With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

WHAT A WEEK — Monday: The House Jan. 6 select committee meets at 1 p.m. to vote on its final report and possible criminal referrals against DONALD TRUMP; Ecuadorian President GUILLERMO LASSO visits the White House … Tuesday: The House Ways and Means Committee meets to discuss publicly releasing the former president’s tax returns … Wednesday: Barring Supreme Court intervention, the Title 42 border protocol expires … Thursday: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases new economic growth estimates … Friday: Government funding expires at midnight … Saturday: Christmas Eve

PANEL PREPS ITS FINAL PUNCH — Thanks to our ace investigations reporter Kyle Cheney, we already know what to expect when the House Jan. 6 committee convenes this afternoon to wrap up its business: As Kyle and Nick Wu scooped Friday, the panel plans to urge the Justice Department to charge Trump with at least three crimes: inciting an insurrection, obstructing an official proceeding and conspiring to defraud the United States.

But there are plenty more unanswered questions surrounding the committee’s closing act, and we caught up with Kyle last night to walk us through the remaining drama …

— Thanks to your reporting, we already know a lot — what charges the panel is likely to recommend, what format its report will take, even how many chapters it is going to contain. So what potential surprises are still out there?

Kyle: The most significant thing left for the committee to do is to fill in the record. Their decision to recommend criminal charges for Donald Trump will suck up a lot of the oxygen, but the more significant development will be the sheer volume of new details and information the panel supplies to back up the eye-popping contentions in their report. For instance, I want to know what evidence of witness tampering the committee has, which they've teased during some public hearings. I want to know what Trump national security aide TONY ORNATO told the committee during his November interview — after the explosive testimony that CASSIDY HUTCHINSON provided about his conversations with her. I want to know who the committee believes lied to them in the course of their investigation.

— Will we see recommendations for charges against others in the former president’s inner circle?

Kyle: I anticipate the panel will recommend charges against JOHN EASTMAN, one of the key architects of Trump's bid to remain in power despite losing reelection. That's primarily because they already have! In court filings stretching back to February the panel has suggested its evidence shows Eastman committed some of the same crimes they believe Trump has, and a federal judge in California agreed with the committee's assessment. So the DOJ may not need to be informed of the committee's view here.

— What does this final report and referral mean for special counsel JACK SMITH, who is leading the criminal investigation into Trump?

Kyle: Smith's investigation has appeared to surpass the select committee's capabilities, but that's not to say the panel’s evidence has no value. In fact, the sheer volume of witness interviews and testimony may add a lot of new facts and leads for Smith's team to pursue. One possibility is that Justice Department investigators will compare testimony they've already received to the transcripts the panel releases to check for inconsistencies or gaps. The select committee's report is also sure to create a renewed sense of urgency behind Smith's investigation.

— Based on what you know, how likely is a Trump indictment in the coming months?

Kyle: I couldn't do more than speculate here. We know the DOJ has brought in some of the highest-level figures in Trump's orbit, reaching the upper echelons of his administration. That's usually a sign of a mature investigation that could be nearing a charging decision. And don't sleep on the Fulton County grand jury in Georgia, which has similarly fought and won battles to obtain testimony from many of Trump's top aides. Both of these probes could be relatively close to deciding whether to charge Trump or his allies — weeks to a few months away.

SETTING THE TABLE …  “Jan. 6 committee finalizes criminal referral plan for Trump,” by NBC’s Ali Vitali, Kate Santaliz and Haley Talbot … “What to watch as Jan. 6 panel cites Trump’s ‘attempted coup,’” by AP’s Farnoush Amiri and Hope Yen … “January 6 committee considering how to handle uncooperative GOP lawmakers, Schiff says,” by CNN’s Zachary Cohen

WHAT BIDEN IS WATCHING — The White House, we’re told, is “closely watching” whether the committee refers House GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY and Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) for ethics sanctions after defying the panel’s subpoenas. You can bet Biden allies will frequently cite their obstinance — in the media and, potentially, in the courts — as the GOP sends subpoena after subpoena down Pennsylvania Avenue starting Jan. 3. A person familiar with the White House’s thinking summarized the message sent by the likely new speaker and Judiciary Committee chair: “Subpoenas for thee, but not for me.”

MIKE PENCE’S IDENTITY CRISIS — Today’s must-read deep dive comes from our colleague Adam Wren, who twice interviewed MIKE PENCE and spoke to more than 30 others about the former VP’s divided loyalties ahead of a possible 2024 bid. Case in point: Pence emerged as a Jan. 6 hero for refusing to follow Trump’s wishes and throw out Electoral College votes, then wrote a memoir exalting his loyalty to the Constitution. Yet he campaigned for election deniers in the midterms, a bid to appeal to a Trump-loving GOP base he needs to be a successful White House contender.

“[H]e’s struggling to demonstrate where his loyalties really lie — to the former president whose White House record he proudly touts as a shared legacy, or to a wing of the party that is debating whether to unshackle itself from a conspiracy-laden cult of personality,” Adam writes. “At a moment when Pence most needs to clearly identify himself to a party that is beginning to audition alternatives to its divisive de facto leader, Pence seems stuck in some muddled attempt to be multiple things simultaneously. And nothing expresses that strained compromise quite like his tortured rationale about whom to support on the campaign trail this fall.”

Good Monday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Where are you doing your last-minute holiday shopping? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

OMNI LATEST — A planned $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill appears to be on track for passage ahead of a Friday shutdown deadline after appropriations and leadership staff worked through the weekend to finalize negotiations. Final legislative text is expected to be filed later today — or, let’s be honest, early tomorrow morning — allowing the Senate to pass the bill no later than Thursday, with House action to quickly follow.

The real intrigue now surrounds what legislative ornaments get hung on the omnibus tree. A person familiar with the talks said the parties have agreed to attach a rewrite of the Electoral Count Act but that bipartisan legislation forcing Apple and Google to open up their phone-app platforms has been nixed (confirming WaPo’s Tony Romm).

Recommended read:“Shelby's swan song: A spending spat within his party,” by Caitlin Emma, Burgess Everett and Jordain Carney: The nameplate has been taken off his office door. And his desk — which belonged to former President LYNDON B. JOHNSON — is being hauled out. But retiring top Senate GOP appropriator RICHARD SHELBY (R-Ala.) is hoping to pull one last job at age 88: getting the omnibus through the Senate despite conservatives attacking his work as a “betrayal” of his party ahead of a Republican House takeover.

— Notable quotable: “I don’t want a monument,” Shelby said. “Monuments are for pigeons and dogs.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

ALL POLITICS

HOW DEMS DID IT — Our colleagues Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein are up with a big look at exactly how the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade upended the midterms, speaking to more than 50 elected officials, campaign aides and consultants from both parties to track how the issue played out among swing voters who decided the balance of power in Washington.

How far things shifted: “At the start of the midterm election cycle, many Democrats feared abortion would be a dud — even those who believed Roe would likely be overturned. When one top Democratic super PAC interviewed voters in battleground states in the winter of 2021, they were adamant that abortion rights were safe even after the Supreme Court declined to block a Texas law that would ban abortions after about six weeks.”

What the GOP is worried about: “Unlike the Republican Party’s other headaches this cycle — money woes, flawed candidates, and even Trump — Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization cannot be undone anytime soon. Democratic and Republican operatives said that means abortion is poised to play as big a role, if not bigger, in upcoming elections, triggering a dramatic shift in political strategy as liberal groups target more states for abortion-related ballot initiatives.”

LETTER FROM AMERICAFEST — “Young conservatives send mixed messages on Trump at MAGA gathering,” by Natalie Allison in Phoenix: “At times from the stage here, Trump and his policies were praised. So were [Florida Gov. RON] DeSANTIS’. But aside from unsuccessful Arizona gubernatorial candidate KARI LAKE, speakers largely shied away from the nascent 2024 campaign, with most declining to pledge loyalty to Trump in his comeback presidential bid.”

INSIDE THE RNC DUEL — “McDaniel faces furious campaign from right in race for RNC chair,” by Natalie and Meridith McGraw in Phoenix: As Chair RONNAMcDANIEL faces a challenge from attorney HARMEET DHILLON, “RNC members say their inboxes have been clogged with hundreds of emails each week — and the uproar has now turned to the RNC’s spending on events, private travel, luxury accommodations and other expenses in an election cycle that didn’t deliver strong GOP wins.”

HOT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE — “‘How dare he?’ New Hampshire seethes at Biden's planned changes to the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries,” by NBC’s Natasha Korecki in New Castle: “Democrats warn that Biden’s changes could have catastrophic consequences for a party that’s worked for decades to turn the state purple, and a delegation that is already taking blame for the White House’s move. The president made the decision even after the New Hampshire delegation made a personal appeal to him.”

CONGRESS

INDEPENDENT SINEMA — “Sinema’s switch was months in the making. Now it’s a challenge for Democrats,” by WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Liz Goodwin: “By the fall, planning was underway, even before [Arizona Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA] appeared in late September at the University of Louisville McConnell Center, where she defended her centrist brand of politics — and further enraged some liberals — with the Republican Senate minority leader, MITCH McCONNELL of Kentucky, looking on.

“McConnell advises Sinema frequently, according to a person familiar with their relationship, and the two spoke about her decision to defend the legislative filibuster and other matters. … High-ranking Democrats said they remained in the dark until just before she pulled the trigger.”

BIG McCARTHY PROFILE — “No Limits: What Kevin McCarthy will do to gain power,” by The New Yorker’s Jonathan Blitzer

Brutal assessment from former Rep. BILL THOMAS, McCarthy’s political mentor: “‘Kevin basically is whatever you want him to be. He lies. He’ll change the lie if necessary. How can anyone trust his word?’ He went on, ‘At some point, you have to look at where you started and how you got to where you are, and I would ask you, How do you feel about yourself? I know what his answer would be, but it wouldn’t be the truth.’ What would the answer be? I asked. ‘It was all worth it.’”

TRUMP CARDS

TRUMP’S NO GOOD, VERY BAD WEEK — “Trump Faces a Week of Headaches on Jan. 6 and His Taxes,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman: “On Tuesday, the House Ways and Means Committee will meet privately to discuss what to do with the six years of Mr. Trump’s tax returns that it finally obtained after nearly four years of legal efforts by Mr. Trump to block their release. The committee could release them publicly, which would most likely be done in the final days of Democratic control of Congress.

“And on Wednesday, the Jan. 6 committee is expected to release its report on the attack, along with some transcripts of interviews with witnesses. Taken together, this week will point a spotlight on both Mr. Trump’s refusal to cede power and the issue that he has most acutely guarded for decades, the actual size of his personal wealth and his sources of income.”

A PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN — “How Trump jettisoned restraints at Mar-a-Lago and prompted legal peril,” by WaPo’s Rosalind Helderman, Josh Dawsey, Ashley Parker and Jacqueline Alemany in Palm Beach, Fla.: “In the two years since he left office, Trump has re-created the conditions of his own freewheeling White House — with all of its chaos, norm flouting and catering to his ego — with little regard for the law. …

“Though few rules guide the life of a former president, Trump has exhibited a characteristic disinterest in following any of them. These days, he is served almost exclusively by sycophants, having replaced successive rounds of loyal yet inexperienced aides with staffers even more beholden and novice.”

POLICY CORNER

CRYPTO CRISIS CONTINUES — “Sam Bankman-Fried Is Expected to Consent to Extradition From Bahamas,” by WSJ’s Alexander Saeedy, Justin Baer and James Fanelli

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — “White House leans on Congress, rallies allies, to aid Ukraine through winter of war,” by Jonathan Lemire: To push through Ukraine aid in the omnibus, “The White House is relying on some unlikely allies: moderate Republicans in the House who have voiced support for the funding, as well as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has steadfastly backed the assistance to Kyiv.”

TOLL TALLYING — “Counting Russia’s War Dead, With Tips, Clips and a Giant Spreadsheet,” by NYT’s Neil MacFarquhar: “Amid doubts about Moscow’s true war losses, Russian data journalists and volunteers use news articles, tombstone photographs and other open-source information to tally the Russian toll from the war in Ukraine.”

ON THE GROUND — “Battle for Bakhmut Is Critical Test of Russia’s Prospects in Ukraine,” by WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

UP IN ARMS — “Military Spending Surges, Creating New Boom for Arms Makers,” by NYT’s Eric Lipton, Michael Crowley and John Ismay: “Military spending next year is on track to reach its highest level in inflation-adjusted terms since the peaks in the costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars between 2008 and 2011, and the second highest in inflation-adjusted terms since World War II — a level that is more than the budgets for the next 10 largest cabinet agencies combined.”

BEHIND THE SCREENS — “In the U.S., His Site Has Been Linked to Massacres. In Japan, He’s a Star,” by NYT’s Ben Dooley in Tokyo: “HIROYUKI NISHIMURA has become a famous voice for disenchanted young Japanese. What he talks much less about is his ownership of the notorious website 4chan.”

ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA — “North Korea fires two more missiles in a record year for launches,” by CNN’s Yoonjung Seo, Junko Ogura and Brad Lendon

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

IMMIGRATION FILES — “U.S. border cities strained ahead of expected migrant surge,” by AP’s Giovanna Dell’Orto, Morgan Lee and Acacia Coronado in El Paso, Texas: “Along the U.S. southern border, two cities — El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez in Mexico — prepared Sunday for a surge of as many as 5,000 new migrants a day as pandemic-era immigration restrictions expire this week, setting in motion plans for emergency housing, food and other essentials.”

— “Officials of both parties warn U.S. is ill-prepared for lifting of border restrictions,” by WaPo’s Amy Wang and Ariana Eunjung Cha

ABORTION FALLOUT — “‘I’m Not Ready’: A Mother Denied an Abortion in Texas Faces an Uncertain Future,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Williamson in Denton, Texas: “Faith-based Blue Haven Ranch provides temporary aid for poor Texas women with newborns. But how will they survive when it ends?”

CHURCH AND STATE — “U.S. Catholic Priests Are Increasingly Conservative as Faithful Grow More Liberal,” by WSJ’s Francis Rocca

MUSK READS

POWER TO THE PEOPLE — “Elon Musk proposes stepping down as head of Twitter in poll,” by The Verge’s Richard Lawler: “Unmentioned in his tweets, but looming over this week’s entire episode, is the fact that Tesla’s stock price has dropped to a 52-week low of about $150 per share, down nearly 50 percent from a year ago. Musk recently dropped to number two on Forbes's list of the world’s richest people.” See Musk’s tweet

THE MUSK REGIME — 1:27 p.m. Sunday: “Twitter says it will no longer allow ‘free promotion’ of other social media platforms,” by CNBC’s Ashley Capoot … 10:22 p.m. Sunday: “The tweets … announcing a new policy banning linking to competing websites, have been deleted. The policy itself was deleted from Twitter’s website,” noted Popular Information’s Judd Legum.

THE STORY THAT GOT THEM IN TROUBLE — “Elon Musk blamed a Twitter account for a stalker. Police see no link,” by WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Taylor Lorenz in Los Angeles

Elon Musk and Jared Kushner watched the World Cup final in Qatar together.

Brian Schatz is over Twitter (at least temporarily).

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK —Adrienne Elrod is joining the Biden administration, our Jonathan Lemire has learned. Elrod will serve as the director of external affairs for the Commerce Department’s new CHIPS program, overseeing communications, legislative affairs, intergovernmental affairs, and public engagement. Elrod previously worked for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaigns, Bill Clinton’s administration and on the Biden 2020 campaign and inaugural committee.

— The NRSC is announcing its final senior hires for the 2024 cycle: Tim Edson will serve as political director, Matt Wall will serve as deputy executive director and Ryan Dollar will serve as general counsel.

— Pamela Corante is joining the Motion Picture Association as VP of global comms. She previously led comms at Virgin Hyperloop and is an AT&T alum.

MEDIA MOVE — AJ Dellinger is joining Morning Consult as a tech reporter. He previously has written for Mic, Forbes and the AP.

TRANSITIONS — Wesley Whistle is now a special assistant in the Office of the Undersecretary of Education. He previously was policy director of the higher education program at New America, and is a Bob Casey alum. … Michawn Rich is joining Nevada Gov.-elect Joe Lombardo’s office as director of policy. She previously was comms director for Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.).

ENGAGED — Abe Rakov, managing director of Run for Something, and Jake Lewis, who served as comms director for Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont’s campaign, got engaged over the weekend at the Ritz-Carlton in Grand Cayman. The two met in Boston in January 2020 while Abe was working on Deval Patrick’s presidential campaign and Lewis worked on Tom Steyer’s presidential campaign. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) … Reps. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Pat Fallon (R-Texas) … DoD’s Chris Meagher … EPA’s Maggie Polachek … retired Marine Gen. Jim Jones … Ronan Farrow … Tal Kopan of the Boston Globe … CNN’s Josh Freedom du Lac … Puck’s Teddy Schleifer … Bronwyn Lance … Jenny Murphy … Michael Duncan of Cavalry … Ann Lewis … NPR’s Kelsey Snell … Ethan Todras-Whitehill of Swing Left … Ryan Jackson … HUD’s Nicole Lindler … Sameer Punyani … Amy Best Weiss of American Express … Patrick Ventrell … Kelsey Moran … Erin Taylor of the Climate Reality Project … Shannon McGahn of the National Association of Realtors … AgencyIQ’s Alec Gaffney … E&E News’ Emily Yehle … Rebecca Edgar … Chloe Brown of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s office … Max McClellan … Denise Grant of Heidrick & Struggles and Overlook Strategies

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