, Vivian Salama, Noorain Khan, Lisa Desjardins and William Brangham.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Hope Walker, executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, and Chris Rossi, a project manager at Spirax Sarco USA, got married yesterday at First Baptist Church in Columbia, S.C., with a reception at Carolina Haven. The two met at Hendrix, a local restaurant in Columbia. Pic … SPOTTED: South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and first lady Peggy McMaster, Reps. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and Russell Fry (R-S.C.), South Carolina AG Alan Wilson, Ellen Weaver, Drew McKissick, Stephen Groves, Abigail Marone, Matt and Meg Moore, Matt Orr, Alex Stroman and Kevin Walling and Taylor and Tyler Mason.

— Ashley Inman, a foreign service officer at the State Department, and David Beavers, a PhD candidate in political science at Harvard University and a POLITICO alum, got married on Friday at Parque at Ridley Creek in Newtown Square, Pa. The two first met in D.C. at a party hosted by their mutual friend Nina Dudko in February 2018. Pic … Another pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Bianca Facchinei, a national correspondent in the Washington bureau of Scripps News, and Brooks Pastorius, a division sales manager at Sanofi, on Monday welcomed Christopher Bryce Pastorius. Pic ... Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) … Fireside Campaigns’ Pili Tobar … Aaron Huertas … Jeff Wiener of Milne, Wiener & Shofe Global Strategies … John Oliver … Hadar Susskind of Americans for Peace Now … Tim Lim … Doug Brake … Kindred Motes … Clarine Nardi Riddle of Kasowitz Benson Torres and No Labels … Ted Trippi … Global Women’s Innovation Network’s Tizzy Brown … Camila Gonzalez of WilmerHale … Darien Flowers … POLITICO’s Julian Sharat … Justin White … Chevron’s Jennifer Smith … Bloomberg’s Paula Dwyer … Vice News’ Jesse Seidman … Bill Browder … former Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) (7-0) … Michael Moore … Kal Penn … Peter Joseph … Gus Portela … Blendi Qatipi … Gideon Lett ... Alex Lupica … S.T.O.P.’s Albert Fox Cahn

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.