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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

The full scale of the Republican defeat on Tuesday is starting to become clearer.

Not only will the Democrats keep control of the Senate — and perhaps expand it by a single vote — it is still possible that Democrats will retain the House.

We wouldn’t call it a blue wave, but it’s the most impressive midterm showing for an incumbent president since 2002, when GEORGE W. BUSH was in the White House and Republicans gained eight House seats and two Senate seats.

But President JOE BIDEN’s approval rating on Tuesday averaged 41%,per FiveThirtyEight. And 72% of Americans said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

Voters looked at the alternative to Bidenism — and they chose to stick with the president and his party.

Nevada was called for Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO on Saturday night. Some food for thought about what this means:

— Judges. Biden can now continue to fill the federal bench with his people. The judiciary has become more and more of a roadblock for Democrats, so Senate control means they have a better chance at protecting their major legislative achievements.

Biden has matched Trump’s pace of confirmations so far. Both presidents confirmed 84 judges through early November of their second year in office, which beats the pace of BARACK OBAMA (43), Bush (80), GEORGE H.W. BUSH (71) and RONALD REAGAN (83), but not BILL CLINTON (143). The GOP kept the Senate in the blue wave year of 2018 and it allowed Trump to keep up his pace. Biden will now have a chance to fill the 10% of the judiciary that remains vacant with his choices and partially offset Trump’s judicial legacy.

“You won't have another MERRICK GARLAND moment for the next two years so long as [Majority Leader CHUCK] SCHUMER is in control,” noted one Democratic operative.

— Executive branch nominees. With little danger of Republicans blocking them, Biden will have far more room to fill his government with his choices. That leeway will also likely mean more of a push from the left when it comes to the next Treasury secretary and other important positions.

Nominees who have been stuck in limbo, like ERIC GARCETTI, Biden’s nominee to be ambassador to India, may now cruise through the Senate.

— Investigations. Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) was preparing high-profile hearings about HUNTER BIDEN. Other GOP senators were getting ready to fire off subpoenas on a host of Biden administration issues. Those inquiries are now dead — at least in the Senate.

— Georgia. The Nevada victory also changes the dynamics of the Georgia runoff on Dec. 6. Georgia will no longer determine control of the Senate. Instead, it will determine whether the Senate remains 50-50 with VP KAMALA HARRIS giving Democrats their majority and moderates like JOE MANCHIN exercising tacit control, or whether Democrats stretch into a 51-49 majority that moves the balance of power to the left.

With Senate control off the table, Republicans could also find it difficult to motivate GOP voters. The argument for the importance of HERSCHEL WALKER’s election has been neutered.

If Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK beats Walker, Senate committees will no longer be evenly split. “You would actually have Dem control/majority on committees,” said the Democratic operative, “meaning no nominees or bills being deadlocked in committee.” That will speed things up — because ties in committee require discharge votes on the Senate floor — and allow the pace of judicial nominations to quicken.

— McConnell. Losing the Senate has largely been placed at Trump’s feet. He saddled the party with Walker and MEHMET OZ and BLAKE MASTERS. He is more unpopular than Biden, and yet made himself a central character of 2022. His scandals, criminal investigations, election denialism and constant threats to announce his presidential campaign kept him in the news, abetting the Democratic strategy of turning 2022 into a choice rather than a referendum.

But Nevada can’t be blamed solely on Trump.ADAM LAXALT was Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL’s choice, and his loss will give ammunition to the MAGA wing of the party that feels it is taking too much of the blame for Tuesday’s poor showing.

“It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault,”Trump said this morning.

— 2024. The Senate map in two years favors Republicans. By keeping control of the Senate and possibly expanding it by one vote, Democrats start the next cycle in a much more advantageous position. There is no longer any talk that the GOP could get to a filibuster-proof 60 votes in 2024. And as majority leader, Schumer will have the power to protect his vulnerable incumbents and keep them from unpopular votes that they might have been forced to take in a McConnell-led Senate.

Finally, it is still possible that the Democrats could keep the House.Check out Steve Shepard’s rundown on how that could happen. While we are not predicting that outcome, you should adjust your expectations about this possibility.

Election Day always gives us an incomplete picture. But so far, the results continue to head in one direction: Democrats had a much better night than we all first understood.

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Speaker NANCY PELOSI on decisions about her political future, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “What we want to do is go forward in a very unified way, as we go forward to prepare for the Congress at hand and then, after some respite, get ready for the next election. … A great deal is at stake, because we will be in a presidential election. So, my decision will then be rooted in the wishes of my family and the wishes of my caucus.”

On when she will make a decision about running for leadership: “I’m not asking anybody for everything. People are campaigning. And that’s a beautiful thing. And I’m not asking anyone for anything. My members are asking me to consider doing that. But, again, let’s just get through the election.” More from Olivia Olander

— White House adviser ANITA DUNN on the lame-duck Congress, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “Lame-duck priorities will certainly include additional funding for Ukraine, which has been — and the president has said he hopes will continue to be — a bipartisan issue in the United States Congress. You know, obviously, emergency funding for the natural disasters that Florida and Puerto Rico suffered earlier this year and additional priorities for the administration as well. But keeping the government open and running is the number one priority.”

On Republicans’ plans to investigate the Biden administration and the Biden family: “The president is going to be focused on the priorities of the American people. And we would hope that the Republicans who’ve just suffered a substantial defeat in terms of both their expectations and what historically midterm elections tend to do, would also listen to the American people.”

On Congress lifting the debt limit: “It should be bipartisan. … [W]e would expect that Congress would do the right thing and lift the debt limit either now or early next year.”

— Sen. BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) on whether he blames Trump for Republicans’ midterm struggles, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “Those that were most closely aligned with the past, those are the ones that underperformed. We as a party need to have a debate about ideas.”

On whether he will support McConnell for Senate minority leader: “I’m actually going to support Mitch. I think Mitch kind of pulled the chestnuts out of the fire for candidates who, for whatever reason, were having a difficult time raising the money that, as you pointed out, was required to have a winning campaign. … We’re not a cult. We’re not like, ‘OK, there’s one person who leads our party.’ If we have a sitting president, she or he will be the leader of our party, but we should be a party of ideas and principles. And that's what should lead us.”

Asked if he would support Trump as the Republican presidential nominee in 2024: “Our party should be about the future. I think our next candidate will be looking to the future, not to the past, and I think our next candidate will win. And so I anticipate supporting a candidate that is looking to the future.”

— Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER on whether she’ll support Biden in 2024, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “He has said he intends to run, and he will have my support. I have pledged that to him.”

On whether she would consider a presidential run: “I feel really lucky to be the governor of Michigan. I have lived here my whole life. And this is where my focus is for the next four years.” More from Olivia

— Pennsylvania Gov.-elect JOSH SHAPIRO on whether his win is a rubric for Democrats, on “State of the Union”: “I think it’s just a matter of showing up, treating people with respect, and showing them how you're going to make their lives better, helping them understand how you can actually build a bridge between the parties to kind of take down the temperature and get real things done.”

On whether he has presidential ambitions: “I have an ambition to get a little bit of sleep, to reintroduce myself to my kids, and then to serve the good people of Pennsylvania as their governor. That is all I'm focused on. And that's all I want to do.”

— Outgoing Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN on Trump’s influence on the Republican Party after the midterms, on “State of the Union”: “Well, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. And Donald Trump kept saying we’re going to be winning so much, we will get tired of winning. I’m tired of losing. I mean, that's all he's done.”

On whether he’s interested in running for president in 2024: “I have been saying since 2020 that we have to get back to a party that appeals to more people, that can win in tough places, like I have done in Maryland. And I think that lane is much wider now than it was a week ago.” More from Olivia

— Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.) on whether he supports KEVIN McCARTHY for GOP leader, on “Fox News Sunday”: “We need someone like him who can pull the conference together. That being said, rank-and-file members want more of an opportunity, more of a seat at the table. They want to be heard. And when it comes to how complicated and challenging these next two years will be to get anything done, we need to listen to members all over the country.”

On whether he will support a Trump reelection bid: “I believe that Donald Trump is a very effective president for our country. I believe he could be a very effective president for our country. Again, I’ll save my endorsement for another place and time for the 2024 race. I’m focused wholly on what happened on Tuesday and how our party moves forward on Capitol Hill.”

But, that “another place and time” may be sooner than later … NYT’s Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT): “A source close to Banks says he’s planning on putting out an official endorsement of Trump after Trump’s announcement Tuesday.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

Analysis of what just happened (nationally) …

• Matthew Continetti in Washington Free Beacon: “Understanding the Underwhelming GOP Performance”
• Ezra Klein in NYT: “Three Theories That Explain This Strange Moment”
• Dan Balz in WaPo: “In election 2022, the party of Trump pays for being the party of Trump”
• Peggy Noonan in WSJ: “Maybe Republicans Will Finally Learn”
• Sohrab Ahmari in NYT: “Why the Red Wave Didn’t Materialize”
• Eric Levitz in N.Y. Mag: “David Shor’s (Premature) Autopsy of the 2022 Midterm Elections”

What just happened (state level) …

• Mich. — Nancy Kaffer in the Detroit Free Press: “Pollsters reveal how GOP tactics backfired in Michigan”
• Ga. — Patricia Murphy in the Atlanta Journal Constitution: “In Stacey Abrams’ shadow, the Democratic bench got walloped”
• Colo. — Krista Kafer in the Denver Post: “Colorado Republicans are getting washed out by a blue tide, with no signs of ebbing”
• Fla. — The Miami Herald Editorial Board: “Florida’s purple reign is over. After midterm elections, it’s solidly MAGA red”
• Wis. — WisPolitics: “Analysis: Dem gains in Dane, WOW counties in guv race make up for drop in rural support”

What happens next …

• Elizabeth Warren in NYT: “Democrats Just Held the Senate. Here’s What We Do Next.”
• James Oliphant in Reuters: “Ron DeSantis' big election night shakes 2024 White House field”
• Ross Douthat in NYT: “Did Ron DeSantis Just Become the 2024 Republican Front-Runner?”
• EJ Dionne in WaPo: “Forget DeSantis. Whitmer and Shapiro are defining the future.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

MORE MIDTERMS FALLOUT

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVE — “Voters of color did move to the right — just not at the rates predicted,” by Marissa Martinez

DENIERS GET DENIED — “Trump’s picks to oversee elections in key 2024 battlegrounds all lost,” by Zach Montellaro

— Related read: “Trump’s election conspiracy boosters largely accept their own defeats,” by Heidi Przybyla

2024 WATCH — “Trump Angst Grips Republicans (Again) as 2024 Announcement Looms,” by NYT’s Lisa Lerer and Reid Epstein: “Already, some [Democrats] are looking beyond [the Georgia Senate runoff], dreaming of a 2024 contest that could feature, once again, Mr. Trump at the top of the ticket.”

Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.): “As an American, the idea of another Trump campaign and all of his lies and divisiveness and his efforts to undermine American democracy is an absolute horror show. … On the other hand, I got to say that as a politician who wants to see that no Republican is elected to the White House in 2024, from that perspective, his candidacy is probably a good thing.”

CLICKER — “Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump,” by NYT’s Lazaro Gamio, Alicia Parlapiano, Martín González Gómez and Lauren Leatherby

6 MORE THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. UNDER THE INFLUENCE: “U.S. intelligence report says key gulf ally meddled in American politics,” by WaPo’s John Hudson: “The activities covered in the report, described to The Washington Post by three people who have read it, include illegal and legal attempts to steer U.S. foreign policy in ways favorable to the [United Arab Emirates]. It reveals the UAE’s bid, spanning multiple U.S. administrations, to exploit the vulnerabilities in American governance, including its reliance on campaign contributions, susceptibility to powerful lobbying firms and lax enforcement of disclosure laws intended to guard against interference by foreign governments, these people said.”

2. POLITICO GETS RESULTS: “Customs and Border Protection commissioner resigns,” by Daniel Lippman: “Customs and Border Protection Commissioner CHRIS MAGNUS has resigned, according to a statement from the White House released Saturday evening. Magnus had clashed with immigration officials over how to handle an influx of migrants at the southern border, lost the confidence of his bosses and been asked to resign or be fired, POLITICO reported Friday. …

“POLITICO reported in October that five current administration officials who worked with Magnus said he was unengaged in his job, saying he often failed to attend White House meetings on the situation on the border, badmouthed other agencies to colleagues and superiors, and had not built relationships within CBP and across other immigration agencies to address the influx of migrants at the border.” Read Magnus’ resignation letter … Read Daniel’s October report

3. SETTING THE TABLE: “What it looks like when Biden and Xi try to get along,” by Phelim Kine and Jonathan Lemire in Bali, Indonesia: “White House officials have downplayed expectations for the meeting, one that is not expected to produce many deliverables. There are no plans for the two leaders to appear at a customary news conference after the summit, per officials, and even a post-meeting joint statement is unlikely. The administration’s stated objective of using the meeting to ‘build a floor for the relationship’ is a candid admission of how dire that relationship is.”

4. DEPT. OF EXPECTATION SETTING: “G-20 Discord Likely to Thwart Efforts to Boost Sagging Global Economy,” by WSJ’s Jason Douglas and Andrew Duehren

5. MUSK READ: “Twitter’s Advertising Exodus Accelerates, Despite Outreach From Elon Musk,” by WSJ’s Suzanne Vranica and Patience Haggin

6. WAR IN UKRAINE: “Kyiv Power Cuts Bring Cold Food, Scheduled Vacuuming, Struggling Businesses,” by WSJ’s Ian Lovett and Nikita Nikolaienko

Tiffany Trumpgot married at Mar-a-Lago.

Dolly Partonwon a $100 million philanthropy award from Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez.

Ed Markey and Elon Muskgot into it on Twitter.

SPOTTED: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff dining at Cafe Milano on Saturday night. Pic

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the National Portrait Gallery’s Portrait of a Nation gala on Saturday night honoring José Andrés, Clive Davis, Ava DuVernay, Marian Wright Edelman, Tony Fauci, Serena Williams and Venus Williams, and which featured a performance by Wynton Marsalis: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Doug Emhoff, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Tanya Mayorkas, Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez, Hillary Clinton, Laurene Powell Jobs, David Rubenstein, Mellody Hobson, Kim Sajet, Susanna Quinn, Spencer Garrett, Stuart Holliday, Lonnie Bunch, Bret and Amy Baier, Dana Bash and Spencer Garrett, Jeff Goldberg, Don Lemon and Tim Malone, Norah O’Donnell, Phil Rucker, Symone Sanders-Townsend, Steve and Jean Case, Alan Fleischmann,Rickie Niceta, Tammy Haddad, Sophia Narrett, Jay Carney, Elaine Chao, Stephanie Cutter, Karen Knutson, Ryan Williams, Mitch Landrieu and John McCarthy.

— The Richard Nixon Foundation held its inaugural Grand Strategy Summit: American Leadership in the 21st Century on Thursday and Friday. Featured speakers included: Henry Kissinger, Robert O’Brien, Hugh Hewitt, Bill Barr, Newt Gingrich, Morgan Ortagus, Matthew Pottinger, Ken Adelman and more. SPOTTED: Tricia Nixon Cox and Ed Cox, Elbridge Colby, Keith Urbahn, Kerri Kupec and Michael Pillsbury.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Maddie Milam, of Edison Electric Institute and a John Boehner alum, and Patrick Stewart, of Red Oak Strategies and an RNC and Iowa GOP alum, got married on Saturday in Biloxi, Miss., in a black tie affair at the Ohr-O’Keefe Museum of Art. The two met at the Texas Inaugural Ball in January 2017. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED:Mark and Ashlee Stephenson, Conor Maguire, Ryan and Katie Gough, Derek and Alex Flowers, Brian and Kate Parnitzke, Hunter Hall, Billy McBeth, Grant Gardner, Hooff Cooksey, Olivia Perez-Cubas, Liam and Ashley O’Rourke and Chad Olsen.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: AG Merrick Garland (7-0) … Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) … Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and first lady Cecilia Abbott … Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker … Max Miller … Joe Cirincione … CNN’s Eric Bradner … POLITICO’s Sue Allan and Hannah Farrow … WSJ’s Ming Li … Ken Rudin … Geoff Freeman of the U.S. Travel Association … Jon Wadsworth of Atlas Advocacy … Jared Leopold … Jared Parks of the Herald Group … Zach Gillan of S-3 Group … Washington Times’ Seth McLaughlin … Martha McKenna … Addie Whisenant … Jonathan Topaz … Todd Priest of Todd Priest & Associates … Ayaan Hirsi Ali … Harry Hurt III … Will Mascaro of Rep. David Joyce’s (R-Ohio) office

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: Saturday’s Playbook misidentified the state where Adrian Fontes is projected to be elected secretary of state. He ran in Arizona against Republican Mark Finchem. It also mischaracterized a quote by Sen. Amy Klobuchar. In an NPR interview, she referred to a “blue wave” of Democratic legislation under President Joe Biden.