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MORE RACES CALLED — Democratic Rep. JAHANA HAYES survives in Connecticut's 5th District ... Republican TOM KEAN JR. beats Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI in New Jersey's 7th District ... Democratic Rep. SUSAN WILD keeps her Lehigh Valley seat in Pennsylvania ... Republican JOHN JAMES makes it to the House after losing two Michigan Senate races … The GOP has secured 207 House seats … More election results

McCARTHY’S LAST HURDLE — When JOHN BOEHNER suddenly retired in 2015, members of the House Freedom Caucus showed up at speaker-in-waiting KEVIN McCARTHY’s office with a list of demands: In exchange for their support, they wanted McCarthy to name one of their own to a senior leadership position and embrace rules changes that empowered conservatives.

If he refused, they told him, they would band together to block him from securing the needed 218 votes to be speaker. But McCarthy was unwilling to subjugate his power in order to appease a splinter faction, and ultimately, the California Republican dropped his bid for his dream job, paving the way for PAUL RYAN’s rise.

Since then, McCarthy has cannily maneuvered to ensure he never finds himself in a similar predicament. He’s befriended many of the conservatives he once scorned, made an ally out of his previous archrival, Freedom Caucus founder JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), and become a close confidant of DONALD TRUMP.

Yet seven years later, McCarthy once again finds his dream held hostage by the same group of hardliners. Thanks to the GOP’s lackluster midterm performance, he is seeking to preside over what appears likely to be an extremely thin majority — a scenario that hands massive leverage to the far right.

It feels like déjà vu for those of us who covered the House GOP majority during those years. The demands, focused on rules changes meant to amplify the HFC’s power, are different this time. But they’re once again willing to play hardball to get what they want.

HFC Chair SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) and two senior group members told Playbook Wednesday night they had laid out their demands to McCarthy before the election but that he has so far refused to accept them.

If he continues to hold out, they said, a candidate could emerge to challenge him at next week’s House Republican leadership elections. That person would not be a serious rival for the speaker’s gavel but rather, as group member Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) told us, “a show of force to demonstrate that he doesn’t have the 218 votes.”

“We know there are a number of members who feel as we do, that Kevin McCarthy has not earned the right to lead, has not earned our vote,” Good said.

In the meantime, the group of rabble-rousers is asking for next week’s leadership elections to be delayed. “The rules of the game should be known before we select a captain,” Perry said. “We don’t know what the majority is or who is in the majority. … It seems appropriate that we have a family conversation prior to voting.”

They’re also huddling today with Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON, one of McCarthy’s biggest critics, per The Daily Caller’s Henry Rodgers.

Some of the group’s demands concern changes to the committee selection process and how legislation gets brought up for a vote. But by far the biggest sticking point is restoring the “motion to vacate” — the House rule, recently ditched by Democrats, that allows a single member to force a vote on the speakership at any given time. It’s what sent Boehner packing in 2015 and something conservatives would undoubtedly use to pressure McCarthy against cutting bipartisan deals — i.e., governing.

While McCarthy is expected to acquiesce to some HFC demands, those close to him say restoring the motion to vacate would be painful and potentially crippling. Our colleagues Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney have more this morning on McCarthy’s pushback, arguing to the HFC that handing them the motion to vacate “would allow Democrats to wreak havoc in the chamber.”

“If he bends the knee on the motion to vacate, the speakership is screwed,” one former House leadership staffer who was close with McCarthy told Playbook. “What the fuck is the point in being speaker if they put it back? They own you. They’ll wield that anytime they want to push you around. … And if that’s the price, it’s not worth it.”

But another senior GOP aide rooting for McCarthy said he might not have any choice after spending seven years demonstrating to fellow Republicans he would do anything — anything — to win the gavel: ”It’s just like, ‘Suck up and do it, man. What do you have to lose?’”

A FEW CAVEATS TO NOTE HERE: Things clearly aren’t as dire for McCarthy as they were in 2015. Both sides of this debate believe McCarthy can win the gavel. It’s just a question of what he has to do to get there.

McCarthy allies say he’s in a much stronger position after spending two cycles as minority leader, raising millions of campaign dollars for his members and ultimately bringing them back to the majority. He spent all of Wednesday making calls to his rank and file, seeking to ensure his base support post-election debacle hasn’t eroded, and claimed Wednesday to CNN’s Kristin Wilson that he has the votes to be speaker.

“It’s like night and day from last time,” said one source close to McCarthy who expressed confidence — despite their private expectations that he’ll only have a 224- to 228-seat majority.

There’s other key factors, too:

— This isn’t the same Freedom Caucus. As Olivia and Jordain write, “the Freedom Caucus also has divisions in its ranks that have grown more visible in recent months, schisms that may make it harder for members to stand united against GOP leadership as they make their demands.” And while nobody questions their conservative credentials, the new Freedom Caucus leaders are untested in a high-stakes intraparty battle.

“This group of the Freedom Caucus is just not as strategic as they once were,” one senior GOP aide told us Wednesday night, noting former chairs Jordan and MARK MEADOWS “were good at keeping their people in line and making an ask … I’m less convinced that Perry and Biggs can do this.”

— Jordan has switched teams. While he’s still in the Freedom Caucus, Jordan is backing McCarthy for speaker this time. On the conservative radio program “The Dana Show” on Wednesday, he endorsed McCarthy’s rise to the top despite the Election Day disappointments: “The guy that gets you to the Super Bowl — even if you have to go into overtime in the championship game to get there — should get to coach the game.”

— There is no McCarthy alternative. No. 2 leader STEVE SCALISE declared his candidacy for majority leader Wednesday and publicly disclaimed any interest in challenging McCarthy. The senior GOP aide we spoke to deployed that hoary old truism of congressional leadership elections: “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.”

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook, where we should note the obvious: Rachael is back from maternity leave! Drop her and the other authors a line and tell us what you would be willing to do to be speaker of the House: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

ON THE GROUND IN LAS VEGAS — On Tuesday night at the election watch party for Nevada Democrats on the Vegas Strip, aides to Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO were cautiously optimistic about her prospects for victory.

The campaign’s main concern was whether their Republican opponent, ADAM LAXALT, would prematurely declare victory and throw the post-election vote-counting period into chaos. As Laxalt’s strong rural vote came in, he overtook Cortez Masto in the count, and Democrats’ concerns increased. But so far their fears have been misplaced.

In 2022, this counts as a positive development for American elections. Candidates are largely refraining from using the seesaw nature of vote-counting to sow doubts about the results, as Trump infamously did in 2020.

What hasn’t changed since 2020 is that Nevada (and Arizona and California and many other states) take days to finish counting. While still trailing Laxalt, Cortez Masto’s chances of victory improved Wednesday, with the majority of the outstanding vote consisting of mail ballots from Nevada’s urban centers, which are Democratic strongholds.

According to the latest numbers from Jon Ralston and Sean Golonka of the Nevada Independent, there are about 110,000 mail ballots left to be counted from the two big urban counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno).

Even if Cortez Masto and Laxalt split those ballots well below her current rate of 65%-30%, Ralston notes, she will overtake Laxalt. There are also some outstanding rural ballots that will help Laxalt, and there are things like provisional ballots and cured ballots that all have to be tabulated by Saturday.

But according to the data nerds here, based on the known universe of outstanding ballots, Cortez Masto has a path to victory. And with Sen. MARK KELLY leading BLAKE MASTERS in Arizona by five points with 76% of the vote in, the Democrats could keep the Senate even without winning the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff.

Given what’s happening here in the Southwest, the Georgia results may not determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate but whether Democrats or JOE MANCHIN control the Senate.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

MORE MIDTERMS FALLOUT

JOHN HARRIS COLUMN — “The 2022 Election Was Almost Normal: Voters seemed eager to reward familiarity and impose a penalty on eccentricity.”

CLICKER — “How 2022 Midterm Polls Performed in Senate Races,” by WSJ’s Andrew Mollica and Randy Yeip: “Across the eight most competitive races, Democrats on average did about three points better than the final poll averages calculated by Real Clear Politics. And a number of those averages camouflage a wide disparity among individual polls.”

JUST POSTED — “How Trump, infighting and flawed candidates limited Republican gains,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey, Hannah Knowles, Isaac Arnsdorf and Tyler Pager

THEY’RE OFF IN THE RUNOFF — “Senate Dems pump $7 million into ground game for Georgia runoff,” by Elena Schneider: “The DSCC’s multi-million-dollar expenditure on its ground game will fund direct voter contact programs, particularly door-to-door canvassing, according to details shared first with POLITICO. The DSCC’s program will fortify get-out-the-vote work conducted by a constellation of nonprofits, PACs and Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s campaign.”

— “GOP starts boosting Walker in runoff amid calls to keep Trump away from Georgia,” by NBC’s Marc Caputo: “The head of the Senate Republican campaign committee pledged Wednesday to raise whatever money he can and begin an advertising blitz this week for HERSCHEL WALKER’s runoff in Georgia against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. But there’s one aspect Sen. RICK SCOTT of Florida won’t weigh in on: whether former President Donald Trump should stay out of the runoff in December.”

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVE — “AP VoteCast: Midterm races a patchwork, not a national vote,” by AP’s Josh Boak and Hannah Fingerhut

GOING TO CALIFORNIA — “Tight California races may determine U.S. House control,” by AP’s Michael Blood

STATE OF THE STATEHOUSES — “Democrats take legislatures in Michigan, Minnesota and eye Pennsylvania,” by Liz Crampton

SMOOTH SAILING — “U.S. vote counting unaffected by cyberattacks, officials say,” by AP’s Nomaan Merchant and Emily Wagster Pettus

HOW FAR WE’VE COME — “Trump called a protest. No one showed. Why GOP efforts to cry foul fizzled this time,” by WaPo’s Rosalind Helderman, Patrick Marley and Tom Hamburger: “Election officials said they believed the relative normalcy resulted from a combination of concerted effort on the part of well-prepared poll workers and voters, as well as the fact that some of Trump’s loudest supporters were less potent than they had claimed.”

HISTORY MAKERS — “This diverse class of state executives were the stars of the midterms,” by Marissa Martinez, Lisa Kashinsky and Brakkton Booker

STILL STANDING — “Elected to House in 2018, Most Democratic Women Are Hanging On,” by NYT’s Maggie Astor: “Twenty-seven of the original 35 Democratic women were on the ballot on Nov. 8, and of those, at least 20 — 74 percent — were re-elected, a number that is likely to increase as more races are called in the coming days.”

DIFFERENT SHADE OF BLUE — One of the major takeaways that has emerged since Tuesday night is how Democrats’ attempt to gerrymander New York backfired, leaving them vulnerable in more districts than they ever imagined — knocking off the DCCC chair and dimming their prospects of a historic hold in the House. On Wednesday morning, “blame swirled as Democrats in New York reckoned with outcomes that fell short of their worst fears but loosened their grip on political power at every level,” Sally Goldenberg, Joe Anuta and Joseph Spector write.

— NYT’s Nicholas Fandos speaks to some of the major party players in the Empire State to get their take. Here’s a choice quote from Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ: “It’s no secret that an enormous amount of party leadership in New York State is based on big money and old-school, calcified machine-style politics that creates a very anemic voting base that is disengaged and disenfranchised.”

And here’s retiring Rep. TOM SUOZZI, whose seat flipped to Republican GEORGE SANTOS: “Ignoring voters’ safety concerns is both bad public policy and bad politics that resulted in multiple avoidable losses that will have a very negative effect on not just New York, but as it turns out, the country’s balance of power.”

ALL GOOD IN THE GARDEN STATE — “After a traumatic 2021, New Jersey Democrats breathing easier after Tuesday's results,” by Matt Friedman

THE WHITE HOUSE

BIDEN’S VICTORY LAP — Biden got his chance to trumpet his party’s better-than-expected midterm results as he hosted a news conference at the White House on Wednesday evening. Though the balance of the House and Senate remained unclear, Biden was buoyed by a slate of candidates who outperformed polling and historic expectations. “While any seat lost is painful,” Biden said on Wednesday, “Democrats had a good night.” He was also sure to take a swipe at the “press and the pundits” who predicted a red wave that “didn’t happen.” But he also acknowledged that Democrats didn’t win everywhere, noting that voters “were also clear that they are still frustrated.”

And a presidential presser is something of a rarity, so reporters took the opportunity to ask Biden about a range of topics. Here’s some highlights:

• On Ukraine funding with a potential GOP majority: “I would be surprised if Leader McCarthy even has a majority of his Republican colleagues who say they’re not going to fund the legitimate defensive needs in Ukraine.”
• On the Russian imprisonment of WNBA star BRITTNEY GRINER: “I’m hopeful now that our election is over, there’s a willingness to negotiate more specifically.”
• On whether he will run again in 2024: “Our intention is to run again. That’s been our intention, regardless of what the outcome of this election was.”
• On whether Trump or DeSantis would be a tougher 2024 opponent: “It’ll be fun watching them take on each other.”
• On whether ELON MUSK is a threat to U.S. national security: “I think that Elon Musk’s cooperation and/or technical relationships with other countries is worthy of being looked at. Whether or not he is doing anything inappropriate, I’m not suggesting that.”

2024 WATCH

THE FRONTRUNNER IN WAITING — Some of Trump’s closest allies are telling the former president that he should delay a planned 2024 reelection bid announcement that he has set for next week as the party sifts through the fallout from Election Day and the red wave that never hit. WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Isaac Stanley-Becker report that Trump has been “polling advisers for their opinions but had not made up his mind. But in a Fox News interview Wednesday evening, he cast doubt on a delay, saying, ‘We had tremendous success. Why would anything change?’” One of the primary concerns is the looming Georgia Senate runoff scheduled for Dec. 6, and how Trump’s official reemergence would impact the race.

— And despite the intense finger-pointing that has ensued in the hours following the election, NYT’s Michael Bender and Maggie Haberman write that “Trump has built a deep well of loyalty with Republican voters, and party officials cautioned that it was too soon to tell whether he would suffer any lasting political damage beyond a flurry of bad headlines, or whether a rival will emerge to challenge him.”

Indeed, our colleagues David Siders and Meridith McGraw report that even “Republicans critical of the former president were resigning themselves to another reality: they may be stuck with Trump anyway in 2024.”

WILL THEY, WON’T THEY — As Republicans pick up the pieces and turn to the next election cycle, the onus is now on all of Trump’s would-be 2024 rivals, who up until now have been able to hide behind the midterms in raising money to help themselves or others win key elections and traveling to key states to help other candidates. But that cover is gone now, and the field has to decide whether they’re really going to challenge the former president. Our colleague Alex Isenstadt breaks down the major questions that each potential contender has to answer as they wrestle with the 2024 decision.

— Speaking of … Perhaps the most likely of the bunch to launch a challenge to Trump is Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS. But when that might come is an open question. CNN’s Steve Contorno reports that “several consultants in Florida say DeSantis likely won’t formally jump into the presidential field until after state lawmakers meet for their annual legislative session. That would put DeSantis on a timeline of a May or June announcement.”

— And for the record … Outgoing Maryland GOP Gov. LARRY HOGANtold CBS’ Robert Costa that he’s considering a 2024 bid following Tuesday night’s election results: “I felt like I was on a lifeboat all by myself … with everybody on the Trump Titanic. Now, we need a bigger boat.”

BACK ’N’ BLUE — Democrats’ blue wall is back. “As Democrats secured key electoral and historic victories up and down the ballot in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they shored up their position in the Rust Belt ahead of 2024, rebuilding the so-called blue wall states that Donald Trump won in 2016,” Adam Wren writes. The kicker: “If the dismantling of the blue wall states came at Trump’s own hand in 2016, so too did its reconstruction this week, as Democrats handily ousted candidates endorsed by the former president.”

TRUMP CARDS

TOP-ED — Former VP MIKE PENCE pens an op-ed for WSJ, titled “My Last Days With Donald Trump,” excerpted from his forthcoming book, “So Help Me God” ($35). Perhaps the most pertinent passage that makes you ponder what might have been is the first one: “Thirteen days after the 2020 election, I had lunch with President Trump. I told him that if his legal challenges came up short, he could simply accept the results, move forward with the transition, and start a political comeback, winning the Senate runoffs in Georgia, the 2021 Virginia governor’s race, and the House and Senate in 2022. Then he could run for president in 2024 and win. He seemed unmoved, even weary: ‘I don’t know, 2024 is so far off.’”

SOME THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND — “6 reasons why Trump’s already bad legal troubles are about to get worse,” by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court Closely Divided in Case on Native American Adoptions,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak: “The Supreme Court heard more than three hours of arguments on Wednesday in a sprawling challenge to the constitutionality of the Indian Child Welfare Act of 1978, which makes it hard to remove Native American children from their tribes and heritage. The decision in the four consolidated cases could have profound implications for the status of Native Americans in areas far beyond family law. Judging by the justices’ questioning, there was a fair prospect that the court would strike down at least part of the law.”

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Couple who tried to sell nuclear secrets receive long prison terms,” by WaPo’s Salvador Rizzo

POLICY CORNER

SBF FALLOUT — “A crypto titan dumped millions into the midterms, then lost a fortune,” by Sam Sutton: “The crisis has demolished SAM BANKMAN-FRIED’s public image as a go-to resource for policymakers writing rules for crypto.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. Releases 9/11 Commission Interview With George W. Bush, Dick Cheney,” by WSJ’s Dustin Volz and Warren Strobel: “The April 2004 interview with the bipartisan 9/11 commission, which took place in the Oval Office, included discussion of intelligence warnings before the attacks and the events that unfolded on the day of Sept. 11, according to the copy of the 31-page document. It also describes [former President GEORGE W.] BUSH acknowledging that Air Force One had poor communications while he was on the plane shortly after the attacks began — and Mr. Bush’s assertion that he gave [former VP DICK] CHENEY the authority to shoot down commercial airliners that were unresponsive.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

LATEST ON KHERSON — “Zelensky and U.S. officials express skepticism over Russia’s decision on Kherson” by NYT’s Dan Bilefsky, Marc Santora, Andrew Kramer and Ivan Nechepurenko: “SERGEI K. SHOIGU, Russia’s defense minister, announced the decision [to withdraw forces from Kherson] on Wednesday in a televised meeting with the military’s top brass. Gen. SERGEI SUROVIKIN, the commander for Russia’s forces in Ukraine, told Mr. Shoigu … that a withdrawal would ‘preserve lives of servicemen and combat readiness of forces.’ The reactions from Washington and Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, cautioned that it was too soon to tell how widespread the withdrawal was and what Russia’s intentions were.”

— “U.S. Refuses Advanced Drones for Ukraine to Avoid Escalation With Russia,”  WSJ’s Gordon Lubold and Nancy Youssef scoop. “The Biden administration won’t give Ukraine advanced drones despite pleas from Kyiv and a bipartisan group of members of Congress, a reflection of the limit of the kinds of weaponry Washington is willing to provide for Ukraine’s defense.”

MUSK READS

TRUST ME — “Courting advertisers, Musk says the ‘buck stops with me,’” by Rebecca Kern: “In a wide-ranging virtual Twitter Spaces call that drew more than 84,000 listeners, [ELON] MUSK said he wanted the platform to be ‘as inclusive as possible,’ reiterating a broad commitment to moderation and plans to set up an outside council that would help make decisions about what kind of content is allowed on the site.”

BIRDWATCHING — “How Twitter’s contentious new fact-checking project really works,” by WaPo’s Taylor Lorenz, Will Oremus and Jeremy Merrill: “Birdwatch takes a Wikipedia-like approach to fact-checking that relies on a consensus of highly engaged amateurs rather than professional journalists or content moderators to decide which tweets deserve debunkings or could benefit from added context.”

John Fetterman is going to fit right in at the Capitol.

The guy who threw a White Claw can at Ted Cruz said he didn’t want to hurt the senator — he wanted Cruz to chug it.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Vikrum Aiyer is joining Heirloom Carbon as their top public policy chief. He most recently was deputy director in the ACLU’s national political department and is an alum of Postmates/Uber and the Obama White House and Commerce Department.

MAJOR SCHUMER SHOP SHAKEUP — Justin Goodman will depart as comms director for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Nov. 15, completing a long-planned transition after four years in the top post. Alex Nguyen, who is currently Schumer’s national press secretary, will take over as comms director, and senior press secretary Allison Biasotti will become national press secretary.

TRANSITIONS —  Grace Davis is now comms director for Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.). She previously was special assistant to the president at Alliance Defending Freedom. … Curtis Eichelberger is now a senior manager for policy comms at Amazon. He most recently was senior correspondent for M&A antitrust at MLex Market Insight and is also a Bloomberg alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) … the White House’s Robyn Patterson … Washington Examiner’s Tiana Lowe … NPR’s Sue Davis ... WaPo’s Mary Jordan and Ben Pauker … Amanda Ashley Keating of FGS Global … Geoff Brewer of Gallup … Elizabeth Greener … Kate Gould of Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-Calif.) office … LaRonda Peterson … Florida International University’s Carlos Becerra … POLITICO’s Jeff Daker and Declan Harty … CBS’ Alan He … Jennifer Curley of Curley Company … ABC’s Josh Margolin … Misty Marshall of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) office … Brian Romick … Andy Blomme of NeighborWorks America … Andrew Mims … Blake Deeley … Miranda Lilla … Zachary Enos … Tom Cosgrove … former Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) … former Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas) … The Herald Group’s Carla Picasso … Jim Kuhnhenn of WaVe Communications

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